How Trump is influencing California politics

Jeremy B. White and Lara Korte's must-read briefing on politics and government in the Golden State

Jul 06, 2022 View in browser   By Lara Korte, Jeremy B. White and Sakura Cannestra THE BUZZ: Love him or hate him, former President Donald Trump still matters. While many Republicans across the country are vying for his endorsement, hoping a blessing from Mar-a-Lago is enough to propel them to victory, candidates in California are taking a different tack — distancing themselves from Trump in a move that could ingratiate them with a voter base that largely reviles the former president and hasn't elected a Republican to statewide office in more than 15 years. Republican attorney general candidate Nathan Hochman told Playbook on Tuesday that he didn't vote for any presidential candidate in 2016 or 2020, but offered little reasoning as to why. He said he wasn't prepared to vote for anyone based on the "totality of the circumstances," so he left it blank. It's a tricky balance for Republicans in ultra-blue California. A pro-Trump candidate has little to no chance winning statewide in a general election, but rebuking the former president too early can put a candidate at risk of losing the primary election to another conservative. Even those who do make it to the top-two ballot want to be careful not to alienate the state's 5.2 million Republican voters. That thinking, of course, doesn't apply to every race in the state, like in CA-03, where Republicans outnumber Democrats and Trump's endorsement helped Assemblymember Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin) beat out Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones in June. Such a revelation about his voting record could've injured Hochman in the primary, where he narrowly won second place over Trump loyalist Eric Early by a margin of just 115,000 votes. Now, faced with a well-funded Democratic incumbent, Hochman wants to head off any efforts from Attorney General Rob Bonta's campaign to portray him as a Trump surrogate. "I believe [Bonta's] going to use the Donald Trump issue and other issues to divert voters' attention away from what should be the central issue of safety and security," Hochman said. A public condemnation from candidates on the right could make it harder for their Democratic opponents to paint them as radical Republicans peddling Trump's same polarizing agenda — a strategy successfully employed by Gov. Gavin Newsom last year in the recall campaign. Lanhee Chen , the party's endorsee for state controller, offered similar sentiments to CalMatters last week, saying he was concerned about the revelations coming out of Jan. 6 select committee hearings. Chen, a long time policy wonk for former Republican presidential candidate and current Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, told the outlet he wrote Romney's name in on his 2016 ballot and left it blank in 2020. Republican gubernatorial candidate state Sen. Brian Dahle (R-Bieber) also wants voters to know he's "not a crazy Republican," as he told the Associated Press yesterday, "I'm a reasonable person." Dahle also told the AP he voted for Trump and describes himself as "pro-life." It's not unusual for California Republicans to moderate themselves when running statewide. With an electorate that is mostly Democrats and no-party-preference voters, GOP candidates need to win independents and some liberal voters to have "any prayer at all," Republican consultant Rob Stutzman said. "It's the Republican blue state profile," he added. "You're going to be moderately liberal on social issues if you're going to have any type of opportunity." ABORTION RIGHTS: We can expect a similar strategy to play out with respect to abortion rights, an issue that has the potential to drive Democratic voters to the polls this November, especially with a state Constitutional amendment on the ballot. Chen, after some significant pressure from Democratic opponent Malia Cohen, told CalMatters he supports "women's reproductive freedom," including abortions. Hochman, too, describes himself as having always been "pro-choice," and said he would enforce California's laws protecting abortion and reproductive rights. Hochman said he supports State Constitutional Amendment 10, which would "prohibit the state from denying or interfering with an individual's reproductive freedom in their most intimate decisions, which includes their fundamental right to choose to have an abortion and their fundamental right to choose or refuse contraceptives." But there is some concern that, the way it's written, SCA 10 would go beyond the state's current law, which allows abortion in all cases up to the point of viability (about 24 weeks) and afterward only in cases where the mother's life or health is threatened. "If it goes beyond that," Hochman said. "I would have to understand exactly what it would be doing to change those laws." BUENOS DÍAS, good Wednesday morning. It's deadline day for opponents of Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascón, who will be submitting signatures to try and qualify a recall election. Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up: jwhite@politico.com and lkorte@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte.  QUOTE OF THE DAY: Newsom "might as well light a pile of cash on fire." Dave Abrams, spokesperson for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, following Newsom's ad in the Sunshine State, via Business Insider.  TWEET OF THE DAY: California Labor Federation's Lorena Gonzalez @LorenaSGonzales on the string of recent SCOTUS rulings: "Maybe if we hadn't been so damn polite & smart & reasonable, we wouldn't be facing the never ending losing battle we face today. I want bold electeds who stick by their progressive values & fight for the common good. We can still save our Country. Stop clutching your pearls." WHERE'S GAVIN? Out of state (apparently in Montana) with his family, leaving Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis in charge.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     TOP TALKERS CAMPAIGN SEASON ONE — "The Trailer: 'Nationalize this race': Democrats run on abortion in special elections," analysis by the Washington Post's David Wiegel: "Pat Ryan signed up for one of the worst jobs in Democratic politics — a swing-seat special election in New York at a lousy moment for his party." — "Ro Khanna Psychoanalyzes His Own Party," by Puck's Tara Palmeri: "In a wide-ranging and deeply revealing conversation, the progressive Silicon Valley congressman discusses Biden's re-election odds, Kavanaugh's politics, Kamala Harris's future, and the politics within his own conference as the Pelosi retirement rumors swirl." CAMPAIGN MODE — "Seeking higher office, WeHo councilwoman scrubs WeHo from her bio," by the Los Angeles Times' Jeong Park and Hailey Branson-Potts: "Some in West Hollywood are wondering if [city councilmember Lindsey] Horvath's ambition has led her to shy away from the proudly liberal city synonymous with its LGBTQ population." — "Exclusive: Why is California's Attorney General spending taxpayer money to send you emails? " by the Sacramento Bee's Ryan Sabalow: "[Attorney General Rob] Bonta never urged anyone to vote for him and he never mentions the election is two months away. Instead, all Bonta asks is for the recipient of the email to fill out an online survey to let him know what 'issues are most important to you.'" NEWSOM VS. HARRIS? — " Gavin Newsom is a stronger 2024 presidential candidate than Kamala Harris, poll says," by the SFGate's Eric Ting: "A recently released Yahoo News/YouGov survey conducted between June 24-27 polled hypothetical 2024 matchups between President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and Newsom on the Democratic side against former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on the Republican side." CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR — "Live updates: Electra Fire flares, prompts new evacuations, expands over 3,000 acres," by the Sacramento Bee's Amelia Davidson and Brianna Taylor: As of 12:58 p.m. Tuesday, "The Amador County Sheriff's Office expanded the evacuation order and warning zones for the Electra Fire." THE SAFETY OF MARRIAGE — "California's LGBTQ leaders are pushing to remove zombie same-sex marriage ban from the state Constitution ," by the San Francisco Chronicle's Dustin Gardiner: "While a U.S. District Court judge struck it down in 2010, the text of Prop. 8 remains a vestige in the state Constitution that cannot be removed without voter approval." — "Red States Are Winning the Post-Pandemic Economy ," by the Wall Street Journal's Josh Mitchell: "Red states have added 341,000 jobs over that time, while blue states were still short 1.3 million jobs as of May." — "Recession fears are rising. Here's why San Francisco could be hit harder than other cities ," by the San Francisco Chronicle's Roland Li: "Though the city's record low unemployment figure of 1.9% in May is 'a pretty clear sign that we're not in a recession at the moment,' there are potential risks, said Ted Egan, San Francisco's chief economist." CAL-ACCESS STRIKES AGAIN — " California's chronic technology woes will be probed," by CalMatters' Dan Walters: "The former secretary of state, Alex Padilla, once described Cal-Access as "a Frankenstein's monster of code" that is in need of "a complete rebuild" and sponsored 2016 legislation to create a replacement." — " UC Merced takes admissions on the road," by EdSource's Ashleigh Pando: "Besides being the only campus offering automatic freshman admission, it's the only campus that accepts first-year students who have been admitted to the University of California but did not get a spot at their preferred campus, according to UC Merced officials." — " State bill requires removal of 'racial covenants' from California property records," by the Mercury News' Ethan Varian: "While the covenants were deemed unenforceable by the U.S. Supreme Court in 1948, racial justice advocates say removing the racist language is necessary to confront the region's painful history of discrimination." MORE POWER TO US — " Nuclear Power Gets New Push in U.S., Winning Converts," by the New York Times' Ivan Penn: "Even past skeptics, largely Democrats, have come around to the idea — notably in California, where the state's sole remaining nuclear plant, Diablo Canyon, is scheduled to close in 2025." — " Drug courts face choice: Close or expand access after Prop. 47 fallout," by CalMatters' Nigel Duara: "Proposition 47 removed the threat of jail time for simple drug possession. Now participation in drug courts is way down."   INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.     BIDEN, HARRIS AND THE HILL — "Kamala Harris could break a record. Democrats wish she didn't have to," by the Los Angeles Times' Noah Bierman: "Vice President Kamala Harris is on pace to set an unusual record, breaking the most tie votes in the U.S. Senate." — "Griner sends letter to President Biden pleading for his help," by the Associated Press' Doug Feinberg: "Most of the letter's contents to President Biden remain private, though Griner's representatives shared a few lines from the hand-written note." SILICON VALLEYLAND — "Exclusive: Google Cloud signs biggest new lease in S.F. since pandemic began," by the San Francisco Business times' Laura Waxmann: "It's the biggest new lease or sublease in the city since the pandemic began more than two years ago." HOLLYWOODLAND A 'FIREWORK' — "Katy Perry called for abortion rights. Twitter dug up her support for Rick Caruso," by the Los Angeles Times' Alexandra del Rosario: "At first, a number of the singer's followers were unsure what the post meant, but others were quick to clap back by bringing up the singer's previous political endorsements." CANNABIS COUNTRY — "California cuts cannabis taxes to heal ailing industry," by CalMatters' Alexei Koseff: "Gov. Newsom and the Legislature cut a California cannabis tax, but not everyone is convinced it's enough to stabilize the legal market. Social equity operators say the changes don't do nearly enough to help them." MIXTAPE — "Labor pool shortage hits public pools. Here's why California needs lifeguards," by the Los Angeles Times' Anabel Sosa.  — "A rapper says he was wrongfully convicted of double murder. The San Francisco DA's office is on his side," by the San Francisco Chronicle's Joshua Sharpe. — " How a Victim of Violence on SF Muni Became One of the City's Leading Advocates of Public Transit Safety," by the San Francisco Standard's Han Li. — " Five shot inside Oakland Coliseum during A's post-game fireworks show," by the San Francisco Chronicle's Rachel Swan. CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here. Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you're promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.   Follow us on Twitter Jeremy B. White @JeremyBWhite Lara Korte @lara_korte POLITICO California @politicoca   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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