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Apr 08, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Global Insider

By Ryan Heath

Check out the weekly Global Insider podcast.| Follow Ryan on Twitter.

Watch this: " Swimming Through" by Olympic Swimming Champion Rūta Meilutytė — her stunning contribution to standing up for Ukraine.

Note this: Elon Musk is speaking at a Chinese Embassy space travel event April 9, per an embassy invitation seen by Global Insider. Musk's remarks will be via video at the event hosted by Chinese Ambassador Qin Gang.

 

INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED:  Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.

 
 
Happening Today

GERMANY'S MR NEIN: Chancellor Olaf Scholz is delaying a decision to give Ukraine high-end tanks for its battle against Russia, even as NATO ministers have agreed to supply more advanced weapons.

UKRAINE FRONTS

SUSPENSION THURSDAY: The U.N. voted to suspend Russia from its Human Rights Council: It was a vote that fell into the "necessary but insufficient" category of action. The Philippines was the only large country to switch to supporting the Western viewpoint, compared to previous U.N. votes on Russia's invasion.

U.S. Congress voted overwhelmingly to suspend normal trade relations with Russia and ban the importation of its oil. The House vote followed 100-0 Senate approval.

On the sanctions front, the Biden administration finally went after Russia's two biggest banks.

PREDICTION OF THE DAY — FINNISH NATO MEMBERSHIP: Alexander Stubb, a former prime minister, foreign minister and finance minister of Finland, writes "In the beginning of the war I said that Putin's aggression will drive Finland and Sweden to apply for NATO membership. … Finland will apply within weeks, latest May. Sweden to follow, or at the same time."

AN IRON GENERAL LEADING A STELLAR FORCE: Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, the commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, has orchestrated and led the fight that has left Russian forces bloody, beaten and in a messy retreat. He credited his team in an interview prior to Russia's latest invasion. "These are completely different people — not like us when we were lieutenants. These are new sprouts that will completely change the army in five years. Almost everyone knows a foreign language well, works well with gadgets, they are well-read." More here.

REALITY CHECK — IT'S THE FOOD CRISIS, STUPID! You will hear Global Insider bang this drum all year. If Western governments want the world to punish Russia, they cannot allow millions to face or succumb to starvation as a result of food supply disruptions. As there is no global plan to protect or replace food supply from Russia and Ukraine, there will continue to be no overwhelming global unity against Russia (getting support from only half the world's population at the U.N. is not overwhelming support). More from International Crisis Group's Richard Gowan.

NEW PODCAST EPISODE — A GOOD DAY AT TESLA IS ENOUGH TO FEED THE WORLD 

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Listen to Global Insider podcast

What's worse than seeing, or loving, a mutilated body in Bucha, Ukraine? Sadly, it's the prospect of millions of people starving to death because of the food supply disruptions and price spikes caused by Russia's invasion.

More than a billion people in dozens of countries will be at risk in coming months. Lawrence Haddad, executive director of the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition, explains that our food system is a "house of cards" but it's possible to make it more resilient for little investment.

INTERVIEW — "THE NEW GEOPOLITICAL SUPPLY CHAIN" 

Thierry Breton 's job at the European Commission is to develop and regulate the EU's internal market — but it's a role that has taken him in many unexpected directions. This week he's been in Washington to wish farewell to his departing American vaccine partner Jeff Zients. Why? Because it was Breton who took charge of the EU's Covid vaccine rollout after a bungled start. Now he's working to apply the lessons of securing vaccine supply chains to a wider set of challenges: what he calls "the new geopolitical supply chain."

Over a decided un-French power lunch near the Capitol — 45 minutes, no wine — Breton was a whirlwind of energy. In the telling of this former tech CEO (of the 110,000-strong consulting firm Atos), he's helped birth everything from the EU's new joint defense fund to the much vaunted transatlantic Trade and Technology Council. Breton told Global Insider the TTC was an idea he cooked up with the EU's then Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan to deflect a raging former President Donald Trump at a 2020 meeting in Davos. "I am very pragmatic, I am not a dreamer," he insisted.

But that's not strictly true: It was Breton's fired-up imagination that delivered the first-ever novel about cyber warfare, back in 1984. Soft War sold more than two million copies , a surprise even to the ambitious author, then a 28 year-old computer scientist. "It was the first book ever about a computer virus, I called it a soft bomb. It was still the Cold War and it told how a virus could plug into Soviet Union computer systems, and blow up the Soviet regime."

Four decades later, cybersecurity still keeps him up at night: Breton's latest effort to ward off digital demons is a project creating a European "cybershield" supported by around 5,000 specialists. The point is to spread the best efforts of Europe's strongest cyber defenders to its weakest ones. "The U.S. needs a strong Europe (in order) to have a strong partner," he said. "We take action to protect our borders, and we need to show the same willingness to protect our cyber borders."

Will the world split into regional economic and tech blocs? "It's a risk, but I don't see it happening this way because it will be almost impossible to do everything on our own. Rare earths? They are where they are," he notes.

"But the era where we just buy products or components based on lowest cost is over. There are other (non-financial) costs and you must calculate all of them: CO2, child labor, environmental destruction, everything. To put conditions like that on trade is difficult, but it is the only way" to create supply chains that are both resilient and fair," Breton said.

Being a net exporter is strength: Breton comes at the issue of exports with a different tone to both Trump and Berlin's elite, but he preaches a similar message. "When you are a net exporter, you enhance your strength and you enhance your position" in global political negotiations, because others depend on you, he believes.

Shade for northern Europe: "It's easy to be frugal when you don't have to pay for common defense. Now they're in the 2 percent club (of GDP for defense) they see it is not so easy. Of course they want these payments to not apply when calculating Europe's debt and stability rules. Good luck! Welcome to the club!"

His heart lies with quantum technology: "The most important revolution in front of us is the quantum revolution. It's a totally different way of working. It is not linear: It is much more global, everything interconnected. Quantum technologies will produce quantum effects."

"You can make models of everything: Let's say you take a picture of a tumor, and you model different aspects of interaction between molecules upfront. The image you make can help you understand exactly (what is going on)."

"I want to announce a quantum advisory board by the end of the year. We need to have the infrastructure locally … to carry out quantum encryptions (unhackable) to build quantum sensors. I had a big fight to convince all my fellow European Commissioners, and now the fight is with the Parliament."

Myth busting: "I am European. I am not the French commissioner. I have never received an instruction from my country."

THE DREAMS AND FEARS OF THE EU'S OTHER TOP TECH REGULATORS

Margrethe Vestager , the EU's executive vice president for a Europe Fit for the Digital Age (yes, that's a title), was also in Washington on Thursday. She told Global Insider that the latest set of digital rules for the EU — while aimed at today's tech giants — will have an impact that lasts well into the future. "What's important is that digital markets open up, that there is much more innovation from more diverse sources. We need to see more things getting to market, from innovations rather than acquisitions." The drivers of change: that "the big guy is not self-preferencing in how they provide services" (hello, Google), and that start-ups and users control their data instead of large platforms.

Andreas Schwab, meanwhile, the member of the European Parliament who led negotiations with the EU executive on these new rules, told Global Insider that American tech companies need to up their lobbying game if they want more of their approach reflected in the bloc's rules.

"Virtually nothing happened," he said about meeting with tech companies on the EU's recent legislative package. "I would say I had one meeting with Apple, maybe two or three with Google. When we met, it was a meeting to say there was a meeting. It was just a form of corporate rejection, not a discussion where you work to achieve something."

Facebook "came too late" to make a difference, Schwab said. "They were totally disordered, they were not empowered to act. I said, 'Do you have to speak to your CEO, or what?' and they didn't answer and didn't come up with anything until the very end."

GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

FRANCE — PRESIDENT LE PEN: France has now entered its election media blackout ahead of presidential voting Sunday. Candidates cannot speak on TV or radio or to the written media. Rallies and exit polls are prohibited. As we enter that information vacuum, it's handy to recall that the two most common thoughts outsiders have about the election are either:

— A quick check that Emmanuel Macron will win, which caused you and everyone else to conclude "probably, yes."

— Or you saw a poll that said Marine Le Pen was doing well, and then you concluded "but she can't possibly win."

Reality check: Those thoughts are the ones everyone had about Brexit and the Hillary Clinton — Donald Trump race, both in 2016. Back then, your author swanned around Europe telling anyone who would listen that the votes would be closer than most people realized, but yes, Britain would vote to stay, and Clinton would win. Don't make that mistake this time. Macron is leading, and will likely lead the first round of voting this weekend. The run-off in two weeks is a toss-up.

By the numbers: The final national poll has Macron leading Le Pen by just 2.5 points: 26.5 percent to 24 percent. In the second round match-up, the margin was 52 to 48.

CANADA — HOW CHRYSTIA FREELAND BECAME A FISCAL CONSERVATIVE: The Liberal government in Ottawa doesn't have a plan to balance the budget in coming years, but it's definitely leaning on prudence and defense. "Putin's invasion of Ukraine has also reminded us that our own peaceful democracy — like all the democracies of the world — depends ultimately on the defense of hard power. The world's dictators should never mistake our civility for pacifism. We know that freedom does not come for free," Freeland said, announcing spending plans for 2022-2023.

PAKISTAN — NO, HE KHAN NOT:  Pakistan's Supreme Court ordered the country's Parliament to reconvene and hold a requested no-confidence vote in Prime Minister Imran Khan. The vote will take place Saturday, and Khan will make a national address today. Khan had tried to dissolve Parliament and force elections instead.

HONG KONG — LAM EXIT IS NO WIN FOR DEMOCRATS: The deeply unpopular Hong Kong Chief ExecutiveCarrie Lam announced Monday that she will not seek a second five-year term. Her legacy will be of a zealous servant of Beijing who championed policies, undermining the city's status as an international financial hub, destroyed the free press and spurred an outward migration surge.

POLITICO's Phelim Kine writes that Lam's presumed successor, Hong Kong's chief secretary for administration, John Lee Ka-chiu , will likely only tighten Beijing's chokehold and further diminish its viability as a regional business center. "Carrie Lam will be remembered as the Hong Kong chief executive who transformed one of the freest cities in the world into one of the most politically repressed."

 

DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.

 
 
GLOBETROTTERS

THESE WOMEN HUNTED THE TALIBAN — NOW THEY'RE YOUR NEIGHBORS: It's not quite "The Americans," but it's still a hell of a story. Amanda Ripley on why you can't make assumptions about the people serving you at Chick-fil-A.

MORE SCRUTINY PLEASE: Democratic senators Tim Kaine and Cory Booker have introduced legislation that would require presidents to detail how an ambassador nominee's skills and experience have prepared them to effectively lead U.S. diplomatic efforts in the specific country to which they are being nominated to serve. The bill would also require increased disclosures of a nominee's contributions to political campaigns. A spokesperson for Kaine told Global Insider the goal is to "increase oversight and transparency of ambassadorship nominations."

D.C. ELITE GETS PUMMELED WITH COVID: This news broke Monday, but you'll be feeling the effects for a week as seemingly half of Washington's power brokers rejoin the world of endless Zoom calls.

Gridiron Dinner source of A-list Washington Covid outbreak : Guests sat together at long narrow tables for hours, and watched satirical skits and songs performed by members. At the event's conclusion, guests joined hands for the traditional singing of "Auld Lang Syne."

Testing requirement for White House Correspondents Dinner: Only a fool now thinks vaccination alone will protect an event from being a super spreader site, especially when most Americans haven't taken one, let alone two, booster shots. The White House Correspondents Association, anticipating this, will require a negative test to enter at the end of April.

BRAIN FOOD

BILL CLINTON DEFENDS NATO EXPANSION: "The failure of Russian democracy, and its turn to revanchism, was not catalyzed in Brussels at NATO headquarters. It was decided in Moscow by Putin," writes the former president in an essay in The Atlantic. "Only a strong NATO stands between Putin and even further aggression."

READERS DEFEND NEVILLE CHAMBERLAIN: The former British prime minister who negotiated with Hitler is today "portrayed as a foolish man who was wrong to try to appease Hitler at Munich in 1938," writes in Anthony Callaert. But he also bought "the UK and its allies time to prepare for war. They were in no state to fight, or even defeat Hitler in 1938." Callaert opposes appeasing Putin today during war, but suggests the documentary Munich: Edge of War as brain food. And in Slate: Neville Chamberlain Was Right.

BOOK — KLEPTOPIA: HOW DIRTY MONEY IS CONQUERING THE WORLD: If you want to go deep into the world of Oligarchs and how they accumulate and spend their wealth, this book will "give you a better understanding of the times we are living in," says Global Insider reader Jordana Zimzor, who runs a book recommendation service on Instagram.

Thanks to editor John Yearwood, producer Hannah Farrow, Joseph Gedeon, Phelim Kine and all the POLITICO reporters working across eight countries who are reporting on the Russian war in Ukraine.

 

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Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan

 

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