U.S. ambassadors to Blinken: Send the weapons

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Jul 05, 2022 View in browser   By Alexander Ward, Nahal Toosi and Quint Forgey Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks on China at Jack Morton Auditorium of George Washington University May 26, 2022 in Washington, D.C. | Alex Wong/Getty Images With help from Christopher Miller and Connor O'Brien Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint There's a debate roiling inside the Biden administration: Delay or decline weapons sales to countries with poor human rights records, or sell anyway lest Russia and China fill the void? Some version of this argument has long played out in Washington, D.C., no matter who's in office. But the conversation was turbo-charged after multiple U.S. ambassadors, many working in embassies in the Middle East, sent a cable to Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN earlier this year calling for a faster transfer process. NatSec Daily wasn't able to see the cable, but it was described to us by four people familiar with its contents who would only speak on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. The cable's authors took shots at the entire system of foreign military sales and assistance, saying the procedures had become too complicated and too slow, sparking frustration among U.S. partners in the Gulf and other regions. If the U.S. didn't streamline the plodding process — which involves Congress and multiple agencies — then even its friends would turn to its adversaries with fewer scruples. Ambassadors (and generals) make such complaints often. They're the ones who interact with foreign governments day in and day out, so they get an earful when something as big as an expected arms sale doesn't get approved back in America's capital. "Every embassy would like the transfer to their country to move faster," a U.S. official said. But some of the transfer issues are outside an ambassador's control. Watching weapons quickly delivered to Ukraine makes it hard for the diplomat to say the process is slow, and supply chain woes aren't helping with often-sluggish production schedules. The Biden administration seems particularly gripped with this punish-or-sell issue, especially since the State Department made such a big deal about claiming to put human rights at the center of its foreign policy. "The debate is, do we curtail the arms sales because we think it's leverage on human rights, and we should divest ourselves of the centrality of these relationships?" a second U.S. official said, "or do we get over it and sell, sell, sell to advance other security and policy interests?" That argument spilled out into the open last December, when the United Arab Emirates suspended talks on a $23 billion purchase of 50 F-35s, 18 advanced drones and air-to-air munitions. The U.S. doesn't want to see its weapons used more prominently in places like Yemen, and the administration also has concerns about the UAE's increasingly friendly ties with China. A Huawei-controlled phone network in the country, for example, raises fears that Beijing could collect intelligence on the warplane and its operators. Despite those concerns, there's a contingent inside the White House, State and the Pentagon that says those billions of dollars would boost America's economy and forge a stronger U.S.-UAE bond — thus countering China. But the issue is broader than the protracted UAE arms sale; congressional members and staffers also are increasingly willing to delay White House-backed arms sales because the recipient nation has a poor human rights record. Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, still opposes the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey because of President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN's turn toward autocracy. The second U.S. official also complained that some of the Hill aides who opposed controversial sales are now deputy assistants either at State or the Defense Department, thus slowing down the gears of government on a transfer decision. A third U.S. official said that the ambassadors' cable did have an impact: There is some effort inside the administration to see if there are ways to make the process more efficient. But that effort is so nascent that it's not worthy of being called a "review" yet. Asked for comment, the White House directed us to State. A State spokesperson said, "as a general matter, we do not comment on internal deliberations." The Inbox SWEDEN AND FINLAND ACCESSIONS ADVANCED: NATO members signed the Accessions Protocols today to bring Finland and Sweden into the alliance. "This is truly an historic moment. For Finland, for Sweden, for NATO, and for our shared security," said NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG. "With 32 nations around the table, we will be even stronger and our people will be even safer, as we face the biggest security crisis in decades." Turkey backed off its threats to block both nations from becoming the newest NATO members, paving the way for allied capitals to ratify their accession. Canada was the first country to officially approve of the (likely) future members. Denmark, Iceland and Norway have already said they're ready to ratify Sweden and Finland's membership, while the Dutch Cabinet has convened a special meeting for the same purpose. WILLIAM ALBERQUE has a great Twitter thread on what's in the Accession Protocols and what to expect from the U.S. process. (h/t Breaking Defense's AARON MEHTA) RUSSIA'S GAINS COULD LIMIT ADVANCE: Russia's capture of the eastern Ukrainian province of Luhansk — its greatest prize in four months of war and first seizure of an entire Ukrainian province since its invasion and forced annexation of Crimea in 2014 — could imperil a future advance elsewhere in the invaded country. "Even President VLADIMIR PUTIN acknowledged Monday that Russian troops involved in action in Luhansk need to 'take some rest and beef up their combat capability,'" the Associated Press reported. "That raises doubts about whether Moscow's forces and their separatist allies are ready to quickly thrust deeper into Donetsk, the other province that makes up the Donbas. Observers estimated in recent weeks that Russia controlled about half of Donetsk, and battle lines have changed little since then." "What happens in the Donbas could determine the course of the war. If Russia succeeds there, it could free up its forces to grab even more land and dictate the terms of any peace agreement. If Ukraine, on the other hand, manages to pin the Russians down for a protracted period, it could build up the resources for a counteroffensive," the AP continued. Ukraine's strategy is basically to wear down the Russians wherever they can. The question seems to be just how worn down the troops are after intense fighting in Ukraine's east. Our own CHRISTOPHER MILLER spoke Monday evening with a Ukrainian officer who's been fighting on the frontline in the Donbas since 2014. He said the fighting has grown more intense by the day since Russia refocused its efforts there in April. But the past three weeks in particular, he said, have been "hell." Russian aircraft hit his unit's positions southwest of Lysychansk daily while heavy artillery pounds them "24/7," he said. The Ukrainians managed to shoot down a Ka-52 military helicopter with a Soviet-era Igla shoulder-fired weapon system. But a serious lack of anti-aircraft weapons, he said, means the Ukrainians haven't been able to stop Russian attacks from the air. While Western artillery has poured into Ukraine in recent weeks, his unit hasn't seen much, if any of it. They have a handful of Javelin and NLAW anti-tank weapons, he said. But they are relying almost completely on the country's Soviet-era arms and ammunitions stocks that are being quickly depleted. The officer said that has forced his unit to retreat three times to positions that had been in their rear as the Russians pushed ahead with tanks and other artillery three times, capturing more Ukrainian territory each time. The officer spoke to POLITICO from a hospital bed where he is recovering after being wounded last week by a Russian 82mm mortar strike. Two pieces of shrapnel remain stuck in his back; another soldier was struck in the head and is in serious condition. The officer said Ukrainian forces are suffering huge casualties on the front. President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY has said that some 100 troops are being killed daily in the east. The officer said that of the 60 soldiers he had three weeks ago, 40 have been killed or wounded, and just 20 remain in the company. The officer said he is very worried that the Donetsk region could fall to Russia like Luhansk did if more weapons and ammunition — particularly heavier, long-range weapons systems from the US. and European countries — don't arrive immediately. "We need more, more, more," he said. Taking such heavy losses and also losing more territory to the enemy has seem morale among the Ukrainian troops drop, the officer said. And the heavy fighting is taking a toll even on those who don't get physically injured. His company has been at the frontline in the Donbas since well before Russia invaded on Feb. 24 and unable to get any rest. "Only the wounded get a break," he said. GRINER'S WIFE SAYS ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS 'ARE NOT DOING ANYTHING': The wife of BRITTNEY GRINER said today that President JOE BIDEN hasn't responded to the handwritten letter that the basketball star sent to him Monday from detention in Russia, Quint reports. CHERELLE GRINER told CBS in an interview: "I still have not heard from him. And honestly, it's very disheartening." Representatives for Brittney Griner on Monday shared excerpts of her letter to Biden, in which she personally pleaded with him to do more to help secure her return to the U.S. "I realize you are dealing with so much, but please don't forget about me and the other American Detainees. Please do all you can to bring us home," she wrote. Her trial on cannabis possession charges began Friday and is scheduled to resume Thursday. Asked to comment on Cherelle Griner's remarks today, the White House shared a statement from National Security Council spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON, who said the Biden administration "continues to work aggressively — using every available means — to bring [Brittney Griner] home." National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN "have spoken several times with Brittney's wife recently," Watson said, and the White House "is closely coordinating" with ROGER CARSTENS, the special presidential envoy for hostage affairs. Carstens "has met with Brittney's family, her teammates, and her support network," Watson said. Despite that outreach, Cherelle Griner criticized the administration's efforts to negotiate her wife's release: "Initially, I was told … 'We're going to try and handle this behind [the] scenes.' And, 'Let's not raise her value.' And, 'Stay quiet.' And I did that. And respectfully, we're over 140 days at this point. That does not work. And so I will not be quiet anymore. I will find that balance of harm versus help in pushing our government to do everything that's possible. Because being quiet, they are not moving. They are not doing anything." IT'S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @ChristopherJM, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1 — plus our summer interns, @Lawrence_Ukenye and @nicolle_liu. A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today. Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.   Flashpoints ISRAELI FIRE LIKELY KILLED JOURNALIST: After summarizing the separate investigations by the Israel Defense Forces and the Palestinian Authority, U.S. officials have assessed that "gunfire from IDF positions was likely responsible" for the death of Palestinian-American Al Jazeera reporter SHIREEN ABU AKLEH in May, State Department spokesperson NED PRICE said in a statement Monday. The U.S. security coordinator "found no reason to believe that this was intentional," Price continued, "but rather the result of tragic circumstances during an IDF-led military operation against factions of Palestinian Islamic Jihad on May 11, 2022, in Jenin, which followed a series of terrorist attacks in Israel." Price also reported that although independent, third-party examiners overseen by the USSC conducted "an extremely detailed forensic analysis," they "could not reach a definitive conclusion regarding the origin of the bullet" that killed Abu Akleh. "Ballistic experts determined the bullet was badly damaged, which prevented a clear conclusion," Price said. Palestine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates criticized the U.S. assessment, tweeting Monday: "The State of Palestine rejects the United States' dismissal of the Israeli occupying forces' intentional targeting of and killing of Shireen Abu Akleh, as mere 'tragic circumstances' and not an intentional war crime." Biden is scheduled to visit Israel and the West Bank next week as part of his Middle East trip. Keystrokes DOJ'S RANSOMWARE REPORTING GOAL: Our friends over at Weekly Cybersecurity reported that the Justice Department has a new goal of "ensuring that at least two-thirds of all ransomware attacks in the U.S. are reported to law enforcement by September 2023." The Biden administration has made curbing the spread and damage of ransomware attacks a priority, but has so far struggled to get a handle on the problem. "CISA and DOJ launched the StopRansomware.gov program nearly a year ago to encourage more businesses to report ransomware attacks to the federal government, but it's unclear how effective the initiative has been so far. CISA's forthcoming program requiring critical infrastructure operators to report significant cyber incidents within 72 hours, and ransomware payments within 24 hours, will also help a bit with this problem — but it's not a total solution. Not all companies will need to follow these rules, and CISA still has a few years left to stand up the program," our own SAM SABIN wrote in the newsletter. The Complex PENTAGON EMBRACES BALLOONS: Per our own LEE HUDSON , the Pentagon is working on a new plan to rise above competition from China and Russia: balloons. The high-altitude inflatables — flying at between 60,000 and 90,000 feet — would be added to the Defense Department's extensive surveillance network and could eventually be used to track hypersonic weapons. Pentagon budget documents signal that the technology is moving from DoD's scientific community to the military services. Over the past two years, the Pentagon has spent about $3.8 million on balloon projects, and it plans to spend $27.1 million in fiscal year 2023 to continue work on multiple efforts, according to the documents. And as the Pentagon keeps working on its own hypersonic weapons program, balloons may help the U.S. track and deter hypersonic weapons being developed by China and Russia. The teardrop-shaped balloons, which harvest complex data and navigate using AI algorithms, could augment expensive satellites in tracking the missiles. On the Hill NDAA AMENDMENTS ROLL IN: The deadline for lawmakers to submit amendments ahead of next week's floor debate on the National Defense Authorization Act came and went this afternoon, and there's no shortage of proposals, our own CONNOR O'BRIEN wrote in. So far, 360 amendments have been submitted to the House Rules Committee, per the panel's website. Expect that number to grow as offices get their amendments under the wire. Not every amendment is guaranteed a vote. Rules will meet next week to decide which ones make the cut. Here are a few highlights so far: Budget cut: Progressive Reps. BARBARA LEE (D-Calif.) and MARK POCAN (D-Wis.) have an amendment to reverse the $37 billion increase to the bill's price tag adopted last month by the House Armed Services Committee. The proposal would essentially back Biden's Pentagon budget request. The pair also have a measure to set the Pentagon topline at $100 billion less than the current year's level. Similar proposals to freeze or cut DoD spending have been rejected by the House in past years. War powers: Several lawmakers have submitted proposals to rein in executive war powers. Lee has a proposal to repeal the 2002 Iraq War authorization. Rep. ABIGAIL SPANBERGER (D-Va.) has submitted an amendment to repeal the 1991 authorization that preceded the Gulf War. The House has previously voted to rescind both outdated war powers. A third proposal from Rep. PAUL GOSAR (R-Ariz.) would repeal the 2001 and 2002 war authorizations. D.C. Guard: Del. ELEANOR HOLMES NORTON (D-D.C.) and Rep. ANTHONY BROWN (D-Md.) have an amendment to give the mayor of Washington, D.C. control over the District's National Guard. The proposal is being revived after it was defeated during committee markup last month. SAFE Banking: Rep. ED PERLMUTTER filed his bill to legalize cannabis banking as an amendment to the NDAA. The proposal was attached to the NDAA last year but ultimately killed by opposition in the Senate. Our colleague NATALIE FERTIG notes (for Pros!) that this could be the seventh time the House has passed the legislation since 2019. SASC CHAIR: MULTIPLE ROCKET LAUNCHERS CRUCIAL FOR UKRAINE: Senate Armed Services Committee Chair JACK REED (D-R.I.) said the multiple-rocket launchers the U.S. is sending to Ukraine have proven effective to Kyiv's cause. "With those more precision and longer-range weapon systems, and with their intelligence, they can start targeting command-and-control centers and logistical hubs," he told The New York Times' ERIC SCHMITT today, adding the strikes "could be decisive in terms of stopping the Russian assault and maybe even regaining momentum." "Only four of the most advanced launchers, called High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, and their U.S.-trained crews are in the fight, though four more are expected this month. Ukrainian officials say they need as many as 300 multiple-rocket launchers to combat Russia," Schmitt reported. "The Pentagon says that four more HIMARS should be in Ukraine by mid-July. The first group of 60 Ukrainian soldiers trained to use them are now firing the guided rockets in battle, and a second group is undergoing training in Germany. Britain and Germany have each pledged three similar multiple-rocket launchers." THE ART OF THE CODEL: Our own ANDREW DESIDERIO is out with a new story explaining why overseas congressional delegations are a "secret weapon" in a gridlocked Washington: For more than a half-century, the visits intended to reassure international allies have also helped U.S. lawmakers foster human connections that can shape future policy — even on issues unrelated to foreign affairs. Take, for example, the once-in-a-generation gun safety bill that Biden signed into law last month. Work on that measure by Sens. THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.) and CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) began back in April, on a CODEL to the Western Balkans. Away from the Capitol's partisan culture, the two senators built a relationship that proved pivotal to the deal's success. On CODELs, "we're working 12- and 14-hour days, we're sometimes traveling two or three hours from country to country," Tillis said. "And that just gets you into a position where … you build that trust and you build that familiarity, [and] that serves as a basis for getting accomplished what we did." Desiderio notes that lawmakers who join CODELS — usually the Senate's less partisan members — "spend tenfold the amount of time together than they do on the Hill each week while running between committees, staff meetings and votes. The rigid, often scripted nature of their typical day-to-day essentially disappears, allowing CODELs to function as a counterweight to domestic polarization." Broadsides HELLENIC ISSUES CAUCUS RAILS AGAINST F-16 TO TURKEY: Six House Democrats of the Hellenic Issues Caucus said they would oppose the Biden-backed sale of F-16 warplanes to Turkey unless some of their concerns were addressed. "Over the last decade, Turkey has not been a productive member of NATO nor a reliable ally to the U.S.," said the lawmakers, led by Rep. DINA TITUS (D-Nev.), who serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. "Since the beginning of 2022 Turkey has violated the airspace of fellow NATO ally Greece over 2,377 times, including 120 overflights over Greek territory," which leads the caucus members to suspect an F-16 might be used in the future to enter Greek airspace. The House members — who also include Reps. CHRIS PAPPAS (D-N.H.), CHARLIE CRIST (D-Fla.), CAROLYN MALONEY (D-N.Y.), FRANK PALLONE (D-N.J.) and JOHN SARBANES (D-Md.) — also don't want the F-16 used in Syria during a renewed Turkish offensive, and wonder if there are risks to co-locating the planes alongside the Russian-made S-400 missile system. "Until the Administration can provide suitable answers on how they intended to mitigate the above-listed concerns, we will continue to object to this weapons transfer and do everything we can to ensure that these F-16s are not delivered to the Turkish government," they said in a joint statement.     Transitions — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: ANDREW SCOTT has left the White House where he was special assistant to the president and senior director for cyber policy at the NSC focused on the defense/domestic side of the portfolio, two people familiar with the matter told our own DANIEL LIPPMAN and ERIC GELLER. He is headed to the Central Intelligence Agency. — RICHARD NEPHEW has been named coordinator on global anti-corruption at the State Department. He most recently was a senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. He previously served as deputy special envoy for Iran, principal deputy coordinator for sanctions policy at the State Department, and director for Iran on the National Security Staff. — AMY LIU will be the interim president of the Brookings Institution, beginning on July 7. Liu is currently the think tank's vice president and director of the Brookings Metro program. — ELIZABETH DENT has been promoted to Gulf director at the Department of Defense. She was previously the D-ISIS coalition team lead. What to Read — CARA ANNA and OMAR FARUK, The Associated Press: "Ukraine's Shadow: Deadly Crises Like Somalia Starved of Aid" — NATALIE KITROEFF and MARIA ABI-HABIB, The New York Times: "Has Biden's Top Diplomat in Mexico Gone Too Far, Officials Ask?" — LOUISA LOVELUCK and MUSTAFA SALIM , The Washington Post: "After Years in ISIS Prison Camp, They Now Face an Uncertain Welcome Home" Tomorrow Today — Blinken travels to Bali, Indonesia, to attend the G-20 Foreign Ministers' Meeting. — The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 5:30 a.m.: " IISS Special Lecture: Australia, ASEAN and Southeast Asia — with JAMES CRABTREE and PENNY WONG" — The United States Institute of Peace, 10 a.m.: " Justice and Accountability for Khmer Rouge Atrocities — with ELIZABETH BECKER, SUSANA SÁCOUTO, LY SOK-KHEANG and ANDREW WELLS-DANG" — The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: "Preparations and Challenges Ahead of Brazil's 2022 Presidential Election — with LUIZ EDSON FACHIN and NICHOLAS ZIMMERMAN" — The Royal United Services Institute, 11 a.m.: "Reflections on NATO's Madrid Summit — with ADRIAN BRADSHAW and MARIOT LESLIE" — The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: " Active Denial: A Roadmap to a More Effective, Stabilizing, and Sustainable U.S. Defense Strategy in Asia — with ERIC HEGINBOTHAM, MIKE MOCHIZUKI, RACHEL ESPLIN ODELL and MICHAEL D. SWAINE" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, who thinks it's funny that State's new anti-corruption czar is named "Rich Nephew" (h/t Hayes Brown and Nephew himself who clearly has a sense of humor) A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today. Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward Quint Forgey @QuintForgey   Follow us

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