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A newsletter from POLITICO that unpacks essential global news, trends, and decisions.
Jul 01, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Global Insider

By Ryan Heath

Follow Ryan on Twitter.

Programming Note: We'll be off this Monday for the Fourth of July but will be back in your inboxes on Wednesday July 6. 

If you're part of my American audience celebrating Independence this weekend, take a moment to think about how you can contribute to keeping your country from going off the rails. That's the overall message from a range of Global Insiders your host spoke to over the past week in Europe.

From prime ministers to rock stars and trade union leaders to perplexed journalists, I heard a lot of worry about the ending of an American era. The phrases thrown at me included: "deep hole," "they don't know how to talk to each other anymore" and "they know what to do, they just can't bring themselves to do it."

During the Trump administration, foreigners tended to attribute America's malaise to the president himself. That wishful thinking is over — replaced by recognition that the problems are deeper than one person. Apparently 85 percent of Americans share these fears.

Whatever America's problems, at least the president can still eat meals with Vice President Kamala Harris. The same can't be said here in Paris, from where Global Insider comes to you this morning. Here, Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne is having trouble getting face time with President Emmanuel Macron: "She only eats seeds, it drives the president crazy," an Elysée adviser told Le Point.

Happening Today

Speaking after meeting his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, Indonesian President Joko Widodo said that Russia has agreed to open a sea route for Ukrainian wheat exports, though provided no details. Ukraine is looking to Turkey for security guarantees to allow the grain shipments while avoiding demining Black Sea waters.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is in Hong Kong, defending Beijing's suppression of the territory, on the 25th anniversary of the communist regime taking control of the former British colony.

NATO SUMMIT DEEP DIVE

The ultimate summit wrap-up — from an event that positioned the alliance on the brink of a confrontation with Russia. Unlike the Cold War, disinformation, cyber warfare, hypersonic missiles, armed drones, and new domains of conflict like the Arctic and outer space have all injected highly uncertain risks (read more here about how consumer drones are changing warfare).

EU Confidential podcast talks to Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas.

Biden notches a NATO win: Jonathan Lemire's analysis

NEW NEMESIS: NATO leaders have designated China as a source of "systemic challenges" to Euro-Atlantic security, in their new strategic concept, while bluntly branding Russia as "the most significant and direct threat to Allies' security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area." More on the NATO strategic concept here by POLITICO's David Herszenhorn.

Not one inch: Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, said "NATO's core responsibility" is "to make sure that there is no misunderstanding in the minds of any adversary, that if they do anything like what Russia has done to Georgia in 2008 or Ukraine now, that will trigger the full response from the whole alliance."

China is not amused by the attendance of Japan, Australia and New Zealand at the NATO summit.

WHAT'S NEXT?

Expect Turkey to use the trilateral agreement it reached to allow Sweden and Finland into NATO as cover for a military operation against Kurdish strongholds in northern Syria. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wants to establish a "safe zone" around 20 miles deep. Russia likely doesn't have the capacity to fight Erdoğan, and the U.S. doesn't have the interest.

NATO BRAIN FOOD 

To save NATO, destroy it: The alliance is a mile wide, and inch deep argues Matthew Karnitschnig.

Caspian Sea summit is no match for NATO … unless table size matters.

A Roman Empire Alliance? That's Boris Johnson's latest musing — though Macron also claims authorship — of what is ultimately only a vague idea to bring the EU, U.K., Turkey and key North African states together is some kind of forum.

The 57-country Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe is hamstrung by Russian membership, though it could play a crucial role in enforcing any Russia-Ukraine peace agreement.

JUST FOR FUN 

Can't make this up: Italian news agency ANSA reported three Italian howitzers "bound for Ukraine" that were stopped by traffic police… because the vehicles transporting them lacked registration papers.

Russia for lunch : The lunch menu for journalists at the NATO summit? "Russian salad." The hearty dish is common in Spain — a cold potato salad with hard boiled eggs and mayonnaise, which goes back to a Belgian cook who created it in 1860 for l'Ermitage Restaurant in Moscow. Spaniards add tuna and beetroot to make it their own.

 

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GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

HONG KONG — THE END OF AUTONOMY: Today was supposed to mark the halfway point of 50 years of autonomy under the post-colonial "One Country, Two Systems" framework. Instead, we mark the end of fundamental freedoms, the jailing of opposition leaders and the shuttering of independent media: 10,000 Hong Kongers have been arrested on political grounds by the authorities since 2019.

IRAN — A NEW CHALLENGE TO THE REGIME: It's coming from teachers, explains Hossein Abedini.

EU — BULGARIA CLOSE TO SUPPORT NORTH MACEDONIA MEMBERSHIP BID: An agreement brokered by Paris is set to "pave the way for opening of EU accession talks with North Macedonia," per European Council President Charles  Michel. "We are the closest we have ever been: now is the time to say yes," Michel said Thursday. POLITICO's Christian Oliver has the backstory.

MALTA —  ABORTION BAN REVIEW COMING: The only EU country with a total ban on abortion is reviewing its restrictive law, Malta Today reported. While the widespread concern in Europe about the overturning of Roe v. Wade in the U.S. is real, this Maltese move is more to do with horrified reactions to American tourist Andrea Prudente needing an airlift to Spain terminate an univable pregnancy, after nearly dying during a miscarriage earlier this week.

NIGERIA — FACING FINANCIAL IMPLOSION: Unemployment is at 33 percent, inflation is at 18 percent and theft of oil is increasing.

ENVIRONMENT — COUNTING TREES: World Resources Institute has new findings showing that 36 countries are gaining more trees than they're losing. Altogether, 131 million hectares of land gained tree cover between 2000 and 2020. But more than 231 million hectares lost tree cover … so the earth is still going backward, including because there is a net loss of old-growth, carbon-rich forests.

ENVIRONMENT — SUPREME COURT SMOTHERS PRESIDENT'S EMISSIONS POWERS: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Environmental Protection Agency has only limited authority to regulate greenhouse gases from power plants, dealing a significant blow to the administration's efforts to curb what Biden deems is the "existential threat" of climate change. The decision "deprives the president of his power to address major global problems through international agreements," said New York University's David Golove.

In a statement following the decision, the president said that the Court's 6-3 vote "risks damaging our nation's ability to keep our air clean and combat climate change."

Background reading: "The Court and the World," by recently retired Justice Stephen Breyer , who argued that the U.S. judicial branch must increasingly weigh the power of its decisions on other nations.

TAX — GLOBAL MINIMUM TAX DEAL LATEST: The Tax Foundation released a new report Thursday examining slow progress around implementing model rules for a global minimum tax which were released in December 2021, but notes that companies repatriated $1.54 trillion in foreign earnings between 2018 and 2020 — a dramatic increase on earlier rates of repatriation, indicating that while the global tax deal will force further change on how U.S. multinational companies move money, it will be a case of more evolution rather than revolution.

Timing: "It now looks like Dec. 31, 2023, is the earliest date other major jurisdictions are aiming for implementing the rules," wrote Daniel Bunn, from the foundation.

Background: The deal would allow governments to tax profits from companies that make sales into their country, but don't have a physical location there (a policy known as Pillar 1), and implement a global minimum tax ( Pillar 2).

DATAPOINT — DIVERSE LEADERSHIP CORRELATED WITH LOWER CARBON: Organizations with more women managers tend to have lower carbon emissions, per World Economic Forum data analysis.

 

Industry Leaders at One-Day Tech Event on July 21: The American dream is a MerITocracy – powered by policy and technology as they relate to education and workforce, global competitiveness, security and privacy, and citizen services. On July 21, join tech industry visionaries from Dell, Google Cloud, DocuSign, and Consumer Technology Association, in addition to Hill and Biden Administration leaders as they discuss the future of tech innovation, regulation, and outcomes for America at MeriTalk's MerITocracy 2022: American Innovation Forum. Sign up here.

 
 
GLOBETROTTERS

CASH IN ON CRUSHING ELECTION INTERFERENCE: The U.S. Department of State's Rewards for Justice (RFJ) program is offering up to $10 million for information on foreign interference in U.S. elections. Since 1984, the program has disbursed over $250 million to more than 125 people who have helped resolve national security threats, officials said.

LIE FLAT BEDS COME TO ECONOMY CLASS: Air New Zealand will launch a system of bunk beds, available in four-hour booking slots during long-haul flights, starting in 2024.

BRAIN FOOD

The metamorphosis of J.K. Rowling, by Sarah Wheaton.

"I'm Penny Wong and I was born here" : Australia launches its new soft power weapon in Asia. Foreign Minister Penny Wong returns to Sabah, Malaysia.

Thanks to editor John Yearwood, producer Hannah Farrow and POLITICO's NATO reporting team: Cory Bennett, David M. Herszenshorn, Hans von der Burchard, Lili Bayer, Andrew Desiderio and Paul McLeary.

Congratulations to POLITICO's European team, which won editorial team of the year at the Digiday Media Awards. 

SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: D.C. Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | Paris Playbook| EU Confidential | D.C. Influence | EU Influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | China Direct | Berlin Bulletin | Living Cities

 

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