The Manchin show: What's in, what's out?

Your guide to the political forces shaping the energy transformation

Jul 07, 2022 View in browser   By Arianna Skibell Illustration by Claudine Hellmuth/E&E News This time might be for real: Democratic lawmakers are scrambling to reach an agreement to push their ambitious spending bill over the finish line before the August recess, after more than a year of trying to corral West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin's crucial swing vote. But a deal would probably leave more energy and climate provisions behind. Chief among them is a generous tax credit for electric vehicles that it turns out Americans were pretty excited about. A George Washington University study out this week found that potential EV buyers favor an up-front rebate as opposed to time-delayed tax credits that tend to favor wealthier buyers. The current EV incentive scheme offers up to a $7,500 discount but only through a tax refund that comes the following April, and an increasing number of automakers are maxing out the credit. President Joe Biden's original spending bill would have provided up to $12,500 in incentives for electric vehicles made by unionized workers, paid upfront — a non-starter for Manchin. Democratic lawmakers have faced criticism for offering EVs as a solution for high gasoline prices. (Have you seen the " Let them buy Teslas" meme?) But a national Consumer Reports survey out today found that 71 percent of U.S. drivers are at least somewhat interested in buying or leasing an electric car. And 53 percent said tax rebates or point-of-purchase discounts would encourage them to take the plunge. Where the talks stand: While Senate negotiators are keeping quiet on what provisions could make the final cut, Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) recently told POLITICO's E&E News reporter Nick Sobczyk some form of a methane fee is still in play. The talks, which are expected to dominate July, are down to a few open items. A number of renewable energy tax credits could also squeak by, but Manchin has said he opposes the "direct-pay" option that would allow developers to collect incentives upfront. The overall package of climate-focused and clean energy spending could hover around $300 billion, which pales in comparison to the $555 billion measure the House passed last year. Still, Tiernan Sittenfeld, senior vice president of government affairs with the League of Conservation Voters, said she's optimistic the Senate will advance a significant clean energy and climate measure. "We are feeling encouraged and obviously more determined than ever," she said. But it's unclear whether the surviving provisions will be enough to make a measurable dent in curbing planet-warming pollutants or in preserving Democrat's razor-thin majority in the House and Senate. About 4 in 10 registered voters say a candidate's position on global warming will be a "very important" factor in determining who they vote for in the 2022 congressional elections, according to a new report from the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.   It's Thursday — thank you for tuning into POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Arianna Skibell. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind  E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to askibell@eenews.net. Trends A new interactive map created by the Climate Solutions Lab in Brown University's Watson Institute allows users to see what significant investments in clean energy would mean by ZIP code. The map's creator, postdoctoral research associate Alexander Gard-Murray, said in a statement he hopes the map can serve as a tool to shift the doom-and-gloom tone of the national climate conversation. Power Centers A perilous age for energy The North American grid has long been described as one of the most complex machines on Earth. And as the energy sector becomes more connected, cyber risks that cut across the global supply chain are becoming a greater threat, writes Christian Vasquez. The electric grid includes interconnection points that help protect against countrywide outages. But use of common digital technology across the larger grid has propped open the door to digital sabotage. Read the story here. Resource disputes EPA rebuked the Tennessee Valley Authority, saying it should not replace its largest coal plant with a natural gas one because there are cheaper and cleaner options, writes Kristi E. Swartz. The tussle marks the latest in a tug of war between the federal government and TVA over carbon-reduction efforts. Read the story here. At least he has climate? UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson today resigned amid scandal. But perhaps if the world gets its act together on climate change, he will get a hat tip for locking Britain into its net-zero emissions path, writes Ryan Heath. In making his climate pledges, Johnson overrode his conservative base. He will not be remembered as kindly for his bungled initial Covid-19 response — which almost cost him his life. Here's the story. Question Corner A concentrated solar power facility. | Department of Energy Taimur from Hartsdale, N.Y., asks why concentrated solar isn't more popular. Concentrated solar power generates electricity using mirrors to reflect, concentrate and focus sunlight. "[W]hich to me seems like a no-brainer in parts of the world with high solar irradiation, providing grid-scale base load energy that can be cheaper than oil, diesel and even natural gas," Taimur says. We've got answers! To answer Taimur's question, we checked in with energy technology expert Ryan Katofsky at Advanced Energy Economy. Ryan says that flat photovoltaic panels got so cheap, it basically killed CSP, even with their added benefit of build-in storage. CSP also only works well in direct sunlight and high insolation, like in the desert. PV panels can go anywhere and even work on cloudy days. "It's too bad; the lapsed engineer in me finds CSP pretty nifty," he added.   Want to know more? Send me your questions with "Question Corner" in the subject line. The science, policy and politics driving the energy transition can feel miles away. But we're all affected on an individual and communal level — from hotter days and higher gas prices to home insurance rates and food supply. In Other News Prius power: New York is deploying an army of Toyota Priuses-turned-mobile-air-monitors into overburdened communities to collect data on greenhouse gas emissions. Today in the POLITICO Energy podcast: Sean Reilly explains the challenges of the cumulative impact approach — the "holy grail" of environmental justice — that the Biden administration is trying to implement to help heavily polluted communities. Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul. | Yuki Iwamura/AP Photo New York's powerful unions are growing their influence over climate policy as a way to stave off job losses from the fossil fuel industry. The conservative Heritage Foundation is hiring a fellow with experience on "climate uncertainty," marking an expansion of its opposition to reducing emissions. The world's reserves of extractable oil shrank by almost 9 percent in 2021 and "could deal a major blow to energy security," a new report finds. That's it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.   Follow us on Twitter Arianna Skibell @ariannaskibell   Follow us

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