BUDGET SHOWDOWN: If the battle over California's state budget were a boxing match, the fight would be in the 12th round. This isn't boxing, though, so don't expect any oversize championship belts, knockout punches (fingers crossed, for everyone's sake) or even Snoop Dogg appearances (you know what I'm talkin' about, Tyson v. Jones Jr. viewers). Still, the days leading up to a June 15 deadline for the Legislature to pass a budget will assuredly bring their fair share of sweat, jawing and fancy footwork on the part of lawmakers and Co. — all free of steep pay-per-view rates. As negotiations reach the homestretch, a behemoth of a budget bill hit the Legislature's website on Wednesday — the kind of legislation long enough to test the Legislature's systems, including, presumably, its printers. The bill , reflecting a joint Assembly-Senate budget agreement, cleared the Senate Budget Committee today and is "likely" to reach the Senate floor Monday, its committee chair, state Sen. Nancy Skinner (D-Berkeley), tweeted today. "Meanwhile, negotiations w/ @GavinNewsom continue," she wrote. Those negotiations have, by all appearances, drawn their fair share of haggling despite the state swimming in a record budget surplus. Part of the rub has to do with how much cash to put toward ongoing costs, as revenues are still buoyed by massive influxes of pandemic relief and a tangled web of other variables make it difficult to predict how much California can expect to rake in next year. That's not to mention the Legislative Analyst's Office warning about the heightened risk of a recession over the next two years — a caution with the power to reverberate in a state still haunted by painful '08-era cuts. Beyond those number-crunching wrinkles, there's considerable daylight between statehouse leadership and Gov. Gavin Newsom in several policy areas, including school funding, an arena where the Legislature passed on a Newsom proposal meant to shield school districts from funding dips associated with pandemic-era enrollment declines. It's a move that has the education community "reeling," longtime school lobbyist Kevin Gordon told Playbook PM last week. Meanwhile, as Democrats prepare to finalize details, Assembly Republicans are trying to put on the brakes with a "Where Did the Money Go?" campaign, complaining that the state is spending without accountability, pointing to homelessness programs and wildfire prevention that they say have yet to yield results — as well as the backlog at the EDD that left many Californians waiting months for Covid-relief help. "The bottom line is this: Here in California we continue to pay the most to get the least in results," said Republican Leader James Gallagher (R-Yuba City), standing in front of the Capitol this morning. Another bottom line: Republicans have little power to halt a mass surplus-era spend in a Legislature dominated by Democrats. So, if you're watching ringside as the final round of California's budget bout concludes, look for Newsom and Democratic leadership in the corners. HAPPY THURSDAY AFTERNOON! Welcome to California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check of California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Today is our last edition until we return in August for the legislative homestretch. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to katymurphy@politico.com and bjones@politico.com or send a shout on Twitter. DMs are open!
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