Ohio’s Senate primary tests the Trump bump

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May 02, 2022 View in browser   By Natalie Allison Presented by VISA Inc. J.D. Vance, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Ohio, speaks at a campaign rally in Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images BUCKEYE BOOST VS. BOOMERANG — It's Primary Election Day Eve, perhaps a holiday observed only by POLITICO reporters and readers, in Ohio. In roughly 24 hours, the messiest, most expensive primary we've seen this midterm cycle — the one most likely to result in a debate-stage fist fight — will be close to settled. A field as splintered as Ohio's would force a runoff election in other states, including the upcoming primaries in North Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. But not in the Buckeye State, where, once polls close and the ballots are tallied, there will be a Republican nominee for Senate, even though the leading candidates are polling in the 20s. (A last-minute write-in campaign for "J.D. Mandel" could slow this process down.) As you've surely been told, the outcome will offer a degree of insight into the power of Donald Trump's endorsement — particularly whether it has decisive sway over voters in the final days of a race that has inundated Ohio residents with $70 million in GOP advertisements. (The spending spree among Pennsylvania's Republican Senate candidates is far lower, just shy of $50 million, with two weeks to go.) Trump took a risk in endorsing J.D. Vance in mid-April, despite Vance having never led the crowded field of candidates vying for the former president's support. Now, Vance has been first in at least five publicly released polls that were conducted after the Trump endorsement. Real Clear Politicsnotes that his lead averaged to 3.5 points in two surveys that were in the field the last several days. But right behind him is Matt Dolan, who is testing whether it's possible to win a Republican primary without hitching yourself to Trump. The state senator lingered at the very back of the pack at the start of the race. A new poll out today by the Trafalgar Group, which specializes in GOP races, put Dolan in second place behind Vance. Those results are similar to a survey released last weekshowing Dolan in first place, though Dolan's opponents privately dismissed those results, noting that Blueprint Polling is a Democratic firm. Trump's big entrance into the Ohio Senate primary seems to have boosted two candidates, then: Vance, the candidate he endorsed – and Dolan, the candidate who has gone out of his way to distance himself from Trump. Dolan has unapologetically denounced Trump's claims that the 2020 election was stolen, and he suggested that Trump's "failure of leadership" led to the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. Trump also attacked Dolan just after he announced his Senate bid in September — lambasting him for the name change of Major League Baseball's Cleveland Indians to the Cleveland Guardians, a franchise his family owns. Dolan has also stayed out of the monthslong fight among Vance, state treasurer Josh Mandel, businessman Mike Gibbons and former Ohio GOP chair Jane Timken to determine who is the truest MAGA candidate. Instead, his TV ads — $9 million worth — focus on his own record and platform, touching on issues like funding police, closing the southern border and fighting to keep open Toledo's Line 5 pipeline. All the while, Dolan's campaign has been quick to push back on labels of being anti-Trump or a Never Trumper, saying Dolan voted twice for Trump and has committed to do so again if Trump is the party's 2024 nominee. He has said throughout the campaign he agreed with Trump's policies. Dolan's surge at the end of the campaign comes as Gibbons and Timken seem to have lost their appeal to some Republican voters, several polls show, and as undecideds are forced to pick a candidate before Election Day. Even before the Trump endorsement, Gibbons' slip coincided with lackluster debate performances (includinghaving to explain why he said womenwere never oppressed), while Timken's advertising budget appeared to run out in recent weeks. A Mandel win is certainly not out of the question. But neither is a win by Vance, the candidate Trump endorsed late in the game, as he was trailing in polls — or a win by Dolan, the candidate who said he didn't need Trump's support at all. And it's the Dolan-mentum that has come as the biggest shock to political observers both in the state and in D.C., who, for months, saw his bid as little more than a wealthy man's vanity project while he polled in the single digits. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at nallison@politico.com, or on Twitter at @natalie_allison.   A message from VISA Inc.: Digital Payments are a lifeline to small businesses. Visa is taking action now to help small businesses by making it less costly to accept digital payments. Visa extends additional support to small businesses | Visa |   What'd I Miss? — Aid groups: Biden's $33B for Ukraine skimps on humanitarian needs: Leading aid groups want Congress to ramp up funding for food and other global humanitarian needs exacerbated by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, saying not enough of President Joe Biden's new $33 billion request is devoted to such concerns . The aid groups are drafting a letter laying out their worries to senior U.S. lawmakers who oversee appropriations. 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