Washington's new crush on quantum computing

Presented by ACT|The App Association: How the next wave of technology is upending the global economy and its power structures

Apr 19, 2022 View in browser   By Konstantin Kakaes and Brendan Bordelon Presented by With help from Derek Robertson A quantum computing chip made by IonQ, a startup based in Maryland that started trading on the New York Stock Exchange in October 2021. | Walker Steere / IonQ For years, quantum computing has been the elusive next big thing in technology—a crucial new international scientific battleground; a potential technological jackpot for whoever gets there first. Right now, real-world momentum is building. Venture capitalists are pouring money into the field, investing more than a billion dollars in quantum computing startups in 2021. Alphabet, Google's parent company,is also spending billions, as are other established firms likeIBM, Microsoft andAmazon. Congress is not far behind. A bipartisan House billintroduced Monday would boost federal support for quantum-resistant encryption. And a whole slew of provisions related to quantum sciences are more likely than this latest bill to become law this year — and could see action as soon as Congress returns from recess. There's only one problem. Experts in quantum computing—who have every reason to want more money and attention—say that it's too much, or at least too soon. That's because quantum computers that can solve otherwise intractable real-world problems don't yet exist, and knowledgeable experts say they can't tell if such computers are a decade away, or a century. It's hard to write about quantum computers without explaining how they're unique, and it's hard to do that straightforwardly, but here's a short version: Traditional computers work by manipulating "bits"— units of information that take a value of 0 or 1. A computer chip is a machine for performing simple logical operations like "and" or "or" billions of times a second, using definite 1's and 0's. Quantum computers are different: each of their "qubits" is kept in a fuzzy state that physicists call superposition, neither 0 nor 1. In theory — and "in theory" is a phrase you hear a lot in quantum computing — a computer built from many qubits could perform calculations that are for all practical purposes impossible with classical computers. In practice, it's very hard to hold those qubits in a coherent state for long enough to build a quantum computer with even a small number of working qubits. Washington cares about quantum computing for some big reasons. In theory, a quantum computer could decipher codes that are used to encrypt a lot of modern communications, like those that enable secure web browsing. That makes quantum computing a huge national security risk, or opportunity, depending who gets there first. Quantum computers also could potentially simulate the behavior of molecules to design everything from more effective drugs to more efficient solar cells. But they're still a long way off. And importantly, quantum computers are not a general-purpose technology — there are particular problems for which they could be very effective, but for most applications, classical computers will remain dominant. Policymakers have seized on "quantum" as a buzzword. The Senate version of a large pending competitiveness bill includes the Quantum Network Infrastructure and Workforce Development Act , which would create a K-12 education pilot program to give students the skills they'll need for a future quantum workforce. (The skeptical take : It's important to teach kids math and physics, but the idea that training kids for a "quantum workforce" is any different from giving kids a rigorous grounding in the basics of math and physics is laughable to anyone who actually works in these fields.) The House competitiveness bill tacks on even more provisions related to quantum research, some with much bigger price tags. It includes the Department of Energy Science for the Future Act, which would set aside $500 million over five years for research into distributed quantum computing systems, quantum communication technologies and new quantum-enabled sensing and measurement tools. It would also direct DOE to develop a Quantum User Expansion for Science and Technology (QUEST) program, granting the department $340 million over five years to give U.S.-based researchers access to advanced quantum computing tools. Despite ongoing delays and expectations of a difficult conference, a competitiveness bill is expected to pass this year. And barring any surprises, it's likely most (if not all) of the quantum provisions present in both bills will be included in the final package. Quantum computing is a fascinating and important area of basic research — not only does it have potentially important applications, but it also can give important insight into the nature of reality, by letting scientists develop a better understanding of the boundary between the counterintuitive world of quantum mechanics and our everyday experience. As they decide where to put public money, though, policymakers need to be cautious: No honest expert thinks those transformations are coming in the immediate future.   A message from ACT|The App Association: Open and fair competition in the digital marketplace drives our members' success, but the proposals in the Open App Markets Act will hinder our small business members' opportunity for continued prosperity. https://actonline.org/2022/04/04/give-small-developers-a-chance-not-higher-barriers-to-entry/   Quantum volume One reason it's hard to track the progress of quantum computing is that the real-world performance of quantum computers is not easily captured by a single number. Performance depends not only on the number of qubits a computer has, but also on how resilient qubits are to errors, and how connected they are to one another, among other factors. In 2019, IBM researchers introduced a measure they dubbed "quantum volume," which is an attempt to combine those factors (along with a few others) in order to quantify the performance of a quantum computer in a single number. Even IBM's competitors agree that it's a reasonable, if imperfect, estimate for how good a quantum computer is. (Though most rivals have not published "quantum volume" figures for their machines.) IBM says they want to double their quantum volume every year, For now, though, Honeywell's systems are outpacing IBM's. If these trends continue, quantum computers are poised to fulfill their revolutionary promise. But, as the technology's most knowledgeable proponents point out , there are many reasons to think that IBM's stated ambition of doubling quantum volume every year through the end of the decade will prove elusive. Afternoon Snack Spotify, already at the top of the music streaming world, never passes up an opportunity for viral self-promotion. "National Pet Day'' last week provided a perfect opportunity: The company rolled out a new "pet playlist" feature, using its special-sauce algorithm in a collaboration with musicologist David Teie to generate a list of tunes based on a few basic questions about a given listener's pet. Naturally, I created one for my cat. I turned the "energetic" and "friendly" sliders way up (despite her relatively advanced age, my cat's traits are more like a puppy's than not). The end product, a combination of my own taste, musicologically cat-approved instrumental tones and some obviously planted gimmick tracks (a lackluster cover of The Cure's "The Love Cats," for example), was predictably well-crafted. And yes, inasmuch as it's possible to tell, the cat did seem to like it. Or at least I did. The company knows all too well what I like — gloomy English pop, Houston rap, Italo disco — and knows how to feed me more of it, based on a combination of audio analysis and taste-matching with similar-minded users. By securing a massive haul of streamable music before its competitors did, and crucially, allowing users to curate their own playlists and stream songs on demand in contrast to the more randomized, radio-like playback of early competitors like Pandora, the company solidified itself as the platform of choice for music obsessives and tastemakers. The general public followed, launching Spotify to the top of the heap — proof that while pioneering in technology is nice, there's no substitute for having a solid business plan and executing it first. — Derek Robertson   A message from ACT|The App Association:   The Future In Five Links Amazon is throwing its hat in the AR ring, seeking developers for a "magical and useful new-to-world consumer product." When it comes to ever-inflating tech IPOs, what goes up might not necessarily have to come down. The U.S. has identified a North Korean hacker group as the most likely culprits of a recent massive crypto heist. A recent poll of American teens shows that a quarter have access to VR technology, but almost none of them use it. A new book explores the possibility that human astronauts should be replaced by robots. Stay in touch with the whole team: Ben Schreckinger ( bschreckinger@politico.com); Derek Robertson (drobertson@politico.com); Konstantin Kakaes (kkakaes@politico.com);  and Heidi Vogt (hvogt@politico.com). If you've had this newsletter forwarded to you, you can sign up here. And read our mission statement here.   A message from ACT|The App Association: When the largest sellers on the app stores, with multi-billion-dollar valuations, come to Congress with proposals to reshape the mobile marketplace to suit their needs, policymakers should be rather skeptical. We urge Congress not to sacrifice consumers' most important privacy and security protections–and with them, the competitive prospects of small app companies–in order to further advantage the app stores' biggest winners. https://actonline.org/2022/04/04/give-small-developers-a-chance-not-higher-barriers-to-entry/     Looking for in-depth and actionable technology policy news? The Morning Tech newsletter is exclusively available to POLITICO Pro subscribers, please visit our website tolearn more about the benefits of a subscription.       Follow us on Twitter Ben Schreckinger @SchreckReports Derek Robertson @afternoondelete Konstantin Kakaes @kkakaes Heidi Vogt @HeidiVogt   Follow us

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