Time for another Operation Earnest Will?

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May 18, 2022 View in browser   By Ryan Heath Presented by The Open Society Foundations Check out the weekly Global Insider podcast.| Follow Ryan on Twitter. Happening Today Group of Seven finance chiefs are meeting in Germany to assess what's changed in the global economy since Russia's latest Ukraine invasion on Feb. 24. A new $15 billion Ukraine aid package is one of the possible outcomes. WHERE TO JOIN GLOBAL INSIDER TODAY: POLITICO's second annual sustainability summit — starting at 10 a.m. ET — to explore the policies, strategies and innovations that can get the U.S. to a sustainable future faster. U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, Gov. Jay Inslee (D-Wash.), Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and Rostin Behnam, chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, are among the confirmed speakers. RSVP to attend in-person or watch live. A message from The Open Society Foundations: The courage of the Ukrainian people touches all of us who value democracy. At the Open Society Foundations, we've been confronting tyranny head on for decades. Join us in supporting Ukraine and everyone fighting to determine their own destiny around the world. Because in the fight for free and open societies, we are oppression's biggest opponent. Learn more.   GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS FOOD DIPLOMACY AND MILITARY OPERATIONS Getting food exports out of Ukraine in 2022, and limiting a certain global food shortage, will take a strong coalition of farmers, logistics experts and militaries, largely because Russia's army has planted mines in millions of acres of the world's most fertile soil. Eddy Wax talked to the farmers dealing with that deadly risk. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres continues to push for a humanitarian food corridor deal with Russia and Turkey to open Ukrainian food exports to world markets. Turkey, a major Black Sea power, is willing to participate, including by removing sea mines and managing shipping traffic, reported William Mauldin. OPERATION EARNEST WILL — PROOF A HUMANITARIAN FOOD CORRIDOR IS POSSIBLE: Ensuring a humanitarian food corridor from Russian backsliding will take a strong military commitment, but it's happened before.  It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II aimed at protecting Kuwati oil exports from Iranian attacks in the 1980s. The effort, which involved 127 convoys over 14 months in 1987 and 1988, was directed by the U.S. Navy's Seventh Fleet and supported by six other navies (Belgium, France, Italy, Netherlands, U.K. and West Germany). The point : NATO navies have shown they are able to protect trade in essential commodities when they want to. As an operational matter, it is plausible to match that effort in 2022 to reopen and protect the port of Odesa: The area to protect is a combination of Ukrainian territorial waters and an international waterway, the Black Sea. The complication: While a 2022 version of Operation Earnest Will would not involve Russian waters, it's also true that Iran was not a nuclear power in 1987, while Russia is a nuclear power. INTERVIEW — CINDY MCCAIN, FOOD SECURITY DIPLOMAT   Thanks to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. ambassador to three United Nations food and agriculture agencies — the World Food Program (emergency relief), the Food and Agriculture Organization (food systems) and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (small farmers) — is working at the heart of a geopolitical firestorm, and a new $5 billion food aid package that wouldn't exist without the war. McCain spoke to POLITICO's Meredith Lee earlier this week about how the war has changed her work: "Most of my day is spent, unfortunately, right now on the Ukrainian situation. … We're trying to encourage countries in a hard-line way to not restrict exports, to continue to export grain and other items needed for cooking, etc., and that it does nobody any good in the world if everyone begins to hoard goods." U.S. farmers are key : "We're working with U.S. farmers right now to figure out how we can grow more with less, how we can do it quickly, how we can make this sustainable. … We're always innovating. We're always using science and technology. We need to do more of it, though." Putin's hearing problem: "The Russians seem to think that we don't need a humanitarian corridor and they continue to bomb those who are trying to get through with supplies, with medical equipment, etc. … I don't think Putin is listening to us." The home front: "The American people are a little burned out right now with Afghanistan and coming out of Iraq and all those things. … I view part of my role in talking to the American people about what is actually going on and why we need to do this." After the war, the rebuild: "Once the smoke clears from this (war), it's about seeds, it's about tools, it's about land management again, because most of the land is going to be really torn up as a result of this." McCain's new BFFs in Rome: "One (country) that stepped up and really helped us out a few weeks ago was the Bahamas. They are a very tiny country, but they were very helpful in FAO meetings and they were very helpful in encouraging the rest of us, which to me was great because I sometimes feel like I'm the Lone Ranger, but I'm not." CHILD SURVIVAL EMERGENCY: UNICEF has issued a special alert on what it terms a "child survival emergency" based on cases of "severe wasting," which are dramatically increasing around the world due to conflict and climate change, while at the same time the cost of ready-to-use therapeutic food is set to sharply increase, putting the lives of more children at risk. South Asia remains the 'epicenter' of severe wasting, where roughly one in 22 children is severely wasted, three times as high as sub-Saharan Africa.   INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED:  Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.     UKRAINE FRONTS BY THE NUMBERS: Sweden on Tuesday signed a formal request to join NATO and the Finnish Parliament voted 188 to 8 in favor of joining NATO. Swiss inch closer to NATO: The Swiss Defense Ministry is drawing up a report on security options that include joint military exercises with NATO countries, Paelvi Pulli, head of security policy at the ministry, told Reuters. Switzerland is so determinedly neutral it stayed out of both World Wars and only joined the United Nations in 2002. REALITY CHECKS: Since Feb. 24  — Russia has lost more soldiers than Ukraine — Russia has doubled the amount of Ukrainian territory it controls, writes Suriya Jayanti. — Ukraine's GDP has been halved, while Russia's has been cut by only 7 percent. AFGHANISTAN — BIDEN'S BROKEN VISA PROMISE: The State Department estimates as many as 160,000 Afghan allies along with their immediate family members are eligible to come to the U.S. through a Special Immigrant Visa . But the department can't guarantee that most of them will be able to leave Afghanistan by the time the president finishes his term in January 2025. In fact, at the current pace, many Afghans who were promised a visa in exchange for helping the U.S. military effort would likely still be waiting at the end of a potential second Biden term, in 2029. More from Alex Thompson and Nahal Toosi. CHINA CORNER  UYGHUR COUNTY HAS WORLD'S HIGHEST IMPRISONMENT RATE: "Nearly one in 25 people in a county of the Uyghur heartland of China has been sentenced to prison on terrorism-related charges, in what is the highest known imprisonment rate in the world, an Associated Press review of leaked data shows." The average prison term for the cohort is nine years. MONETARY POLICY CHIEF UNDER INVESTIGATION: Sun Guofeng , director general for monetary policy at China's central bank, is under investigation for alleged serious violations of Party disciplines and laws. "Downfall of a heavyweight cadre," reports Caixin. CHINA'S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE KEEPS RISING: China now admits an unemployment rate of 6.1 percent . Given its history of optimistic statistics, and the difficulties of calculating anything across a population of 1.4 billion (remember the massive miscalculations of the 2020 U.S. census?), it's possible the real unemployment rate is higher. STUDENT PROTEST IN BEIJING: Students at Peking University, one of China's most elite colleges, have demonstrated against strict Covid lockdown measures. Any form of protest among Peking University students is dangerous — they're still afraid to talk about the Tiananmen Square massacre (and sometimes unaware of it) 33 years later. JUSTICE DEPARTMENT SUES STEVE WYNN — FOR NOT REGISTERING AS AN AGENT OF CHINA: Billionaire Las Vegas mogul Steve Wynn has been sued to compel him to register as an agent for China, after he had refused to do so voluntarily, the U.S. Justice Department said. The department's complaint states that Wynn lobbied former President Donald Trump over Chinese requests to extradite a Chinese executive from the U.S. in 2017.   A message from The Open Society Foundations:   EUROPE CORNER EU — HALF-TIME SCORECARD FOR TEAM VON DER LEYEN: POLITICO rates the European Union's Brussels-based Commissioners. Nothing has gone to plan for the EU executive that took office in late 2019, but pandemic and war crises have shaped a tighter and stronger EU in many respects. THE 28 PEOPLE TO KNOW IN EUROPEAN TECH: A new list from POLITICO. EU OFFERS TAIWAN UPGRADED TRADE DIALOGUE: EU will "enhance cooperation and engagement with Taiwan" in a newly upgraded level of trade dialogue which will take place on June 2, EU trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis told the European Parliament. SPAIN — UNLIMITED PAID PERIOD PAIN LEAVE PROPOSAL: The Spanish government is proposing to grant unlimited leave from work for severe period pain, paid by the country's social security system rather than the employer, after Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's Cabinet approved a legislative package on reproductive rights that would also allow abortion from the age of 16 without parental or guardian consent. U.K. — CONSERVATIVE MP ARRESTED FOR ALLEGED RAPE AND SEX ASSAULT: The Scotland Yard police force said that an unnamed MP in his 50s has been arrested on suspicion of indecent assault, sexual assault, rape, abuse of position of trust and misconduct in public office. The alleged offenses took place between 2002 and 2009. NEW PODCAST EPISODE — TRADEWINDS Listen to Global Insider podcast The era of free-wheeling globalization is over: That makes life tough for this week's guests: Anne-Marie Trevelyan, the British Trade Secretary charged with delivering her country's "Global Britain" policy, and Singapore's Trade Minister Gan Kim Yong, who is coping with the rise of his massive neighbor, China. Together, these officials from two of the world's leading export hubs have been battered first by Covid, and now Russia's invasion of Ukraine, upending supply chains. Both say they're still deeply committed to the World Trade Organization, despite its failure to conclude new global trade deals or speed up distribution of Covid vaccines. NO PODCAST NEXT WEEK: The podcast will take a break from next week. But don't worry — we'll be serving you with a daily podcast from the World Economic Forum in Davos instead. You can sign up for that podcast feed here, and I'll provide daily links in Global Insider. ELECTION CORNER  FRANCE — ELISABETH BORNE IS NEW PRIME MINISTER: Borne is France'sfirst liberal female prime minister and will be charged with steering President Emmanuel Macron's pension reform efforts. LEBANON — HEZBOLLAH PARLIAMENT MAJORITY WIPED OUT: Iran-backed Hezbollah and its allies have lost their majority in Lebanon's parliament, falling from 71 to 62 seats out of 128. SOMALIA — MOHAMUD ELECTED PRESIDENT AS U.S. TROOPS DEPLOYED: Somalia's parliament has elected Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as president (he served in the role from 2012 to 2017), defeating outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmaajo, who last year suspended the powers of the prime minister amid an ongoing tussle for power. In a statement, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Biden administration encourages "all of Somalia's leaders to prioritize strengthening democratic governance and institutions; developing security forces to prevent and counter terrorism and assume full security responsibility from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia." President Biden has approved a Pentagon request to redeploy several hundred American troops in Somalia to support the fight against militant group al-Shabab. UNITED STATES — PRIMARY RESULTS: Voters in another five states selected candidates for November mid-term federal elections and state races. The most consequential votes were in Pennsylvania (Statewide results |Congressional district results) and North Carolina (Statewide results | Congressional district results).   DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.     GLOBETROTTERS CEO SECRETS: My colleagues at Protocol have been getting CEOs to talk about the parts of their job that don't get displayed. So: What don't people understand about being CEO? Will Hayes, CEO at Lucidworks: "It doesn't get easier. … I think there's a misconception that once you've reached a leadership role, you have a lot of the answers." Lisa Lewin, CEO at General Assembly: "The job not only requires minute-to-minute shifting across myriad topics, issues and stakeholders, but also being able to navigate the full range of emotional needs. … Doing that well takes a lot of emotional effort." Michael Gronager, CEO and co-founder at Chainalysis: "The job of CEO is the most collaborative role imaginable. … To really be effective, you have to fill your day with conversations, talking to as many people as possible." SOHO HOUSE SECRETS: The global club chain started life in a London townhouse 27 years ago. Founder Nick Jones talks about how he turned it into a global empire ( video). MEET JARED BIRCHALL: The soft-spoken church-attending ex-Morgan Stanley banker who is Elon Musk's loyal right-hand. THE NEXT, NEXT SILICON VALLEY: Dozens of cities have tried to carve out roles as the smaller sibling or cousin to California's Silicon Valley. Miami is the latest city with buzz, but can its tech hub dreams survive the crypto bust? A message from The Open Society Foundations: The courage of the Ukrainian people touches all of us who value democracy. At the Open Society Foundations, we've been confronting tyranny head on for decades by working to build vibrant and inclusive democracies across the globe. In the eyes of tyrants, everyday citizens are the enemy. Our decency is our strength. Our state of mind is the enemy of their sad, sorry state. Join us as an enemy of tyranny by supporting Ukraine and everyone fighting to determine their own destiny around the world. Learn more.   BRAIN FOOD The international roots of the Buffalo terror attack: White supremacists are engaged in a violent global discussion, writes Daniel Byman. Meta's long, long metaverse vision: Mark Zuckerberg's right-hand Nick Clegg published a nearly 8,000-word essay trying to sell his version for the metaverse to a non-expert policy audience. Thanks to editor John Yearwood, Nahal Toosi, David Herszenhorn and producer Hannah Farrow. SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: D.C. Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | Paris Playbook| EU Confidential | D.C. Influence | EU Influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | China Direct | Berlin Bulletin | Living Cities   Follow us on Twitter Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan   Follow us

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