November retail sales data released at 8:30 a.m. … Senate Banking disaster recovery aid hearing at 10 a.m. … Federal Open Market Committee releases post-meeting statement at 2 p.m. … Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 p.m. FED WATCH — — FED MEETS AMID FASTER INFLATION — NYT's Jeanna Smialek: "Federal Reserve officials, worried about rising costs and buoyed by a healing labor market, are pivoting from bolstering the economic recovery to more quickly withdrawing the support that has aided the economy since the pandemic began. The policymakers, who meet this week for their final gathering of 2021, are widely expected to outline a faster end to their bond-buying campaign and will telegraph how aggressively they expect to raise rates from rock-bottom next year. The potential for major policy signals at the Fed's meeting, which concludes at 2 p.m. on Wednesday, will make it one of the most closely watched of the pandemic era." But will the Fed break its vow on jobs? — Reuters' Ann Saphir: "With the Federal Reserve expected to soon adopt an inflation-fighting posture, it might seem at a glance as though the U.S. central bank will have to jettison its goal of broad and inclusive full employment barely a year after rolling it out. The reality, though, is more nuanced ..." —#EconTwitter food for thought : Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro, wonders what would happen if the Fed aggressively raised interest rates but inflation falls next year on its own as markets and forecasters widely expect. "The market tells us, nothing good. The nominal neutral rate would drop to very low levels … That would be disastrous for the U.S. economy." He concludes the Fed "is better off being patient and tolerate some higher inflation now in exchange for a better future." FDIC'S MCWILLIAMS BLOCKS BID BY BOARD DEMOCRATS TO UNDERCUT HER — Our Victoria Guida: "Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Jelena McWilliams on Tuesday fought off an effort by Democratic board members at the bank regulator to circumvent her power, but the battle is not over." McWilliams rejected a motion by CFPB Director Rohit Chopra to add to the board's minutes a recorded vote on a request for information, or RFI, about the bank merger approval process, saying the FDIC's legal division determined the vote was not valid. —Chopra in a statement after the meeting said "we must resolve this matter immediately," while Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu raised concerns "that legal or procedural quicksand may ultimately limit our ability to act on this issue in a timely manner." —Here's more from Victoria, on the sequence of events: Chopra says FDIC staff did not provide technical or legal input by the deadline the Democrats requested: "Hours before the voting period closed, we received a last minute 'alternative' to the Request for Information with a series of strings attached. It was wholly unacceptable and was clearly a tactic to delay action on anything related to President Biden's request." Senior FDIC officials disputed Chopra's characterization of the timeline. They said McWilliams on Nov. 16 said staff was working on a draft that could be ready for consideration by Dec. 6. Shortly thereafter, the Democrats reached out to FDIC staff asking for feedback on their own request for comment while McWilliams was on a long flight. On Nov. 26, a CFPB staffer emailed out their draft request for comment for a notational vote that would close Dec. 6. The general counsel responded that the process wasn't valid, officials said. On Dec. 6, all three Democrats voted, on the same day that the FDIC staff draft was sent out. A CFPB official pushed back on the suggestion that Chopra was not acting in good faith but said the proper, legal response would have been for McWilliams to vote no. —Meanwhile: More than two-dozen consumer, labor and housing advocacy groups urged the Justice Department and financial regulators in a letter this week to hit pause on all bank mergers until guidelines for such unions are strengthened. BIDEN TAPS THOMPSON FOR FULL TERM AS TOP HOUSING REGULATOR — Our Katy O'Donnell: "President Joe Biden will nominate Sandra Thompson, currently the acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, to a full term at the regulator, the White House announced Tuesday. … "The move comes after Thompson allies on the Hill, including House Financial Services Chair Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), urged Biden to keep her at the helm amid reports he planned to replace Thompson this fall. The White House had considered nominating consumer-lending advocate Mike Calhoun to the position." CONGRESS ADVANCES DEBT CEILING INCREASE — Our Jennifer Scholtes and Caitlin Emma: "The measure would increase the debt limit by $2.5 trillion, a sum expected to last into 2023 without the need for another vote to raise the borrowing cap. That would get Democrats through the midterm elections next year before having to hike the ceiling again." OCC'S HSU OFFICIALLY ENDS TRUMP-ERA CRA OVERHAUL — Victoria again: "Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu on Tuesday finalized his move to rescind a Trump-era rule overhauling anti-redlining safeguards under the Community Reinvestment Act, setting the stage for a new effort with other regulators at modernizing the law." BIPARTISAN GROUP OF SENATORS ASK YELLEN FOR CRYPTO CLARITY — A group of bipartisan senators, in a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, is asking the Treasury to issue informal guidance on how it intends to define "broker" under a provision in the infrastructure law that established new reporting requirements for cryptocurrency brokers. The senators, including Republicans Rob Portman, Pat Toomey, Mike Crapo and Cynthia Lummis, and Democrats Mark Warner and Kyrsten Sinema, also said they are prepared to offer legislation to further clarify their intent if necessary. RESEARCH ROOM: WALL STREET'S CARBON FOOTPRINT — The Center for American Progress and Sierra Club released new research Tuesday on the carbon footprint of the U.S. financial sector , which they found is responsible for more carbon emissions than the entire countries of Indonesia, Brazil or Japan. It also lays out steps financial regulators could take to mitigate climate risk in the sector, such as increasing capital requirements or imposing a climate risk surcharge on the biggest banks. —Banking industry reaction: Lauren Anderson, associate general counsel for the Bank Policy Institute, which represents large Wall Street firms, said the report's recommendations "would be a very blunt tool that would only serve to limit legitimate transition financing and push financing out of regulated banks and into the unregulated sector." |
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