IT'S THE COST OF LIVING, STUPID: Both candidates threw themselves into the middle of Russia's invasion of Ukraine — but in very different ways. Macron tried to cast himself as peace-maker in chief, to relatively little practical or political effect. Le Pen, on the other hand, made a stronger political bet: She saw that the invasion would create huge cost-of-living pressures in France no matter the outcome of Macron's diplomacy. By siding with those who would struggle to make ends meet amid higher inflation, Le Pen is creating a bigger base than her past Euroskeptic and immigration skeptic policies have allowed. She was able to do it quietly, far away from Russia headlines that dominate mainstream media, and achieve two other important political wins: blurring her dodgy relationships with Russian politicians and banks, while also skewering Macron on the existing impression millions of voters have of him — that he's out-of-touch with working families. (Remember the violent Yellow Jackets protest movement his gas tax plans sparked?) EU AND NATO NERVOUS ABOUT LE PEN: Le Pen has triggered alarm by stating her desire to pull the EU's only nuclear power out of the alliance's integrated command structure "so as to be no longer caught up in conflicts that are not ours." For the EU, the issue has always been that she will do everything she can to slow down or unwind EU integration; and now, added to that mix, is that Le Pen threatens to undo Western unity against Russia. THE EU RISKS PARALYSIS BUT NOT FREXIT IF LE PEN WINS: Le Pen's National Rally party no longer proposes to leave the EU, the euro currency and the bloc's visa-free travel zone: important policy changes that get lost in knee-jerk coverage of the French election. The really important element of those policy shifts is that they give Le Pen a better chance of winning April 24 because the policies make her more palatable and harder to attack. If she does win, her new EU policies put her firmly in the Poland and Hungary skeptic camp, meaning those countries could work to form a new faction within the EU. Prediction: The EU will not collapse, but could divide into different integration lanes, or be frozen on key decisions. The current high level of Russia sanctions coordination would, for example, have been nearly impossible to achieve under Le Pen. 48 PERCENT WILL BE ANGRY NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS APRIL 24: France is now stuck with American levels of polarization. While Le Pen won't be able to pull off the collapse of the EU, she is already succeeding in fomenting deep-seated distrust of the institutions that make society work, and which have at times failed the French people. In other words: The rot is setting in, regardless of whether Macron remains in the Élysée, or not. NOTHING LEFT TO SAY: France's two biggest parties (until five years ago) — the center-right Republicans and center-left Socialists won a combined 7 percent of the vote. THE VOTER PEEL GAME: Half of those who voted did not vote for Macron or Le Pen, so the race is now on to court that fragmented, disappointed group of around 15 million people. Left-winger Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who nearly outflanked Le Pen, urged his voters not to vote for Le Pen in the second round. "You must not give any vote to Mrs. Le Pen," he repeated three times, to applause, during his concession speech. Yannick Jadot, the candidate of the Green coalition, was more explicit: He asked his supporters to stop the far right by voting for Macron. Eric Zemmour's far-right fans applauded when their leader said he would vote for Le Pen. UKRAINE FRONTS PUTIN IS WINNING THE ECONOMIC WAR: Sanctions have started to hurt Russia, but it's a very mixed picture. The World Bank is now predicting Ukraine's economy will shrink by 45 percent in 2022, four times Russia's 11 percent contraction. The worst-case scenario modeled by the bank imagines a 75 percent fall in Ukrainian GDP. Russia is rolling in gas cash: Comparing Russia's pipeline gas revenue we can see that exports are up and fetching much higher prices compared to a year ago. In January 2022, Russia earned $9.5 billion from the pipelines, compared to $3.4 billion a year earlier, and another $1.3 billion from LNG shipped exports. For the first time, Russian gas exports ($10.8 billion) outstripped oil exports ($10.1 billion). If those pipelines were to be subject to an energy embargo, the cost to the Russian treasury would be $3.5 billion per month. h/t Janis Kluge RUSSIA FINALLY HAS A SINGLE COMMANDER: Aleksandr V. Dvornikov, the Russian general now in charge, previously directed Russian forces in Syria. GETTING SERIOUS ABOUT WAR CRIMES: Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra hosted International Criminal Court prosecutor Karim Khan for breakfast today, and the EU's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, met Khan last night. The goal: assist Khan's war crimes investigation , including via providing evidence training to Ukrainian investigators. END GAME FOR RUSSIAN CIVIL SOCIETY: Continuing a years-long trend, Moscow is kicking out or shutting down another batch of nonprofit organizations. The group affected this weekend includes Carnegie Russia and a group of German political foundations.
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