Is MBS a changed man?

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Jul 13, 2022 View in browser   By Nahal Toosi In the days after journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed by a Saudi hit squad, your host ran into a Republican senator at the airport on my way to — this is true, do not judge, it was glorious — Disney World. I ditched my travel partner to huddle with the lawmaker, pressing him on the Khashoggi case. The growing fury in Congress over the killing was largely directed at the man suspected of ordering it, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. It also was notably bipartisan at a time when few issues united America's political parties. The senator didn't mince words. The crown prince was in his 30s and not even officially in charge of Saudi Arabia yet, but he already had quite the rap sheet. He'd pursued a disastrous war in Yemen, briefly abducted the prime minister of Lebanon and imprisoned a bunch of his fellow royals and elites in a hotel shakedown . Then, there was Khashoggi. Democrats and Republicans were worried about the path the prince had chosen. "He's gonna be around for 50 years," the senator said. "We need to know if he's another Saddam." President Joe Biden heads to Saudi Arabia this week, where he will meet Saudi King Salman and his son, the de facto ruler of the kingdom. It's part of a Middle East swing that will first take Biden to Israel and the West Bank. Hello, everyone! This is Nahal Toosi, senior foreign affairs correspondent at POLITICO, filling in for the dazzling Ryan Heath while he enjoys a break. It's been a while. Did you miss me? I've been asking critics and defenders of the Saudi crown prince, known as MBS, their take on his mindset. Has MBS learned lessons from the intense Western backlash over the Khashoggi killing? Is he truly an economic and social reformer who can shake up his country's establishment in a beneficial way? Or is he still hasty and prone to overreach? (Others prefer words like "psychopath.") To put it another way: Is he someone other world leaders can trust? Here are a few takeaways from the conversations: — Few people want to engage in psychiatric evaluations of MBS, but there is a sense that his limited exposure to the world outside Saudi Arabia hobbles his judgment. While many Middle Eastern elites get a significant amount of schooling in the United States, Britain or other Western countries, MBS stayed in Saudi Arabia, including for university. Some analysts say this makes him less attuned to Western ways of thinking. Now, to be clear, getting a Western education is no guarantee of good decision-making, but it can help a foreign leader have a better sense of how people in the United States or elsewhere will react in various situations. In the days after Khashoggi's murder, which Saudi Arabia initially denied, MBS reportedly couldn't understand the criticism. Why the outrage, he's reported to have asked Trump administration officials. Not only did MBS remain largely in Saudi Arabia, he also was a wealthy royal surrounded by yes-men. "He was raised in a world with no consequences," a former U.S. official familiar with the Middle East said. "As a kid, you could probably murder one of your household help, and it wouldn't be a problem." — But his upbringing also suggests that he is more aware of what his people, especially Saudi youth, want from their lives — a sensitivity that is translating into wins in the fight against religious extremism. When it comes to running the government, MBS is dictator-minded. Ask the many political activists languishing in Saudi prisons, if you can reach them. But socially and culturally, he's a breath of fresh air for Saudi youth as well as a world desperate to end the Saudi export of Islamist extremism. Thanks to reforms MBS has pushed through, Saudis have more freedom now, including women being permitted to drive. The once-feared religious police have been marginalized. The kingdom also is continuing its crackdown on funders of extremist mosques and schools overseas, and MBS is championing positive economic changes. "He is focused on enabling Saudis to enjoy themselves at home and making the kingdom a destination for foreign tourists," said a former U.S. official who maintains close contact with senior Saudis. "Riyadh is now the entertainment capital of the Middle East." The young prince "has taken on so many pillars of the establishment in Saudi Arabia it demonstrated they were not nearly as inviolate as people had assumed," added Jon Alterman, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "It suggests he understands the society in which he's operating." — It's probably too late to shape his personality, but MBS appears to be more respectful of process now, and that bodes well for future-decision making. The prince has denied ordering Khashoggi's killing, but he's taken responsibility for it because it happened on his watch. In recent years, he's greenlit efforts to wind down the war in Yemen, repair a diplomatic rift with Qatar and release some political prisoners. He remains an impatient man, but he's come to value the need for thoroughly weighing the decisions he faces. "His decision making relies heavily on ministers and staff who understand that they must do their homework on any proposal that touches his desk. Projects unroll more slowly, but they are usually well organized," the former U.S. official with close Saudi ties said. While a few years ago, most of what I heard from officials and analysts was a deep aversion to engaging the crown prince, today I'm more likely to hear from that same crowd that even if the United States cannot shape his personality, it has to at least try to influence his decisions, and that sometimes requires a U.S. president to meet with him.   INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED:  Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.     THE WATCHLIST: There's a new variant in town: The BA.5 Omicron subvariant is the latest version of Covid-19 to make its presence felt. A new wave of infections is expected in the fall . The Biden administration, meanwhile, is reportedly looking at ways to get second booster shots for adults. We are nowhere near done with this virus. AMLO at the White House: Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador skipped the Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles last month. But he showed up at the White House on Tuesday, boasting to Biden that gas prices are cheaper in his country. Biden responded that the U.S. has the world's fastest growing major economy. The Mexican-U.S. partnership remains strong, Biden added. Iran wades into a war: Iran is set for a role in the Russia-Ukraine war. The Biden team revealed this week that Iran plans to deliver hundreds of drones to Russia, while the Kremlin said Russian leader Vladimir Putin will visit Iran next week . A U.S. official told your host that the fact that Russia is turning to Iran for drones shows how economically isolated it has become. The U.S. decision to reveal the intelligence on the drone transfer could make Arab countries wary of Iran more cautious about dealing with Russia; it could also make European nations even more wary of Iran, the official said. On the run: Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has fled the country in the face of protests sparked by an economic crisis that has led to fuel and food shortages. Rajapaksa is reported to have gone to the Maldives and planning to resign. He named the Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe as the acting president. But protesters have already breached the prime minister's office compound and want him out, too. INTERVIEW CORNER Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently named Richard Nephew, an Iran and sanctions expert, as "coordinator on global anti-corruption." Your host caught up with the new appointee for a quick Q&A (and yes, he's already heard all the "rich nephew" jokes). Here's the exchange, edited for clarity and brevity: Why is this role necessary? Well, I think the secretary, in outlining the decision to have the position, made clear that it was his intention, in keeping with the national strategy [on countering corruption] , to try and do two things. One, try and have a more integrated approach to anti-corruption work, because there's a ton that's being done across both the State Department and then, of course, in the interagency, but also to try to put extra effort in implementing that strategy. And so I think the idea was to have somebody whose singular focus is trying to make sure that the building is stitched up and that the strategy is front and center. What's your top goal? I'm still engaged in the consultative process with other parts of the department to get a sense of priorities, get a sense of what's already been done, where I can best add value and places where folks have already got stuff very well in hand. The No. 1 goal, of course, is to advance the strategy. The strategy was a well thought-out, well-designed articulation of what our priorities are, both for at home and abroad. What is the most important part of that strategy? What I think is going to be a primary focus of the work that we're going to do here is the affirmation that this is a global problem. This is not something that the U.S. has fixed perfectly, this isn't something that we have got 100 percent right, either. A lot of what we're going to be doing is talking to other governments about how they might be able to improve on their anti-corruption efforts, but of course it's going to be on the basis of we also are improving on our corruption efforts. So I think the strategy's most important element is the fact that this is something that starts at home, continues abroad, and it just has to be a continued effort to work. The Biden administration has sanctions, tough rhetoric and visa bans to go after corrupt foreigners. What other tools are there? There's a ton. … For obvious reasons, there tends to be a lot of focus on [sanctions] designations. … But there's a ton of work that's been done to improve the ability of governments to police corruption issues at home, a ton of training work that's being done and assistance work that goes into making private sector and government interactions less prone to corruption, and to work with governments to have legislation in place that deals with corruption issues. So, on top of all the more punitive measures, there's a lot of work that's going on in the training, assistance and development side. And it's that kind of work which I think, frankly, doesn't get enough attention. President Biden, like many presidents before him has named a number of campaign donors to ambassadorships. Is that a corrupt practice? I think that those are the kinds of questions that I'm not going to answer here. My point is, why are we lecturing other countries when there's plenty of practices in the American political system that can be viewed as corrupt? How are you going to do your job when people will just use "whataboutism" and point to things that are happening here? The "whataboutism" problem is the sort of problem that you're always going to have. … My mental pathway on this is not to enter in with the idea that we've got everything all sorted out. There's a lot of work that Congress is doing — I look forward to talking with them as well — to try and strengthen our anti-corruption platforms and our anti-corruption practices, our anti-corruption legislation. And I think that's the point of departure when we talk to other governments. It's not to say that we've got it all figured out, but it's to be able to say, in fact, actually there are things all over the place that need to be dealt with, and that's what we intend to work on together. GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS A billion here, a billion there: The world's population is set to reach 8 billion by mid-November, the United Nations projects. Remotely happy: What countries are the most ideal for remote work? Nordlayer, the global VPN platform, has just published an index that aims to answer that question. All aTwitter: Wired reports that Twitter employees feel upset and out of the loop about the Elon Musk deal gone awry: "The entire company is running on autopilot."   Congressional Vision for Tech Across America – July 21 Event : How can innovation play a role in America's global economic leadership? On July 21, Rep, Gerry Connolly (D-VA), Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), Rep. Trey Hollingsworth (R-IN), Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) are sharing Congress' vision for the future of policy and technology surrounding workforce and education at MeriTalk's MerITocracy 2022: American Innovation Forum. The forum will feature Hill and White House leadership and industry visionaries as they dig into the need for tangible outcomes and practical operational plans. Save your seat here.     BRAIN FOOD Short read: The New York Times' "Interpreter" assures us that the world is not falling apart, no matter how it feels. Medium read: The Atlantic reports on how the author of the bestselling novel "Where the Crawdads Sing" is wanted for questioning in a murder case. Long listen: 99% Invisible is a podcast series about design and how it shapes our world, even when we don't realize it. ONE FUN THING Take a few minutes and revel in these newly released photos from the James Webb Space Telescope. These are pictures that are worth far more than 1,000 words. With a hearty thanks to editors John Yearwood and Ben Pauker.   Follow us on Twitter Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan   Follow us

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