Groundhog Day x 641

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Dec 15, 2021 View in browser   By Zi-Ann Lum and Nick Taylor-Vaisey Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Zi-Ann l Follow Politico Canada WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. I'm your host, ZI-ANN LUM with NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY. The economic update is out. Covid cases are up. It's the last three-day sprint before the House rises for the holidays (and 95 percent of January) — that time in the parliamentary calendar where each day feels a week long. We're still waiting for mandate letters, a promised list of proposed retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. and measures to contain community transmissions of Omicron. DRIVING THE DAY THIS FEELS FAMILIAR — A source tells Playbook to expect new border measures today after the topic came up in Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU's meeting with premiers last evening to discuss the Omicron-shaped hole in everyone's holiday plans. 'THIS IS NOT THE MASTER PLAN' — Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND's in-person press conference was derailed by two staffers who tested positive for Covid. As journalists waiting for Freeland's arrival in the Sir John A. Macdonald Building updated each other on Tuesday's programming twist — announced by Freeland in a tweet — an official walked in holding a microphone to share the same news: "As seen on the deputy prime minister's Twitter…" Freeland said she took two PCR tests (both negative). She attended the Cabinet meeting and the press conference virtually and said she contacted Ottawa Public Health, who advised that self-monitoring would suffice. "But I thought about it," Freeland said. "And I just felt, you know, particularly with all the spending here, that I am just closing a fight against Covid, all of the exhortations I am making to Canadians to please get your boosters, use your rapid tests, that the right thing for me to do was to behave with an abundance of caution." — The spending: It's clear from the fiscal update that the Trudeau government is bracing for Omicron-driven economic headwinds. POLITICO's ANDY BLATCHFORD reports for Pro subscribers that more than C$24 billion in new spending has been earmarked over the next three years to fight Covid-19 , giving fiscal chart readers a sense that Covid spending isn't an acute short-term item in government ledgers. An additional C$4.5 billion has been set aside to respond to Omicron. Freeland's economic update is bare bones and sets us up for the meat that's expected in the spring — or in more vague specificity, "probably in early April," according to a senior government official. The priorities, Freeland identified, are climate change, housing, affordability, growth and competitiveness. "These are things we are committed to working on," she said. "But this is not a budget. And it's not a mini budget." Keyword mentions in the not-mini budget: "Covid" — 130 times. "Omicron" — 19 times. "Recovery" — 188 times (h/t WSJ's PAUL VIEIRA). "Inflation" — 69 times. "Deficit" — 18 times. "Transition" — 5 times. — The lookahead : The hope is that Covid will be waning by next winter (2022) or early spring (2023), a senior government official told reporters in the lockup. Because once that happens, more attention can be paid to "structural issues" — housing ("because cities are important for economic growth"), improving supply chain resilience and fighting climate change. That last category, the official said, is inclusive of innovation and building a more sustainable, low-carbon economy. AROUND THE HILL THEN AND NOW — The House of Commons was a busy chamber on Tuesday, packed to the hilt for QP after a meeting of the full Cabinet. A lockup full of reporters, bureaucrats and analysts across the street busily pored over Freeland's long-awaited fiscal update. Everything was as newly normal as can be. And then that tweet from Freeland about her staff testing positive for Covid and news that she would deliver her fiscal update on an all-too-familiar Zoom call. Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU hastily convened a call among the premiers for 6 ET. It all started to feel like déjà vu. — Back to the future: The whole world learned in March 2020 that everything is normal until it isn't. Several premiers were already in Ottawa for a First Ministers' Meeting on March 12 that was cancelled hours before it got underway. BILL MORNEAU never got to deliver what would have been his last budget. If you worked in Ottawa, you stayed home if you could. Within days, those blockbuster Ottawa events felt like something from a different time. The same question on every Zoom catch-up: "How did we ever think this virus wouldn't cancel everything? How naive!" — The Omicron effect: Less than a month ago — before this new variant had a name —Tory MPs voted against a hybrid sitting format. They stood by centuries-old Westminster principles of parliamentary privilege and government accountability. When the motion passed, a handful of Conservatives steered clear of the chamber for reasons that produced piles of Hill gossip about their vaccination status and what it all meant for ERIN O'TOOLE's prospects. 641 days ago Tuesday, Morneau's 2020 budget was postponed indefinitely. Now there was Freeland, firing up Zoom. On Tuesday evening, Government House Leader MARK HOLLAND told reporters that Liberals would drastically scale back their presence in the Commons, and hold virtual caucus meetings this morning. Back in 2020, then-GHL PABLO RODRIGUEZ and his opposition counterparts showed a united front as they shuttered Parliament. Holland, however, is on his own. The Globe reports the Tories and Bloc both say they'll meet in person at caucus, while the NDP caucus will take the Liberals' approach. — "What fresh hell is this?" That was Trudeau, commenting on Omicron as he strolled the Rideau Hall grounds on Monday with the Toronto Star's SUSAN DELACOURT. HOW TO STAY AHEAD OF THE VIRUS — As the whole country catches up with an Omicron-fueled wave of infections, sports fans are still filling arenas and Canadians are prepping for holiday travel. Playbook asked SABINA VOHRA-MILLER, a health advocate and co-founder of the Vohra-Miller Foundation, how governments — and Canadians — should be responding to the new variant. — How long should governments wait to reduce arena capacities? It's already too late. This should have been done last week. We have to be proactive, not wait until things have gotten out of control. It is so much harder to get things back under control when it's already past that point. If the government says it's okay and safe for these big events to occur, people will think it's a safe activity. This is messaging that has to come from the government, because people who are not necessarily keeping up with the news don't realize that going to a game right now unmasked is not the safest thing to do. — How should families gather during the holidays? I've been recommending to people I know that for the next two weeks leading up to the holidays, they should try to reduce all their contacts and really make sure they're keeping themselves safe, and they may actually be able to have a small holiday gathering with family. It's about saving that risk up to do something that is more meaningful. I'm really concerned about what cases are going to look like after the holidays, given that people are not reducing their contacts and exposures right now. We know people are going to get together during the holidays. And this is going to cause exponential growth. I mean, there's already exponential growth. ISO BACKBONES — Quebec's secularism law is once again polling politicians on their definitions ofs discrimination after FATEMAEH ANVARI, an elementary school teacher in Chelsea, Que., was removed from her classroom because she wears a hijab. The law prohibits public service workers, such as teachers, judges and police officers, from wearing religious symbols. NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH changed his stance on Bill 21 on Tuesday, saying his party would seek intervenor status if the case escalates and is put before the Supreme Court. Singh has previously called the law discriminatory, but when the debate came up during the campaign trail, he leaned toward a wait-and-see-approach. — Present-day Singh says : "I think it's a time to make it clear that if this case gets the federal level that the federal government should support the Quebecers that are opposed to this — should support the three million Quebecers opposed to it and just support those Quebecers who are fighting this discriminatory law in court." DAYS WITH NO DOCS: 50 — The government is edging closer to the two-month mark since Cabinet was sworn in, and still the Prime Minister's Office has made no mention of new mandate letters for ministers. Playbook is counting. HALLWAY CONVERSATION POLITICO's ANDY BLATCHFORD called up ARMINE YALNIZYAN, an economist and Atkinson Fellow on the Future of Workers who sits on the government's Task Force on Women and the Economy. They sorted through the fiscal update. What jumps out at you? This is a look-at-how-well-we-did document. It's pretty much standing pat on what the federal government is doing. There's a few new things. The big new thing is actually moving forward with reconciliation with Indigenous children, making reparations and building systems going forward. Long overdue. But the main event is [the government signaling], "Look, we're dealing with deficits and debts, things will work themselves out, if we don't step on our own toes. We spent what we had to, we're recovering better than the U.S., we're recovering better than we did in response to the 2008 global financial crisis. We got it under control." We're operating in a world of complete unknowns. So, they've got the track they are basing their fiscal outlook on, but they've also got a track that says, "What if growth is slower?" That scenario development is a really important new addition to their kit bag. It basically is saying, "We've got a plan B." What does the document say about where we are in the Covid pandemic? I think that's why they did the scenarios? Nobody knows what's going to happen. What if Omicron is worse than we thought, what if there's something more? Let us do these kinds of scenarios. We don't know what might trigger lower GDP growth than we projected. But let's go through this exercise for every 1 percent drop in GDP, what does that mean? We have some known unknowns, which is that we don't know when the pandemic will be over. It's not over. That's why they parked a good chunk of change for dealing with Omicron. TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will virtually attend the Liberals' national caucus meeting in the morning and question period in the afternoon. At 3:35 p.m. he's meeting with Northwest Territories Premier CAROLINE COCHRANE. (This meeting won't come as a surprise to loyal Playbook readers after we shared news of the meeting and pending child care deal more than a week ago.) The two leaders are expected to make an early child care announcement at 4:45 p.m. with Families Minister KARINA GOULD, Northern Affairs Minister DAN VANDAL and NWT MP MICHAEL MCLEOD. R. J. SIMPSON, the territories' education, culture, and employment minister, will join the announcement virtually. — Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET will be joined by his party's House leader ALAIN THERRIEN, party whip CLAUDE DEBELLEFEUILLE and caucus chair MARIE HÉLÈNE GAUDREAU for a 9:45 a.m. press conference. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will attend his party's national caucus meeting at 9 a.m. and will hold a press conference at 12:30 p.m. — TIFF MACKLEM is beaming into an Empire Club of Canada event to deliver a speech about the Bank of Canada's renewed monetary policy framework. HOUSE BUSINESS FILLING CHAIRS — SALMA ZAHID maintained the chair at citizenship and immigration, KEN MCDONALD returns to head fisheries and oceans, and FRANCIS SCARPALEGGIA is back as chair at environment and sustainable development. JOËL LIGHTBOUND will helm industry — his first chairmanship. EMMANUEL DUBOURG also secured his first chair at veterans affairs. KIRSTY DUNCAN, the former science minister, now heads up the science and tech committee. Tory KAREN VECCHIO will shepherd the work at status of women. Four House committees will elect their chair today: National defence, natural resources, Indigenous and northern affairs and official languages. In the other place, senators on the legal and constitutional affairs committee are scheduled to question one of their own, Sen. PIERRE DALPHOND , over his bill proposing to change the name of the electoral district of Châteauguay–Lacolle to Châteauguay–Les Jardins-de-Napierville. Did someone forward Ottawa Playbook to you today? Are you ready to be a forwarder, not a forwardee? Click here to sign up to this free newsletter. SAVE THE DATE: TRIVIA — Don't make plans for Dec. 21 at 7 p.m. ET. Playbook is whipping up our first-ever virtual trivia night with Outside The Box Trivia. It will be a chance to show off your knowledge of #cdnpoli. RSVP with your team details to Ottawa Playbook. Registration is free. If you've already signed up, we'll send details today. The trivia platform enables you to gather six teammates from all over — you can play and collaborate at the same virtual table, as long as you all have access to WiFi. MEDIA ROOM — KEVIN CARMICHAEL in the Financial Post: "Fiscal policy can do more. Freeland teased this week she's willing to do her share. Proof will come later." — The Associated Press: U.S. Covid death toll hits 800,000, a year into vaccine drive. — The Globe reports: COVID-19 variant Omicron delays return-to-work plans for Canadian companies. — Anishinaabe journalist TANYA TALAGA talks to MICHELLE CYCA of Maclean's: "How many times do we have to tell people this is what happened before they start to listen to us and believe us?" — KATHRYN MAY in Policy Options: How COVID-19 could bring a downtown Ottawa revival. — In the Narwhal, AINSLIE CRUICKSHANK takes stock of B.C.'s readiness for climate emergencies. Spoiler: The news isn't great. PROZONE If you're a Pro subscriber, don't miss our PM Pro Canada memo: Next up: Fresh inflation data. And from ANDY BLATCHFORD: Trudeau government braces for Omicron. In other headlines for Pros: — WTO group aims for digital trade deal by end of 2022. — Granholm calls for U.S. oil industry to hike oil output, invest in clean energy. — NOAA chief: Arctic experiencing 'alarming' climate trends. — EU lawmakers vote to ban online ads targeting children amid broader tech crackdown. — Want to influence Joe Biden? Run ads in a 100-year-old newspaper. PLAYBOOKERS Spotted: U.S. ambassador to Canada DAVID COHEN tapping elbows with Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE. … Former Lornado denizen KELLY CRAFT raising money for Kentucky tornado victims. ... Ottawa Mayor JIM WATSON, reporting in with a negative Covid-19 test. … Amazon's LAURA DAWSON in the random testing line at Pearson. … GOLDY HYDER of the Business Council of Canada in Abu Dhabi. A long fight over RCMP records in which Canada's national library claims an access-to-information request will take 80 years to process — and then lowers the estimate to 65 years ( h/t DEAN BEEBY). New lobbyists: Hill + Knowlton's LAURA GROSMAN is lobbying for Huu-ay-aht First Nation, a Vancouver Island band government that wants to pursue hydropower, fishery revitalization and social infrastructure. … Crestview's BILL ANDERSON is repping the cruise line giant Holland America. … Rubicon's TIM SMITHEMAN signed up for Westshore Terminals, "Canada's busiest coal export terminal." … Clear Strategy's ZOLEIKHA RAHMANI is on the Hill for DoorDash, which is pushing for "well-crafted regulation of the sharing economy." Birthdays: HBD + 1 to L'actualité's ALEC CASTONGUAY and StrategyCorp managing principal LISA SAMSON. ASK US ANYTHING What are you hearing that you need Playbook to know? Any questions about the next session of Parliament? Send it all our way. TRIVIA Tuesday's answer: AUNG SAN SUU KYI had her honorary citizenship revoked in 2018. Props LIAM DALY, ELIZABETH BURN, RYAN HAMILTON, HARRY McKONE, ALAN KAN, BEN ROTH, SHEILA GERVAIS, BRAM ABRAMSON, SEBASTIAN COOPER, JOHN GUOBA, ROBERT McDOUGALL, CULLY ROBINSON, DOROTHY McCABE and PATRICK DION who noted, "had Politico asked who has been stripped of their Order of Canada, that's a long list." Wednesday's question: Name Ontario's official bird. For bonus marks, tell us one more thing about it. Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Have a petition you want signed? A cause you're promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Alejandra Waase to find out how: awaase@politico.com. Playbook wouldn't happen without Luiza Ch. Savage, editor Sue Allan and Andy Blatchford.   Follow us on Twitter Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Andy Blatchford @AndyBlatchford Maura Forrest @MauraForrest Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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