‘Putin is banking on us losing interest’

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Apr 22, 2022 View in browser   By Ryan Heath Check out the weekly Global Insider podcast.| Follow Ryan on Twitter. Happening Today FINAL FRENCH COUNTDOWN: Sixty-six million French people will on Saturday enter their traditional election news blackout, with voting taking place this weekend (Saturday in overseas polling places and Sunday on French soil) in the country's presidential runoff vote. You should learn Sunday that Emmanuel Macron has been reelected. While Marine Le Pen performed better in this week's debate than she did in 2017, the far-right candidate does not have any polling momentum (graphed here inPOLITICO's Poll of Polls). Le Pen remains 10 points behind, and has been even with Macron in only one poll in April. That's different from both the 2016 Brexit referendum where polling see-sawed. And in France, it's a straight popular vote — unlike the U.S. electoral college system. BORIS JOHNSON IN INDIA — WEIGHED DOWN BY NEW AND OLD SCANDALS: The British prime minister will be investigated by a House of Commons committee over claims he misled Parliament about Downing Street parties during the country's Covid lockdowns. The vote to investigate took place after full-scale internal Conservative backlash to Downing Street efforts to avoid the investigation: More in London Playbook. Boris the bulldozer: Johnson also managed to start a new controversy, by not only visiting a JCB bulldozer factory, but by also posing for photographs hanging off the company's bulldozers. The problem: The company's machines have been used to illegally bulldoze Muslim homes and businesses in New Delhi, in ways that Tunku Varadarajan says are reminiscent of the targeting of Black Americans in the Jim Crow era. JCB is owned by Lord Anthony Bamford, who's donated millions to Johnson and the Conservative Party. WEAPONS, WEAPONS, WEAPONS: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Thursday his war-ravaged country needed more heavy weapons, backing up what Ukrainian commanders have been telling POLITICO's Christopher Miller. That's because Russia has much bigger weapons systems in Donbas — where the main theater of fighting has shifted — than Ukraine does. To that end, President Joe Biden is sending another $1.3 billion in weapons assistance and economic aid, warning that "Putin is banking on us losing interest." German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock continues to battle for a similar outcome within Germany's coalition government, telling reporters Thursday: "There are no taboos for us with regard to armored vehicles and other weaponry that Ukraine needs." If that were true, Ukraine would already have that support from Germany, but Baerbock gets points for continuing to push. Mariupol reality check: Many headlines on Thursday regurgitated a Russian claim to have won the battle of Mariupol. They are inaccurate — there are still 100,000 civilians in the city, and 2,000 Ukrainian troops control a massive steelworks in the city center. But the real question is why independent media outlets ran stories led by propaganda from a government that has committed war crimes in the city. INTERVIEW — ICELAND FOREIGN MINISTER, THORDIS K. GYLFADÓTTIR Gylfadottir finally made it to Washington this week after taking office Nov. 28. She wants you to know that wasn't the plan. "In NATO, I'm the only minister that is both minister of defense and minister of foreign affairs, so this year I've almost always been in Brussels." She's also the country's international development minister, dealing with food and energy price spike fallout globally. Fighting for Ukraine is worth the pain: "Sometimes it's a bit weird to wake up and be making decisions and living through the type of history that I was told I would only read about in history books. But it's worth fighting for. It's going to hurt, it's going to cost. But, you know, if we lose, what do we have?" Energy embargo: Iceland doesn't use Russian energy, and Gylfadottir is reluctant to lecture others, but noted that "countries such as Lithuania, they're paying a much higher price for energy than they did before. But they do it anyway. They're not a rich country, but they did it because they know it's the right thing to do." What is Putin afraid of? "Putin's Russia is not threatened by NATO. Putin's Russia is not threatened by Ukraine. Putin is threatened by the values we share; is threatened by the fact that Ukraine chose to go on a different path." "I think democracy and human rights can be contagious and that scares the shit out of Putin. So it's good to know we're fighting for the right thing." You're a minister of defense, but Iceland doesn't have a military: "Iceland is a founding member of NATO, but we've never had an army of our own (dating back hundreds of years). And since 2006, when the U.S. army left, we haven't had any army. But we take our NATO role seriously: Our special relationship with the United States is a bigger part of our DNA than a general European country." "We are peace lovers, but we definitely do not brag about the fact that we don't have an army. The countries that have an army — the parents that send their kids — they're also peace lovers." Would you have NATO troops back in Iceland? "We welcome air policing, we host them … we're ready (to step up, if called upon)." Sweden and Finland joining NATO: "The Nordic family work very closely together, and I definitely think that would strengthen the cooperation between the Nordics and Baltics also. The Baltics understand the cold reality (of Russia). I always listen very carefully when my colleagues from the Baltics talk. It always struck me how they talk about the threat in a different way, and they were right." Should Sweden and Norway let NATO troops in, to ensure a bridging security guarantee, as NATO members ratify their membership? "That's part of their homework." What's the way forward for Arctic cooperation? "Everything is on ice, pun intended. But we will need to find a way (to resume cooperation) because we cannot stop working for years: We just can't do that. There's too many challenges and we need collaboration, cooperation between countries. With my Nordic colleague at the Munich Security Conference, we said we want 'high north, low tension.'" "Heather Conley (president of the German Marshall Fund) was there as a mediator and she raised the question, 'Well, if we're not going to talk about security issues within the (Arctic) Council, where are we going to talk about security issues?' That is a very valid question ... pretending everything's back to normal is also not going to happen." Greenland is key: "There's no area in the world where there's as much hydropower possibilities as in Greenland. Connect that to the situation now of how dependent Europe is on Russia." Related: Billionaires bet big on Greenland's critical minerals   INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED:  Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.     NEW PODCAST EPISODE — A WAR WITHOUT OFF-RAMPS Listen to Global Insider podcast This episode is a collaboration with World Review with Ivo Daalder — a weekly news rundown discussing the week's headlines and how they impact geopolitics and U.S. foreign policy. We discuss the dangerous new phase of Russia's Ukraine invasion, corporate Germany's deep ties to Moscow and NATO's likely northern expansion. GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS ECONOMIC MESS DRIVING POLITICAL INSTABILITY ACROSS EMERGING WORLD:   A "barrage of shocks is building that's unlike anything emerging markets have had to confront since the 1990s, when a series of rolling crises sank economies and toppled governments," per Bloomberg. "Turmoil triggered by rising food and energy prices is already gripping countries like Sri Lanka, Egypt, Tunisia and Peru," which could rapidly enter into debt default. "It risks turning into a broader debt debacle and yet another threat to the world economy's fragile recovery from the pandemic." Reality check: So why isn't this the first and only topic of IMF and World Bank spring meetings? World Bank President David Malpass directly acknowledged the risk this week. But the world is still waiting for a plan. G-20 — IS IT BROKEN? The group's finance ministers and central bankers couldn't even issue a joint statement after meeting in Washington this week. At one point, they couldn't even bear to be in the same room: Officials from Western democracies walked out when Russia was handed the floor. Christopher Condon makes the case that this is a make-or-break moment for the newest global club. WELCOMING UKRAINIANS … AT WHAT COST TO OTHER ASYLUM SEEKERS? Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, used Biden's new "Uniting for Ukraine" refugee program to raise concerns about equitable treatment among all asylum seekers. "We cannot fulfill our goal of holding Vladimir Putin accountable for his war crimes in Ukraine if we are not willing to help protect those he continues to brutally victimize. … I will continue to call on the Administration to restore full access to our asylum laws at the Southern border, where too many Black and Brown migrants in our hemisphere have been denied the opportunity to seek humanitarian protection in the United States." POLITICO's Nahal Toosi has some pertinent questions: "It's hard to miss how differently the U.S. is approaching Ukrainian refugees than other refugee groups. There was never a 'United for Venezuela.' Is it due to lessons learned? A different president? Will it be replicated for others?" COVID — HIGH BAR SET FOR GLOBAL SUMMIT: White House documents obtained by POLITICO outline a high bar for participation. The overall goal is to raise $10 billion. And countries don't get an invite without first demonstrating a new and substantial commitment to action. The bigger their offer by April 26, the better their speaking position. Wealthier nations can make financial commitments, low-income countries can make policy commitments and middle-income countries can make both. Back for Round Two: The baskets for action remain the same as the first Biden administration global summit in September 2021: "Vaccinate the World," "Save Lives Now" or "Build Better Health Security." Specific sub-goals of the summit — co-hosted by Belize, Germany, Indonesia and Senegal — include $2 billion of treatment courses, including antiviral pills. An additional $1 billion would support oxygen supplies for low- and lower middle-income countries. Calling Congress: One struggle in hitting these targets is the Biden administration's own struggle to secure as much funding from Congress as it would like for its global Covid response. "How are you supposed to ask countries to pony up when you aren't ponying up?" an expert working with the White House told POLITICO's Daniel Payne. SOUTH AFRICA — DIGITAL APARTHEID? Digital surveillance is a new problem in South Africa: Until recently, the country's patchy broadband couldn't support it on a significant scale. Today there is a "centralized, coordinated, entirely privatized mass surveillance operation," write Karen Hao and Heidi Swart . "Here in South Africa, where colonial legacies abound, the unfettered deployment of AI surveillance offers just one case study in how a technology that promised to bring societies into the future is threatening to send them back to the past." UNITED STATES — COUNTING THE COST OF CLIMATE REGULATION: This month green investors and climate activists are getting excited about a proposed U.S. federal rule that would require companies to disclose their carbon footprints: The Securities and Exchange Commission estimates that the climate reporting proposal will cost companies more than $10 billion. Reality check — What is $10 billion? Under the climate rule, the SEC estimates large companies, in the beginning, will spend an average of about $124,000 a year to report emissions from their operations and energy use. As Lorraine Woellert notes, past measures designed to clamp down on poor accounting — such as the Sarbanes-Oxley Act — ended up costing some large companies millions of dollars. But for companies with billions in annual turnover, which often already try to measure and report their emissions, a million here or there is money they're probably already spending, or won't miss. GLOBETROTTERS TWO RUSSIAN OLIGARCHS FOUND DEAD ALONGSIDE WIVES, CHILDREN: There's a lot we don't know about these cases, which are apparently two sets of murder-suicides. Vladislav Avayev , the former vice president of Gazprombank, was found dead of a gunshot wound in his locked Moscow apartment Monday, alongside his wife and daughter. Sergei Protosenya, a former vice president at Novatek, was found hanged in Spain with his wife and daughter stabbed to death. While neither of these former Russian executives were under sanctions , when was the last time you read a headline like that — during the middle of a global efforts to sanction Russian billionaires — and thought to yourself: It must be a coincidence! RUSSIAN YACHTS BANNED FROM U.S. PORTS: The Biden administration, under the National Emergencies Act, issued a proclamation that "prohibits Russian-affiliated vessels from entering into United States ports with limited exceptions for Russian-affiliated vessels used in the transport of source material, special nuclear material, and nuclear byproduct material." USTR ARRIVAL LOUNGE: Andrea Durkin is now assistant U.S. Trade Representative for WTO and multilateral affairs. She most recently was principal and founder of Sparkplug.   DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.     BRAIN FOOD Olaf Scholz is becoming Putin's most valuable ally, argues Wolfgang Munchau  Is Facebook the next Yahoo? What Insiders told Kali Hays and Ashley Stewart. Thanks to editor John Yearwood, producer Hannah Farrow, Daniel Payne, Alex Wickham, Pauline de Saint Remy and all the POLITICO reporters working across eight countries who are reporting on the Russian war in Ukraine.   Follow us on Twitter Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan   Follow us

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