CAGOP strategy: 'Stick your head in the hole'

Presented by The Nature Conservancy: Jeremy B. White and Lara Korte's must-read briefing on politics and government in the Golden State

May 04, 2022 View in browser   By Lara Korte, Juhi Doshi and Chris Ramirez Presented by The Nature Conservancy THE BUZZ — THE 'RIGHT-TO-LIFE' PARTY: The Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade just got a lot less hypothetical. For some California Republicans, that creates a tricky calculus. The draft majority opinion obtained by POLITICO sent shockwaves through the country on Tuesday, igniting an immediate and visceral reaction from abortion rights proponents. As Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democrats in the Legislature move quickly to draft a state constitutional amendment, their Republican counterparts have stayed comparatively quiet, choosing instead to focus on what they say is the ruling party's attempt to deflect California voters' attention away from rising inflation and homelessness. Those who did comment on the draft opinion also criticized the "leak" itself, if not the justices' intent. "No SCOTUS ruling in this case will change the laws in our state, but California Democrats are desperate to focus on anything other than their failed one-party rule," CAGOP Chair Jessica Millan Patterson said in a statement. Assembly Republican Leader James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) called Democrats' proposed amendment "simply unnecessary." Abortion access is a polarizing issue in any state, and a strong condemnation of Roe has the potential to alienate the Californians that Republicans need this year — young, college-educated women and no-party-preference voters. A majority of California voters want Roe to remain the law of the land, according to a survey last year by the Public Policy Institute of California , including nearly 60 percent of Republicans. There's also the fact that California's abortion laws have virtually no chance of changing if Roe is indeed overturned (see the fiery statements from Monday). On the other hand, there is certainly a bloc of GOP voters who want — and expect — their elected officials to fight for tighter abortion restrictions. While not a centerpiece of its messaging this year, the California GOP does include the "right to life" as one of its party platforms and says the party encourages "the reversal of the Roe v. Wade decision." But this could be why many California Republicans aren't talking explicitly about abortion access, in light of this new development — one step in the wrong direction could cost them much needed support. "The only strategy you can do is the ostrich strategy," said Mike Madrid, a California Republican consultant. "Stick your head in the hole, pretend it's not happening and hope that nobody sees you." Newsom and legislative leaders want to get an abortion amendment on the November ballot, which could certainly raise turnout. But Republicans argue there are more important issues that will drive voters to the polls: inflation, gas prices and public safety. Rob Stutzman, a GOP consultant, said the abortion issue could give Democrats a lifeline as they head into a "slaughterhouse" this November, but it's not a given. The abortion issue "could energize [voters]," he said. "But people are also energized and frustrated about other issues affecting their daily lives as well." BUENOS DÍAS, good Wednesday morning. Democratic lawmakers say California could see an influx of abortion patients. Read POLITICO's breakdown of which states are planning to restrict access. Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up jwhite@politico.com and lkorte@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte.  QUOTE OF THE DAY — "California will be the national beacon for reproductive justice." California Sen. Nancy Skinner (D-Berkeley) supporting a proposed amendment to enshrine abortion rights in the California constitution.  TWEET OF THE DAY — From brand-new Assemblymember Matt Haney (D-San Francisco) @MattHaneySF: "Today is my first day as Assemblymember. My Mom joined me on the Assembly floor for the Swearing-In. Ready to work hard every day for the people of Assembly District 17." WHERE'S GAVIN? In Los Angeles, where he's expected to issue remarks on the Roe draft opinion at 9:15 a.m. A message from The Nature Conservancy: GOVERNOR & LEGISLATORS: Fund Nature or Lose It.  Last year California made a historic commitment to protect 30% of its natural lands by 2030, but we must dedicate resources now in order to deliver on that commitment. Unless the Governor and Legislature build on last year's commitments to nature, we will fall short of protecting our state's biodiversity. A meaningful 30x30 conservation budget means $1B for programs that actually protect nature.   Top Talkers ROE DRAFT FALLOUT — "'We will be ready': Biden responds to draft abortion opinion," by POLITICO's Quint Forgey: Biden acknowledged that White House officials "do not know whether this draft is genuine, or whether it reflects the final decision" of the Supreme Court. But he said he believes "that a woman's right to choose is fundamental, Roe has been the law of the land for almost fifty years, and basic fairness and the stability of our law demand that it not be overturned." POLITICS IN ACTION — " Could California Democrats could benefit from an abortion battle? Here's how," by Sac Bee's David Lightman: "Suddenly, abortion has the potential to figure prominently in the races for California's swing House districts–and maybe in which party controls Congress after the November midterm elections." LGBTQ+ RIGHTS — " Draft Roe v. Wade ruling sends panic through LGBTQ community: 'They're coming for us next,'" by SF Chronicle's Dustin Gardiner: "The situation led many in the LGBTQ community to question if overturning such a foundational section of privacy law in the United States could lead to a patchwork of laws in Republican states that roll back the community's rights." THERE'S AN ABORTION ANGLE … " Police apprehend climber at top of Salesforce Tower," by SFGATE's Amy Graff.  CAMPAIGN MODE — "Caruso donated to politicians opposing abortion in the past. Will that matter to L.A. voters?" by the LA Times' Julia Wick: "The issue at hand isn't whether candidates say they support abortion rights now. It's whether Caruso — a former Republican who is now one of the front-runners in the race to replace Mayor Eric Garcetti — supported abortion rights in the past, what changed and how much L.A. voters will care amid a campaign season dominated by discussion of homelessness and public safety." — " Many homeless people resist group shelters even as L.A. mayoral candidates push to build more," by Benjamin Oreskes and Doug Smith. ENDORSEMENT — "Dave Jones' climate record gives him the edge to represent Sacramento in California Senate, " via the Sac Bee's Editorial Board: "A Harvard Law School graduate and former Sacramento councilman and state assemblyman, Jones has decades of experience representing Californians at the local and state level. He has authored policies that increased affordable housing, required a living wage, reformed health care and advanced the rights of women and the LGBTQ community." SPORTS BETTING: A ballot measure to legalize online sports betting, known as Californians for Solutions to Homelessness and Mental Health Support, has submitted 1.6 million petition signatures to qualify their ballot measure for the 2022 November ballot. The measure, backed by gaming giants DraftKings and FanDuel , needs 1,096,853 valid signatures to qualify for the November ballot.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR — "California's largest state worker union reaches agreement for monthly telework stipends," by the Sac Bee'sWes Venteicher: "Workers represented by California's largest state employee union will be eligible for monthly telework stipends under a new agreement." A CASE FOR CONCERN — "Medical Parole Got Them Out Of State Prison. Now They're In A Decertified Nursing Home," by LAist's Aaron Mendelson and Elly Yu: "California has consolidated nearly every medical parole patient at a single facility — one with a troubled track record." — "Three charged with murder in connection with Sacramento mass shooting. Here's what we know," by the Sac Bee's Sam Stanton: "Sacramento prosecutors have filed the first murder charges in the April 3 gang shootout downtown, charging brothers Smiley Martin and Dandrae Martin and fugitive Mtula Payton each with three counts stemming from the shooting deaths of three women killed in the crossfire." DIM THE LIGHTS — "Get Ready for Another Energy Price Spike: High Electric Bills ," by the NYT's Ivan Penn.   A message from The Nature Conservancy:   BIDEN, HARRIS AND THE HILL — McConnell closes in on Roe after years of pushing the courts rightward, by POLITICO's Burgess Everett: There's a direct line from the Senate minority leader's decision to hold a high court vacancy open in 2016 to the potential demise of Roe six years later. McConnell's blockade of Merrick Garland, the Obama Supreme Court nominee who's now attorney general, set the stage for a 6-3 conservative majority where Chief Justice John Roberts is no longer the swing vote on contentious issues such as abortion access. VP'S TAKE — Harris on GOP's anti-abortion push: 'How dare they,'" by POLITICO's Eugene Daniels and Myah Ward: Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday delivered the Biden administration's most forceful defense of reproductive rights since POLITICO reported on a draft majority opinion showing the Supreme Court has voted to strike down Roe v. Wade. SILICON VALLEYLAND YOUR TURN, CA TECH GIANTS — "Amazon to reimburse U.S. employees who travel for abortions, other treatments," by Reuters' Jeffrey Dastin: "Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O), the second-largest U.S. private employer, told its staff on Monday it will pay up to $4,000 in travel expenses annually for non-life threatening medical treatments including abortions, according to a message seen by Reuters." MAKING THINGS PUBLIC — "Elon Musk Plans to Take Twitter Public a Few Years After Buyout ," by the WSJ's Cara Lombardo and Eliot Brown: "Mr. Musk said he plans to stage an initial public offering of Twitter in as little as three years of buying it, according to people familiar with the matter. The deal is expected to close later this year, subject to conditions including the approval of Twitter shareholders and regulators, the company has said."   INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED:  Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.     MIXTAPE — "Skeleton in barrel revealed by receding waters of Lake Mead are of a gunshot victim, police say," by the L ATimes' Christian Martinez. — "A year later, Levi Strauss still hasn't agreed on terms for S.F. HQ lease," by San Francisco Business Times' Laura Waxmann. VULTURE CULTURE — " Condors soar again over Northern California coastal redwoods," by the AP. GO ON, GUESS — "California built thousands of new housing units in 2021. These cities added the most ," by the Sac Bee's Lindsey Holden. THE MORE YOU KNOW — "Griffith Park is named for a guy who shot his wife — and other true stories of L.A. parks," by LA Times' Patt Morrison.   TRANSITIONS WEDDING — Maggie Engler, a senior data scientist at Twitter and a lecturer in the School of Information at UT Austin, recently married Joe Nissen, senior project mechanical engineer at Lutron Electronics. The couple are high school sweethearts and met in tenth grade in Alexandria, Va. Pic BIRTHDAYS Deborah Shainman Szekely … Shana Mansbach of Speaker Nancy Pelosi's office … Steve Rosenberg A message from The Nature Conservancy: GOVERNOR AND LEGISLATORS: Is California really committed to protecting our biodiversity? Biodiversity isn't just a list of California's species; it's the web of life that sustains us and makes California such an incredible place. But our web is falling apart, and nature needs our help NOW! There is a clear path to achieving California's goal to conserve 30% of our wildlife habitat by 2030. That path requires $1 billion a year for the next five years to close the nature funding gap. The choice is clear. Either we meet this moment and protect California's amazing biodiversity and unique landscapes – or we fail our children and future generations. Funding nature means investing in programs and partnerships at the Wildlife Conservation Board and the State's regional conservancies that will do this work with urgency. $1B FOR BIODIVERSITY: TNC urges the Governor and Legislature to increase funding for biodiversity to save California.   CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here. Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you're promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.   Follow us on Twitter Jeremy B. White @JeremyBWhite Lara Korte @lara_korte POLITICO California @politicoca   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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