| | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Nick | Follow Politico Canada Ottawa Playbook will not publish Friday. We'll be back in your inboxes April 18 at 6 a.m. WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey with Maura Forrest. Today, we take a look at the shrinking group of Conservative MPs who have yet to pick sides in the leadership race. Keep reading for a deep dive into poll-by-poll results in key ridings — including maps. We also track the budget roadshow that's sweeping the nation. Did someone forward Ottawa Playbook to you today? Are you ready to be a forwarder, not a forwardee? Click here to sign up to this free newsletter.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | AN ALBERTA MANCHIN TOUR — A powerful U.S. senator from West Virginia, JOE MANCHIN, is in Wild Rose Country for an up-close look at the oilsands and to join a Calgary roundtable. The senator is occasionally a thorn in the side of JOE BIDEN. — Pipelines and EVs: The self-described "centrist, moderate, conservative Democrat" wants Biden to reverse course on the Keystone XL pipeline. Manchin was also seen as an "unlikely ally" of Canada during high-stakes negotiations in Washington over a massive infrastructure bill. A tax incentive for American-made electric vehicles set off alarm bells in Canada's auto industry, which feared an investment exodus and supply-chain confusion. Manchin opposed the same measure because he said it discriminated against his own state's auto manufacturers.
| | CONSERVATIVE CORNER | | IT'S A DATE(S) — The Tory leadership candidates will go head-to-head in at least three debates in May, according to the Star's STEPHANIE LEVITZ — including one in Edmonton and another in Montreal. Levitz also reports this morning that a Charest Conservative government "would expand parental leave to two years and allow pregnant women to access the federal child care benefit." — Related reading: From the CBC's CATHERINE CULLEN: Big crowds turning out for Poilievre suggest a very different kind of Conservative leadership race.
ENDORSEMENT WATCH — Tory MP MARILYN GLADU reiterated Monday that she is on Team Poilievre. Gladu was one of the Carleton MP's first endorsements in February.
— Neutral MPs: Playbook is taking a deeper dive into who hasn't yet taken sides. The total number of undeclared MPs stands at 41, but that includes interim leader CANDICE BERGEN and her leadership team. ERIN O'TOOLE also hasn't taken sides, and will likely stay quiet. Weed all of them out and the true number of TBD endorsers is 34. They're still looking for the right man or woman for the job. They live all over Canada and they don't come from any one ideological corner of the party. — Demographic breakdown: 28 men and six women. Within this group, 13 endorsed PETER MACKAY in 2020, while 12 picked O'Toole and one supported LESLYN LEWIS. — 11 of them are Ontario MPs: TONY BALDINELLI, DAVE EPP, KAREN VECCHIO, BEN LOBB, ALEX RUFF, LIANNE ROOD, SCOTT REID, SHELBY KRAMP-NEUMAN, TERRY DOWDALL and LARRY BROCK. Four of them endorsed MacKay in 2020, three sided with O'Toole, and Reid chose Lewis. There's also MICHAEL CHONG, who didn't endorse a candidate in 2020. — 10 are in Alberta: DAMIEN KUREK, GARNETT GENUIS, LAILA GOODRIDGE, RACHAEL THOMAS, MIKE LAKE, EARL DREESHEN, ZIAD ABOULTAIF, KELLY MCCAULEY, GREG MCLEAN and BOB BENZEN. Four of them picked O'Toole, three MacKay. — 4 are in Saskatchewan: KEVIN WAUGH, RANDY HOBACK, GARY VIDAL and ROBERT KITCHEN. MacKay and O'Toole split the foursome's support. — 2 are in Quebec: JACQUES GOURDE and PIERRE PAUL-HUS. Both endorsed MacKay. — 2 are in B.C.: FRANK CAPUTO and TAKO VAN POPTA, who threw his weight behind O'Toole two years ago. — 2 are in Manitoba: RAQUEL DANCHO and LARRY MAGUIRE, a pair of O'Toole supporters during the last race. — 2 are in Nova Scotia: STEPHEN ELLIS and CHRIS D'ENTREMONT, the deputy Speaker of the House who endorsed MacKay in 2020. — 1 is in New Brunswick: ROB MOORE, who also endorsed MacKay.
| | ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR | | PRINCE CHARLES AND CAMILLA — The Prince of Wales and Duchess of Cornwall are Canada-bound this spring for a tour during the Queen's platinum jubilee year. The royal pair will visit Newfoundland and Labrador, the National Capital Region and the Northwest Territories. — The PMO's cheery prelude: "During their visit, they will have the wonderful opportunity of seeing first-hand the diversity and kindness of Canadians and the beauty of our abundant natural landscapes that make us proud to call our country home." — The last time 'round: Hill Times columnist ERICA IFILL reminded her followers that Charles and Camilla burst into a case of the giggles on a sesquicentennial tour as they listened to a performance by Inuit throat singers in Iqaluit. Yikes. WON'T SOMEBODY THINK OF THE CHILDREN? — After speaking with "almost 500 young people across Canada" for a year, Sen. ROSEMARY MOODIE is launching a report on a Children's Commissioner for Canada today at 1 p.m. "This event is key for any parliamentarian who is serious about putting children's rights and voices at the forefront of their work," reads Moodie's event invite.
| | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | | | 
In this file photo taken on May 30, 2018, Bill Browder, a U.S.-born Britain-based financier, talks to The Associated Press' reporters after leaving the anti-graft prosecutor's office in Madrid, Spain. Moscow lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya's role in the drama over the Trump campaign's Russian connections is rooted in her fight against Browder, who has become a leading critic of the Russian President Vladimir Putin. | Francisco Seco/AP Photo | FREELAND'S REP — POLITICO's ANDY BLATCHFORD sat down with BILL BROWDER, a U.S. investor and prominent anti-Putin critic who heads up the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign. Today, Browder is publishing a new book: "Freezing Order" Read the whole Q&A here. Here's one excerpt that jumped out: Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND has been credited with leading the international drive to sanction Russia's central bank. She's also a former journalist that you know from your time in Moscow. What do you remember of her from your days in Russia? When I was a fund manager in Moscow, I encountered all sorts of corruption by the oligarchs who own majority stakes of the companies that I had invested in. She was the (Financial Times) bureau chief and I was trying to get different journalists to write about these scams. Most of the journalists were too scared. But she was the only one brave enough to go out and expose one of the biggest oligarchs in Russia at the time, VLADIMIR POTANIN, in a major conflict I was involved in. And her exposing him led to his attempts to steal huge amounts of money to go unsuccessful. It also led to my work as an anti-corruption activist when I saw I could work with the media to do this type of thing. It both empowered me and it also empowered other journalists to then step in and do the same thing. She was a real leader, even back when she was just a journalist. — Related reading from JOHN IVISON: Ottawa is buying armored vehicles for Ukraine, but they won't be enough.
| | PAPER TRAIL | | ELECTION RESULTS — It's Christmas in April. STEPHEN TAYLOR, the former Conservative adviser who knows his way around digital mapping tools, published poll-by-poll results maps for every riding in the 2021 election over the weekend. Is Playbook excited? Um, just a little bit. We revisited five key races from the last campaign where remarkable vote shifts from 2019 swung the final result. It's a feast for the eyes of election nerds (we know we're not alone) who love visualized voting patterns.
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How the vote shifted in Kitchener Centre between 2019 and 2021 | Data: Elections Canada; Map: Stephen Taylor | — Kitchener Centre: This is now officially MIKE MORRICE country. The Green rookie finished a surprising second to Liberal RAJ SAINI in 2019, and the race blew wide open two years later when Saini dropped out of his reelection bid amid scandal. Back in 2019, Morrice won plenty of polls in the downtown core, but he redrew the map last September. And he made up ground even in losing polls. During the campaign, your Playbook host followed Morrice around a Conservative-hued neighborhood in the riding's east end where he finished third in 2019. Saini scored 89 votes, former MP STEPHEN WOODWORTH netted 74, and Morrice got 47. In 2021, Tory MARY HENEIN THORN won the area with 68 votes. Saini's non-campaign still managed 37, but Morrice, with 53, scooped up much of his support. New Democrat BEISAN ZUBI increased her party's haul to 31 from 19.
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How the vote shifted in Calgary Skyview between 2019 and 2021 | Data: Elections Canada; Map: Stephen Taylor | — Calgary Skyview: Playbook was in this neck of the woods of northeastern Calgary right before the campaign officially got underway in August. The battlegrounds were a clutch of neighborhoods east of the airport — that's the big poll in the middle — which put former Liberal MP DARSHAN KANG over the top in 2015. Tory candidate JAG SAHOTA won most of those polls in 2019, but city councilor GEORGE CHAHAL won them back in 2021. Sahota sustained her strongholds in the riding's northwest and southeast corners, but Chahal — who was later fined by Elections Canada for swiping a Sahota flyer from a mailbox — dominated where he needed to win (including the poll covering Prairie Winds Park, where Playbook watched him chat with voters).
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How the vote shifted in Edmonton Griesbach between 2019 and 2021 | Data: Elections Canada; Map: Stephen Taylor | — Edmonton Griesbach: New Democrats didn't make too much noise across Canada — their 3 million votes added up to just one extra seat — but BLAKE DESJARLAIS did best a Tory incumbent in Alberta. KERRY DIOTTE won a majority of votes in Edmonton Griesbach in 2019, but he managed only 37.1 percent last year. No wonder party leader JAGMEET SINGH dropped in on the riding twice — including two days before election day. Singh is also there today for the local party AGM.
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How the vote shifted in Hamilton Mountain between 2019 and 2021 | Data: Elections Canada; Map: Stephen Taylor | — Hamilton Mountain: If there was one symbol of the NDP's generally anemic campaign performance, it was the party's overall result in Steeltown. Trudeau visited Hamilton three times in five weeks. Singh popped in a pair of times. ERIN O'TOOLE was there early on. Playbook also stopped in twice: once to have a coffee with Hamilton East–Stoney Creek NDP candidate NICK MILANOVIC, the other to catch up with outgoing Cabinet minister CATHERINE MCKENNA in her hometown. When Liberal MP and former mayor BOB BRATINA decided not to run again, Milanovic sensed momentum — but failed to capitalize on it. CHAD COLLINS took the riding. The news got worse for the NDP. MALCOLM ALLEN, a former MP who repped a riding farther east on the Niagara Peninsula, failed to retain Hamilton Mountain when retiring MP SCOTT DUVALL declined another run. Playbook walked around with McKenna and the energetic LISA HEPFNER, a former TV journalist whose face everybody recognized. Not surprisingly, she expanded her support into traditional NDP turf and won. (Hepfner hosted the PM and CHRYSTIA FREELAND on their first post-budget stop last Friday.)
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How the vote shifted in Vancouver Granville between 2019 and 2021 | Data: Elections Canada; Map: Stephen Taylor | — Vancouver Granville: The big question when JODY WILSON-RAYBOULD declined another independent run for the House was which party would benefit most from her absence. Would the Liberals regain the riding? Would her notoriety as a Trudeau critic help elect a New Democrat? Or would a Conservative sneak up the middle? A close three-way race ensued. New Democrat ANJALI APPADURAI took most of the northern polls closer to Vancouver's core. The Conservative, KAILIN CHE, was strongest in the wealthier polls. The Liberal runner-up from 2019, TALEEB NOORMOHAMED, was strong all over the riding — and squeaked out a 436-vote win over Appadurai.
| | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | | — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU starts the day in Edmonton, where he'll make a Budget 2022 announcement at 10:45 a.m. local time. At noon, he's talking about the budget with small businesses. Tourism Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT will tag along. At 1:15 p.m., Trudeau will meet with members of the local Ukrainian and Afghan communities. 2:30 brings more budget talk at a "nature-based solutions lab." 9:35 a.m. Families Minister KARINA GOULD is taking the sprawling post-budget tour to Milton, Ont., where she'll meet with business owners. 10 a.m. AT Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND's post-budget roadshow heads to Halifax, where she'll tour the Centre for Collaborative Clinical Learning and Research at Dalhousie University. Also in attendance: Immigration Minister SEAN FRASER and local Liberal MPs LENA METLEGE DIAB, ANDY FILLMORE, JAIME BATTISTE and DARREN FISHER. 10:05 a.m. Trade Minister MARY NG is on a trade mission to Jamaica and Guyana, and will kick off the event with virtual remarks. 10:30 a.m. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT will be in Quebec City. Guess what he's talking about? Hint: It starts with B and ends with u-d-g-e-t. 10:45 a.m. AT Freeland and co. will make an announcement. 10:45 a.m. PT NDP leader JAGMEET SINGH will speak at the South Asian Canadian Legacy Project launch. 11 a.m. Transport Minister OMAR ALGHABRA leads a sizable delegation of local Liberal MPs — BARDISH CHAGGER, VALERIE BRADFORD, TIM LOUIS and BRYAN MAY — for a budget announcement at a bike shop in Cambridge, Ontario. 1 p.m. Northern Affairs Minister DAN VANDAL is in Iqaluit for — say it with us, this time with feeling — a budget announcement. 1 p.m. AT Freeland, Fraser and Fillmore will visit a mosque and community center to meet with Afghan refugee families. 5:15 p.m. PT Singh speaks with the Edmonton Griesbach riding association's AGM.
| | ASK US ANYTHING | | TELL US WHAT YOU KNOW — What are you hearing that you need Playbook to know? Send it all our way.
| | MEDIA ROOM | | — In the Ottawa Citizen, Treasury Board President MONA FORTIER says a review of government policies and operations is aimed at making government smarter, not smaller. — This week on FATIMA SYED 's Backbench pod: "an audience with the pope." In the aftermath of an historic trip to the Vatican, Syed talks to residential school survivor NORMAN YAKELEYA and youth delegate TAYLOR BEHN-TSAKOZA about the moment they heard an apology from the head of the Catholic church. Listen. — The Post's CHRISTOPHER NARDI parses Ottawa's annual report on public servant wrongdoing. — It's decision time in Washington for the Jan. 6 select committee. POLITICO's KYLE CHENEY and NICHOLAS WU consider five endgame scenarios. — CBC's West of Centre pod debates and discusses the federal budget's commitment to carbon capture and storage. — JASON MARKUSOFF explains various goings-on in Alberta politics and JASON KENNEY's leadership review.
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Birthdays: HBD to Liberal MP and enthusiastic Wordler SHERRY ROMANADO. Climate and energy expert MARK JACCARD and Quebec MNA CLAIRE SAMSON also celebrate today. Happy 50th anniversary (+1 day) to the Institute for Research on Public Policy. To celebrate, here's president JENNIFER DITCHBURN in defense of think tanks. Movers and shakers: MARK ZACHARIAS will be the new executive director of Clean Energy Canada as of April 18, replacing MERRAN SMITH, who will continue as founder and chief innovation officer. Zacharias "enjoys most sports." High-profile criminal lawyer LAWRENCE GREENSPON will represent Freedom Convoy leader TAMARA LICH. The Samara Centre has welcomed RANJAN AGARWAL and ALEJANDRA BRAVO to their board. The Royal Society of Canada has awarded the inaugural JUSTICE ROSALIE SILBERMAN ABELLA PRIZE to a graduating student in 23 law schools in Canada. GWENDOLYN MONCRIEFF-GOULD is leaving Universities Canada to join BGC Canada as their Director, Public Policy & Engagement. Spotted: Ontario's chief medical officer of health, KIERAN MOORE, emerging after more than a month to confirm that Ontario is, in fact, in a sixth wave, in case you hadn't noticed. Agriculture Minister MARIE-CLAUDE BIBEAU, celebrating national poutine day.
| | PROZONE | | For Pro subscribers, here's our PM Canada memo from ANDY BLATCHFORD: How big will Macklem go? In news for POLITICO Pro subscribers:
— How a Trump ally got his unfounded voting-machine audit push in front of federal cyber cops.
— Biden to lift summertime ethanol ban to combat gas prices.
— The new White House rule: Do not talk about Joe Manchin.
— Joe Biden and his advisers know the window to change the economic narrative is rapidly closing.
— Pro Analysis: Biden's new defense budget.
| | TRIVIA | | Monday's answer: Sen. YONAH MARTIN was the first Korean-Canadian parliamentarian in Canadian history. She was appointed by former PM STEPHEN HARPER in 2009. Some readers guessed former Conservative MP NELLY SHIN. In 2019, she became the first Korean-Canadian to be elected to the House of Commons. Props to BEN ROTH, HARRY MCKONE, DOUG PAGE, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JOHN GUOBA and KEVIN BOSCH.
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Sculptor Manfred Pervich created this statue of Canadian hero Terry Fox. | POLITICO Canada | Tuesday's question: On this day in 1980, TERRY FOX began his Marathon of Hope. Where in Canada will you find this statue — and why? Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Have a petition you want signed? A cause you're promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Alejandra Waase to find out how: awaase@politico.com. Playbook wouldn't happen without Luiza Ch. Savage and editor Sue Allan.
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