Will abortion outrage = midterm wins for Dems?

How race and identity are shaping politics, policy and power.

May 10, 2022 View in browser   By Brakkton Booker With help from Ella Creamer, Rishika Dugyala and Teresa Wiltz  A crowd in front of the Supreme Court, May 2. | Anna Johnson/AP Photo What up, Recast family! It's another primary day, this time with contests in Nebraska and West Virginia. White House adviser Susan Rice tests positive for Covid. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden touts affordable high speed internet access and Elon Musk says he would reverse the Twitter ban on Donald Trump.  First, though, we explore the early signs of how the Supreme Court's expected decision to strike down Roe v. Wade is affecting the midterm elections.  Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is fully aware that a vote aiming to craft federal abortion protections into law will fail. As my colleague Katherine Tully-McManus points out in the Huddle newsletter , the legislation being considered on Wednesday is nearly identical to one that was defeated in February. But its passage is not really the point here. Democrats are seeking to harness the furor from their base over the Supreme Court's likely decision to overturn Roe v. Wade – and turn that outrage into electoral success this fall. They were perhaps aided in that effort by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.  He signaled a willingness to consider a national ban – which many abortion opponents are advocating – should Republicans reclaim control of the Senate. McConnell speaking to reporters. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo "If the leaked opinion became the final opinion, legislative bodies – not only at the state level, but at the federal level – certainly could legislate in that area," the Republican told USA Today. "So yeah, it's possible." On a Monday evening call hosted by Our Revolution, the progressive grassroots group founded by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) nodded at this possibility. Tlaib, a member of the left-leaning "Squad," told supporters Democrats must elect more lawmakers who support abortion rights to Congress in the midterms. "Not only is the access to safe and legal abortion under attack, but also that the very fabric of our right to reproductive freedom and privacy could be pulled from under us," she said. "This issue will really motivate folks to get involved." One of the first abortion battlegrounds: a Democratic runoff in Texas later this month. Progressive Jessica Cisneros has repeatedly hammered her opponent, incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar for being the only House Democrat to vote against the Women's Health Protection Act, which would codify Roe. Following the report of the court's draft opinion, Cuellar issued a statement explaining his stance on abortion. "As a lifelong Catholic, I have always been pro-life," he tweeted. "I do not support abortion, however we cannot have an outright ban. There must be exceptions in the case of rape, incest and danger to the life of the mother." Henry Cuellar on May 4. | Eric Gay/AP Photo Democrats are also bullish about the prospects of the abortion issue helping candidates in down-ballot races, too. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which focuses on electing Democrats to statehouses across the country, said it broke fundraising records notching more than $650,000 in a 48-hour period after POLITICO broke the story on the court's draft opinion. The fallout from the Supreme Court news is already affecting local elections, says Heather Williams, the DLCC's executive director. As an example, she points to what she calls the "first legislative flip of 2022": Last week's upset in a special election to a Michigan state House seat. Democrat Carol Glanville defeated the heavily favored Republican Robert "RJ" Regan, who came under fire for suggesting rape victims "lie back and enjoy it." Up until now, Democrats were bracing for the likely loss of one or both chambers in Congress. But now the Supreme Court's expected overturning of Roe is scrambling midterm prospects – providing a much-needed jolt for a party weary of talking about inflation, high gas prices and a lingering pandemic. President Joe Biden speaking at the White House on March 4. The potential overturning of Roe is likely to give the Democrats a much-needed jolt. | Patrick Semansky/AP Photo Still, Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha – a nominee for The Recast Power List – worries the party is putting too much focus on an issue that's unlikely to flip many voters. "It is a very huge issue for the base of the party," says Rocha, a former adviser to the Sanders presidential campaign. "But it doesn't have the same sway as we think it does." That's because when it comes to abortion rights, he says, voters are already "Team Red" or "Team Blue." And there's the risk Democrats may be distracted from talking about what they will do for the country if they retain control of Congress. Polls taken after POLITICO published Justice Samuel Alito's draft opinion on Dobbs v. Jackson's Women's Health Organization – the current case before the court addressing abortion – show voters overwhelmingly support keeping the 1973 precedent guaranteeing abortion rights in place. The Supreme Court building on May 4. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo In a POLITICO/ Morning Consult poll taken last week, more than half of respondents said Roe shouldn't be overturned, compared with 28 percent who said it should, while 22 percent were undecided. Seeing a Democratic base fired up over Roe is a wake-up call for Republicans heading into the midterms, says Deana Bass Williams, a GOP strategist. "Republicans were getting comfortable with, 'Oh, it's gonna be a red wave, I don't have to go to the polls.' Now they realize that they can't become complacent," says Williams, who previously worked at the Republican National Committee. We'll continue watching to see where this debate goes – and how it will affect the remainder of the midterm cycle. All the best, The Recast Team   Power dynamics are changing. With The Recast, you'll get a twice-weekly breakdown of how race and identity are the DNA of American politics and policy. Was this forwarded to you by a friend? Subscribe to the newsletter here.   THE NUMBERS GAME In a first look at the upcoming POLITICO/ Morning Consult poll, voters were asked about their attitudes toward the midterm election, specifically, when it comes to casting a vote for candidates that agree with them on abortion. Overall, the responses were about even. Some 39 percent say it was important for the candidate to agree with them on abortion access, even if they disagreed on other issues. Conversely, 41 percent say it's important to vote for a candidate that agrees with their stance on most issues, even if they disagree with them on abortion access. Twenty percent of respondents had no opinion on the matter. This was compared with 40 percent of white respondents and 35 percent of Black voters. The full survey will be released Wednesday, 6 a.m. EDT.   THE SNEAK PREVIEW Former Housing and Urban Development secretary in the Trump administration and retired pediatric neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson has a new book, "Created Equal: The Painful Past, Confusing Present, and Hopeful Future of Race in America." He'll be the subject of The Sitdown in The Recast this Friday. Ben Carson in 2020. | Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo Here's a preview of our chat, where he weighs in on the court's anticipated overturning of Roe. This excerpt has been edited for length and clarity. THE RECAST: Obviously, this is going to have momentous impacts on society and on politics. What are your thoughts on how this is going to impact politics? CARSON: Well, first of all, I think we should all be horrified that it happened – that we would be leaking such sensitive documents from an esteemed system like the Supreme Court. Why would someone do something like that? Obviously, they feel that they're righteous, and they are marching in a righteous cause. And anything they do is justified because of their righteousness. Basically, the same mentality that the jihadists have. So we need to recognize that that is a severe problem, because now it's going to cause significant distrust in one of the major branches of our government. Having said that, it seems to me like our system was designed so that the people would be in charge. If we're making life and death decisions by people who have lifetime appointments, and really don't have to answer to the people, it would seem to me like the appropriate place would be at the level where the people have an input and their representatives have an input. So I actually would be glad to see that happen. I'm not quite sure why anybody would be disappointed with that, if they're truly interested in abiding by the will of people.   THE TIME CAPSULE If Roe v. Wade is reversed, Black and Hispanic people will be disproportionately impacted. They seek abortions at higher rates than white people and are less likely to be able to afford to travel for an abortion if the procedure is outlawed in their state, meaning already disparate health outcomes are likely to solidify, reports POLITICO magazine intern Ella Creamer. Those disparities are rooted in the tangled history of reproductive rights and race. There are "racist origins of the anti-abortion movement in the United States, which date back to the ideologies of slavery," law professor Michele Goodwin wrote in a 2020 essay. While abortion was legal until after the civil war, enslaved women were prohibited from terminating pregnancies by slaveowners, who sought to maximize the number of children produced by women under their control – and who often fathered those children themselves. Enslaved women resorted to inducing abortions in secret using emmenagogic herbs. They often chose abortion as a form of resistance, knowing how much value a child brought to a slavemaster. If a slaveholder discovered an enslaved woman chewing cotton roots to prevent or terminate a pregnancy, he would beat her. George Washington paid enslaved midwives to provide reproductive health services. | GPA Photo Archive and Metropolitan Museum of Art/Flickr Meanwhile, many enslaved women were highly valued — even paid — for their knowledge of reproductive health, inasmuch as slave owners could use them to drive profits. Black "granny midwives," who were originally transported on slave ships and who carried African folk knowledge of contraception and abortion, provided birthing services for plantation mistresses and as well as the enslaved. After abolition, many Black midwives continued to provide a range of reproductive services, including abortion, primarily in the South. Yet, they would soon face a tide of resistance that ultimately led them to being pushed out of midwifery. A midwife wrapping her kit to go on call in Georgia, Oct. 1941. | Library of Congress Beginning in the mid-1800s, white physicians engineered a smear campaign to tarnish the midwives. They claimed midwives were ignorant and unclean — leaving space for physicians to dominate the reproductive health field. Often, the narrative invoked unsubtle racial stereotypes: "The midwife is a relic of barbarism. In civilized countries the midwife is wrong, has always been wrong," obstetrician Joseph DeLee said in a 1915 speech. These efforts culminated in the Sheppard-Towner Maternity and Infancy Protection Act of 1921, which required midwives to undergo formal training and evaluation by public health nurses (who were primarily white). The nurses also instructed midwives to fill in birth records, which tacitly imposed a literacy requirement – and pushed many older Black midwives out of work. The impacts are still felt today: Just 7 percent of midwives are Black (pre-Civil War, a reported half were Black). Of physicians — many of whom have a role in administering abortions — just 5 percent are Black.   ICYMI @ POLITICO Barnette Surging – She's the candidate no one had on their radar in the hotly contested Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary. But Kathy Barnette is surging in polls as POLITICO's Holly Otterbein explains, without Trump's endorsement and despite being outspent 358-to-1 on TV. Barnette speaking during a forum for Republican Pennsylvania U.S. Senate candidates, Feb. 21. | Matt Rourke/AP Photo Democrat's Texas Star – Lina Hidalgo is steadily building a statewide profile in Texas' most populous county. Democrats have high hopes for the Harris County judge. But first she must win reelection later this year – something that has become a challenge thanks to a pair of lingering controversies. POLITICO's Marissa Martinez explains. N.Y. Governor's Tough Stretch – New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is hoping to put a bruising few weeks behind her. As the Democrat seeks a full four-year term after succeeding former governor Andrew Cuomo, she's had to navigate her own lieutenant governor's resignation following federal bribery charges, wading through state and congressional redistricting fights and more. POLITICO's Anna Gronewold breaks it all down.   THE RECAST RECOMMENDS Futuro Media, helmed by veteran journalist Maria Hinojosa, won a Pulitzer Prize this week, along with PRX, for the podcast, "Suave," which chronicles the life of a man serving a life sentence for crimes he committed as a teen. Hinojosa at a Women's Media Center awards ceremony in 2017. | Cindy Ord/Getty Images for Women's Media Center Don Lee explores a spectrum of Asian American identity in his latest story collection, "Partition." Mexican writer Fernanda Melchor brings us her new novel "Paradais" today. Longlisted for the International Booker Prize, it looks at hyperviolence in certain segments of Mexican society. Jason Mamoa narrates an inspiring documentary on five-time Olympic medalist Duke Kahanamoku. "Sex Education" star Ncuti Gatwa has been named the new Doctor Who, becoming the first Black actor to fill the role. Kendrick Lamar has a new single, "The Heart Part 5," and his video is a creepy – and compelling – Deep Fake affair. Watch him morph into other Black male celebrities , from OJ Simpson to Will Smith to Nipsey Hussle. A$AP Rocky's newest video, "D.M.B.," is a full-on love letter to Rihanna. (Warning: Lots of NSFW language.) TikToks of the day: Cuteness Speak now or forever hold your peace   Follow us on Twitter Brakkton Booker @brakktonbooker Rishika Dugyala @rishikadugyala Teresa Wiltz @teresawiltz   Follow us

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