Inside this week’s nasty GOP primaries

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May 09, 2022 View in browser   By Stephanie Murray Presented by PREMION TOP LINE NASTY IN NEBRASKA AND WEST VIRGINIA — We are one day away from two very ugly Republican primaries. First up: West Virginia. The state lost a congressional seat this redistricting cycle, pitting GOP Reps. Alex Mooney and David McKinley against one another in a member-vs-member primary. There's been no shortage of big names getting into the race: Former President Donald Trump is backing Mooney, while McKinley has endorsements from GOP Gov. Jim Justice and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who crossed party lines to get in on the action. Then there's Nebraska, where any of the top three Republicans could win the primary to replace term-limited Gov. Pete Ricketts. The wide-open race has been roiled by sexual misconduct allegations against Charles Herbster, an agribusiness executive endorsed by Trump. Ricketts-endorsed Jim Pillen, a businessperson and pig farmer, and state Sen. Brett Lindstrom are the other top GOP candidates. The thing both races have in common? A whole lot of nastiness on the airwaves. Morning Score has a roundup of five TV ads to watch to get a taste of both primaries ahead of Tuesday night. The WV-02 district saw 27 TV ads over the last year, and the spots aired on broadcast 19,930 times, which doesn't include cable, according to AdImpact. Nebraska saw even more: Candidates and outside groups aired 72 ads, which appeared on broadcast 38,623 times (not including cable). Mooney's "MAGA alert": Mooney is leaning hard into his Trump endorsement, airing a "MAGA alert" commercial in the final month of the race. "We interrupt this broadcast for a breaking MAGA alert. President Trump warned us about RINOs, sellouts and known losers. David McKinley proved him right," the ad says, bashing McKinley as a "liberal." McKinley uses the F word: McKinley slams Mooney as "desperate" and a "fraud" in an ad that began airing last week. The commercial bashes Mooney and the conservative Club for Growth for airing attack ads in the WV-02 primary. "Mooney's desperate and with no answers for why he's potentially facing prison time," the 30-second spot says. "Mooney and his Washington special interest group are spending millions lying about David McKinley." Pillen takes aim at "Missouri Millionaire": Pillen bashes Herbster in Nebraska as a liar in a recent TV ad. The 30-second spot accuses Herbster of being a carpetbagger and dodging taxes while donating money to politicians. "Tax-dodging, tax-hiking Missouri millionaire Charles Herbster. When his lips are moving, he's lying," the ad says. Herbster opens the opposition research book: Herbster is attacking Pillen over immigration and critical race theory in an ad that began airing last week. "Pillen gave a radical chancellor millions of your tax dollars to teach students racist, hateful views of our nation," the ad claims, before going on to allege Pillen hired undocumented workers and falsified documents. "Wrong on CRT, wrong on immigration, wrong for Nebraska." Ricketts-linked group goes there: The outside group Conservative Nebraska has gone after Herbster and Lindstrom throughout the primary. The group has a new ad calling Herbster a "beauty pageant king" for his role in judging beauty pageants, weeks after he was accused of sexual assault . "Herbster joined pageants from Nebraska to Ohio to Bangkok, Thailand, all so he could judge countless young women and teenage girls. What Herbster did, you decide. Unusual, bizarre or inappropriate?" Herbster slammed the ad, from a group with ties to Ricketts, as a "smear job." POLITICO will have results on our homepage Tuesday night after polls close in Nebraska and West Virginia. Good Monday morning. Email me at smurray@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr. Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro and @allymutnick. Days until the Nebraska and West Virginia primaries: 1 Days until the Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries: 8 Days until the Texas runoff and the Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia primaries: 15 Days until the California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota primaries: 29 Days until the general election: 183 Days until the 2024 election: 911   A message from PREMION: For winning campaigns, every CTV impression counts With more and more voters cutting the cord, CTV is an essential media channel for engaging them. A new report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion helps political marketers navigate the increasingly fragmented and complex streaming TV marketplace and provides insights for effective planning and buying of CTV advertising. Download the complimentary report, Streaming TV and the Political Market: Navigating CTV Advertising in the 2022 Campaign Cycle here.   Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You'll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day's biggest stories. CAMPAIGN INTEL SCOTUS FALLOUT — "Threat to Roe puts GOP on defense in 2022 battlegrounds," by Natalie Allison and Holly Otterbein, POLITICO: "In the top Senate battlegrounds, Democrats are buying up television time and sounding off at every opportunity about Republican plans to curtail abortion rights. They have seized on the moment — and consider it a possible turning point. Many Republicans, though, are shrugging." — "Democratic AG candidates pitch themselves as the last line of defense on abortion," by Alice Miranda Ollstein, POLITICO Pro: "State attorneys general are poised to have unprecedented influence over the future of abortion access — and they want to make sure voters know it. Even before last week's explosive disclosure of a Supreme Court draft opinion abolishing Roe v. Wade, Democratic candidates running for an office voters often overlook were pitching themselves as the last line of defense for the right to terminate a pregnancy." MIDTERM MESSAGING — "The Democrats' last, best chance to save the House," by Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris, POLITICO: "If House Democrats have any hope of saving their flimsy majority in 2022, or even just limiting GOP gains, it will be thanks to candidates like Salas. He is part of a group aiming to win roughly a dozen Republican-held House seats that Joe Biden carried in 2020 — perhaps the only GOP districts that are truly vulnerable this fall." PRIMARY SOURCES — "Idaho GOP riven by primary civil war," by Zach Montellaro and Ximena Bustillo, POLITICO: "It's not just Gov. Brad Little, whose reelection campaign became national news when Donald Trump endorsed a primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin. The state attorney general is staring down a challenge from a former rabble-rousing member of Congress. The senior of Idaho's two GOP House members is facing a primary that has drawn millions in spending. And contentious open races for lieutenant governor and the secretary of state — Idaho's chief election official — echo some of the national divisions within the party." GETTING IN — "U.S. Rep. Kai Kahele announces bid for governor," by Dan Nakaso, Star Advertiser: "Kahele in his announcement emphasized his roots as a Hawaiian and his military service, and deplored donations from outside Hawaii and candidates who could be 'owned and controlled by big money.'" THE KEYSTONE STATE — "Trump boosts Pa. Senate candidate Mehmet Oz — and declares rival David McCormick 'not MAGA,'" by Jonathan Tamari and Sean Collins Walsh, The Philadelphia Inquirer: "Former President Donald Trump aimed to flex his muscles as a GOP kingmaker here Friday night, praising Senate candidate Mehmet Oz while hammering his chief primary rival, David McCormick, as a weak Republican who would fit in with Trump's perceived nemeses." — "Oz's ties to Turkey attacked in Pennsylvania's Senate race," by Marc Levy, Associated Press: "Mehmet Oz's rivals in Pennsylvania's competitive Republican primary for U.S. Senate are escalating their attacks on the celebrity heart surgeon's connections to his parents' native country of Turkey, raising it as a possible national security issue. Oz, best known as TV's Dr. Oz, has rejected any suggestions he is a threat to national security and accused an opponent, ex-hedge fund CEO David McCormick, of making 'bigoted attacks.' If elected, Oz would be the nation's first Muslim senator, although Oz has not campaigned on that milestone." THE BUCKEYE STATE — "Biden heads for JD Vance's home turf as Democrat sits out event," by Josh Wingrove and Jenny Leonard, Bloomberg: "President Joe Biden demanded Congress pass legislation to make the U.S. more competitive with China during a speech in Ohio that wasn't attended by the Democratic nominee for the state's pivotal open Senate seat." — "J.R. Majewski, an Ohio GOP congressional candidate, was a January 6 participant and has repeatedly shared pro-QAnon material," by Andrew Kaczynski and Em Steck, CNN: "J.R. Majewski, the Air Force veteran who won the GOP primary for Ohio's new 9th Congressional District, was a January 6 rally participant and has repeatedly shared pro-QAnon material -- including a video showing him painting his lawn to say Trump 2020 with 'Q' replacing the zeros. Majewski emerged victorious in Tuesday's crowded Republican primary and will face off against long-serving Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in the newly drawn district this November." THE EMPIRE STATE — "Abortion battle, new lieutenant boost Hochul's election bid after rough stretch," by Anna Gronewold, POLITICO New York: "Gov. Kathy Hochul was expecting to spend the last month taking a victory lap after completing her first budget deal and delivering billions of dollars for projects across New York. Instead, the Democratic governor had her worst month in office since she succeeded scandal-scarred Andrew Cuomo last August." BALLOT BATTLE — "A South Philly GOP ward leader has been ousted over 'ballot harvesting' concerns," by Jeremy Roebuck, Chris Brennan, and Jonathan Lai, The Philadelphia Inquirer: "GOP ward leaders voted to oust one of their own Saturday, hours after an Inquirer story highlighted his role in diverting dozens of mail ballots for Republican voters in South Philadelphia to a P.O. box under his control, raising concerns of a potential 'ballot harvesting' scheme." —"Marjorie Taylor Greene will remain on the ballot," by Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein and Shannon McCaffrey, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: "U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene will remain on the ballot for reelection, Georgia's secretary of state said Friday after a judge ruled that challengers who had tried to disqualify her because of her support for the unsuccessful insurrection at the U.S. Capitol."     THE CASH DASH — "Peter Thiel plans to wind down his involvement in 2022 after Vance's victory in Ohio," by Gabby Orr and Michael Warren, CNN: "Billionaire tech mogul Peter Thiel won big when his longtime friend J.D. Vance succeeded in Tuesday's Ohio Senate GOP primary, surging to victory in the final days of the race after a last-minute endorsement from former President Donald Trump and a seven-figure boost from Thiel. But as the 2022 midterm cycle heats up, Thiel is winding down." — "Democratic megadonor Soros puts $1 million into Abrams' campaign," by James Salzer, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: "Days after Stacey Abrams qualified to run for governor in March, a super PAC funded by billionaire megadonor George Soros put $1 million into her campaign, according to campaign finance reports. Soros, a common target of criticism from Republicans for his vast spending on Democratic causes over the years, donated the money through the Democracy PAC II to One Georgia." — "'Election being bought': Budd's outside support consolidates GOP Senate candidate criticism," by Will Wright, Gordon Rago and Danielle Battaglia, The News & Observer: "With less than two weeks of campaigning to go and Rep. Ted Budd leading the field, Republican candidates for U.S. Senate have converged in condemning spending by a political action committee that's working to get Budd the nomination." — "Big PAC spending for Foushee in Democratic primary for US House seat," by Dawn Baumgartner Vaughan and Will Doran, The News & Observer: "Led by pro-Israel lobbyists and a 30-year-old Bitcoin billionaire, outside groups have been spending more money than the candidates themselves in a hotly contested Triangle primary election, which will likely determine who next represents Durham and Chapel Hill in Congress."   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     STAFFING UP — Max Levy is now deputy digital director for fundraising at Stacey Abrams' Georgia gubernatorial campaign. He most recently was manager for partnerships and special projects at the EPA. — Alex Witt is campaign manager for Trudy Busch Valentine's Missouri Senate campaign. She most recently was senior director of strategic partnerships at the Center for American Progress.   A message from PREMION: For winning campaigns, every CTV impression counts With the explosive growth in streaming TV, more and more voters are cutting the cord and Connected TV (CTV) is an essential media channel for engaging them. What are best practices when it comes to buying CTV? When should you be concerned about ad fraud and how can you best mitigate the risk? What should you do to ensure you have access to the CTV inventory you need this cycle? What does a smart CTV ad plan look like in 2022? A new report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion helps answer these questions and more. The report is a must-read for political marketers who need to navigate the increasingly fragmented and complex streaming TV marketplace to effectively plan and buy CTV advertising. Download the complimentary report, Streaming TV and the Political Market: Navigating CTV Advertising in the 2022 Campaign Cycle here.   Presidential Big Board — "Ohio was a test case for 2024. The GOP establishment looks screwed." by David Siders, POLITICO: "The conventional view of J.D. Vance's victory in Ohio's Senate primary this week was that it demonstrated the power of Donald Trump's endorsement. But the election results also delivered something else: an outline of the 2024 GOP primary's establishment lane." — "Judge spares Clinton camp in Sussmann ruling," by Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney, POLITICO: "A federal judge has turned down a request from Special Counsel John Durham for a ruling that a lawyer facing trial on a false statement charge was part of a wide-ranging 'joint venture' involving Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, Democratic operatives, private investigation firm Fusion GPS and various technology researchers." CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY — "Even Trump Is 'Completely Weirded Out By' Madison Cawthorn's Antics" — Rolling Stone   DON'T MISS DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED:  Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.       Follow us on Twitter Steven Shepard @politico_steve Stephanie Murray @stephanie_murr Zach Montellaro @zachmontellaro Ally Mutnick @allymutnick   Follow us

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