What we got wrong about the ‘she-cession’

Your definitive guide to women, politics and power.

Apr 01, 2022 View in browser   By Katelyn Fossett POLITICO illustration/iStock Happy Friday, rulers! I'm headed out early today to see a concert in Nashville. Any locals who have tips for brunch spots tomorrow (preferably one that doesn't require reservations)? Special thanks to Maya Parthasarathy for helping to put together this newsletter! It's now been two full years since Covid-19 lockdowns began, freezing large parts of the economy even as policymakers were truly unsure of the havoc those decisions might wreak or the benefits they might unleash. Pretty soon, it was clear there was one group that was losing out as a result of these sudden tectonic shifts in the economy: women. Their labor force participation plummeted to "the lowest level since 1988," read many headlines and articles. Women were struggling to juggle it all while working from home with little childcare support, the story went, and so their work was the first thing to go. Many were considering downshifting their careers, and others were already long gone. But a lot of us got that story wrong. Claudia Goldin, a Harvard economics professor, is out with a new report that finds many of the most dramatic predictions about women opting to downshift or leave their careers were not realized. She recalls a McKinsey-LeanIn report in particular that predicted "One in four women are [sic] considering downshifting their careers or leaving the workforce due to the impact of Covid-19." Women were struggling as they bore the brunt of increased caregiving responsibilities, but many of them managed to stay employed, she notes. "Even the largest decrease, for the hardest hit group — non-college graduates in spring 2020 — meant that about 1 in 15 [women] had exited the labor force," Goldin writes: "a far cry from the … statistics cited in the McKinsey-LeanIn survey and broadcast widely and persistently by the media." To be sure, there was a drop in employment during the pandemic, among men and women, and women were harder-hit. But education level was a much better predictor of who was affected than gender. Goldin compared the percentage of those "at work" in fall 2018 to those at work in fall 2020. (The phrase "at work" does not include those who were temporarily furloughed at their jobs.) Among female college graduates, those at work fell by 2.7 percentage points; among male college graduates, those at work fell by 2.6 percentage points. Among female non-college graduates, the same number fell by 5.7 percentage points; among male non-college graduates, it fell by 5.5 percentage points. "Gender differences month by month in employment outcomes, relative to pre-pandemic level, are not large," Golin writes in the report. "The big differences are by education rather than gender. One finding in the report that I found very interesting: The women who left the labor force were also likely to be those who had recently joined the labor force in the months immediately before the pandemic, Goldin found. In those months, from late 2019 to early winter 2020, the economy had low unemployment and women's labor force participation skyrocketed. The women who surged into the labor force then were very different demographically from those who stayed in the labor force throughout the pandemic. The increase in work force participation in the later months of 2019 was greatest among young, less educated women with young children. "It is to be expected that recent entrants [to the work force] are, on average, less attached," she writes. "But, this group was very large and somewhat less attached than in more ordinary times." Goldin studied a sample of women who joined the labor force at some point after April 2019 over a period of 10 months. Those women were far more likely to leave the work force after the onset of the Covid-19 lockdowns than a control group of women who had been consistently "in" the labor force before the surge months of 2019. So where does that leave us now? For the women who did keep their jobs throughout the pandemic, Goldin is optimistic about the way the pandemic reset working conditions and allowed demanding jobs to incorporate more flexibility. In non-pandemic times, with the rise of higher-paying and thus more demanding jobs — what Goldin calls "greedy jobs" — heterosexual couples were likely to fall into traditional gender roles, with women taking on more caregiving responsibilities and men taking on more work at the office. "Couples under these circumstances are enticed to give up couple equity, and in the process throw gender equality under the bus," she said in an interview. But now, demanding jobs are more flexible and productive, Goldin said, which means that women are more likely to take on those greedy jobs. I asked her if she thought that shift would last. "I see no reason to believe it won't," she said.   Sponsored by Business Leader members of Women Rule: The Exchange: As inflation rates soar and disruptions to the global supply chain persist, all eyes are on the nation's economic recovery. But getting back on track in an inclusive and sustainable way is no easy feat. POLITICO Focus connected with members of Women Rule: The Exchange to learn about the strategies and solutions that will power an economy that benefits all. Join the Conversation.   POLITICO Special Report AP Photo/Alex Brandon "Jackson hearings could inspire GOP's next judicial battle line," by Marianne LeVine for POLITICO: "Republicans' push for Ketanji Brown Jackson's sentencing records could sharpen a new knife for the Senate's increasingly bitter judicial nomination fights — one that Democrats are eager to dull. "The GOP insistence on so-called pre-sentencing documents from Jackson's time on the federal bench became a flashpoint in her Supreme Court confirmation hearings. Republicans accused Democrats of withholding information about her sentencing record in child pornography cases, while President Joe Biden's party warned that releasing the sealed documents prepared by court probation officers would set a problematic standard for future nominees. "With Jackson on a seemingly firm if nearly party-line track to Senate confirmation, Republicans are leaving themselves room to make judicial nominees' sentencing choices an issue again. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) even left the door open to scrutinizing the sentencing moves of J. Michelle Childs, his preferred home-state pick for the high court nomination, while Democrats are already drawing a line against future demands for records that contain sensitive information." " Siena poll: Hochul leads Cuomo by 8 points in hypothetical primary matchup," by Bill Mahoney for POLITICO: "Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo trails successor Kathy Hochul by only 8 percentage points in a hypothetical Democratic primary matchup, a poll released by the Siena College Research Institute on Monday found. Hochul would receive 38 percent of the vote. That compares to 30 percent for Cuomo; 10 percent for Rep. Tom Suozzi, and 7 percent for New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams. "There are signs, however, that 30 percent of the vote might be close to the ceiling of support Cuomo could receive. Only 33 percent of registered Democrats wanted him to actually run in the primary, and only 32 percent thought he did not sexually harass multiple women, the Albany-area polling institute found. "The former governor was viewed favorably by 32 percent of all registered voters and unfavorably by 60 percent in the poll that was conducted from March 20-24. That suggests that the multimillion-dollar ad campaign to improve his image that he launched a month ago did not move the needle much — in February, Siena found his favorability to be 33 percent to 60 percent." "' The Dots Were All There. We Just Couldn't Connect Them,'" by Michele A. Berdy for Politico Magazine Number of the Week Read more here. MUST READS AP Photo/Stacie Freudenberg, File "Inside the plan to create an abortion refuge for a post-Roe era," by Caroline Kitchener for the Washington Post : "FAIRVIEW HEIGHTS, Ill. — When the woman called Planned Parenthood to schedule her abortion, Alexandria Ball picked up the phone and explained exactly what would happen next. "Ball and her colleagues would book her bus ticket to Illinois. "They would put her up in a hotel. "They would help find funding for her abortion. "And they would pay for her 15-year-old son to come along. "'Is this a dream?' asked the pregnant mother from western Missouri. "Attached to an abortion clinic on the Missouri-Illinois border, this first-of-its-kind call center offers a window into the splintered future of abortion care in the United States if the Supreme Court decides this summer to roll back Roe v. Wade , the landmark decision that established a constitutional right to abortion. Since the call center opened in December, Ball and her colleagues have been laying the groundwork to turn their operation into a blue-state abortion refuge for patients from across the South and Midwest, whose more conservative home states are poised to restrict abortion access if Roe falls." " Reports of sexual violence involving Russian soldiers are multiplying, Ukrainian officials say.," by Cora Engelbrecht in the New York Times: "The crime first came to light last week, when Ukraine's prosecutor general, Iryna Venediktova, said in a Facebook post that a Russian soldier had killed an unarmed civilian and then repeatedly raped his wife. Days later, the White House said it was concerned about emerging reports of sexual violence in Ukraine. "Then on Monday night, The Times of London published the woman's chilling account. Using the pseudonym Natalya, she told a reporter she had been in her home in a village near the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, when she heard footsteps and a shot rang out. Moments later her husband lay dead outside her front door, and two Russian soldiers were at her side, one holding a gun to her head. "'I shot your husband because he was a Nazi,' the gunman told her, before he and the other soldier raped her, as her 4-year-old son sobbed in a boiler room next door, according to the Times. She said she was later raped a second time by the soldiers, and eventually managed to flee to western Ukraine with her son. … "Ukrainian officials contend that numerous cases of rape and sexual violence have occurred in the country since Russia's invasion began on Feb. 24. "Maria Mezentseva, a Ukrainian member of parliament, detailed the woman's account to Sky News on Sunday and said there were 'many more victims.' She did not provide further details or say how she learned of other assaults, but said that she expected them to come to light once the victims were 'ready to talk.'" " A bar of their own: A new Portland spot will only show women's sports," by Anne Branigin for the Washington Post   Sponsored by Business Leader members of Women Rule: The Exchange: In the Round: A conversation with today's leaders.   Quote of the Week Three women, including Faeser, are leading Germany's new muscular foreign policy. Read more here. Transitions Virgin Galactic has promoted veteran pilot and retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Col. Kelly Latimer to Director of Flight Test. She currently serves as a pilot for the mothership, VMS Eve. … Lindsey Curnutte is now deputy comms director for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' reelect. She most recently was press secretary for Heritage Action for America, and is a Ken Buck alum. (h/t Playbook) … Nicole Nason is joining Boeing as vice president of federal affairs for commercial aviation, sustainability and corporate policy. She most recently served as chief safety officer and head of external affairs at Cavnue, an infrastructure company supporting autonomous vehicles. (h/t Politico Influence) … Nicole Tisdale will leave the NSC at the end of this week, where she's been a director for legislative affairs. She'll return to her small business, Advocacy Blueprints, and launch a new initiative focused on countering disinformation and foreign malign influence in minority communities. (h/t Daniel Lippman) …   Sponsored by Business Leader members of Women Rule: The Exchange: As inflation rates soar and disruptions to the global supply chain persist, all eyes are on the nation's economic recovery. But getting back on track in an inclusive and sustainable way is no easy feat. Today, women are still finding themselves disproportionately affected by pervasive inequities when it comes to leadership, wages, and skills-building. Bridging these profound gender 'gaps' will be paramount to the country's ability to achieve sustained growth for the future. But where do we start? POLITICO Focus sat down with members of Women Rule: The Exchange to answer this very question. Click here to see what leaders had to say about the strategies and solutions that will power an economy that benefits all.     Follow us on Twitter Katelyn Fossett @KatelynFossett   Follow us

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