Beijing’s 'list diplomacy' bedevils U.S.-China relations

What's next in U.S.-China relations.

Jul 14, 2022 View in browser   By Phelim Kine Secretary of State Antony Blinken, right, shakes hands with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi during a meeting in Nusa Dua on the Indonesian resort island of Bali Saturday, July 9, 2022. | Stefani Reynolds/Pool Photo via AP Hi, China Watchers. After an epic road trip that included Brooklyn, Bennington and Ottawa, it's great to be back. And huge thanks to guest writers Yun Sun, Tara Joseph and Robin Shepherd who so ably helmed China Watcher in my absence. This week, we probe the results of Secretary of State Antony Blinken's meeting last week with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, unpack the Biden administration's Pacific Islands charm offensive and examine the U.N.'s grilling of Hong Kong's human rights record. And to mark Friday's 35th anniversary of Taiwan ending four decades of martial law, we look at the political and literary legacy of that period. Let's get to it. — Phelim Chinese Foreign Minister WANG YI sent Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN home from their bilat on the sidelines of the G-20 meeting in Bali with four lists of demands for U.S. action to resolve what Wang called unspecified "outstanding problems" in the relationship. They included the "List of U.S. Wrongdoings that Must Stop," the "List of Key Individual Cases that China Has Concerns With," the "List of Key China-related Legal Cases that China Has Concerns With" and the "List of China-U.S. Cooperation in Eight Areas." It's not the most sophisticated approach to 21st-century superpower diplomacy by a country that routinely urges the U.S. to view the bilateral relationship "in an objective and rational manner." The list titles would be comical if they didn't reflect the Chinese government's stubborn adherence to a transactional foreign policy approach hinged to U.S. concessions on issues of Chinese concern in exchange for progress in other areas of the relationship. But the balance of power is shifting. "Both countries continue to see the other as what they wish it to be, not as what they actually are: whereas Wang's readout firmly positions China as the dominant power, summoning the U.S. to align with Beijing's preferences with lists of demands that are supposed to force a change of behavior from Washington, Blinken's readout reflects a 'business as usual' posture that is stuck in 2008," said NADÈGE ROLLAND , senior fellow for political and security affairs at the National Bureau of Asian Research. "This doesn't signal the start of a corner turn towards improvement. Both countries are talking past each other. Beijing's demands won't be met. More tensions will occur." Blinken has not publicly commented on the lists or his assessment of how they might complicate an already fraught U.S. China relationship. Both the Chinese embassy in Washington, D.C. and the State Department declined to comment for this report. But Beijing has wasted no time in messaging that a timely Biden administration response to its demands is essential to a more stable relationship. "We hope the US side can take China's lists seriously," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson WANG WENBIN said Monday . "The lists once again demonstrate China's serious position that the US must stop exercising containment and suppression, stop interfering in China's internal affairs, and stop undermining China's sovereignty, security and development interests." The U.S. isn't the first country that China has targeted with diplomatic grievance lists. Australia received a 14-point list in 2020 that included complaints of "incessant wanton interference in China's Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan affairs." Wang Yi refreshed that list on Friday by presenting Australian Foreign Minister PENNY WONG four demands that Beijing sees as essential to improve relations. Beijing's Biden-focused list diplomacy began in earnest in July 2021 when Vice Premier XIE FENG presented U.S. Deputy Secretary of State WENDY SHERMAN with her very own "List of U.S. Wrongdoings that Must Stop" and a "List of Key Individual Cases that China Has Concerns With." To ensure that the State Department got the message, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson HUA CHUNYING followed up two months later by demanding that the U.S. "attach high importance and take concrete actions to empty the two lists." The only known resolution of an issue that China raised in those two lists was Canada's release of detained Huawei executive MENG WANZHOU in September as part of a deal that also freed wrongfully detained Canadian citizens MICHAEL KOVRIG and MICHAEL SPAVOR, who Chinese authorities jailed in an apparent reprisal for Meng's detention. Hua described Meng's release as "positive," but warned that "other thorns that vary in length still remain in China-US relations." National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN pushed back against China's transactional diplomacy in an October meeting with China's top diplomat, YANG JIECHI. Blinken implicitly referenced China's list diplomacy in his China strategy speech in May. "No country should withhold progress on existential transnational issues because of bilateral differences," Blinken said. But Beijing has ignored those overtures and continued to tie cooperation to U.S. willingness to trade diplomatic favors. "There have been instances where unfortunately, China has indicated that it refuses to cooperate on one set of issues because of something that's happening in another area … and that's just not how we operate," a senior State Department official told China Watcher. Blinken made clear to Wang that the U.S. will continue to confront China on hot button issues of principle, including Beijing's "alignment with Russia" over the Ukraine invasion, "genocide in Xinjiang" and ongoing Chinese military intimidation of Taiwan. But Blinken's readout of his meeting with Wang indicated that he believes that the bilateral relationship had shed the overt hostility that blighted the first meeting with Wang in Anchorage in March 2021. "Despite the complexities of our relationship, I can say with some confidence that our delegations found today's discussions useful and constructive," Blinken said over the weekend. "We discussed where more cooperation between our countries should be possible, including on the climate crisis, food security, global health, counternarcotics." That's a nice little list, but also likely wishful thinking. In the aftermath of Biden and Xi's Nov. 15 virtual meeting, administration officials revealed several new cooperation initiatives. They included an agreement on lifting restrictions on work visas for U.S. and Chinese journalists, closer collaboration on counternarcotics activities and bilateral talks regarding U.S. concerns about the rapid growth in China's nuclear arsenal. Eight months later, bilateral distrust has stalled those goals. Blinken's warning Tuesday that the U.S. military would respond to any Chinese "armed attack" on Philippine vessels in a disputed region of the South China Sea will only add to Beijing's arsenal of diplomatic grievances. Wang threaded the readout of his Blinken meeting with skepticism about the health of a bilateral relationship that he said was hobbled by U.S. "Chinaphobia." "At present, bilateral ties are still stuck in the predicament created by the previous U.S. administration and are even encountering more and more challenges," Wang said. That language reflects public posturing that doesn't necessarily mirror the tone or substance of actual bilateral engagement. Perhaps there's some progress simply in that Blinken and Wang can now have multi-hour meetings without any eruptions of mutual acrimony, as occurred in Alaska "You can't read too much about what happened in five hours of discussions from these readouts, which are both aimed at respective domestic audiences and … are meant to show that their side didn't give an inch and remains upset, but that they recognize larger practicalities requiring constructive diplomatic discourse," said SUSAN THORNTON, former acting assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. "I view this as an incremental move toward the normalization of meetings, which we haven't had for almost seven years, and which is crucial for managing this very important and complex relationship. Cooperating and competing simultaneously with one's competitors is a normal state of affairs, and we need to condition people in both countries to this complexity," Thornton added. TRANSLATING WASHINGTON — HARRIS WOOS PACIFIC ISLANDS: Vice President KAMALA HARRIS pledged renewed U.S. engagement with Pacific Island countries on Tuesday as part of U.S. efforts to counter China's deepening influence in the region. In a virtual address, Harris told the gathering of Pacific Island Forum nations that U.S. reengagement includes new embassies in Tonga and Kiribati, developing a new U.S. National Strategy on the Pacific Islands and redeploying Peace Corps volunteers to the region. As Harris beamed into the meeting in Fiji, police ejected from the venue two Chinese embassy personnel who'd misrepresented themselves as journalists. Biden underscored his administration's commitment to the Pacific Islands with the nomination Monday of ANN MARIE YASTISHOCK as ambassador to Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. Those initiatives reflect U.S. efforts to reassert its influence in the Pacific islands after China sealed a controversial security pact with Solomon Islands in April that surprised the U.S. and regional allies — and which many fear may provide a foothold for a Chinese military base. "Were there to be a Chinese base in the Pacific that would obviously completely change the national security landscape for Australia, and I might say for the Pacific," RICHARD MARLES, Australia's defense minister and deputy PM, said Monday at a briefing at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. — MCCONNELL THREATENS TO DERAIL CHINA BILL: Senate Republicans are backing Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL's threats to tank multi-billion dollar legislation aimed at confronting China, imperiling what initially appeared on track to join this Congress' biggest bipartisan achievements, POLITICO's ANDREW DESIDERIO and SARAH FERRIS reported Monday. McConnell's threat, sent via tweet, aimed to derail Democrats' fledgling efforts to revive their party-line tax and climate bill, which all Republicans are expected to oppose. — DOJ BUSTS CHINESE 'TRANSNATIONAL REPRESSION' RING: The Department of Justice announced last week that it was prosecuting five individuals, including three Chinese nationals, for their role in a "transnational repression scheme orchestrated on behalf of the government of the People's Republic of China," a DOJ statement said. The suspects are linked to activities designed to "silence, harass, discredit and spy on" U.S. residents whose views — including support for democracy in China — Beiing opposes. Hot from the China Watchersphere Medical workers wearing protective suits take swab samples from residents for nucleic acid testing at a community in Chaoyang District on April 27, 2022, in Beijing, China. | Lintao Zhang/Getty Images — REPORT: ZERO-COVID ISN'T GOING ANYWHERE: Chinese President XI JINPING'S signature "zero-Covid strategy" will continue well into next year, a report published last week by the Economist Intelligence Unit concluded. "We expect the zero-covid strategy to remain in place in 2023 — and potentially beyond — but the policy tools will be loosened over time," the report said. — U.N. SCRUTINIZES HONG KONG'S RIGHTS RECORD: The United Nations Human Rights Committee's formal review of Hong Kong's human rights record on Monday and Tuesday subjected officials to intensive questioning on the impact of the territory's draconian National Security Law introduced in June 2020. The proceeding was marred by the Hong Kong authorities' refusal to guarantee that the hearing's participants — particularly Hong Kong civil society activists — would be immune from prosecution under the law. Meanwhile, Hong Kong's outgoing U.S. consul general, HANSCOM SMITH, said in his farewell remarks on Monday that diplomats in the territory have faced National Security Law prosecution threats "for conducting ordinary business." Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson WANG WENBIN dismissed that allegation as "groundless and hyperbolic." — IMPRISONED AMERICAN LAUNCHES LEGAL FEES GOFUNDME: The Alabama-based family of NELSON WELLS JR., one of up to 200 U.S. citizens behind bars in China in cases of wrongful detention, has launched a GoFundMe campaign for his "legal fees and welfare support." Wells has been in prison for more than eight years on spurious drug trafficking charges. "Wells is seriously ill … and should be granted medical parole to receive treatment abroad," JOHN KAMM, founder of the nonprofit prisoner release advocacy organization Dui Hua Foundation told China Watcher. Blinken said he "raised cases of Americans who are detained or otherwise unable to leave the country" in his meeting Saturday with Chinese Foreign Minister WANG YI. The Biden administration is seeking "a resolution that gets the government of China and everywhere where there are American citizens who are currently detained, to get them released and get them home," national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said Tuesday. Translating China Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe talks to China's President Xi Jinping during a meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Dec. 23, 2019. | Noel Celis/AP Photo  — CHINESE NATIONALISTS TOAST SHINZO ABE'S DEATH: Segments of the Chinese internet reacted to the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe with glee and anti-Abe vitriol, POLITICO's NICOLLE LIU and your host reported Friday. Multiple commentators on the Chinese social media platform Weibo greeted news of Abe's shooting — allegedly by a 41-year old Japanese man whose motives remain unclear — at a campaign event Friday by calling for "wine and dine" to toast his death. Some said his killer is a "hero," as Abe pioneered a foreign policy geared to countering the expansion of China's growing economic, diplomatic and military footprint in the Indo-Pacific that infuriated Beijing. — TAIWAN'S MARTIAL LAW LEGACY: Friday marks the 35th anniversary of the end of Taiwan's four decades of martial law. The Kuomintang (Nationalist) government of CHIANG KAI-SHEK imposed martial law on the island on May 20, 1949, two years after it fled from the Chinese Communist Party's victorious People's Liberation Army. Martial law made the island — renamed The Republic of China — a police state that covered up mass killings of civilians and ushered in a decades-long period known as the "White Terror" during which security forces tortured, disappeared and executed suspected dissidents with impunity. The government of President TSAI ING-WEN formed a Transitional Justice Commission in 2018 to seek accountability for those abuses. The commission concluded its work in May with a detailed set of recommendations, a reparations scheme for victims and their families and there are plans to create a permanent government agency to continue the commission's work. China Watcher spoke to YU-JIE CHEN, assistant research professor at Academia Sinica's Institutum Iurisprudentiae in Taipei about those efforts. The interview was edited for length and clarity. What is the legacy of martial law? Taiwan's collective memory of the long-lasting struggle against the "White Terror" and also a proud sense of democratic achievement. Some earlier generations of democratic activists are still burdened with the pain inflicted by the martial law era. The younger generations who grow up in a democratic Taiwan have never lived a day of martial law, but they are also very protective of Taiwan's democracy. The dictatorship has taught Taiwan that respect for freedom and human rights has to be fought for and earned. What did the Transitional Justice Commission achieve? There was an unfortunate incident that tainted the commission's reputation and made the commission appear politicized. The measures to confiscate the KMT's assets illegally gained during martial law have proved to be controversial as well. But overall, the commission should be proud of what it has achieved, including exonerating political convictions and declassifying some of the secret files under martial law. What responsibility does the U.S. have in supporting Taiwan's efforts toward transitional justice? The U.S. government has a moral obligation to help Taiwan's democracy thrive … because of its past support for the KMT's dictatorship. For Taiwan's democracy to thrive, Taiwan must become a vibrant member of the international community — this is where the U.S. government can be helpful. HEADLINES Washington Post: "Protesting bank depositors in China beaten by mob as police stand by" Vice News: "Undercover In Guyana: Exposing Chinese Business in South America" New York Times: "Can You Blame Poor Countries Like Mine for Turning to China?" HEADS UP — BLINKEN TEASES UPCOMING BIDEN-XI CALL: Hurry up and wait for that long-anticipated phone call between Biden and Xi. "Our expectation is that they will have an opportunity to speak in the weeks ahead, and I can't talk to what may happen in the fall," Blinken told reporters on Sunday. Does that reference to fall suggests that a Biden-Xi in-person summit may be in the works for the autumn? Stay tuned. One Book, Three Questions A cover of the book "A Son of Taiwan: Stories of Government Atrocity" is pictured. | Cambria Press The Book:A Son of Taiwan: Stories of Government Atrocity The Editors: SYLVIA LI-CHUN LIN and HOWARD GOLDBLATT. Lin is a former associate professor of Chinese Literature at the University of Colorado Boulder and the University of Notre Dame and the author of books, including"Representing Atrocity: The 2/28 Incident and White Terror in Fiction and Film." Goldblatt is a literary translator of numerous works of contemporary Chinese fiction and former research professor of Chinese at the University of Notre Dame. What is the most important takeaway from your book? Taiwan's history is replete with foreign colonization, whether by the Spanish or the Dutch in premodern eras, or occupation by China and Japan in more recent times. Freedom from the whims and brutality of foreign overlords, most recently that of Chiang Kai-Shek's KMT regime, has been costly. Since the post-martial law release of files that paint a true picture of this period in Taiwan's history, descendants of Chiang Kai-shek's victims have led Taiwan from Chiang's totalitarian regime to a true democracy, where every vote counts and errant officials can be recalled by voters. What was the most surprising thing you learned while researching and writing this book? The diverse backgrounds and ages of the stories' authors. The older ones lived through the era and were persecuted, while the youngest started writing after the 1987 lifting of martial law, which slowly brought the past up to the present. The cover artist was himself a victim, shot during the White Terror era. Clearly, memories of the past are being kept alive, so that such atrocities will not be forgotten or repeated. What does your book tell us about the trajectory and future of U.S.-China relations? The Western, democratic world has a moral and political responsibility to ensure Taiwan's security so the threatened island, frequently held up as Asia's only true democracy, will continue to be a beacon of civil liberties and freedom. The U.S. government, in particular, must take the lead, as the persecution and execution of dissents that forms the framing of this book was carried out with the implicit support of successive U.S. government's during the heyday of anti-Communist policies. Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com. Thanks to: Ben Pauker, Matt Kaminski, digital producer Andrew Howard, Nicolle Liu, Andrew Desiderio, Sarah Ferris and editor John Yearwood. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week's items? Email us at chinawatcher@politico.com.   Follow us

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