KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON — AS CHAOS ENGULFS DOWNING STREET Boris Johnson knows a thing or two about chaos. His personal life has been characterized by it; he injected it into the 2016 Brexit referendum by choosing the "Leave" side at the last minute (despite growing up in Brussels as the son of an EU official); and he arrived in Downing Street after spending months destabilizing Prime Minister Theresa May, his party leader. Now Johnson is on course to leave the prime ministership neck deep in scandals. In the latest Westminister sex scandal (there's been at least nine in 2022 alone), it emerged Tuesday that Johnson — after claiming no knowledge — was warned about alleged serial sexual assaulter Chris Pincher 's behavior on at least five separate occasions since July 2019. Indeed, it was Johnson's job to know: He was Pincher's boss at the U.K. Foreign Office in 2019, and his boss again in Downing Street after he appointed Pincher as a party whip. Labour's opposition leader Keir Starmer locked eyes on Johnson in the House of Commons this morning and suggested he was so familiar with the problem he had even joked " Pincher by name, Pincher by nature." Starmer slammed the remaining Cabinet members as "nodding dogs" guilty of a "pathetic spectacle" in allowing Johnson to remain in power. Read bellwether columnist Alice Thomson on why enough is enough. BORIS THE REMAINER: There is no easy mechanism to force Johnson out of power, and Johnson insists he will stay on. "F- - - that" was Johnson's reply to an ally asking if he would step down. Former colleague Rory Stewart noted: "We are now entering the stage where it will be almost impossible for Boris Johnson to replace and fill his ministry positions." The resignations are flowing at such at rate that there are at least 16 junior ministerial vacancies, and perhaps as many as 19. UNPOPULAR POPULIST: Can you imagine a female leader fashioning her hair like she just got out of bed? That's a daily reminder of how Johnson has often defied political gravity — succeeding by doing things that would cause others to crash and burn. Johnson relied on electoral success to maintain his gravity-defying bubble. But there are only so many lies and falsehoods one can pile up around oneself. Voters, Britain's powerful newspaper newspapers, MPs and now ministers on Johnson's payroll have all turned against him. Fewer than one in five voters (18 percent) thinks he should remain — even a majority of Conservative voters wants him to leave office. What Johnson achievements will history books recall? Getting Britain out of the EU, mostly. He also locked in Britain's net zero emissions pathway — the end point of a 15-year process started under David Cameron, which saw the British Conservatives split from their American and Australian counterparts on climate. Historians will lament his Covid management, which nearly caused him to lose his own life. Next in line: New Chancellor, Nadhim Zahawi — who came to Britain as a Kurdish refugee fleeing Saddam Hussein and worked as a pollster before politics — has not fully explained why he attended a men's-only "Presidents Club" dinner in 2018 where dozens of women say they were sexually assaulted and harassed by guests, and where items up for charity auction included strip club trips and plastic surgery "to spice up your wife." CLIMATE — THE METHANE MESS Methane is roughly 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide, but it's now been found to be four times more sensitive to global warming than previously thought, per a new study published in Nature Communications, a peer-reviewed journal. The key point: Methane comes from a mix of human activity (including oil and gas exploration and cattle farming) and natural sources such as tropical wetlands and Arctic tundra, and is partially mopped up by hydroxyl radicals in the atmosphere. As human-induced climate change speeds up, it turns out natural sources of methane are generating more and more methane, and hydroxyl radicals are proving less effective at mopping it up: a double-whammy. At least one country is betting big on climate protection … Gabon. ECONOMY — THE MESS IN SRI LANKA The economic situation in Sri Lanka is dire, and largely the country's own making — call it the new Lebanon perhaps, including because of the voiceless people who will suffer most. Then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa implemented absurd tax cuts in 2019: cutting sales tax in half, and abolishing both pay-as-you-earn income tax and an infrastructure tax. The number of taxpayers fell by a third and the deficit ballooned, making debt payments impossible once Covid costs further drained the budget. The country has already defaulted and now it has all but run out of fuel. The new government led by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, sworn-in after massive protests earlier this year, failed to reach a loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund after 10 days of in-person talks, which ended Thursday. The IMF has committed to continuing the talks virtually, and the government is pursuing a supplementary plan: an aid consortium made up of India, Japan and China. THE MESS IN UKRAINE WHERE ARE THE WEAPONS? Now that Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared victory in Ukraine's eastern Luhansk province, his forces have better chances to capture the parts of Donetsk (the other section of the Donbas region) they don't already control. If he can manage that, his incentive to declare an end to fighting will be significantly increased. A Twitter thread from our correspondent Christopher Miller on how Western governments are not delivering enough of their promised weapons to Ukraine. GRAIN DEAL IS CLOSE, SAYS ERDOĞAN: "Negotiations are going ahead so that this grain, and sunflower oil, everything can reach the world," Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told a press conference in Ankara, suggesting there will be a result next week. Putin said prior to the G-7 summit: "Let them de-mine [the ports] and export, we'll ensure the safety of civilian ships." STOLEN GRAIN MYSTERY DEEPENS: The Zhibek Zholy left Ukraine's Russian-occupied port of Berdyansk with allegedly stolen grain in June but Turkish customs officials are investigating the cargo off the shores of Karasu: Full background story here. While the ship is sailing under a Russian flag, a complicated web of companies is involved. Kazakh company KTZ Express Shipping is the ship's owner, and it leases it to the Russian company Green-Line, which uses an Estonian business — Mangelbert OÜ — to transport grain from Ukraine to Turkey, RIA Novosti reported. Where's the ship right now? Anchored right outside the Turkish port of Karasu, according to MarineTraffic. Russia recognizes the freeze, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a Monday press conference. DEMOCRACY IN AFRICA MALI — SANCTIONS LIFTED: The West African economic bloc ECOWAS lifted economic and financial sanctions against Mali's military government after it vowed to hold elections in February 2024, two years earlier than previously promised. SUDAN — MILITARY CLEARS WAYS FOR DEMOCRACY TALKS: Sudan's top general, Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan , committed to withdrawing the military from negotiations to form a new government to replace the military council that has governed since a 2021 coup. The U.N. mission in Sudan, African Union and a consortium of eight East African governments have been trying to negotiate a return to democracy. Pro-democracy groups have repeatedly said they will not negotiate with the military, The Associated Press reported. TUNISIA — NEW CONSTITUTION: A year after Tunisian President Kais Saied sacked his government and suspended the country's Constitution — he has published a draft new Constitution , which would limit Parliament's powers and expand the president's powers. A referendum is set for July 25. Whatever happens in that vote, Saied plans to rule by decree through the end of the year. BOTSWANA — CONVENES DEMOCRATS: The Botswana government and National Democratic Institute are co-hosting an International Summit on Constitutionalism and Democratic Consolidation in Africa from today to Friday: Register to watch the livestream. Speakers include four serving African presidents: Mokgweetsi Eric Keabetswe Masisi (Botswana), Uhuru Kenyatta (Kenya), Hage Geingob (Namibia), José Maria Pereira Neves (Cape Verde), Nigeria's former president Goodluck Jonathan and Uzra Zeya, U.S. under-secretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy and Human Rights. LATVIA — SPATE OF ANTI-RUSSIA MOVES: The government plans to reintroduce compulsory military service and tear down hundreds of Soviet-era monuments, a move that may incite severe reactions from the country's large Russian-speaking minority. NATO — FUNDING MILITARY INNOVATION WITH VENTURE CAPITAL: A new NATO Innovation Fund is described by the alliance as the "first multi-sovereign venture capital fund" and will offer just over $1 billion for start-ups and small businesses to innovate disruptive technologies to defend against cyberattacks. DIPLOMACY — HOW STATES AND CITIES CAN STEP UP: The Truman Center has rolled out a plan for cities, states and communities across the United States to contribute to foreign policy. Those behind the report include Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.). Executive summary here | full report here. TECH — HACKER CLAIMS TO HAVE STOLEN 1 BILLION CHINESE POLICE RECORDS: Global Insider wonders if the news is the theft, or the potential confirmation that the police track everyone?
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