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Dateline: The Blinken Bubble

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Oct 28, 2022 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Zi-Ann Lum and Nick Taylor-Vaisey with Philippe J. Fournier

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WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. Today, Zi-Ann Lum has the inside skinny on Antony Blinken's "second" visit to Canada. Playbook friend Philippe J. Fournier drops in with a reality check on Canada and the Crown. We have birthdays, itineraries, reading lists and trivia. Thanks for reading. Reach us here.

DRIVING THE DAY

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. | Zi-Ann Lum, POLITICO Canada

THE BLINKEN BUBBLE — Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN would like Canadians to know that his trip to Canada this week is technically his second — the first was virtual.

Roll those lines up again on the karaoke machine if and when President JOE BIDEN decides to stroll into town.

U.S. Ambassador DAVID COHEN was first to greet Blinken on the windy tarmac of the Ottawa airport. The state secretary's plane arrived nearly 10 minutes early — an omen for the day's quick pace with ahead-of-schedule arrival times.

Seasoned American and Canadian delegation members were repeatedly pleasantly surprised.

— The nature of things: A comical scene unfolded outside 7 Rideau Gate when the pesky press were pooled across the street to record Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY greeting Blinken.

The wind, sun, and, well, being across the street, made it difficult to hear their inside voices outside. When they were ushered into the house, they tried again.

— In the bilat room: After the media were shooed away, dignitaries started their working lunch inside the 160-year-old residence.

Joly brought one of her deputy ministers, DAVID MORRISON , Chief of Staff SANDRA AUBÉ, Americas assistant deputy minister MICHAEL GRANT, policy director TANIA BELISLE-LECLERC (formerly at national defense), ex-diplomat turned assistant deputy minister HEIDI HULAN and Canada's Ambassador to the U.S KIRSTEN HILLMAN.

On Team U.S.A.: State Department Chief of Staff SUZY GEORGE, Counselor of the U.S. State Department DEREK CHOLLET, Policy Planning Staff Director SALMAN AHMED, Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs BRIAN NICHOLS and Nichols' deputy JUAN SEBASTIAN GONZALEZ. Ambassador Cohen was also in the room.

— On the menu: At the Ukraine Cafe, co-founder YAROSLAV BARAN pointed out the "very Uki" treats they had ready for Blinken: honey cake, poppy seed roll and khrustyky (fried cookies with dusted icing sugar). At the end of the night, Blinken joined Joly and Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU at North & Navy.

Poutine was the topic of enthusiastic chatter your Playbooker overheard at nearly every event. Speaking of which, Blinken's bubble will move around Montreal today.

— Headline from Day 1: 'Haiti needs us.' But Blinken and Joly warn crisis demands triage.

— Record scratch: What's a bilat without an eyebrow-raising exchange to trained ears.

When Joly announced Canada would seek membership to the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), it was Blinken's response that made trade hawks do a double take.

Blinken said the U.S. supports Canada's IPEF friend request, but then hedged it's not up to them who joins the Biden-initiated trade club.

"In the coming months, we'll consult closely with other IPEF members on the development of a process for considering new members because it's not a decision the United States can make unilaterally."

Better hurry, chéri Tony. Joly has an Indo-Pacific strategy to release.

— In related leaks: The Star's HEATHER SCOFFIELD reports: The long-lost plan for how Canada should deal with China and the rest of Asia is in its final stages.

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A message from Team SkyGuardian Canada:

Leveraging the well-proven MQ-9 platform that has supported Five Eyes and NATO missions for more than a decade, Team SkyGuardian brings together the best in business and technology to serve Canada, the Canadian Armed Forces, and the many industries that support them. Our government and industry team will help ensure Canada's safety and security for the long term.

 
For your radar


CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE  — The Wall Street Journal has just published Three Arrests, Two Superpowers and a Secret Prisoner Swap — a 10,000-word thumper on Meng Wanzhou and "the two Michaels."

The deeply reported feature from DREW HINSHAW, JOE PARKINS, ARUNA VISWANATHA and others draws on interviews with just about everyone associated with the case, including diplomats from Canada, China and the U.S.

Hinshaw described the team's reporting work as "stepping into the strange world of hostage diplomacy, where superpowers trade in human lives in between small talk at presidential dinners."

Here are just a few evocative details from the must-read long read:

On Trudeau's first bilateral meeting with Biden: "The first item on Mr. Trudeau's meeting agenda was the release of Messrs. Kovrig and Spavor." Biden reportedly told the PM he would not interfere in the judicial process.

"Everything else, I am here for you."

On Meng's "jail in Vancouver," a $12.3 million, seven-bedroom villa: "The former head sales executive in Europe directed Ms. Meng's daily Zumba classes and yoga workouts. Personal chefs prepared health-conscious meals. A florist arranged bouquets for the dining table."

On ambassador Dominic Barton's mission to free Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig: He charted release strategies on a whiteboard in an embassy saferoom. "He delivered coded messages in rapid-fire English he knew eavesdropping guards would struggle to understand."

FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA

King Charles III speaking at a podium in front of a velvet drape and a throne.

Long to reign over us? | Pool Photo by Victoria Jones

The Bloc Québécois's attempt to sever ties with the British monarchy failed in a decisive House vote on Wednesday. But is the BQ really so far out of step with Canadians? Here's POLITICO Canada's polling analyst PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER:

THE MONARCHY WEDGE — While it must be uncomfortable for Liberals and Conservatives to argue with the Bloc Québécois on, well, anything related to Canada's governance system, it has to be nothing short of excruciating when the BQ's position appears to align with the view of most Canadian voters.

In a letter published by the National Post this week, Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET wrote: "There is no reason why you or we should give precedence to an archaic oath to a foreign king over the solemn duty that binds us to our constituents."

— The polling: Blanchet cited an April 2022 Angus Reid survey that measured Canadians' attachment to the Crown: 71 percent of Quebecers want the monarchy gone, as do 51 percent of Canadians.

Noted the pollsters: "There is no province in Canada where the percentage of people who support the monarchy exceeds the percentage of those who oppose it."

— Post-QEII: Shortly after the queen died, Léger polled Canadians on the impact of her death . The numbers suggest a vast majority of Canadians are apathetic. Only 6 percent say it had a major impact on them personally.

— Worth noting: King Charles III is nowhere as popular as his mother. Asked whether Charles's ascension to the Crown was good or bad news, 15 percent answered it was good news, 16 percent said bad news, and 61 percent were indifferent.

Indifference wasn't just a Quebec thing. A majority said so in all regions in Canada.

— The politics: Do Liberals and Conservatives really want to make a fuss about Blanchet's admission that he didn't really mean it when he pledged allegiance to the queen at his swearing-in? Wouldn't that cede the high ground on the issue to the sovereigntist party?

For most Quebecers, the oath is a ridiculous nuisance — a relic of the province's colonial past that should have been relegated to history books a long time ago.

But the arrival of Charles reminded them of an egregious reality. Our elected officials swear allegiance to Canada's monarch, but let's not be cute about it. Charles is a Brit who rules a foreign nation, and he just so happens to wear Canada's Crown, too.

— The question: How long can a country that has grown so much since Confederation possibly keep this up? Canadians might profess indifference on the throne, perhaps because there are so many more important concerns dominating their day-to-day lives. But a majority are ready to bid adieu to Charles as a head of state.

— The irony: On the need for a monarchy, neither the prime minister nor Conservative leader PIERRE POILIEVRE speak for Canada's majority. They appear prepared to cede the ground, particularly in Quebec, to none other than the leader of the Bloc Québécois.

 

A message from Team SkyGuardian Canada:

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TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS


— The PM will attend the opening of the Triennial Congress of Ukrainian Canadians in Winnipeg. Later in the day, he'll meet with members of the local Iranian community.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND arrives in Winnipeg for "private meetings" before a 1:20 p.m. armchair discussion with ROMAN WASCHUK at the Triennial Congress of Ukrainian Canadians.

— Former Ottawa police chief PETER SLOLY appears at the Emergencies Act inquiry. The CBC's CATHARINE TUNNEY has a preview.

1 p.m. Trade Minister MARY NG will be at the House trade committee.

WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN

Canada's Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly welcomes U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Ottawa.

Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly welcomes U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Ottawa. | Blair Gable, AP

Who's up: ANTONY BLINKEN. 

Sure, it took some time for the U.S. Secretary of State to get around to visiting Canada. And so what if he first made multiple trips to Italy, Japan, France, the United Kingdom and Germany during the 21 months he's been in office.

No matter. His welcome to Canada on Thursday was warm and in two languages. "My dear Tony, mon chéri Tony," Joly said as she greeted her U.S. counterpart in Ottawa.

Who's down: DOUG ("I was out there nonstop speaking to the people") FORD.

Here's the latest on the growing pressure on Ontario's premier to testify at the Emergencies Act inquiry in Ottawa.

MEDIA ROOM


— The CBC's LIZ THOMPSON reports: FBI provided support to Ottawa police during convoy protest.

— Top of POLITICO this morning: Biden and Trump step into a Pennsylvania proxy war.

— At the Hub, GABRIELLE SORENSEN and KARAMVEER LALH have advice for PIERRE POILIEVRE: Leave the Bank of Canada alone .

— At The Line, KRISTIN RAWORTH reflects on the presence of COLIN THATCHER at Saskatchewan's "tough-on-crime" throne speech.

— Canadaland is launching a new podcast Monday : Ratf—er. JESSE BROWN and CHERISE SEUCHARAN dig through the "Klondike Papers" — decades of recorders belonging to former political fixer DAVID WALLACE.

— The Bad + Bitchy pod, hosted by ERICA IFILL and ERIN GEE, is recording a live episode at Algonquin College on Nov. 17 .

— A pair of senior government sources somewhere in the orbit of CHRYSTIA FREELAND's forthcoming Fall Economic Statement told Reuters the minister would stress fiscal prudence .

 

A message from Team SkyGuardian Canada:

Learn about the remotely piloted multi-mission aircraft building Canadian industrial partnerships that deliver sovereignty and security for Canada.

 
PROZONE


For POLITICO Pro subscribers, catch up to our latest policy newsletter: Blinken: U.S. backs Canada's desire to join IPEF.

In other news for subscribers:
— Putin's war marks 'turning point' for global fossil fuel demand, IEA says.
— Nord Stream 2 technical availability currently 'not a given,' Berlin says.
— The Pentagon's big defense and nuke strategies are out. Here are 16 things we learned.
— G-7 offered Vietnam and Indonesia $15B to drop coal. They said 'maybe.'
— Global crises pushing climate efforts off track, COP27 hosts warn.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD today to broadcasting legend DON NEWMAN, New Brunswick Green Party Leader and MLA DAVID COON and former NDP MP ROMEO SAGANASH. 

Celebrating Saturday: B.C. Agriculture Minister LANA POPHAM, former B.C. premier CHRISTY CLARK, retired general WALTER NATYNCZYK and former Alberta MLA TERESA WOO-PAW. On Sunday: Former MP JIM HART.

Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .

Anniversaries: Happy 15 years to Liberal MP RECHIE VALDEZ and CHRISTOPHER .

Congrats: Former Cabmin MARYAM MONSEF and former MP MATT DECOURCEY announced they're expecting a baby .

Spotted: Former Earnscliffe managing partner YAROSLAV BARAN and Roshel VP ANTON SESTRITSYN sipping coffee and speaking Ukrainian with Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND at Café Ukraine … Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON, talking about climate in D.C. with U.S. Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM.

Tory MP ARNOLD VIERSEN, catching up with party leader PIERRE POILIEVRE with a pelt of some sort in the foreground.

Overheard at Little Victories coffee on Elgin: "So you know BILL CURRY?" "Oh, I have him on speed dial." (Keep an eye out for Globe and Mail scoops, apparently.)

Movers and shakers: CPC HQ has a new employee as of Monday morning. MADDY STIEVA , a Toronto-based senior consultant at the Capital Hill Group, is the new executive assistant to executive director MIKE CRASE and the (so far unnamed) national campaign manager. When JENNI BYRNE was Premier DOUG FORD's principal secretary, Stieva was her executive assistant.

Therapsil CEO SPENCER HAWKSWELL registered as a Hill lobbyist. Hawkswell claims the government is "acting against the Charter of Rights and Freedoms by denying patients safe and reasonable access to Psilocybin" — aka magic mushrooms.

The National Ballet School tapped PAA Advisory consultant BRANDON PURCELL to secure more funding under the Canadian Arts Training Fund.

On the Hill


— Find the latest House committee meetings here.

— Keep track of Senate committees here.

— The XXVII Triennial Congress of Ukrainian Canadians starts in Winnipeg, Manitoba. Bob Rae, Canada's Ambassador to the United Nations, and National Defense Minister Anita Anand are notable speakers on the conference's first day.

8:45 a.m. The Special Joint Committee on Medical Assistance in Dying will hear from the following experts: ALICE MARIA CHUNG, JUDE POIRIER, ROSS UPSHUR, JONAS-SÉBASTIEN BEUDRY, ELLEN WIEBE and MARCIA SOKOLOWSKI.  

8:45 a.m. The subcommittee on human rights and foreign affairs will receive a briefing on Tigray from the Ethio-Canadian Network for Advocacy and Support, Security and Justice for Tigrayans Canada and others.

1 p.m. The House committee on fisheries and oceans continues its study on the right whale. It will hear from department officials as well as the New Brunswick Crab Processors Association and other industry representatives.

1 p.m. The House environment committee meets to consider Bill C-248, An Act to amend the Canada National Parks Act (Ojibway National Urban Park of Canada).

1 p.m. Environmental watchdog JERRY DEMARCO will be at the House public accounts committee with Defense Deputy Minister BILL MATTHEWS, Transport Deputy Minister MICHAEL KEENAN, Treasury Board Secretary GRAHAM FLACK and other senior officials.

1 p.m. Trade Minister MARY NG and department officials will be at the House international trade committee to discuss her work during the past summer.

Behind closed doors: The House citizenship and immigration committee meets to review a draft report of MPs' study of differential outcomes of IRCC decisions.

TRIVIA


Thursday's answer: Prime Minister JEAN CHRÉTIEN, Progressive Conservative Party leader JEAN CHAREST and Quebec Liberal Party leader DANIEL JOHNSON spoke at the Unity Rally at the Place du Canada on Oct. 27, 1995.

Props to GUY SKIPWORTH ("I was there and remember driving down the 401 and marveling at all the buses full of excited Canadians"), PETER MCKINNEY, DOUG RICE, JOANNA PLATER, LAURA JARVIS, SUSAN KEYS, PATRICK DION, ROBERT MCDOUGALL and NANCI WAUGH ("I remember jumping unto the subway at Jean Talon in Montreal and how the momentum built at each stop with more and more people getting on with flags").

Friday's question: Name the member of the Trudeau government who offered this reply in a scrum this week:

"Journalist to journalist, I'm just letting you know. You know I can't comment on this right now."

Send answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

 

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Sue Allan @susan_allan

Maura Forrest @MauraForrest

Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum

POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

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