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Russia on fire

A newsletter from POLITICO that unpacks essential global news, trends, and decisions.
Apr 27, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Global Insider

By Ryan Heath

Check out the weekly Global Insider podcast.| Follow Ryan on Twitter.

HAPPENING TODAY 

President Joe Biden will attend the funeral of former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright at the Washington National Cathedral.

Vice President Kamala Harris has Covid.

NEW PODCAST EPISODE — IN SEARCH OF VERY BAD PEOPLE 

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Listen to Global Insider podcast

Where on Earth can you combine interests in arms trafficking, blood diamonds and expensive cars? Global Witness is one such place. The nonprofit's co-founder Patrick Alley — who's made a career out of scrutinizing "very bad people" — shares timely lessons about what works and what doesn't in exposing corruption, as the world puts Russian interests under the microscope.

How deep does corruption run? "Corruption is a globalized industry. It's too easy to think of it as something that happens in some hot tropical country. A senior politician may take a bribe … but who's paying that bribe? It's a company probably. And where does the money go? Every corrupt deal needs a bank. It originates in New York or London or Frankfurt. … If people have made a fortune through corrupt deals, they want to go and enjoy the money somewhere nice. So they go to the world's most exclusive cities."

How bad are the enablers of corruption? "If the enablers know what they're doing, then they're very bad people. I call them the pinstripe army."

How difficult is the operating environment for Global Witness now? "It's not just the fact that deals can be kept secret via an incredibly hostile environment. Even if you're right, you might get crushed before you ever get anywhere, simply because of the weight of money you're dealing with."

 

INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED:  Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.

 
 
GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

UKRAINE FRONTS

ANOTHER WESTERN TRIP TO MOSCOW ENDS IN SOCIAL MEDIA AMMO FOR THE KREMLIN: U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres met Tuesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. There was no change in Russia's war stance, but the Russian Foreign Ministry's Twitter pages used pictures of a smiling Putin and Guterres shaking hands, to declare "Russia has been supporting and will continue to support the founding principles" of the U.N. Big mistake.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it was "simply wrong" for him to visit Russia before seeing the devastation of Ukraine, including mass graves and sites of civilian massacres.

RUSSIA SUSPENDS GAS SUPPLIES TO POLAND AND BULGARIA: Starting today, energy giant Gazprom is halting gas supplies to both countries, a move that caused European gas prices to spike by another 17 percent.

The EU described Gazprom's action as "unjustified" and "blackmail" — yet it's the obvious Russian reaction to the Polish government sending tanks to Ukraine's army, and an ever-widening European sanctions net?

Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck said Tuesday during a trip to Warsaw that he's ready for Germany to likewise be cut off, and that "an [oil] embargo has become manageable for Germany," boosting hopes of an EU-wide embargo. More at the European Gas Flow Dashboard.

Changing sides: A senior Gazprom executive, Igor Volobuev, has fled Russia to fight for Ukraine, and claimed that the recent death of former Gazprombank deputy president Vladislav Avayev was a murder. More here.

GERMAN ARMS — CHEETAHS OR WHITE ELEPHANTS? Germany on Tuesday made a U-turn and agreed to send Gepard (Cheetah) anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine. But military experts who spoke to POLITICO said that of all the German-made tanks Berlin could have shipped, it chose the most complex — systems that require months of training, lots of spare parts and ammunition that the Swiss government does not want to sell to Ukraine.

RUSSIA ON FIRE: "Fires, explosions, train derailments, dead executives — there's a lot of weird stuff happening in Russia lately," writes Carlos Santamaria . Two major oil depots, a defense research institute and a chemical plant have gone up in flames in recent days, alongside a locomotive derailing near army supply lines. All of these targets would be useful for Ukraine to destroy.

PERSPECTIVES 

The Pope prays for Putin but clings to neutrality on Ukraine: The Vatican's diplomats insist on sitting on the fence rather than calling out Moscow's abuses.

What Ukrainian Jews think about Putin's claim to want to de-Nazify Ukraine: Jewish Ukrainians give short shrift to Putin's claim he is out to save them from Nazis, writes Zoya Sheftalovich.

How it happens: Russian soldiers take rape victim on door-to-door hunt for more victims.

BY THE (UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT) NUMBERS: Since Feb. 24, Russia has lost roughly 22,100 personnel; 918 tanks; 2,308 armored combat vehicles; 416 artillery systems; 149 multiple-launch rocket systems; 184 warplanes; 154 helicopters; eight ships; and 205 drones. ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)

FRANCE — MACRON'S POST-ELECTION SILENCE CONTINUES: We're now into a third day of presidential silence from Emmanuel Macron, after Sunday's muted celebrations.

Prime ministerial rumors: Élisabeth Borne, currently minister for labor, and previously a minister for France's green transition and for transport, is the name most commonly mentioned. The most common reaction Paris Playbook receives: "She ticks all the boxes."

Bringing Le Pen voters into the institutional tent: Marine Le Pen voters — 42 percent of voters — aren't fully reflected in France's institutions: "The Macron method will change," one of Macron's European Parliament lieutenants, Sandro Gozi, told Global Insider. "The new method will be a method of dialogue, a more reasonable approach with civil society and social partners. He will set up a committee to discuss how to improve the functioning of the French institutional political system, including modification of the electoral law."

CHINA — IT'S INFRASTRUCTURE WEEK! President Xi Jinping is going full Biden — promising to expand infrastructure investment (most of the world's high-speed trains and skyscrapers are not enough, apparently). The goal: boost economic growth , now at below 5 percent per year, putting China in danger of its worst economic results since 1978.

CHINA — WHY THE SOLOMON ISLANDS, A.K.A GUADALCANAL, MATTERS: Had Australians and Americans, working with locals, not undermined Japanese efforts to control the surrounding area during World War II, the war could have ended differently — including with the untimely death of one John F. Kennedy. More from Sydney Morning Herald's Peter Hartcher.

YEMEN —  SAUDI ESCALATION AND U.S. COMPLICITY: The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft's Annelle Sheline argues in a new report that "American involvement in supporting Saudi-led military action against the Houthis in Yemen, rather than helping to resolve the conflict as the Biden administration claims, is prolonging and escalating the violence."

UNITED NATIONS — GENERAL ASSEMBLY APPROVES REFORM OF SECURITY COUNCIL VETO: The General Assembly has adopted a resolution by consensus to convene when one of the five permanent members of the Security Council — China, France, Russia. U.K. and U.S. — vetoes a resolution in the Security Council, therefore raising the political cost of the veto.

RANKING GOOD GOVERNMENT GLOBALLY: The Chandler Good Government Index ranks 104 countries in terms of government capabilities and outcomes, across more than 50 data points. Finland comes out on top of the 2022 ranking. Singapore is the top Asian country. Canada comes in 13th, while the United States is ranked 18th.

ORGAN TRAFFICKING — NEW LEGAL ADVICE FOR MEDICAL PROFESSION: Global Rights Compliance, a human rights law firm, has published advice for medical institutions and professionals in transplantation medicine on their international legal responsibilities "to prevent complicity in organ trafficking and forced organ harvesting." The report warns about organ trafficking and unethical organ transplantation in India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Lebanon and Egypt, while spotlighting China as a "worst-case scenario" with a "state-backed organ harvesting programme."

TECH — EU ANNOUNCES NEW "TRADE AND TECH COUNCIL" WITH INDIA: The move comes after a similar setup with the U.S., in a push to expand its global influence as a standard-setting leader to counter the rise of China.

TECH — MUSK READS

"If companies such as Twitter want to benefit from the EU market, they will have to follow these rules … I don't mind what they do outside of Europe. But inside, if they don't respect the rules, they face fines of 6 percent of their turnover or, for repeat offenders, pure and simple banishment."

— EU Single Market Commissioner Thierry Breton to POLITICO. Full interview here.

"For all of Elon Musk's talk about ridding Twitter of spam bots and introducing an edit button, his top priority when he takes charge may be more mundane—how to quickly cut costs," that's because Musk will have huge Twitter debts, and the platform notoriously underperforms its peers in money-making.

— Martin Peers, The Information

"The Tesla CEO wants to move away from an ad-based business model — and (Twitter founder) Jack Dorsey is in full support. The math for a Twitter subscription (model) just doesn't add up."

— Janko Roettger, Protocol

The deal is another sign of " our billionaire-take-all social media ecosystem" — "we simply have too few companies with too much power over what we can see and do online,"

— Evan Greer, Fight for the Future, a nonprofit critical of Big Tech

Donald Trump told Fox News he will not be returning to Twitter.

BACKSTORY: Elon Musk is more interesting than you might think . He was hospitalized by school bullies, grew up (white) under Apartheid, went to college in Canada, his first child died at 10 weeks old, his mother is a model (into her 70s) … then there's all the boardroom coups, extended family company-building, divorces and co-parenting with the recording artist Grimes.

Musk's big worry: Lack of regulation of artificial intelligence.

 

DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.

 
 
GLOBETROTTERS

CONNECTED: Harvard University — whose motto is veritas, or truth — has released a report that reveals its connections to slavery, including that Harvard faculty and staff enslaved 70 people from the school's founding in 1636 to the banning of slavery in Massachusetts in 1783, and that professors taught racial eugenics.

DIVERSIFIED: The State Department is changing the path to becoming a U.S. diplomat. A person's performance on the Foreign Service Officer Test will no longer be the only metric considered. (The diplomats' union is concerned.)

DEPARTING: Kenneth Roth will leave Human Rights Watch after nearly three decades, in August, to write a book.

NOMINATED: Bridget Brink, a career diplomat, as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. The nomination could bring an end to nearly three years of an empty chair in Kyiv, under two administrations.

ICYMI: Global Insider would typically be annoyed at receiving 5-day-old news from the State Department. In this case we learned something: former Sen. Chris Dodd is a "Special Advisor for the Summit of the Americas." After being appointed earlier in April, Dodd took a trip to Barbados April 19-20 to meet with national leaders from the Caribbean Community. The meetings made quite a splash in local media. The Ninth Summit of the Americas will take place in June in Los Angeles.

BRAIN FOOD

SHORT READ: Why Disney will survive the wrath of Republicans, POLITICO's The Long Game by Lorraine Woellert, Catherine Boudreau and Debra Kahn.

LONG READ: The Will to See, Bernard-Henri Lévy's documentary and new dispatch from Ukraine

LONG READ: The end of gayborhoods, by Justin Ray

LONG READ: The future of Substack and the present of Medium, by Tomas Pueyo

"What Medium is trying to do, in summary, is to create a walled garden where they own all the readers, and the authors get some money in exchange" whereas Substack is about creating direct links and reengagement with your audience.

Thanks to editor John Yearwood, producer Hannah Farrow, Pauline de Saint Remy and all the POLITICO reporters working across eight countries who are reporting on the Russian war in Ukraine. 

 

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Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan

 

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