The majority, it's a mirage

A play-by-play preview of the day's congressional news

May 12, 2022 View in browser   By Katherine Tully-McManus With help from Nicholas Wu UKRAINE AID TIMELINE — What even is a timeline when the Senate runs its own clock? The $40 billion Ukraine aid package is on deck in the Senate, but Republicans (as predicted) want to trade time dedicated to votes on their amendments in exchange for swift debate on the measure. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), a connoisseur of the amendment-or-else strategy, says he wants a vote on an amendment that would require a special inspector general to monitor and evaluate the spending of the cash for Ukraine. Otherwise, he'll block quick passage. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) put the timeline for passing the emergency aid package at "very soon" on Wednesday. President Joe Biden has been repeatedly warning that previous U.S. assistance to Ukraine could run dry next week. Top appropriators Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) are both eyeing passage today. RELATED: Congress excludes protections for Afghan evacuees in Ukraine bill, from Caroline Simon at CQ Roll Call AGUILAR, ERNST HEADLINE CONGRESSIONAL DINNER — House Democratic Caucus Vice Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) drew a steady stream of laughs — and a few groans — last night in front of a decidedly tough crowd: the Capitol Hill press corps. "It's hard to be Latino in Congress sometimes. They're always asking me if I'm going to run for Senate in Arizona. They want to know how my brother's doing after his run for president. And they're offering their thoughts and prayers after my brain surgery," Aguilar joked. He said that President Joe Biden is responsible for the low unemployment numbers, joking that: "Even the Republicans retiring are going to get jobs in a rising economy. You're welcome Tom Reed." He played the political expectations game perfectly ahead of his speech, setting the bar low. House colleagues candidly told attendees that Aguilar was still writing jokes during votes yesterday afternoon, leaving many surprised at the sharp laugh lines. (Smattered with cringey mentions.) He was a tough act to follow, but Sen. Joni Ernt (R-Iowa), the night's other headliner, had no other choice. "It's great to be with you at the 76th annual Washington Press Club congressional dinner, and as a Republican, I am used to attending these super spreader events," she said. (Congress team deputy editor Tyler Weyant had a first person account of the high tech testing regime in Nightly.) She took jabs at Democrats: "It's too bad Speaker Pelosi did have to leave early. I was looking for some insider stock trading tips." And taunted the press for not covering Hunter Biden's laptop or the southern border enough. She also turned the jokes on herself, with an extended joke about her hair being real, not a wig. Ernst earned bonus points for her famous use of props (a toy pig) and visual aides, as she reviewed colleagues' funny floor charts.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Thursday, May 12, where the House is workin' on its fitness (more on that below.) THE MAJORITY MIRAGE— Democrats are surviving, but not exactly thriving, in the longest 50-50 Senate in history. This week illuminated, once again, how fragile and fleeting Democratic "control" is with such tiny margins. "It's hard, we have the responsibility of being in the majority, without being able to count on all of the votes in our column. And that's tough," Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told Burgess. "The good news is even a 50-50 Senate gives the Democrats control over the votes that come up, it means we can move judges and other nominees." With just 50 votes needed to confirm nominees, the Democrats have had success installing President Joe Biden's picks, including Lisa Cook, the first Black woman on the Federal Reserve Board. But legislating is harder. The 50-50 split puts a constant spotlight on internal Democratic Caucus disagreements that wouldn't be news if Schumer had even one vote to spare. Burgess looks at Schumer's tactics to manage the harsh reality for Senate Democrats. RELATED: As Senate became more polarized, messaging votes lost their power, from Paul Kane at The Washington Post SENATE GOP'S TV CASH— They're going big (and early.) Natalie Alison reports that the The National Republican Senatorial Committee is reserving $53 million in ads in top battleground states between this Friday and the November election. That's way more than the NRSC's moves at this point in the 2020 cycle, which was $33 million. It also tops the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's $33 million initial ad buy for the year. Blanketing the battlegrounds: The investment is focused on the states that are expected to determine Senate control in the new Congress: $3 million in Nevada, $6.5 million in North Carolina, $8 million in Arizona, $8 million in Pennsylvania, $9 million in New Hampshire, $9 million in Wisconsin and $9.5 million in Georgia, according to a plan shared with POLITICO. COMMITTEE SHUFFLE — A few committee moves have been announced this week, here's a little roundup: Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) announced that the House Democratic Steering & Policy Committee has recommended that Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) serve on the Agriculture Committee and Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas) join Armed Services. Both still need to get approval from the full Democratic Caucus. On the Republican side , freshman Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.) was selected to fill recently convicted and resigned Rep. Jeff Fortenberry's (R-Neb.) vacant seat on the Appropriations Committee. Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas), the top Republican on Ways and Means, said Wednesday that he anticipates Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) would will replace Rep. Tom Reed (R-N.Y.), who resigned Tuesday, as the ranking member of the panel's subcommittee on social security. MAY DAYS — It's May, which means it's Asian Pacific American Heritage Month. Nicholas caught up with Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus chair Rep. Judy Chu (D-Calif.), who said the caucus had a whole slate of events planned. Among the events: Wednesday evening special order remembrances of the late Rep. Norm Mineta (D-Calif.), a commemoration of lives lost to anti-AAPI hate on May 18, and the unveiling of a new portrait of the late Rep. Patsy Mink (D-Hawaii), the first woman of color elected to Congress (though the official reveal will come in June, timed to the 50th anniversary of Title IX, which Mink co-authored). VIEW FROM THE GALLERY House Democrats packed the corridor leading from the House to the Senate on Wednesday as the Senate prepared to take a vote on abortion protections and then lined the perimeter of the chamber as the debate on the legislation started coming to a close. Even more members watched from the balcony. They drew a Capitol Police response (and handshakes from Schumer once debate wrapped up). Nicholas and Anthony were in the hallway and the chamber and had an up-close view. HUDDLE HOTDISH FIRST IN HUDDLE: NOT JUST POLITICAL SPIN— All House staff will be provided with a free Peloton App Membership subscription, according to an e-Dear Colleague from the House Center for Well-Being set to go out this morning. Starting on May 18, staff can use the Peloton app at no monthly cost, whether you're a new or existing member. All House staff, including district teams and Capitol Police are eligible. There's no need to spring for the pricey spin bike, there are thousands of on-demand classes that users can do at home or the gym. Staffer sweat sesh, here we come. QUICK LINKS  Report Catalogs Abuse of Native American Children at Former Government Schools, from Mark Walker at The New York Times Gender pay gap is just a 'left-wing narrative,' Ariz. Senate candidate said, from Vaughn Hillyard at NBC News Amazon Warehouse Collapse Reveals 'Wholly Inadequate Safety Culture,' Warren and AOC Say, from Vice News TRANSITIONS  Lacy Nelson is now communications director for Rep. Judy Chu (D-Calif.). She most recently was digital director for Katie Hobbs' Arizona gubernatorial campaign, and is a Raphael Warnock and Doug Jones alum.   DON'T MISS DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED:  Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.     TODAY IN CONGRESS The House convenes at 10 for morning hour and noon for legislative business. The Senate convenes at 10 a.m. with the first vote of the day at noon. Other votes are expected but are not yet scheduled. AROUND THE HILL 10 a.m. Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), John Rutherford (R-Fla.), Cindy Axne (D-Iowa) and other lawmakers hold a press conference on the bipartisan Police Invest to Protect Act (House Triangle). 10:45 a.m. Pelosi holds her weekly press conference (Studio A). 1:30 p.m. Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) holds a press conference on National Police Week (House Triangle). TRIVIA WEDNESDAY'S WINNER: Michael R. Gale correctly answered that Abraham Lincoln was a licensed bartender before he became president. He was the co-owner of Berry and Lincoln, a drinking establishment in New Salem, Illinois, where he lived from 1831 to 1837. TODAY'S QUESTION from Michael: Which president won the most popular votes three times? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to ktm@politico.com. GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning. Follow Katherine on Twitter @ktullymcmanus   Follow us

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