The (potential) good news about the Covid wave

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Jun 17, 2022 View in browser   By Myah Ward Presented by Meta Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra appears before a Senate committee. | Pool photo by Greg Nash SICK AGAIN — We're at another one of those moments where it's hard to know exactly what's going on in the pandemic. People are out and about more now than ever — often unmasked — and at the same time, it seems like everyone has the virus. It's hitting colleagues left and right, and if you've managed to avoid infection for almost 2.5 years now, you may be wondering: Is my time finally up? This week's news that none other than Anthony Fauci tested positive probably didn't help with those feelings. Then there's HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, who tested positive for the second time in roughly a month. To get a grasp on this stage of the pandemic, Nightly called Paul Thomas , an immunologist at St. Jude's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., who talked us through Becerra's case, what Covid is teaching us about our immune systems — and what it means for the future of the pandemic. This conversation has been edited. Do we benefit from the same infection protection with Omicron as we have in the past?  There are some recent reports hypothesizing that there's something weird about Omicron viruses that mess up your immune memory. Those reports are incredibly preliminary, and we need, as a field, to be very, very careful. Because there's nothing that I've seen data-wise so far that suggests there's anything extraordinary about how our immune systems are evolving to respond to these new strains. In cases like Becerra's, you have to ask whether or not it's actually still the same infection. There are multiple case reports now with really good sequencing that shows that there are people who are positive, and then they go negative, and they come positive again. And it's literally the exact same virus. It's also possible it's sort of a kooky case of reinfection where, assuming that this person is otherwise healthy, it's probably that it's two pretty different strains. With something like this, where everyone is getting infected, really rare events get magnified in a way. We have to be careful to put it in context of the overall dynamics of the pandemic. So if you had BA.1 around the holidays, your protection against BA.5 is probably not great?   I've seen unpublished data about how different Omicron classic, BA.1, is from BA.5. They're the farthest apart. But they go in that order: If you had Omicron classic, then you're probably pretty closely protected from BA.2. If you had BA.2, you're pretty closely protected from BA.4 and maybe even BA.5, so on. But if you got BA.1, you're probably least protected against BA.5. That's just going to be the cycle that we go through as this virus keeps evolving. Do we have any idea when this cycle ends?  Unfortunately coronaviruses were generally understudied prior to this pandemic. We don't really know with a lot of rigor, the way we do for something like the flu. It's clear that one vaccination wasn't enough to eliminate the virus. It's still evolving. People still get infected. We have breakthrough infections. But I think we're seeing signals that you're starting to build up population immunity where people are showing more and more evidence of longer and longer-term protection, as we would expect. Sometimes it's hard to see that signal through the noise of these waves of the pandemic, where all of a sudden everyone you know is getting infected. The vaccines have remained effective against severe disease and death, but what's the next step to better combat these breakthrough cases as people are out and about more? I think most immunologists would agree that keeping the old vaccine is diminishing returns at this point. Like we do for flu, switching the antigen seems logical. We need a better system for how quickly we switch it. With the flu, you don't do a whole clinical trial every time you switch the antigen, and you can do a six-month — or even less — turnaround. It would be great if we could get something moving a little bit faster. But the real wild card is, at some point, you're going to get an immune memory response that's actually pretty effective. And hopefully we see the virus kind of slow down a little bit. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Programming Note: We'll be off this Monday for Juneteenth. We will be back in your inboxes on Tuesday, June 21. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at mward@politico.com or on Twitter at @MyahWard. A message from Meta: Doctors can practice high-risk situations risk-free in the metaverse In the metaverse, future surgeons will be able to practice advanced procedures hundreds of times before seeing real patients – helping them gain experience and master their skills. The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real. Learn how Meta is helping build the metaverse.   What'd I Miss? — FDA authorizes Pfizer, Moderna Covid vaccines for babies, toddlers: The agency today authorized the two Covid-19 vaccines for emergency use in babies, toddlers and preschool-aged children , and also authorized the Moderna vaccine for kids 6 to 17. Once CDC Director Rochelle Walensky signs off on a recommendation, children are expected to begin receiving shots by Tuesday. — Navarro pleads not guilty to contempt charges: Former Trump administration adviser Peter Navarro pleaded not guilty today to charges that he defied a subpoena of the Jan. 6 select committee. He will go on trial in mid-November after an unsuccessful attempt to postpone so as not to interfere with the release of his forthcoming pro-Trump book. Along with Steve Bannon, Navarro is the second ally of former President Donald Trump implicated in the events of Jan. 6, 2021, set for trial this year on contempt of Congress charges. — Iowa rules abortion not protected by state constitution: The Iowa Supreme Court today cleared the way for lawmakers to severely limit or even ban abortion in the state, reversing a decision by the court just four years ago that guaranteed the right to the procedure . The court, now composed almost entirely of Republican appointees, concluded that a less conservative court wrongly decided that abortion is among the fundamental privacy rights guaranteed by the state constitution and federal law. — Republicans who break from the base are House's endangered species: The boundaries of the House GOP tent became clearer this week, when two incumbents known for repudiating Trump after the Jan. 6 Capitol attack faced South Carolina primary voters — and only one, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), survived. In a neighboring district, Rep. Tom Rice became the first political casualty of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach the former president last year. — New York may partially ban cryptocurrency mining if Hochul doesn't veto it: The state is on the verge of becoming the first in the nation to partially ban some energy-intensive Bitcoin mining operations , putting Gov. Kathy Hochul in the middle of a fight between environmental activists supportive of the measure and crypto enthusiasts who are demanding she veto it. The bill would pause some permits used for mining if the facilities are powered by fossil fuel plants that spew planet-warming gasses. — Husband of former Trump official steps down amid WWE misconduct probe: Vince McMahon is stepping down as CEO and chair of WWE after the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that the organization was investigating an alleged $3 million payment from McMahon to a departing female employee following a consensual affair.   DON'T MISS DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED:  Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.     PUNCHLINES DEJA VU — In this edition of Punchlines, Matt Wuerker and Garrett Graff look back at Watergate, on its 50th anniversary, and draw out the similarities between that scandal and Trump's, from the Ukraine call to Jan. 6. Nightly Number 4 days The amount of time senators leading gun talks have to turn the framework into bill text if they want to move a bill before the July 4, two-week-long recess. "But that's assuming the bill will be ready pretty quickly next week and all 100 senators cooperate — so don't hold your breath," writes Nancy Vu in Congress Minutes.   A message from Meta:   AROUND THE WORLD RACE AGAINST TIME — President Joe Biden surprised some European and U.S. officials this week when he publicly announced that the U.S. was working with European partners to help store Ukrainian grain across the border in Poland — a sign of the new level of urgency within the White House as time runs short to get Ukraine's harvested crops out of the country, write Meredith Lee and Eddy Wax. Biden appeared to jump the gun announcing plans that are still in their early stages, according to U.S. and EU officials. Poland's deputy prime minister, who also serves as agriculture minister, said the implementation of those plans — which would involve building temporary grain silos near the Ukrainian border — is likely still months away. Key Ukrainian officials were not looped in on details of the U.S. involvement, a Ukrainian official told POLITICO. But as diplomatic talks to end Russia's blockade of Ukraine's ports drag on without resolution, and with another Ukrainian wheat harvest just weeks away, the Biden administration is desperate to find ways to move as much grain as possible out of the war-torn country. They estimate the blockade is holding back more than 20 million tons of grain from the world food supply, driving food prices and world hunger to near-crisis levels. Ukrainian officials are warning that the storage problem will get only worse with the summer harvest.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     Parting Words "[Juneteenth is] certainly a time in which parents should be using to talk to their children about the emancipation, about the legacy of slavery, and the fight — the anti-racist fight — against that legacy. Even for Black parents — I know it's hard for me to talk to my daughter, about slavery — but I also know it's important for her to know her history. I also know it's important for her to know, the Black folk who constantly challenged slavery. For her to know about Harriet Tubman or Frederick Douglass, for her to know about those who organized slave revolts. So she could know that, yes, Black people were enslaved, but we constantly resisted. And we're still resisting today." — Ibram X. Kendi, historian and anti-racism scholar, as told to POLITICO's Brakkton Booker in today's edition of The Recast, where they discussed everything from Kendi's latest book to why "racism is a bipartisan affair" in the United States Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. A message from Meta: The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real Meta is helping build the metaverse so aviation mechanics will be able to practice servicing different jet engines – preparing them for any complex job. The result: A more skilled workforce. Learn how Meta is helping build the metaverse.     Follow us on Twitter Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Myah Ward @myahward   Follow us

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