| | | | |  | | By Scott Bland | Presented by American Edge Project | | | | THE BIG QUESTION — Democrats see abortion as a big base motivator and a potential winning issue with independents. Republicans are celebrating the policy victory but aren't necessarily eager to campaign on the end of Roe v. Wade in swing seats. But the most important political factor is how heavily any of this weighs amid widespread concern about the economy. — 5 races where the Supreme Court decision could have an especially big impact, via POLITICO's Zach Montellaro — with a focus on the governors and other state positions now with full policy control over abortion. My top race to watch: Pennsylvania's campaign for governor. Abortion is legal in the perennial battleground state, but that can be changed by statute, and Republicans control the state legislature and GOP nominee Doug Mastriano is within striking distance of Democratic nominee Josh Shapiro in recent polls. It's all coming together here: a state with razor-thin margins, significant bright-line policy stakes and a campaign already honing in on the issue. Watch Pennsylvania to see how abortion is playing in the midterms more broadly. Kansas and Michigan are also worth special attention. Kansas has a ballot measure up in August that would explicitly write out a right to abortion from the state constitution, after the state Supreme Court ruled that such a right existed several years ago. Then, Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, a supporter of abortion rights, is on the ballot in the fall. And in Michigan, a ballot measure adding abortion rights to the state constitution is in the signature-gathering stage, while Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has made abortion a key plank in her reelection campaign. SIGN OF THE TIMES — "Endangered House Dem makes big TV ad buy on abortion rights ," by POLITICO's Ally Mutnick: "Democratic Rep. Susie Lee launched a TV and digital ad in Las Vegas saying her GOP challenger wants 'to make all abortion illegal — no exceptions.' The spot … will be backed by at least $500,000, according to plans shared first with POLITICO. … Lee's spot — and its quick launch — offers a window into the broader strategy some House Democrats plan to adopt in battleground districts now that Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court decision that established a national right to abortion, is officially defunct." — "Battleground Republicans squeezed hardest on abortion after Roe falls," by POLITICO's Sarah Ferris and Ally Mutnick: "House Republicans say they're mostly unfazed by the political ramifications of Friday's Supreme Court abortion ruling. Except some of their most endangered incumbents, who'd rather not say much about it at all." Send all your election tips and tidbits to: sbland@politico.com or @PoliticoScott. Days until the Colorado, Illinois, Mississippi runoff, New York (Senate and governor), Oklahoma and Utah primaries: 1 Days until the Maryland primaries: 22 Days until the Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington primaries: 36 Days until the general election: 134 Days until the 2022 World Cup: 146 Days until the 2024 election: 862
| | | | A message from American Edge Project: Voters Focused on Inflation – Not Breaking Up Tech
Midterm voters' top priorities for Congress are inflation (88%), national security (86%), and jobs (85%). 84 percent of voters agree "there are other, bigger problems facing the United States, we should not be focused on breaking up U.S. tech companies right now ." Read more from our poll in partnership with Ipsos. | | | Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You'll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day's biggest stories.
| | | FIRST IN SCORE — PRIMARY FIGHT — LCV Victory Fund is charging into the MD-04 Democratic primary with $550,000 in spending to support former Rep. Donna Edwards, who has been facing attack ads from AIPAC's United Democracy Project ahead of the July 19 nominating contests. Two digital ads starting Monday call Edwards a "proven Democrat," and the group is also starting mailers in the district next week, per a release. UDP has aired over $1.4 million in ads in the primary so far, according to AdImpact. TREND TO WATCH — "More than 1 million voters switch to GOP in warning for Dems ," by the Associated Press' Steve Peoples and Aaron Kessler: "More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press. The previously unreported number reflects a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country … But nowhere is the shift more pronounced — and dangerous for Democrats — than in the suburbs … The AP examined nearly 1.7 million voters who had likely switched affiliations across 42 states for which there is data over the last 12 months, according to L2, a political data firm." TUESDAY PRIMARY LOOKAHEAD — Donald Trump endorsed state Sen. Darren Bailey for Illinois governor over the weekend, days before the primary, POLITICO's Shia Kapos wrote. File this one away under the "stat-padding" category of Trump endorsements: Bailey has moved well ahead in the GOP primary polls in Illinois in recent weeks, as Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and the Democratic Governors Association "spent $34 million on TV ads proclaiming Bailey's conservatism as dangerous. It might influence independents in the general election, but for the primary, it only rallied conservative voters." — " Rep. Mary Miller's 'white life' comment is latest controversy in her short two years in Congress," by the Chicago Tribune's Rick Pearson and Jeremy Gorner: Miller called the Dobbs decision "a 'historic victory for white life.' … Later, a campaign aide said she meant to say 'right to life,' but misspoke. … Her comment Saturday quickly spread on social media to become the top trending political subject on Twitter. That prompted her campaign to complain that 'the fake news vultures are out' to get her." — President Joe Biden endorsed Democratic Rep. Danny Davis on Sunday, ahead of Tuesday's primary. Davis is facing a field that includes Justice Democrats-endorsed Kina Collins. The mystery-funded Opportunity for All Action Fund dropped another $300,000 into the race backing Davisahead of the weekend. NBC Chicago had a write-up of the Biden endorsement. AND A PRIMARY LOOKBACK — Rep. David Valadao has advanced from his top-two primary to the general election in CA-22, the AP finally called Friday evening as vote-counting continued in California. Valadao is the first Republican who voted to impeach Trump to advance from a primary this year, though it wasn't easy. The incumbent is 2.5 points ahead of third-placed Chris Mathys , another Republican, with 97 percent of the vote counted. Valadao will face Democrat Rudy Salas in November. ELSEWHERE ON THE DOCKET — "The Supreme Court has chipped away at the Voting Rights Act for 9 years. This case could be the next blow ," by POLITICO's Zach Montellaro: "The diminished Voting Rights Act has already played a key role, in its absence, in the 2022 elections. Three states that were previously covered by preclearance requirements — Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana — have all seen their maps face significant challenges in federal court over whether or not they give Black voters adequate representation. "Federal judges threw out Alabama's map in the spring, but it was reinstated for 2022 by the Supreme Court, which ruled 5-4 that it was too close to the election to draw a new map. A federal judge in Georgia wrote in another case that the state's map may violate the VRA while letting it stand for 2022, and Louisiana is currently redrawing its map under court order — though the Supreme Court could step in to halt the process, as it did in Alabama."
| | | | JOIN TOMORROW FOR WOMEN RULE TALK ON THE ECONOMY: The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down after a period of robust growth last year. How would an economic slowdown affect women's economic security across socioeconomic, racial, and geographic lines? Join POLITICO's Women Rule for a conversation on what's ahead for the U.S. economy and how it will impact women's livelihoods and economic well-being. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | — Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) released a pair of new ads focused on abortion rights after Friday's Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade. One calls Republican Tiffany Smiley "Mitch McConnell's handpicked candidate," while the other features Murray speaking straight to camera about fighting back in the wake of the court ruling. — Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Iowa) is out with an attack ad in IA-03, accusing Republican Zach Nunn of taking campaign money from unsavory donors. — Rep. Kim Schrier's (D-Wash.) new ad includes her saying, among other things, that she's been "taking on the Biden administration to suspend the gas tax" and "got more funding for local police."
| | | | DON'T MISS DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | — A new super PAC has popped up in Wisconsin's Senate race: Courageous Leaders PAC, which filed its formation paperwork with the FEC earlier this month, reported spending $425,000 backing Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes on Friday. No word yet on funders, but the second-quarter FEC reporting period ends June 30, with reports due by July 15.
| | | | A message from American Edge Project:   | | | | | | — "Phil Murphy's first 2024 hurdle: New Jersey Democrats," by POLITICO's Matt Friedman : "As Murphy tries to burnish his image as someone who's putting progressive policies to work, he faces a major obstacle: A skittish Legislature led by members of his own party. He's pushing more measures to stiffen the state's already strict gun laws. He wants to further open up abortion access. The response from fellow Democrats has been muted, if not an outright 'no.' The legislative leaders, simply put, are worried about feeding a Republican resurgence." — " DeSantis says Florida will 'expand pro-life protections' after Supreme Court ruling," by POLITICO's Arek Sarkissian: "DeSantis didn't provide details on how he or Florida's GOP-controlled House and Senate would seek to further restrict abortion access in the state. Republican legislative leaders had previously signaled a willingness to pursue more prohibitions during next year's legislative session." — " Trump fatigue sets in: 'Some donors are getting sick of the sh--show,'" by POLITICO's Meridith McGraw and Matt Dixon: "In interviews, those operatives describe a GOP electorate still enamored with Trump and dismissive of the [Jan. 6] committee and its findings. But elements of the voters, donors and activists that make the three pillars of the party are exhausted too, they say. And they're growing less willing to let the baggage of the Trump years complicate the future." — "Roe reversal divides 2024 GOP field," by POLITICO's Natalie Allison: "Mike Pence set the bar. He called for a nationwide ban on abortion, though notably did not say Washington should enact it." CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY — "Alabama GOP declares state Senate race a tie, to be decided 'by lot'" (AL.com)
| | | | A message from American Edge Project: From our midterm voter poll in partnership with Ipsos:
74 percent of voters agree that "breaking up U.S. tech companies will only hurt America's competitiveness on the global stage, at a time when our adversaries are becoming bolder."
69 percent of voters agree that "breaking up U.S. tech companies threatens our national security by letting China gain a technological upper hand."
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