Western fighter jets heading to Ukraine?

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Jul 20, 2022 View in browser   By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey With help from Maggie Miller and Phelim Kine Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint Gen. C.Q. Brown, chief of staff of the Air Force, testifies before a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing to review the Air Force's Defense Authorization Request for fiscal year 2023, Tuesday, May 3, 2022, on Capitol Hill in Washington. | Patrick Semansky/AP Photo Your friendly neighborhood NatSec Daily team is in Colorado for the first full day of the Aspen Security Forum. We've already got three big takeaways: The Air Force chief of staff hinted that Western-supplied warplanes could be heading to Ukraine, the deputy Treasury secretary has a two-step plan to lower Russia's energy revenues, and the head of U.S. Southern Command is worried about China's potential military influence in the Panama Canal. TOP AIR FORCE GENERAL OPENS DOOR TO FIGHTER JETS TO UKRAINE: Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. C.Q. BROWN hinted that the U.S. or one one of its allies may soon send fighter jets to Ukraine. "There's U.S. [fighter jets], there's Gripen out of Sweden, there's the Eurofighter or the Rafale. So there's a number of different platforms that could go to Ukraine," he said, answering NBC News' COURTNEY KUBE 's question. The Ukrainians are unlikely to get MiGs, he continued, because it'll be hard to get parts from Russia. "It'll be something non-Russian, I could probably tell you that. What I can't do is tell you what it's going to be," he concluded. Ever since the Biden administration first came out against calls for European nations to send MiGs to Ukraine, the question of "should the West send fighter jets?" has roiled NATO. Brown's comment implies that a conversation to actually send warplanes is underway –– but what it'll be and when it'll happen is still unclear. PUTIN'S 'DESPERATION': Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN 's trip to Iran shows his "desperation" for global support after the West isolated his country following the invasion of Ukraine, Deputy Treasury Secretary WALLY ADEYEMO told NatSec Daily on the sideline of the conference. "It's interesting that you see President Putin going there. It demonstrates to all of us a bit of the desperation of the Russian regime. They are unable to build things themselves, so now they need to go to a country that also has a dilapidated economy and can build very few things themselves," he said. "Ultimately, I think it's a sign of the weakness of where they stand rather than their strength that one of his first trips is to a country like that." Asked about how the U.S. plans to maintain the sanctions pressure on Russia, the Treasury No. 2 laid out a two-point plan. First, the U.S. needs to put more oil into the market. More oil equals lower prices for oil, Adeyemo said, which will lower Moscow's revenues. Second, Western companies monopolize the insurance market for ships that carry oil. If Russia wants to put its energy on vessels, then it'll need to sell oil at a lower price to get the insurance from those Western firms. "That is a way to reduce their revenue," Adeyemo said. Furthermore, the deputy secretary said the U.S. has seen "limited evidence" that the private sectors in China and other countries want to work with Russian entities that are sanctioned. "What we found is that most large companies, either state-run or the private sector not only in China, but in any other country, don't want to be on the wrong side of our sanctions for the simple reason of the business they do with Russia is really small because Russia is a small economy," he said. SOUTHCOM FEARS FUTURE CHINESE MILITARY ACTIVITY IN PANAMA CANAL: Gen. LAURA RICHARDSON , chief of U.S. Southern Command, is worried that Chinese entities at the Panama Canal could eventually be transferred over to the authority of the People's Liberation Army. "I was just in Panama about a month ago and flying along the Panama Canal and looking at all the state-owned enterprises from the [People's Republic of China] on each side of the Panama Canal," she said at the forum. "They look like civilian companies or state-owned enterprises that could be used for dual use and could be quickly changed over to a military capability." There's long been concern about China's projects in Panama having a "dual-use" capability , but that was mostly for infrastructure building. In this case, Richardson was directly alleging a potential long-term military plan by Beijing. And Richardson is particularly worried about China's activities in Panama, telling the Senate Armed Services Committee in March that "the PRC has abused commercial agreements at host country ports for military functions." The Inbox FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– BIPARTISAN BILL RECOGNIZES GENOCIDE IN UKRAINE: Russia's atrocities in Ukraine amount to genocide, a large bipartisan group of senators asserts in a new bill introduced today. The resolution, led by Sens. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.) and JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), condemns Russia for committing "acts of genocide" in Ukraine and calls on the U.S. to help stop them. It also recommends that the U.S. support "tribunals and international criminal investigations to hold Russian political leaders and military personnel to account for a war of aggression, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide." Risch, who met with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY in June, has long contended that Russia is perpetrating a genocide. If this resolution passes, the broader Senate would share that assessment. "There is no question that what Russia is doing in Ukraine is a genocide," Risch, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told NatSec Daily. "If you could walk the streets of Kyiv, Irpin and Hostomel like I did last month, and listen to the stories of what the Russian soldiers have done, this is a genocide. The international community is documenting the many Russian abuses that constitute war crimes across Ukraine. It's time the United States and the world recognize it as such." In April, Biden accused Vladimir Putin of committing "genocide" in Ukraine, though the U.S. government has yet to make an official determination. The other Senators who signed on as cosponsors: RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.), ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.), JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), ROB PORTMAN (R-Ohio) and LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.). 4 MORE HIMARS TO UKRAINE: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN , speaking today at the fourth meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, announced that the U.S. will provide four additional High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems to Ukraine as part of a forthcoming package of military assistance, reports Quint and our own LARA SELIGMAN . The U.S. has already sent 12 such rocket launchers to Ukraine since the start of Russia's invasion. This week, the Biden administration will roll out another round of aid, which will mark the 16th drawdown of equipment from the Defense Department's inventory since last August, Austin said. Apart from the four HIMARS, the new military assistance will include "more rounds of [multiple launch rocket system] and artillery ammunition," Austin added. The U.S. most recently shipped rocket launchers to Ukraine as part of a $450 million military assistance package announced last month. ZELENSKA ASKS CONGRESS FOR WEAPONS: The first lady of Ukraine today pleaded with the U.S. Congress to authorize more weapons for Kyiv. "While Russia kills, America saves. And you should know about it. We thank you for that," said OLENA ZELENSKA, who delivered her address in Ukrainian. She denounced "Russia's hunger games, hunting for peaceful people and peaceful cities of Ukraine," our own ANDREW DESIDERIO wrote . After thanking Congress for the tens of billions of dollars in military and humanitarian assistance, Zelenska said more needs to be done. She specifically asked for air defense systems that can intercept Russian missiles that are killing Ukrainian civilians daily, and acknowledged the upcoming August recess that will send lawmakers back to their home states for a critical stretch of the war. "I am asking for weapons — weapons that would not be used to wage a war on somebody else's land, but to protect someone's home and the right to wake up in that home," she said. "Russia is destroying our people." IT'S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey . While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @ChristopherJM , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1 — plus our summer interns, @Lawrence_Ukenye and @nicolle_liu . A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin, helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating digital transformation. At Lockheed Martin digital transformation means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins, industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more.   Flashpoints RUSSIA WIDENS WAR GOALS: Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV, in an interview with state media outlets, said today that Moscow is expanding its military objectives in Ukraine and aims to seize control of entire southern regions of the country, reports POLITICO Europe's WILHELMINE PREUSSEN . Lavrov said Russia's military targets now go beyond the so-called People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, and include areas where Russian forces have already made gains — such as the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and a "number of other territories." Following failed peace talks in Istanbul in March, Russia had said it would scale back its targets to focus on eastern Ukraine. However, the geography of battle has now changed, Lavrov said. He also warned the West that Russia will broaden its objectives even further if NATO allies continue to supply Ukraine with long-range weapons. Keystrokes BEHIND THE CYBER CURVE: The jury is still out on why Russia has not used more cyber operations in its war against Ukraine, but a top White House official said today that one option is that Moscow was not fully prepared to utilize its cyber arsenal, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in.   "That could certainly be one of the possibilities," ANNE NEUBERGER, the White House deputy national security adviser for Cyber and Emerging Technology, said at the Aspen Security Forum when asked if a lack of Russian preparation was behind the low number of successful cyberattacks during the conflict. Neuberger noted that there are a number of other potential reasons, including strong efforts by Ukraine to strengthen the cybersecurity of its critical infrastructure prior to the Russian invasion. She also pointed to the potential success of President Joe Biden's warning to Putin last year about the negative consequences of using cyberattacks against U.S. critical infrastructure. "We don't quite know…but certainly something we're watching very closely," Neuberger said. Neuberger added that the Biden administration has tracked "destructive malware" used by Russia in its war against Ukraine, while Microsoft warned in a report last month that Russian intelligence organizations have increasingly targeted groups in the U.S. and other Ukrainian allied nations since the February invasion. "There is sort of a view that Russia hasn't taken many steps in Ukraine in terms of cyber," MATTHEW OLSEN , the assistant attorney general for National Security at the Justice Department, said during a separate Aspen Security Forum panel. "That is a myth, and we are effectively seeing a hot cyber war in Ukraine carried out by the Russians." RT SKIRTS EU SANCTIONS: Days after the European Union banned Kremlin-backed news outlet RT, more than a hundred websites sprung up to share content from the Russian media organization in various languages, reports our own MARK SCOTT (for Pros!). The sanctions-evasion strategy allowed Russia's prominent state media outlet to reach potentially millions of people across the 27-country bloc in direct violation of EU penalties — raising questions about how effective Brussels' clampdown on Kremlin disinformation has been. In the almost five months since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine — and more than four months since RT was officially banned across Europe — RT has stayed one step ahead of the bloc's sanctions, promoting its newly minted replica websites via its official social media accounts.     The Complex F-35 PROGRAM 'WILL FALL SHORT': The Government Accountability Office's latest report concludes the Pentagon needs a new strategy that updates sustainment costs and modernization plans for F-35 engines, according to our colleagues at Morning Defense (for Pros!). The congressional watchdog found that the Pentagon's current strategy allows 6 percent of the fleet to be unable to perform assigned missions at any given time due to engine issues. That figure is far higher than the 1 percent common for other tactical aircraft. "Until DOD assesses its F-35 sustainment strategy, including its goals, and reaches agreement on any needed changes, the program will fall short of the desired outcomes of users," the GAO report states. On the Hill CONGRESS FAILS TO CONFRONT CHINA: The Senate is poised to abandon months of work on legislation overhauling U.S. policy toward Beijing when, as soon as this week, it approves a drastically slimmed-down bill to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing, reports Desiderio . The measure aims to address the nationwide microchip shortage by spurring domestic production, a pivotal step to depriving China of U.S. dollars. But the failure of the initial vision for the bill has left Democrats and Republicans frustrated at their inability to come together on an enduring strategy to address what they see as the biggest long-term threat to U.S. national security. A frantic push by the Biden administration led lawmakers to suspend negotiations on a more comprehensive China competition bill, instead pursuing the chips funding and a few other non-controversial provisions. That was viewed by proponents of action as the more pragmatic option, given the White House's recent warnings that U.S. companies are on the verge of taking their chip production overseas. Broadsides CHINA SEEKS TO STOP XINJIANG REPORT: China is circulating a letter among diplomatic missions in Geneva, urging foreign envoys to prevent the release of a report by the United Nations' human rights chief on abuses in Xinjiang, reports Reuters' EMMA FARGE . After embarking on a much-criticized trip to China in May, United Nations High Commissioner MICHELLE BACHELET pledged to publish her findings about the western Chinese region, where the U.S. and human rights groups allege violations against Uyghur inhabitants. The letter reportedly authored by China expressed "grave concern" about the U.N.'s forthcoming Xinjiang document, warning that it "will intensify politicisation and bloc confrontation in the area of human rights, undermine the credibility of the OHCHR [Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights], and harm the cooperation between OHCHR and member states." "We strongly urge Madame High Commissioner not to publish such an assessment," the letter adds. A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin, helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating digital transformation. At Lockheed Martin digital transformation means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins, industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more.   Transitions — PRITESH GANDHI will serve as the Department of Homeland Security's chief medical officer in the new Office of Health Security. He will lead the agency's medical, workforce and public health work. What to Read — LORI HINNANT, CARA ANNA, VASILISA STEPANENKO and SARAH EL DEEB, The Associated Press: " 'The mouth of a bear': Ukrainian refugees sent to Russia " — RICHARD C. PADDOCK, The New York Times: " Fighting a Brutal Regime With the Help of a Video Game " — ALASTAIR GALE , The Wall Street Journal: " U.S. Confronts Uncomfortable Reality About North Korea's Nuclear Program " Tomorrow Today — The Jewish Institute for National Security of America, 8:30 a.m.: " Advancing the Abraham Accords Through Regional Air Defense — with JONI ERNST" — The German Marshall Fund of the United States, 9 a.m.: " Breaking Barriers: Women and Politics in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine — with DARINA DVORNICHENKO, DANIEL HEGEDÜS, MAGDA JAKUBOWSKA and VICTORIA ROSA" — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: " Full Committee Hearing: Nominations — with BRYAN FENTON and MICHAEL LANGLEY" — The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: " Religious Freedom in China Under Xi Jinping — with KAYDOR AUKATSANG, ROBERT DESTRO, SOPHIE RICHARDSON, LOBSANG SANGAY, DAVID O. SHULLMAN and NURY TURKEL" — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 10:15 a.m.: " Full Committee Hearing: Nominations — with DAVID PEKOSKE" — The Brookings Institution, 1:30 p.m.: " The Importance of Domestic Renewal Amid Great Power Competition — with JUDE BLANCHETTE, RYAN HASS, DARIN LAHOOD, MICHAEL MAZARR, SUJAI SHIVAKUMAR and TARA WATSON" — Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol, 8 p.m.: " Full Committee Hearing " Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Dave Brown, who says "your writing kills, my editing saves."   Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward Quint Forgey @QuintForgey   Follow us

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