Hurricane Andrew and lessons in climate science

Presented by Chevron: Your guide to the political forces shaping the energy transformation

Aug 26, 2022 View in browser   By Nick Sobczyk Presented by Chevron PROGRAMMING NOTE: Power Switch won't publish from Monday, Aug. 29, to Monday, Sept. 5. We'll be back on our normal schedule on Tuesday, Sept. 6. Hurricane Harvey as photographed from aboard the International Space Station. | NASA via Getty Images The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet so far, but historically, it's a big week for big storms. Hurricane Andrew, one of the most destructive storms in U.S. history, made landfall in Florida 30 years ago this week. A Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds hitting 165 mph, Andrew caused roughly $26 billion in damage, destroyed more than 50,000 homes and changed the way the nation thinks about hurricanes. Cities in South Florida promptly updated their building codes and began enforcing them more robustly. The state now has some of the strongest codes in the country. Hurricane forecasting has also improved dramatically , which can help people get out of harm's way before a storm. The National Hurricane Center says tracking accuracy has increased 75 percent, while intensity forecasts have improved 50 percent. 'Woefully unprepared' Since the 1980s, however, hurricanes have only gotten longer, more frequent and more intense. Scientists expect climate change, caused by emissions from burning fossil fuels, to make big storms more extreme and to bring on higher storm surge because of sea-level rise. Andrew was the costliest hurricane in U.S. history until Hurricane Katrina struck Louisiana, also in late August, in 2005. Andrew's record has since been surpassed five more times by Irma, Ida, Sandy, Maria and Harvey. Many disaster managers and experts believe the nation is not ready for what's coming. Most jurisdictions around the country do not have adequate building codes, and taxpayers often foot the bill for rebuilding the most flood-prone properties via the beleaguered National Flood Insurance Program. "These disasters will get worse, and their impact farther reaching, yet most Americans remain woefully unprepared," Craig Fugate, a former head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, wrote in an op-ed with former FEMA official Roy Wright this week. Climate science One thing that has advanced is climate science. Researchers can now pinpoint how climate change affects individual storms. Studies showed that Hurricane Harvey, which made landfall five years ago this week, was worsened by climate change as it dumped record rainfall on the Houston area. A study published this week found that 30 to 50 percent of the properties that flooded during Harvey would not have been inundated without climate change. As for the 2022 season, which runs through Nov. 30, the National Weather Service is still expecting an above-average year, despite a slow start. Andrew, after all, was the first named storm of the season when it barreled ashore in 1992.   Today in POLITICO Energy's podcast: POLITICO's Camille von Kaenel breaks down California's new rule banning new gas-powered cars by 2035. Listen to today's POLITICO Energy podcast Thank goodness it's Friday —  thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Nick Sobczyk, with help today from Timothy Cama . Arianna Skibell will be back soon. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments and questions to nsobczyk@eenews.net or tcama@eenews.net. Featured story Mountain Valley pipeline. | Claudine Hellmuth/E&E News The Mountain Valley pipeline, a natural gas project coveted by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), is at the center of a debate about federal environmental reviews that's coming into the national limelight. And it's personal for many of the private landowners who would see their property bisected by the interstate project. Miranda Willson reports from West Virginia, with help from Hannah Northey and Carlos Anchondo. Views about the pipeline are mixed, and the project faces pushback on the ground from people across the political spectrum. Much of the pipe has been laid, but the project has been held up by lengthy court battles over its environmental permits amid concerns about its impacts on waterways, endangered species and private land. "We are certainly David and MVP is Goliath," said Becky Crabtree, whose property is in the pipeline's path. "But I believe that every inch of their construction will be met with resistance in one form or another." Manchin wants to complete the pipeline as part of a permitting reform bill he has agreed to with congressional leadership in exchange for his vote on Democrats' climate bill. Read the full story here. Power Centers A Coast Guard icebreaker in the Arctic Ocean. | Devin Powell/NOAA via AP The iceman cometh President Joe Biden plans to create an ambassador position for the Arctic, as sea ice thaws due to climate change and an international energy competition takes hold in the region, writes Nahal Toosi. Shipping lanes are opening in the Arctic, and the United States and top foreign adversaries have developed new economic and military interests there in recent years. Read the story here. The 'Great Wall of Trees' President Franklin Roosevelt got farmers to plant an enormous wall of trees across the plains during the Dust Bowl, as part of the New Deal. Armed with tens of billions of dollars from the new climate law, the Biden administration could embark on a similar project for climate resilience, writes Daniel Cusick. Read about it here. Sticker shock Energy prices in the United Kingdom will increase more than 80 percent after a decision by energy regulator Ofgem, writes Zoya Sheftalovich. The spike is driven in part by the Russian war in Ukraine. Ofgem chief Jonathan Brearley acknowledged that the U.K. could see significant energy-related hardships this winter. Read more here.   A message from Chevron: At Chevron, we believe the future of energy is lower carbon. In the Permian Basin, we're exploring solutions to help meet growing energy demand, while reducing emissions intensity.   In Other News A coal-fired power plant. | Larry D. Moore/Wikipedia Drought fuels coal use: China's record drought is straining its hydroelectric generation, leading to more coal burning. Russian gas flaring: A major Russian LNG plant near the Finnish border is flaring about $10 million worth of natural gas per day. All in on batteries: The head of Volkswagen's truck operations says battery electric technology will soon be dominant in the industry, including in applications like timber. Question Corner The science, policy and politics driving the energy transition can feel miles away. But we're all affected on an individual and communal level — from hotter days and higher gas prices to home insurance rates and food supply. Want to know more? Send us your questions and we'll get you answers.   A message from Chevron:   Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. Simon Stiell of Grenada. | AP Photo/Alberto Pezzali, File Simon Stiell, the United Nations' next climate chief, comes from Grenada, giving small island nations a key ally in the fight against climate change. LUMA Energy, the operator of Puerto Rico's power grid, rolled out a new effort meant to protect against power outages amid growing protests against the contractor. The new climate law is raising questions about whether the U.S. solar energy supply chain can handle the coming demand. That's it for today, folks. Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend!   A message from Chevron: At Chevron, we recognize that energy demand is growing. It's why we're increasing production to help keep up. This year in the Permian Basin, we plan to increase oil production by 15% over 2021 levels. And we're projected to reach 1 million barrels of oil per day by 2025, while continuing to reduce both carbon and methane emissions intensities. From 2016 to 2028, we're on track to reduce our methane emissions intensity in the region by 50%. In fact, nationwide, our onshore methane intensity is 85% lower than the U.S. industry average. Every day, we look for opportunities to reduce our emission intensity as we strive to produce energy that Americans—and customers throughout the world—can count on. Find out more.     Follow us on Twitter Arianna Skibell @ariannaskibell   Follow us

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