| | | | |  | | By Paul McLeary, Alexander Ward and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
Ukrainian servicemen ride atop of an armored vehicle on a road in Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, Sunday, Aug. 28, 2022. | Leo Correa/AP Photo | With help from Lara Seligman, Phelim Kine and Lee Hudson Subscribe here | Email Alex Top military weapons buyers from dozens of countries are huddling in Brussels on Wednesday to discuss next steps in arming Ukraine for the long haul, and to begin mapping out a strategy for replenishing their own stocks depleted by the war. The meeting takes place as the Kremlin hardens its position on the war, calling up 300,000 conscripts and threatening to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine continues its offensive against Russian-occupied territory. The day of meetings in Brussels comes under the umbrella of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, an ad hoc alliance of around 50 NATO, EU and other nations that have gathered every few weeks to discuss what military aid can be sent to Ukraine rapidly. Those meetings have spurred the transfer of American-made guided-missile launchers, along with multiple rocket launchers, armored vehicles and artillery systems from across Europe. WILLIAM LaPLANTE, the Pentagon's top acquisitions official, is convening Wednesday's meeting. The Pentagon announced a new $1.1 billion military aid package to Ukraine on Wednesday featuring 18 new HIMARS. The money will be drawn from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, leaving about $400 million in the account. An increased supply of weapons to replace what's been given to Ukraine couldn't come quickly enough for frontline states in Europe. They fear that clogged supply chains, dwindling workforces and long lead times will leave their arsenals thinned out, complicating their material support to Kyiv in the months ahead. "There's no quick replenishment fix," a senior Finnish defense official told NatSec Daily and a group of reporters and experts in Helsinki last week, noting that everyone's stocks are shrinking fast. "Big wars take a lot of bullets." "We are having discussions with the defense industry because like most countries we have taken equipment, weapons, ammunition and so on from our stocks to send to Ukraine," Norwegian Defense Minister BJØRN ARILD GRAM told POLITICO during a visit to Washington for meetings at the Pentagon last week. "We will still look into that but at the same time … we have to replenish our own stocks and also purchase more for Ukraine." In the meantime, officials in Europe's east continue to push France and Germany to arm Kyiv, giving Ukraine the firepower it needs and smaller countries enough time to regrow their arsenals. "If other countries did as much as we are doing, the war would be over," Latvian Defense Minister ARTIS PABRIKS told the same group of reporters and experts in Riga last week. "We had to start expanding production already yesterday." At issue are calls for Germany to give Leopard main battle tanks to Ukraine to help in its grinding offensives in the south and east, something Berlin has so far refused to do until other allies also send heavy armor. The French are also in the mix for potentially sending more Caesar mobile howitzers to Ukraine, and Foreign Minister CATHERINE COLONNA arrived in Kyiv on an unannounced visit on Tuesday. Read Paul and Alex's full story.
| | | | TUNE IN TO CEPA FORUM 2022. The Center for European Policy Analysis hosts US Dep. Sec. of State Wendy Sherman, Slovakian President Zuzana Čaputová, and other global leaders to discuss how Europe and North America can work together to ensure a resilient, democratic future. WATCH NOW. | | | | | | | | 200,000 RUSSIANS HAVE FLED: A minimum of 200,000 Russians have fled the country following Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN's military mobilization order last week, the New York Times' MATTHEW MPOKE BIGG reported. "The government of Kazakhstan said on Tuesday that 98,000 Russians had entered the country in the last week and Georgia's interior minister said more than 53,000 people had crossed into the country from Russia since Sept. 21, when the mobilization was announced. The daily number climbed over those days to around 10,000 from a normal level of about 5,000 to 6,000. The European Union's border agency, Frontex, said in a statement that nearly 66,000 Russian citizens entered the bloc in the week to Sunday, up 30 percent from the previous week," he wrote. "Those numbers give some additional credence to the scale of exodus described in a report over the weekend by the independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta, which cited what it said was a security service estimate, provided by an unnamed source, of 261,000 men having left the country by Sunday," Bigg noted. U.S. CITIZENS WARNED TO LEAVE RUSSIA: The U.S. embassy in Moscow is urging American citizens in Russia to leave immediately. "Russia may refuse to acknowledge dual nationals' U.S. citizenship, deny their access to U.S. consular assistance, prevent their departure from Russia, and conscript dual nationals for military service," the embassy warned in a security alert . "U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling [sic] in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain." There are fears that Russia will permanently close its borders to stop the exodus of Russians. That could leave American citizens stuck in the country with little to no support from the U.S. government. WARNINGS OF PIPELINE SABOTAGE: The U.S. warned its allies in Europe over the summer that Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines could be attacked, CNN's NATASHA BERTRAND and KATIE BO LILLIS reported. "The warnings were based on US intelligence assessments, but they were vague, the people said – it was not clear from the warnings who might be responsible for any attacks on the pipelines or when they might occur," they wrote. JOSEP BORRELL, the European Union's top diplomat, said in a Wednesday statement that the explosions a day before were no accident. "These incidents are not a coincidence and affect us all. All available information indicates those leaks are the result of a deliberate act. We will support any investigation aimed at getting full clarity on what happened and why, and will take further steps to increase our resilience in energy security," he said. Norway is sending its military to protect its oil and gas installations against possible sabotage, Prime Minister JONAS GAHR STØRE said. IT'S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @alexbward. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95 and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
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The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century warfare network-centric architecture. Learn more. | | | | | | NORTH KOREA MISSILE TEST: OK, this is getting repetitive: Pyongyang launched two short ballistic missiles ahead of Vice President KAMALA HARRIS ' visit to the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea and two days after U.S.-South Korea drills. This is the second North Korean missile test this week, with the first coming on Sunday. The Wednesday firing happened in the mid-afternoon local time and flew about 225 miles, reaching an altitude of 19 miles, Reuters' HYONHEE SHIN reported. Around the same time, Harris told the New York Times' ZOLAN KANNO-YOUNGS that North Korean leader KIM JONG UN's actions were destabilizing and in many ways provocative" and that "we stand with our allies." U.S. SLAMS IRAN OVER IRAQ STRIKES : National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN condemned Iran for striking the headquarters of three Iranian Kurdish parties inside Iraq, killing at least nine people and wounding another 30. "Iran cannot deflect blame from its internal problems and the legitimate grievances of its population with attacks across its borders," he said, noting the nearly two weeks of protests against Iranian authorities. "Its flagrant use of missiles and drones against its neighbors, as well as its providing of drones to Russia for its war of aggression in Ukraine and to proxies throughout the Middle East region, should be universally condemned." The Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed responsibility for the attacks, saying the targets were "bases operated by separatist terrorists."
| | | NEW WH CYBER LEADER SPEAKS: CAMILLE STEWART GLOSTER, the new deputy national cyber director for technology and ecosystem security, says she is convinced her dual-hatted charges on technology and workforce issues are related. "Technology is operated by people, created by people, abused by people and used by people," she told the Washington Post's TIM STARKS in her first interview since starting her role in July. "And understanding the connections there, and how that then connects to your awareness, interest and pursuit of cyber careers or technology careers is really important. So I think there is a big linkage there and an opportunity to really take a fulsome look at the cyber ecosystem." Stewart Gloster and her team of four people — which could grow to as many as 16 — will focus on "The cyber workforce, education and training" and "Technology security: emerging technology, research and development, strengthening the hardware and software supply chain."
| | | CIV CAS REPORT: The Pentagon assessed that there were roughly 12 civilians killed and five wounded last year as a result of U.S. military operations, according to the department's annual report released Tuesday — a number that experts said seemed low. All of the casualties occurred in Afghanistan: 10 in the military's errant drone strike in Kabul on Aug. 29, 2021; one in Kandahar on Aug. 11; and one in Herat on Jan. 8. The report also confirmed that DoD has not yet made any ex gratia payments to the families of the victims of the Kabul attack, many of whom were children. Out of the $3 million annual fund set aside by Congress for such payments, DoD made only one in 2021, for the Jan. 8 incident, according to the report, per our own LARA SELIGMAN. "This is the first time in over a year they have paid anyone for harm caused by US actions, and it is a shocking continuation of our lack of accountability," MARC GARLASCO, the military adviser at PAX, a Dutch NGO, and former Chief of High Value Targeting on the Joint Staff, wrote in an email to NatSec D. "It is difficult to grasp why we can't provide amends to all those that have been harmed in acknowledged US operations that led to civilian harm." In addition to the planned payments, the Biden administration is helping evacuate the families of the victims of the Aug. 29 attack to Albania, with the ultimate goal of resettling them in the United States, a State Department spokesperson confirmed to NatSec D. Roughly 80 percent of the group has been evacuated from Afghanistan, but the rest have been held up as the administration works through travel documentation requirements requested from local officials.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | | SENATE APPROVES MORE UKRAINE FUNDING: The Senate advanced $12.3 billion in additional military and economic aid for Ukraine as part of a measure that will keep the federal government open through mid-December, our CONNOR O'BRIEN reported. The figure is $600 million more than what PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN sought and would be split between the Pentagon, which would receive $7.8 billion, and the State Department, which would get $4.5 billion. The Department of Energy would receive $35 million to help facilitate any nuclear or radiological responses in Ukraine in the event of an incident. The bill also renews the administration's ability to transfer U.S. weapons directly to Ukraine and authorizes $3 billion in unspent Pentagon humanitarian funds to be shifted to support Afghan resettlement efforts. NATSEC DEM BRAIN DRAIN?: Connor also reported on the growing chances that Democrats will face a brain drain of national security-oriented lawmakers after the midterms. "Democrats on committees with oversight of defense and foreign policy issues are among some of the most vulnerable incumbents in a cycle where Republicans are narrowly favored to take the House," he wrote. "Losing leading national security lawmakers, either through retirements or in a wave of election losses, would mean less expertise and less aggressive oversight, Democratic lawmakers said. It would also come as some Democrats warn that handing over the reins to Republicans will jeopardize ongoing aid to Ukraine and other priorities." "I'm hugely concerned," said Rep. SETH MOULTON (D-Mass.), a member of the House Armed Services Committee whose Serve America PAC backs numerous Democratic candidates who are military veterans or have civilian national security expertise. "These are some of our best members." Among the retirees are three senior Democrats on the House Armed Services Committee: Reps. JIM LANGEVIN of Rhode Island, JIM COOPER of Tennessee and JACKIE SPEIER of California. Three other Democrats on the committee — Reps. ELISSA SLOTKIN of Michigan, ELAINE LURIA of Virginia and JARED GOLDEN of Maine, all centrists — have among the toughest reelection races among the party's incumbents. TAIWAN POLICY ACT: Thirty-seven House Republicans introduced the Taiwan Policy Act in the House, which would prove the biggest revamp of U.S.-Taiwan policy in more than four decades. The introduction by Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and his colleagues comes two weeks after a Senate version of the bill passed through the corresponding Senate panel. The fate of the TPA in both chambers remains uncertain, especially since the White House has expressed skepticism about the measure for fear of escalating tensions with China at an already hair-trigger moment.
| | | DEFIANCE BY PACIFIC ISLANDS: Dissension among participants of the first-ever U.S.-Pacific Island Country Summit opening Wednesday in Washington, D.C., is complicating the Biden administration's efforts to forge stronger ties with the region, our China Watcher PHELIM KINE reported. The Marshall Islands on Sept. 23 suspended talks with the U.S. on renewing its strategic partnership, or Compact of Free Association Agreement, to protest the perceived U.S. failure to address the economic, environmental and health legacy of U.S. nuclear weapons testing around the atolls from 1946 to 1958. And the Solomon Islands, which signed a controversial security pact with China this year, is refusing to sign an 11-point summit declaration "designed to provide a framework for intensified U.S. engagement in the Pacific," the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported Tuesday. But JOHN HENNESSEY-NILAND , the recently departed U.S. ambassador to Palau, told NatSec D and Kine in a separate interview that the summit won't be a failure. "The fact that we have a large number of Pacific Island leaders here in Washington today and for the rest of the week, meeting with the president and the most senior officials of the United States government, that is an important accomplishment in itself," he said. Hennessey-Niland, now at Texas A&M University, said the Biden administration would do well to engage the region on what he terms the three Cs: China, climate and capacity building. "What was good enough before isn't good enough now. The needs of the Pacific islands are real. We have to adjust," he said.
| | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: WILLIAM BODIE will join the Center for Strategic and International Studies as senior director of development on Oct. 3. He is the director of development at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. — STEPHANIE BARNA is joining Covington's Public Policy practice. Barna was formerly the general counsel on the Senate Armed Services Committee. — JEFF SMITH was named the new director of the Heritage Foundation's Asia Studies Center. He'll continue to work on India and the Quad, but the center itself "will be laser-focused on the mounting threats and challenges posed by the Communist Party of China," he said in a tweet.
| | | |   | | | | | | — ALEKSANDR KOLBIN, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: War and peace: imagining a way from one to the other in Ukraine — MELISSA CHAN, Vice News: They Were Trained to Defend Taiwan from China. They Aren't Sure They Can. — KAREEM FAHIM, ZEYNEP KARATAS and ROBYN DIXON, The Washington Post: The Russian men fleeing mobilization, and leaving everything behind
| | | — The United States Institute of Peace, 9 a.m.: "The Persistent Challenge of Extremism in Bangladesh" — The Peterson Institute for International Economics, 9 a.m.: "Ukraine's Economy and Finances, Seven Months into the War" — Center for European Policy Analysis, 9:30 a.m.: "Meeting the Moment: Allies at a Crossroads" — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: "Assessing the Biden Administration's U.S. Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa" — The Arab Center, 10 a.m.: "Turkey and the Arab World: Ankara's Shifting Relations and Evolving Foreign Policy" — The House Science, Space and Technology Committee, 10:30 a.m.: "Trustworthy AI: Managing the Risks of Artificial Intelligence" — The George Washington University Sigur Center for Asian Studies, 10:30 a.m.: "Taiwan's New Security Challenges: Economic Security and Military Security" — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11:30 a.m.: "Is Putin Throwing Down the Gauntlet?" — The Center for American Progress, 3 p.m.: " A Conversation With Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall" — The Jamestown Foundation, 3 p.m.: "The War in Ukraine and Growing Risk of Russia's Rupture" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Dave Brown, who thinks our writing is so bad that someone must've sabotaged this newsletter.
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