Sanctioning mass murder

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Apr 04, 2022 View in browser   By Ryan Heath Check out the weekly Global Insider podcast.| Follow Ryan on Twitter. Happening Today NEW GLOBAL CLIMATE REPORT: Scientific and government negotiators missed their Friday deadline for agreeing to the third and most contentious part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's latest climate assessment. The report was eventually finalized Sunday and will be published today, covering the policies, technologies and finances needed to cut greenhouse gas emissions Policy failure confirmed: Expect to read more details today about policies, technology and finance not keeping up with the pace and scale of climate change. Ahead of publication, Stephen Cornelius, World Wildlife Fund Global Lead for IPCC, said "while some sectors are heading in the right direction, climate change is moving faster than we are," meaning current policy will see the world fail to cap the global temperature rise at 1.5 degrees Celsius, the target set out in the Paris Climate Agreement. Today's report is the last in a series of three reports in the U.N. body's current seven-year assessment cycle. Russia's Ukraine invasion came too late for the impacts of those events to be assessed. The first report, released last year, looked at the latest physical science of climate change; the second, published a month ago, warned of the devastating impacts of global warming. What next? The next official forums for action are the annual U.N. General Assembly in September and the COP27 conference in November. In the meantime pressure to double down in fossil fuels and nuclear power produced in democracies will continue as governments plan further responses to Russian aggression and dependence on Russian fossil fuels. BATTLEFRONTS Follow POLITICO's Ukraine live blog here. WAR CRIMES: Russian troops left the city of Bucha, on the outskirts of Kyiv, strewn with civilian bodies (warning: graphic content). Ukraine Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova said in a statement that 410 bodies of civilians have been recovered so far, while Bucha's mayor Anatoly Fedoruk told AFP "we have already buried 280 people in mass graves." Human Rights Watch, CNN and several German media outlets documented mass grave sites, which appear to be separate from that arranged by Ukrainian authorities. Maxar, a satellite company, documented a 45-foot long mass grave. A genocide? President Volodymyr Zelenskyy led the charge to label the events as "genocide" and was backed by the prime ministers of Poland and Spain. "This is genocide and it must be judged," Poland's Mateusz Morawiecki told reporters. European Council President Charles Michel on April 3 called Russia's actions in Bucha a "massacre" while both Congress and the State Department strongly condemned the actions. Russia's latest tactic is to claim its troops were provoked by radicals into killing them, and it now plans to use the U.N. Security Council to air those claims. In a Monday address, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy switched between Ukrainian and Russian, and appealed to the conscience of Russian mothers : "How could women be raped and murdered in front of their children? Their bodies tortured even after their deaths? Why did tanks crush the corpses of people? What did the Ukrainian city of Bucha do to your Russia? How did this become possible?" Zelenskyy names names: On the 14th anniversary of NATO deciding not to offer Ukraine a clear path to membership, Zelenskyy said, in line with German and French objections at the time: "I invite Mrs. [Angela] Merkel and Mr. [Nicolas] Sarkozy to visit Bucha, to see what the policy of 14 years of concessions to Russia has led to … to see with their own eyes the tortured Ukrainian men and women." Reality check: The actions of Russian troops in Bucha are terrible, but not an aberration, writes Max Boot — this is a part of a common Russian approach to war. SANCTIONS AND EMBARGOES: More sanctions from Western governments are coming. Lithuania became the first EU country to stop all gas imports from Russia. "Seeking full energy independence from Russian gas, in response to Russia's energy blackmail in Europe and the war in Ukraine, Lithuania has completely abandoned Russian gas," Lithuania's Energy Ministry said in a statement late Saturday. French President Emmanuel Macron called Monday for energy sanctions. Germany has hesitated at such moves, but on Sunday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised further measures and vowed to reporters "President [Vladimir] Putin and his supporters will feel the consequences." Reality check 1: Five reasons why it will be messy to establish an EU gas-buying cartel (first reported by Global Insider mid-March). Reality check 2: The two European governments closest to Moscow — in Hungary and Serbia — won reelection over the weekend. Here's how Viktor Orbán's win sets the stage for more battles over the future of democracy. DID CHINA STAGE A HUGE CYBERATTACK ON UKRAINE'S MILITARY AND NUCLEAR FACILITIES? Intelligence memos obtained by The Times of London suggest it's possible. The claim from a Ukrainian security source is that the attacks started before the end of the Winter Olympics and peaked on Feb. 23, the day before Russian troops and tanks crossed the border." A U.K. government spokesperson said: "The National Cyber Security Centre is investigating these allegations with our international partners." Sick Russian soldiers flee Chernobyl: The troops were subjected to radiation poisoning after digging trenches in contaminated soil. PUTIN CANCER RUMORS FINALLY PUBLISHED: Cancer surgeon visited Putin 35 times in four years, per The Times of London. Rumors that Putin has long-term cancer have circulated for weeks among journalists and diplomats, including Global Insider. We haven't confirmed any of the reports. PERSPECTIVES 'No culture, no sports, only fighting': The steel town that forged Volodymyr Zelensky, by Misha Zelinsky . Before he was Ukraine's president and a global icon of democracy, Zelensky was a boy from the gritty former Soviet industrial city of Kryvyi Rih. This investor is sticking with Russia: With most others racing for the exit, David Amaryan spots a financial bargain. But what price will he end up paying?   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS HUNGARY — ORBÁN INCREASES HIS MAJORITY: The ruling Fidesz party of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán crushed a new opposition coalition by 53 percent to 35 percent, massively outperforming recent polls, in a Saturday election. Fidesz is projected to win 135 seats in Hungary's 199-seat parliament, meaning it will regain the supermajority needed to pass constitutional change without consulting other parties. POLITICO SERBIA — VUČIC GOVERNMENT RETURNED: Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić cruised to a second term Sunday — projected to win almost 60 percent of the vote in the presidential poll — some 40 points ahead of his nearest challenger, according to pollster Ipsos and the Center for Free Elections and Democracy, a local NGO. FRANCE — MACRON ADMITS LE PEN RISK: Expect more drama out of France this week. The most recent national poll gives Macron 52.5 percent in a run-off vote with Marine Le Pen, on 47.5 percent. That compares to Macron's 66-34 victory in 2017. Macron is still expected to top the first round of presidential voting on Sunday. Sarkozy tries to muscle into election as kingmaker: Can he save Macron? AUSTRALIA — PRIME MINISTER'S PARTY COLLEAGUES ACCUSE HIM OF RACISM: Six weeks out from Australia's next national election, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has a problem. Interlocutors and rivals — from fellow party members to prime ministerial predecessors to the French president — keep making public announcements that Morrison has lied to them, or about them. The latest example is a claim by Morrison's Liberal Party members in his home state that he used racist claims to crush a rival in 2007, and is now covering up the truth. PHILIPPINES — ANOTHER MARCOS PRESIDENCY: Polling suggests Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will win in a landslide, but there are new claims that he has for decades failed to pay tax on the multibillion estate of his late father, longtime Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr. Leaving aside how père Macros acquired his assets, his son's alleged actions risk a 10-year jail term, if successfully prosecuted. Marcos leads Vice President Leni Robredo by a whopping 44 points in recent polls. More in World Politics Review. PAKISTAN — EARLY ELECTION NOW EXPECTED AFTER KHAN DISSOLVES PARLIAMENT: Seeking to avoid a no-confidence vote, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan successfully requested that President Arif Alvi dissolve the country's parliament on Sunday. An election would normally follow such a move, but this time it's not clear what will happen. Whoever wins this power struggle will inherit an economic crisis. AFRICAN UNION — U.N. APPROVES NEW SOMALIA PEACEKEEPING EFFORT: A reconfigured Somalia peacekeeping force, known as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia has been approved by the United Nations Security Council to deal with ongoing Al Qaeda-linked threats to the country. ATMIS is expected to operate for around three years, gradually drawing down from nearly 20,000 soldiers, police and civilians to zero by the end of 2024. GEOPOLITICS — HOW CHINA OUTFLANKED AUSTRALIA IN THE PACIFIC: Australia did diplomatic heavy lifting in rescuing the failed state in the Solomon Islands over two decades from 1998. But China was smarter about sweeping in with investment in recent years, reports Eryk Bagshaw. GEOPOLITICS — A PLANE CRASH AND INDUSTRIAL POLICY: South China Morning Post reports that China has approved visas for U.S. National Transportation Safety Board investigators to travel to China and assist the Civil Aviation Administration of China in their investigation of a crashed Boeing 737-800 plane, which killed all 132 aboard. Beyond resolving the mysterious facts of the crash, the interests at stake include whether Chinese airlines will be allowed to continue freely buying Boeing planes, or whether this incident — alongside other political tensions — will prompt Beijing to require Chinese airlines to buy domestically produced Comac planes. HUMAN RIGHTS — INSIDE THE BRUTAL INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN VIETNAMESE SLAVES: At least 1,700 people have been trafficked into Britain since 2019. Some of the victims "did not know where they were in the country — or even that they were in Britain — until they were rescued," the Times of London reported. Reality check: While the traffickers tend to organize their operations through small central units, they also use extensive networks of enablers: drivers, ticket purchasers, people who hide trafficking victims in their homes as they move towards a final destination. POLITICO GLOBAL POLICY LAB — LIVING CITIES: Europe's cities are changing to adjust to short-term challenges — like those posed by the pandemic — and more long-term factors like combating climate change and cutting air pollution. POLITICO is launching a new Global Policy Lab, which will feature a weekly newsletter and a series of high-level events and feature articles. Sign up to the free newsletter here, and have your say on what you would like to see from the project here. GLOBETROTTERS APPOINTED: The U.K. appointed diplomat David Quarrey as its next NATO envoy. He will take over from Sarah MacIntosh later in April. GET TO KNOW: Comfort Ero, the first Black leader of the International Crisis Group. TOO HIGH TO FAIL: New ultra-tall and ultra-thin residential towers are racing skyward in midtown Manhattan. They increasingly serve as rarely visited real-estate equivalents of safety deposit boxes for the ultra wealthy from authoritarian countries. "Sold for $95 million, the 96th floor of 432 Park Avenue will be the highest residence in the Western world." STICK IN THE MUD: A container ship named Ever Forward has been stuck in the Chesapeake Bay for 21 days.   DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.     KLEPTOWATCH  THE FIRST BILLION-DOLLAR YACHT PORTFOLIO? What happens when you're not merely worth a billion dollars, but your yachts alone are? Sanctioned Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich owns or is linked to a collection of five yachts worth an estimated $1 billion, including several vessels whose ownership remained secret until this week. Thanks to editor Ben Pauker, producer Hannah Farrow and all the POLITICO reporters working across eight countries who are reporting on the Russian war in Ukraine.   Follow us on Twitter Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan   Follow us

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