| | | | |  | | By Stephanie Murray | | | | | 
U.S. Senate candidate J.D. Vance speaks with prospective voters. | Gaelen Morse/Getty Images | ON THE AIRWAVES — The blockbuster Senate primary in Ohio is only a day away. The biggest action will be in the Republican primary, where five major candidates are running to replace Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) in the battleground state. The race is still wide open. A quarter of Republican primary voters are undecided on who to vote for, according to a recent Fox News poll of the race. The survey showed J.D. Vance, endorsed by former President Donald Trump, with 23 percent of support. Former state Attorney General Josh Mandel was in second place with 18 percent of support from GOP primary voters. The nasty, unsettled primary has cost millions on the airwaves. Republican candidates and outside groups have spent a combined $69.8 million, while Democrats have only spent $3.4 million. Here's a sampling of what Ohio voters have seen on television in the final week of the race. Trump's endorsement has dominated television, for good and for bad, since the former president gave Vance's campaign a shot of adrenaline last month. Vance is promoting the former president's backing with a 30-second ad and a 15-second version. "Trump fought back, and so have I," Vance says in the commercial, which features a TV news anchor announcing the endorsement. The pro-Vance Protect Ohio Values super PAC is airing its own Trump endorsement ad, too. Meanwhile, the Club for Growth is attacking Vance as a "fraud" in a recent ad. The group endorsed Mandel and has spent $8.9 million supporting him in the primary. Trump urged the super PAC to end its ad campaign , and the group refused. The anti-Vance ad features voters who question his pro-Trump bonafides. "I love Trump, but he's getting it wrong with J.D. Vance," the ad says, pointing to past comments where Vance suggested he may vote for 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton over Trump. Mandel lost out on Trump's endorsement, but he's still pitching himself as a pro-Trump candiate on the air, a signal of how large the former president looms in the primary. Mandel's recent ad pitches him as "Pro-GOD, Pro-TRUMP" and "Pro-LIFE." "I'm running to save America for my kids, for your kids and for your grandkids," Mandel says, invoking a phrase Trump uses as the title of one of his political groups. Gibbons, who lost support from March to April in the poll, is taking aim at Mandel as a faux conservative. Gibbons was in third place with 13 percent of support from Republican primary voters, down from 22 percent in March. "Josh Mandel isn't conservative. He's a con man," says a recent ad, which accuses Mandel of campaigning with never Trumpers and compromising his values for votes. The commercial calls Gibbons a "Trump-tough job creator." The mudslinging has become so ubiquitous that Republican Matt Dolan is trying to rise above it on TV. "My opponents are focused on name calling instead of results," Dolan says in his TV spot , which references the nose-to-nose confrontation between Republican Mike Gibbons and Mandel at a Senate debate. "They attack and insult each other — even had a near fistfight. So forget all their nonsense." Dolan's strategy to run as a traditional Republican and stay out of the Trump lane could be paying off, gaining ground in the Fox News poll. Good Monday morning. Email me at smurray@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr. Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com . Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro and @allymutnick. Days until the Indiana and Ohio primaries: 1 Days until the Nebraska and West Virginia primaries: 8 Days until the Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries: 15 Days until the Texas runoff and the Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia primaries: 22 Days until the California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota primaries: 36 Days until the general election: 190 Days until the 2024 election: 918
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| | | TRUMP CARD — "Trumpworld braces for 'a couple of ugly nights' in May," by David Siders, POLITICO: "The first big test of former President Donald Trump's clout comes Tuesday in Ohio's bitterly fought Senate primary, where J.D. Vance surged into the lead after winning Trump's endorsement. A Vance victory would remind his party that Trump is still king. But the acclaim will be fleeting. The rest of May looks nowhere near as good for the former president, who has expended his political capital in a series of contests that are already laying bare the limits of his post-presidential influence on the GOP." — "Arizona GOP Senate frontrunner loses lead amid air assault," by Natalie Allison, POLITICO: "Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich has fallen out of first place in the state's Republican Senate primary, a slide that corresponds with aggressive advertising spending by his opponents — and Donald Trump's ire. For nearly a year, Brnovich held a steady lead in the primary to take on Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, a key race as the GOP seeks to take back the Senate majority. PRIMARY SOURCES — "The GOP senator who faulted Trump for Jan. 6 — and lived to tell about it," by Adam Wren, POLITICO: "It's been nearly six years since Todd Young pulled off one of the biggest Senate upsets of 2016. Now, up for reelection in barn-red Indiana, the former chair of the Republican Senate campaign arm has pulled off an even more unlikely victory: avoiding a primary challenger. Young is one of only four Senate GOP incumbents without the golden ticket of a Donald Trump endorsement this year. THE KEYSTONE STATE — "'We all know he's not a conservative': Oz battles MAGA pushback," by Holly Otterbein, POLITICO: "Landing Donald Trump's endorsement has given Dr. Mehmet Oz a bump in the polls. But it hasn't erased doubts about his conservative bona fides. Or quelled concerns about his past positions on abortion. Or buried his closest rival. In short, the endorsement hasn't transformed Pennsylvania's closely watched GOP Senate primary." — "Mehmet Oz is a top Senate candidate in Pennsylvania. What are his ties to the state?" by Jonathan Tamari, Ryan Briggs and Jonathan Lai, Philadelphia Inquirer: "Mehmet Oz lived in North Jersey for more than three decades. The celebrity known as 'Dr. Oz' has invited magazines and TV cameras to his home overlooking the Hudson River and Manhattan skyline to showcase his lifestyle and advice. Now he's running for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania. When he leapt into one of the country's most crucial campaigns, Oz, a Republican, said he moved to the Keystone State in late 2020, specifically to the Montgomery County home owned by his wife's parents." THE BUCKEYE STATE — "President Joe Biden endorses U.S. Rep. Shontel Brown's re-election bid," by Sabrina Eaton, Cleveland Plain Dealer: "President Joe Biden on Friday endorsed U.S. Rep. Shontel Brown's bid for re-election in her hotly contested primary rematch with former Ohio Sen. Nina Turner ." — New Democrat Coalition Action Fund launched its first-ever independent expenditure this year to boost Brown in the OH-11 primary against Turner. The digital ads urge voters to reelect Brown, who beat Turner in an open special election last year. NEW ALLEGATIONS — "A second woman steps forward by name to allege Charles Herbster groped her," by Aaron Sanderford, Nebraska Examiner: "A second woman who alleged in a Nebraska Examiner article earlier this month that Nebraska gubernatorial candidate Charles Herbster had groped her came forward Friday and allowed her name to be used. Elizabeth Todsen was a 23-year-old employee of State Sen. Dave Murman when she attended the 2019 Elephant Remembers fundraiser for the Douglas County Republican Party." BALLOT BATTLE — "New bill will help Hochul remove Benjamin from ballot," by Joseph Konig and Zack Fink, Spectrum News: "State legislators are poised to pass legislation as early as next week that would allow candidates indicted, charged, or arrested be removed from the ballot, sources told NY1 Friday. The move comes as Gov. Kathy Hochul is looking for a way to remove her former Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin from the Democratic primary ballot after he was indicted and arrested on bribery charges." JUST PEACHY — "GOP debate in Georgia's 14th District is all about Marjorie Tayor Greene," by Tia Mitchell, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: "Each of U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene 's five challengers in the Republican primary for Georgia's 14th Congressional District said they would be more effective and less controversial if voters sent them to Washington. They hammered this point throughout Sunday's debate featuring all six candidates." — "Republican candidates plead their cases in wide-open 10th District race," by Stephen Fowler, Georgia Public Broadcasting: "Term limits, the economy and social issues dominated the Republican primary debate for east Georgia's 10th Congressional District Sunday." — "'Musical chairs': Democrats clash over shifting boundaries in Georgia's 7th District," by Shannon McCaffrey, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: "Lucy McBath 's Democratic rivals on Sunday accused the congresswoman of deceiving voters and helping to hand control of the U.S. House to Republicans. The sharp attacks came during Sunday's Atlanta Press Club Democratic primary debate for Georgia's 7th Congressional District." MIDTERM EFFECT — "Drug Sentencing Bill Is in Limbo as Midterm Politics Paralyze Congress," by Carl Hulse, The New York Times: "The Equal Act would appear to be a slam dunk even in a badly divided Congress. … Yet with control of Congress at stake and Republicans weaponizing a law-and-order message against Democrats in their midterm election campaigns, the fate of the measure is in doubt. Democrats worry that bringing it up would allow Republicans to demand a series of votes that could make them look soft on crime and lax on immigration." SCANDAL — "Pressure Mounts on Cawthorn as Scandals Pile Up," by Jonathan Weisman and Annie Karni, The New York Times: "Besieged by multiplying scandals and salacious accusations, Representative Madison Cawthorn, Republican of North Carolina, is under mounting pressure from both parties to end his short career in Congress."
| | | — "Manchin cuts ad for West Virginia Republican facing Trump-endorsed rival in primary," by Veronica Stracqualursi, CNN: "Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin appears to be taking sides in the bitter Republican primary in his home state of West Virginia that pits US Rep. David McKinley against Trump-backed Rep. Alex Mooney. In a 30-second video ad released Friday, Manchin says: 'Alex Mooney has proven he's all about Alex Mooney. But West Virginians know David McKinley is all about us.'"
| | | — "Pro-abortion rights groups to spend $150M on midterms," by Elena Schneider, POLITICO: "A trio of pro-abortion rights groups is rolling out a $150 million spending plan ahead of the 2022 midterms. The groups — Planned Parenthood Action Fund, NARAL Pro-Choice America and EMILY's List — will spend the nine-figure investment on paid ads, field programs, messaging research and polling in nine states, all of which feature top congressional and gubernatorial races this fall." — "Nearly all Democratic frontliners in the House outraised their opponents in the most recent quarter." by Sarah Ferris and Anthony Adragna, POLITICO: "We've run the numbers and all but two of the 35 House Democratic frontline members outraised their Republican opponents during the most recent quarter. That money may not be enough in a hostile political environment but certainly can't hurt."
| | | — "GOP strong on crime, boosted by trust in inflation: POLL," by Gary Langer, ABC News: "Broad Republican advantages in trust to tame inflation and handle crime are keeping the party in a strong position for the 2022 midterm elections in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, albeit off the historic peak in vote preference the GOP attained last fall. Americans trust the Republican Party over the Democrats to handle inflation, by 19% points; the economy more generally, by 14 points; and crime, by a dozen points." — "Republicans have the advantage with voters in 2022 elections, poll finds," by Domenico Montanaro, NPR: "All signs are pointing to a difficult midterm election for President Biden and Democrats, and a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll has fresh evidence of that. Of the 1,162 registered voters surveyed, 47% said they are more likely to vote for the Republican in their district, as opposed to 44% who said Democrats." — "As governor's race comes into focus, it's Maura Healey's moment, new Suffolk/Globe poll finds," by Matt Stout, Boston Globe: "As economic anxiety grows among Massachusetts voters, Attorney General Maura Healey would lead by a 2-to-1 margin over either potential Republican nominee for governor in a November matchup, a new Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll found, her advantages fueled by appeal among independent voters, the state's most crucial bloc."
| | | | INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | — "Trump's criminal justice reform bill becomes persona non grata among GOPers," by Meridith McGraw, POLITICO: "When Donald Trump signed a long-sought criminal justice reform measure into law in 2018, he had visions of using the legislation to make major inroads with Black and moderate swing voters. The First Step Act was not just hailed as a rare bipartisan achievement for the 45th president but as the beginning of a major shift in GOP politics, one that would move the party past the 1980s tough-on-crime mindset to a focus on rehabilitation, racial fairness and second chances." — "Evidence mounts of GOP involvement in Trump election schemes," by Farnoush Amiri, Associated Press: "A review of the evidence finds new details about how, long before the attack on the Capitol unfolded, several GOP lawmakers were participating directly in Trump's campaign to reverse the results of a free and fair election." CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY — "We've endorsed J.P., right? J.D. Mandel. He's doing great." — Former President Donald Trump, who endorsed Ohio Senate hopeful J.D. Vance, confusing the candidate with opponent Josh Mandel. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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