| | | | |  | | By Brakkton Booker | With help from Ella Creamer, Rishika Dugyala and Teresa Wiltz
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POLITICO illustration | What up, Recast family! The Jan. 6 committee holds a hearing focusing on the role extremists played on the day of the Capitol attack and the president is heckled at a South Lawn event touting gun safety achievements. But first, we're focusing on the hottest battleground counties ahead of the 2022 midterms. Following the passage of the Affordable Care Act, then-President Barack Obama described his party's 2010 disastrous election night as a "shellacking." His party lost 63 House seats and six Senate seats. Four years earlier, Republicans lost 30 seats and a half a dozen senators. Then-President George W. Bush said his party took a "thumping" in 2006. By virtually all accounts, President Joe Biden is heading for the same fate. His numbers are plummeting, the latest data point being the New York Times/Sienna College poll showing him sinking to an abysmal 33 percent approval rating. To add insult to injury, that same survey found that nearly two thirds of Democratic voters said they would prefer that someone — anyone — else run for president in 2024. My POLITICO colleague David Siders notes that the progressive group RootsAction.org, is planning a six-figure spending push dubbed the " #DontRunJoe" campaign. There will be plenty of time to dig into that political drama later. Today, we're diving into POLITICO's 2022 Battleground Counties, a project launched today examining the 20 counties likely to determine the midterms. The reporting for the project was conducted by young professionals in the POLITICO Journalism Institute, a training program designed to advance newsroom diversity. Here at The Recast, we're drilling down on four counties to see how race and demographics are impacting these hotly contested races. ORANGE COUNTY, CALIF. Races to watch: California 40th and 45th congressional districts
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Top chart represents all counties in California and how they voted in 2020. | POLITICO illustration | This Southern California county, famous for its entertainment attractions, including Disneyland and one of the more popular "Real Housewives" franchises, was once a reliably conservative bastion of a deep-blue state. But demographic shifts at the turn of the century have made this far more competitive in recent cycles, with Asian and Latino residents accounting for more than half of the county's population. In the 2018 midterms, Democrats swept all the congressional seats that touched Orange County. That grip was loosened a bit when GOP Reps. Young Kim and Michelle Steel, both South Korean immigrants and honorees on The Recast Power List, flipped those seats in 2020. Both have tough reelection fights in the fall. Kim, running in California's 40th, a district that, according to POLITICO's 2022 forecast, Leans Republican. She will face off against Democrat Asif Mahmood in the general election. Steel, running in California's 45th, appears to have a stiffer challenge, as our forecast has it as a Toss Up contest against Democrat Jay Chen. HIDALGO COUNTY, TEXAS Race to watch: Texas 15th Congressional District
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Top chart represents all counties in Texas and how they voted in 2020. | POLITICO illustration | This border county, which includes the city of McAllen, has long been a Democratic stronghold. Republicans, though, have been making inroads rapidly in this majority-Latino district over the past two presidential cycles. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton carried it by a 40-point margin. Four years later, Biden carried it by only 17 points. Now, the House majority may be determined by which way the Rio Grande Valley goes. It's no wonder why this seat is now open. Incumbent Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez decided he's got a better shot at returning to Congress if he runs in the new Texas 34th District. That leaves voters with an all-Latina contest with Republican nominee Monica De La Cruz, who narrowly lost to Gonzalez in 2020, taking on Democrat Michelle Vallejo in November. De La Cruz has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump and a pair of potential 2024 presidential candidates, Sens. Tim Scott of South Carolina and Ted Cruz of Texas. For her part, Vallejo has been endorsed by progressive groups, including the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, Emily's List and the United Farm Workers of America. POLITICO handicaps this race as Leans Republican. KENOSHA COUNTY, WIS. Races to watch: U.S. Senate, Governor
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Top chart represents all counties in Wisconsin and how they voted in 2020. | POLITICO illustration | Wisconsin's Kenosha County was thrust into the national spotlight in 2020 after the police shooting of Jacob Blake, a Black man who was left paralyzed after the encounter. The incident sparked violent demonstrations, culminating in a white teenager shooting and killing two protesters. That teenager, Kyle Rittenhouse, was acquitted of all charges, including first-degree intentional homicide. Kenosha will be pivotal in Democrats' quest to increase their majority in the U.S. Senate — and retain the governor's mansion, too. Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is seeking a second term this year while Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, considered to be the Democratic front-runner for the Senate, has a slight lead according to most polls heading into the Aug. 9 primary. If Barnes wins his primary and triumphs in the general in the fall, he'll be Wisconsin's first Black senator. To accomplish that, he'll have to knock off incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson in. In 2016, Johnson won Kenosha by 2.5 percentage points . President Trump, meanwhile, won the county by just 255 votes that same year, on his way to winning the state. Four years later, Trump grew his margin of victory in the county, this time winning by more than 2,700 votes — but he wound up losing the state to Biden in 2020. POLITICO has both the Senate and gubernatorial races as Toss Ups. COBB COUNTY & GWINNETT COUNTY, GA Races to watch: U.S. Senate, Governor
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Top chart represents all counties in Georgia and how they voted in 2020. | POLITICO illustration | These Atlanta-area counties will be the focus of a Republican Party trying to maintain its hold on the governor's mansion — and take back a long-held GOP seat that slipped away in early 2021. Georgia is rapidly becoming a more diverse state, with population and demographic booms around the capital city. In Gwinnett, non-Hispanic white populations dwindled while Black, Latino and Asian populations saw their numbers increase. Gwinnett and Cobb began their Democratic lean in 2016, eventually helping Biden win the state two years ago. He was the first Democrat to win the Peach State since Bill Clinton accomplished that feat in 1992. This cycle, Georgia is ground zero for the nation's most closely watched Senate contest. It's notable that in this Southern state the contest is between two Black nominees. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is a pastor who leads the church Dr. Martin Luther King once called his spiritual home while his challenger, Republican Herschel Walker, is a retired football player who won a Heisman Trophy while at the University of Georgia. The state is also hosting a rematch of the 2018 gubernatorial contest between Democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who won by less than 55,000 votes. POLITICO rates both the Senate and gubernatorial races as Toss Ups. All the best,
The Recast Team
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| Power dynamics are changing. With The Recast, you'll get a twice-weekly breakdown of how race and identity are the DNA of American politics and policy. Was this forwarded to you by a friend? Subscribe to the newsletter here.
| | | BIDEN HECKLED AT GUN SAFETY EVENT At a White House event promoting recently passed gun safety legislation, the father of a student gunned down in the Parkland, Fla., school shooting, rose to his feet and confronted President Biden. "We have to do more than that!" Manuel Oliver shouted from the audience. His teenage son, Joaquin, was among the 17 people killed at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in 2018. In the wake of the shooting, both student survivors and parents alike became passionate advocates for gun control. WATCH: Manuel Oliver interrupts Biden's gun control speech
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| Most of Oliver's comments were inaudible. However, according to the official White House transcript, he also told Biden, "We have to open an office in the White House … I've been trying to tell you this for years." "Let him talk," Biden said. "Make no mistake about it: This legislation is real progress, but more has to be done" adding the bipartisan bill, which he signed into law last month, will save lives. Oliver, who was eventually escorted out, did not respond to The Recast's request for comment. Ahead of the event, Oliver tweeted:
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Twitter | The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act provides narrow restrictions on firearm ownership and expands background checks to include juvenile mental health records for gun buyers younger than 21. Biden also reiterated calls to ban assault weapons — but that has little chance of passing in this current Congress.
| | | BRITTNEY GRINER MADE HONORARY ALL-STAR At the WNBA's annual All-Star game on Sunday, the league and its players honored Brittney Griner throughout the game, first naming her an honorary starter. Then, in the second half, all players donned jerseys with the number 42 — Griner's number — and "Griner" on the back. Griner, a two-time Olympic champion and multiple-time all-star selection, pleaded guilty last week to drug charges in a Russian courtroom. She told the court Thursday she did not intentionally bring vape cartridges containing a banned substance into the country. If convicted she could face up to 10 years in prison there. The fact that she's Black and a celebrity and detained in Russia, a geopolitical foe of the United States, has raised the stakes in an already complicated situation. WATCH: Why negotiations around Brittney Griner's arrest could drag on
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| Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed a letter was delivered to Griner from President Biden. The details of the letter were not made public, and it came days after Griner wrote Biden, "I'm terrified I might be here forever." During the ESPN broadcast of the game, Griner's wife, Cherelle, who was seated courtside, said it is difficult being around basketball while her wife is imprisoned. She also added she was appreciative of the support she received from the league and the players. "What I do know is that President Biden and his administration actually took the time to write BG back," Cherelle Griner said. "She is so grateful for that. And right now, I truly believe the next step in this journey is actually to support our administration, making sure they have our support to do whatever is necessary to bring her home." President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris spoke with Griner's wife last week, according to the White House. Their call came after a collective of prominent Black women entertainers, business leaders and athletes penned a letter accusing the administration of failing to make Griner's safe return a top priority. "For Cherelle to get the call from the president and the vice president … and to hear that BG and others were a priority … that's all we needed to hear," Terri Carmichael Jackson, the executive director of the WNBA players' association, told The Recast. "We believe now the rhetoric is matching the action," she added. The Phoenix Mercury star has been detained in Russia since February. She also plays professionally for Russia's UMMC Ekaterinburg during the WNBA off-season. In May, the U.S. designated Griner as "wrongfully detained" by Russia. Griner's next court appearance is scheduled for Thursday.
| | | ICYMI @ POLITICO Abortion Guidence — On Monday, the Biden administration issued guidance to remind doctors across the nation that federal law protects them should they need to terminate a patient's pregnancy. POLITICO's Alice Miranda Ollstein breaks down what it all means. Accidental Weed Legalization? — POLITICO's Paul Demko takes a look at the hazy circumstances in Minnesota , where some lawmakers appear dazed and confused about significant drug policy changes.
| | | THE RECAST RECOMMENDS The Library of Congress has announced the next poet laureate: Ada Limón. Check out her work here. "Brother Alive," a novel by Zain Khalid, follows the story of three brothers who live above a mosque in Staten Island with their adoptive father. Zendaya spills the tea and shares nuggets of wisdom while eating Italian food with Vogue India.
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| Carmen Rita Wong, the former host of CNBC's "On The Money" brings us "Why Didn't You Tell Me?" — a memoir exploring race, family and secrets. It's out today. In this NPR Tiny Desk (Home) Concert, Maylee Todd introduces us to her performing digital avatar, Maloo. It's pretty trippy. Take a tour through Elliot Page's formidable portfolio. Russ Millions boasts that he's got what it takes to make you "Fall in Love."
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| We're sending you out into the week with "No Más," a summer vibe brought to you by Murda Beatz, J Balvin, Anitta and Pharrell.
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| TikTok of the day: A+ canine
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