For D.C. Democrats, a silver lining in the Golden State

Jeremy B. White and Lara Korte's must-read briefing on politics and government in the Golden State

Apr 06, 2022 View in browser   By Lara Korte, Jeremy B. White, Chris Ramirez and Juhi Doshi THE BUZZ — THROW MONEY AT IT? Conventional wisdom (and recent polling) tells us that this year will be a tough one for congressional Democrats. But if there's one place the party can still look to for a glimmer of hope, it's deep blue California. Last week, the House Majority PAC, congressional Democrats' main political committee, spent $102 million on broadcast and digital buys in 51 markets across the country, including nearly $12.2 million in five California markets: Bakersfield, Fresno, Los Angeles, San Diego and Sacramento. In total, it's more money than the PAC dropped at the start of previous cycles, which one could read as the Democrats panicking to get ahead of a potential midterm massacre. (The NRCC certainly took it that way.) But in California specifically, the Democrats are taking a tone of optimism — and, dare we say, confidence? Abby Curran Horrell, the executive director of the House Majority PAC, called California a "jackpot" in an interview with The New York Times, noting that the political slant of several Republican-held districts has shifted left following redistricting, including those of Reps. Mike Garcia, David Valadao and Michelle Steel. The Cook Partisan Voting Index has those seats listed as tossups. We can also expect an open CA-13 to skew heavily Democratic this fall. The party does have to defend Reps. Katie Porter and Mike Levin in November. To be fair, however, even those defensive districts lean Democrat, per the Cook. The big question underlying all of thisis whether victory in California will keep Democrats and Speaker Nancy Pelosi in a position of power heading into the Biden administration's third year. Best case scenario for Democrats: California representatives all keep their seats and add four more. But between the departure of some 28 Democratic House members and the tough odds in dozens more districts across the country, any wins in the Golden State will likely be a small comfort. Republicans will have abundant money to try and win their races: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy announced he'd piled up $31.5 million in the first quarter to get to $104 million so far this cycle — which his team called a record — as the Bakersfield Republican looks to pick up enough seats to become speaker. SPEAKING OF ELECTIONS: Early special Assembly election results out of Los Angeles and San Diego have David Alvarez leading Georgette Gómez in the vacant AD-80 and Robert Pullen-Miles outpolling Tina Simone McKinnor in the open AD-62 — setting us up for a June rematch after outside interests spent well over $1 million to determine which Democrat will prevail. On the House side, Connie Conway led the field vying to fill the rest of former Rep. Devin Nunes' term before the now-red seat is set to become much bluer. See the House special election results here. BUENOS DÍAS, good Wednesday morning. Should voters in cities like San Francisco and Oakland be allowed to continue electing leaders via ranked-choice voting? That's at stake today as legislation to prohibit the practice is set to get its first vote in Assembly Elections, with Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf among its opponents. Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up jwhite@politico.com and lkorte@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte.  QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I expect to get attacked if I go on Fox News. I don't expect to get attacked by a fox." Rep. Ami Bera on being the victim of a Capitol Fox attack (it also got our D.C. colleague). TWEET OF THE DAY: State @SenBobHertzberg after his gun control bill passed the judiciary committee on Tuesday. "From the steps [of the Capitol] you can see the site of the worst mass shooting in Sacramento's history. It's a constant reminder for us that lives are at stake every single day we fail to get this done." WHERE'S GAVIN? On vacation with his family in Central and South America until April 12.   DON'T MISS ANYTHING FROM THE 2022 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO is excited to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage and insights from the 25th annual Global Conference. This year's event, May 1-4, brings together more than 3,000 of the world's most influential leaders, including 700+ speakers representing more than 80 countries. "Celebrating the Power of Connection" is this year's theme, setting the stage to connect influencers with the resources to change the world with leading experts and thinkers whose insight and creativity can implement that change. Whether you're attending in person or following along from somewhere else in the world, keep up with this year's conference with POLITICO's special edition "Global Insider" so you don't miss a beat. Subscribe today.     Top Talkers DEADLY DELAYS — "Help or handcuff? LAPD officers often delay providing medical aid after shooting people," by the LA Times' Kevin Rector: "Officers who did not provide aid — pressure on the wound, CPR or other measures — after some shootings were not punished, despite a department policy requiring them to assist those injured if they are able, according to the review" IT'S ALREADY HERE — "Report to California Legislature: Prepare for sweeping effects of climate change, " by CalMatters' Rachel Becker and Julie Cart: "Technologies and other solutions already exist to reduce greenhouse gasses from fossil fuels and other sources and prevent more irreversible harm, according to a landmark international scientific report released Monday." — " Suspect in Sacramento mass shooting was out of prison despite 10-year term," by the Sac Bee's Sam Stanton: "Despite a two-page letter to the Board of Parole Hearings urging that [Allen Martin] remain in custody, he won his release and was in Sacramento on Saturday night recording himself on a Facebook Live video brandishing a handgun hours before the shooting." — " Gun in Sacramento shooting was converted into automatic weapon for maximum firepower," by the LA Times' Richard Winton: "When the gunfire was over, 18 people had been wounded, six fatally." CAMPAIGN MODE — "Ballot measure would tax California's wealthiest residents to fund efforts curbing wildfires and smoke," by the SF Chronicle's Kurtis Alexander: "The initiative, which the organizers expect to qualify for the Nov. 8 election this month, would generate an estimated $3 billion to 4.5 billion annually for the cause through at least 2033, according to the state Legislative Analyst's Office." CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR DO MORE — "The world is running out to time to blunt climate change. Where's the urgency?" by the LA Times Editorial Board: "The barriers are entirely political at this point, maintained by politicians and the fossil fuel interests they prop up." CONTEXT — "Paranoia and mash-up of conspiracy theories gripped surf instructor before child killings," by the San Diego Union-Tribune's Kristina Davis: "If the attorneys do [plead insanity], they have an incredibly high legal burden and must prove that [he] was unable to appreciate the nature and quality or wrongfulness of his acts as a result of a severe mental disease." WASHED AWAY — "Committee guts proposal to eliminate California water quality regulator, " by POLITICO's Colby Bermel: "The bill now only contains provisions directing the state to study water policy." AGAINST THE PACK — "Wolves force California ranchers into deadly compromises," by the SFGATE's Ashley Harrell: "If this were any other state, the solution would be easy: Either government agents or ranchers could kill him. But of all the states where wolves live, California offers the strongest legal protections to its wolves, and the fewest resources to its ranchers." SHOWING SUPPORT — "California's new benefits for undocumented immigrants are not enough, workers say, " by CalMatters' Melissa Montalvo: "The report, released Thursday, argues that undocumented workers play a key role in California's economy, contributing an estimated $3.7 billion in annual state and local tax revenues." CAUGHT RED HANDED — " SF's Environmental Agency Under Scrutiny After Director Asked Recology for $25K While Awarding Lucrative Trash Contract," by the SF Standard's Michael Barba: "In addition to working closely with Recology to reduce waste, the department is largely funded by the rates San Franciscans pay the firm for trash collection. The department also plays a role in the process for setting Recology's rates."   INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR MORNING TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED:  Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.     BIDEN, HARRIS AND THE HILL CRYPTO CONFLICTS — Senate committee disses California's big cryptocurrency push, by POLITICO's Susannah Luthi: "The proposal was slated to move next to the Banking and Financial Institutions Committee but is dead if Dodd doesn't allow for its revival later this month." ON PAUSE — "White House to extend student loan pause through August," by the LA Times' Collin Binkley and Zeke Miller: "The action applies to more than 43 million Americans who owe a combined $1.6 trillion in student debt held by the federal government, according to the latest data from the Education Department." TRY AGAIN — "Judges affirm Devin Nunes cannot sue Washington Post over Intelligence Committee article, " by McClatchy's Gillian Brassil: "The lawsuits are two of the 10 that Nunes has filed since 2019 against media companies and critics whom he claims have defamed him." NATIONAL DIVIDE — "Flurry of New Laws Move Blue and Red States Further Apart ," by NYT's Shawn Hubler and Jill Cowan: "No state has been as aggressive as California in shoring up alternatives to the Republican legislation." SILICON VALLEYLAND — "Amazon to Spend Billions on Space Launches as SpaceX Ramps Up Satellite-Internet Service," by the Wall Street Journal's Micah Maidenberg: "The unit of the Seattle-based e-commerce giant hasn't sent up any satellites yet, though it has said it will have two prototypes launched this year." — "If You Can't Beat 'Em, Join 'Em: Will Ride-Hailing Tech Save the Taxi Industry?" by the SF Standard's Kevin Truong.  CANNABIS COUNTRY HARDER HITS — Illegal cannabis growers would be hit with stiffer penalties under California bill, by POLITICO's Alex Nieves and Juhi Doshi: SB 1426 would give district attorneys the leeway to seek misdemeanor or felony charges against marijuana cultivators who are growing at least 50 plants and are found to have stolen groundwater, tapped into water storage infrastructure or polluted a water source. MIXTAPE — "Family plans to sue S.F. police for allegedly detaining, profiling Black seventh-grader," by the SF Chronicle's Megan Cassidy. — "The avian soap opera unfolding atop this Berkeley bell tower has humans riveted," by the LA Times' Jeff Bercovici. — " Strike is over, but Sacramento students must make up lost time — or their schools face penalties," by the Sac Bee's Sawsan Morrar and Alexandra Yoon-Hendricks. — "Two former East Bay MUD employees allege discrimination, " by ABC7's Melanie Woodrow. — "Asian Americans are having 'the talk' about racism for the first time — with their parents," by the LA Times' Jeong Park. CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here. Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you're promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.   Follow us on Twitter Jeremy B. White @JeremyBWhite Lara Korte @lara_korte POLITICO California @politicoca   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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