China built new military post near disputed Indian border, satellite images show

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Nov 29, 2022 View in browser   By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg CSIS/ChinaPower/Maxar 2022 Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Lara Seligman and Daniel Lippman BREAKING — USA WINS!: The U.S. won a nervy, NERVY game against Iran 1-0. They're moving on to the Round of 16 against the Netherlands. Hope the NatSec Daily family will watch along with us at 10 a.m. ET on Saturday. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — China has built a military outpost near its disputed border with India, new satellite imagery shows, a move that signals Beijing's intentions for a long-term deployment at the global flashpoint. The pictures, obtained by the Center for Strategic and International Studies' China Power project and shared with NatSec Daily, show the People's Liberation Army constructed a headquarters and garrison to house troops at Pangong Tso, a remote lake that stretches across the Line of Actual Control between the two countries. CSIS/ChinaPower/Maxar 2022 CSIS says the HQ in the Himalayas could house a division "based on the size of the outpost and the level of activity," though other experts aren't as convinced. What all agree on is the new structures are meant for a forward-command post — a position that could allow China to more easily involve its military in the region. The LAC has been the de facto and long-disputed border between China and India since a 1962 war. China never said it would withdraw all its troops from the LAC, even after recent deadly skirmishes. The revealed encampment, like others just behind the LAC , is firmly within Chinese territory. "This appears consistent with China's efforts to improve infrastructure near the LAC in the eastern section. There are many other similar weapons emplacements in other locations, where China is clearly digging in for long-term, all-season presence and to have the means to react to any contingency," said M. TAYLOR FRAVEL, an expert on China's military and director of the security studies program at MIT. In a blog post , CSIS experts said China razed a temporary camp at the site in May 2020 and then started construction on more permanent facilities. Now, based on the Oct. 4 satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies, it looks like the work is done. The buildings are surrounded by trenches and equipment and weapons-storage areas, and the outpost also appears to host a full company of armored personnel carriers. All that could "prove critical in a future skirmish or conflict with India," the authors wrote. "The APCs and other vehicles stationed there could rush troops to key locations along the lake and the facility's howitzers and air defense weapons could be called upon to hold or advance PLA positions." The question is why the PLA would construct such a place. MATTHEW FUNAIOLE , a senior fellow with the China Power Project and a co-author of the blog post, said Beijing remains concerned about tensions at the controversial border with India. Clashes between the nations' troops erupted along the line in 2020, including in Pangong Tso , eventually leading to the deaths of 20 Indian and four Chinese people. CSIS/ChinaPower/Maxar 2022 And it would also help China more ably enforce its crackdowns on Xinjiang and Tibet, Funaiole said. "A more robust military presence in the region can help shore up both the internal and external situation." CSIS notes other work is underway near the new military position, namely a radome atop a mountain peak north of the lake and a bridge that will make it much easier for Chinese troops to travel across the body of water. CSIS/ChinaPower/Maxar 2022 CSIS/ChinaPower/Maxar 2022   NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS  – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID .     The Inbox BEIJING BULKS UP: China is continuing to steadily expand its nuclear arsenal and could have 1,500 warheads by 2035, according to a Defense Department study released on Tuesday, our own LARA SELIGMAN reports . Beijing's current nuclear stockpile has surpassed 400 warheads, the Pentagon warned in its annual report to Congress on China's military might. By 2035, officials expect the People's Liberation Army to complete the modernization of its military forces. The latest numbers show that China is on pace with the recent Pentagon estimates, according to a senior DoD official, who requested anonymity to discuss the report ahead of its release. As of January, the independent Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated that China had 350 nuclear warheads; last year, DoD estimated that China would reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. While the latest report does not reflect an acceleration from last year's pace of growth, China's nuclear buildup over the past few years is a "dramatic acceleration" from the mid-2000s, the official said. WAGNER, TERRORISTS?: The U.S. is weighing a terrorism label for the Russian mercenary outfit Wagner Group, Bloomberg News' DANIEL FLATLEY and STEPHANIE BAKER . "The Biden administration is weighing whether to label Russia's Wagner Group as a foreign terrorist organization...as part of efforts to handicap the privately owned military company's involvement in Ukraine and its growing presence in Africa," they wrote. A senior State Department official wouldn't confirm the report. "I have no discussions to confirm on this. The United States will continue to hold those responsible for perpetrating Russia's war against Ukraine to account." WEAPONS TO UKRAINE NOW: NATO countries urgently need to boost weapons production, Ukrainian Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA told our own LILI BAYER ahead of a meeting of the alliance's ministers this week. It would not be possible to win on the battlefield in the longer term without investing in making more weapons, Kuleba said, explaining that "while we are fighting the battles of today, we have to think how we will be fighting the battles of tomorrow." The minister said that NATO countries must "begin the production of necessary weapons today." If that doesn't happen, he cautioned, "we won't be able to win — as simple as that." AS LONG AS THEY AREN'T OUR TROOPS: The U.S. has been pushing for weeks for a multinational force in Haiti to stabilize the country. Some top officials in the Biden administration, however, are arguing that the U.S. shouldn't be part of that force, The New York Times' NATALIE KITROEFF reports , citing several current and former officials. In late October, our own ZI-ANN LUM reported that among the countries that have publicly indicated they're unwilling to commit to sending troops just yet is Canada, one of America's closest allies. France and Brazil also are in the talks, as are Caribbean governments, a senior Biden administration official and others monitoring the issue told NAHAL TOOSI earlier this month . In a move underscoring the nation's dire situation, Haiti's government last year requested foreign armed intervention to help quell unrest following former President JOVENEL MOÏSE's assassination, which set off waves of extreme violence. Even though U.S. officials want armed forces in Haiti, American military leaders don't want to send American troops to the shores, the officials said. IT'S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 . While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 , @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye . A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today. Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.   Flashpoints ONE HOTLINE, BARELY USED: The U.S. and Russia have used their military hotline to deconflict issues only once since the invasion of Ukraine, Reuters' PHIL STEWART and IDREES ALI report , citing an unnamed U.S. official. The line is regularly tested, but it's barely been used for its intended purpose. It's unclear when the phone rang for real, but the official said it wasn't used when the errant missile hit Poland on Nov. 15. IT'S HAPPENING: The leader of the Syrian Defense Forces, Gen. MAZLOUM ABDI, said his troops' operations against ISIS have been " temporarily paused " ahead of Turkey's expected ground invasion of northern Syria. "There will be war on all the border with Turkey," he said, claiming it wouldn't be a "limited" incursion. Unless the U.S. and Russia compel Turkey to stop, which they're unlikely to do , Mazloum expects the military push will start in about a week's time. Keystrokes OLD TRICKS: Chinese cyber sleuths are relying on old-fashioned tech to tee up cutting-edge espionage: USB drives, our friends over at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report . That's according to research out Monday from Mandiant, who determined that the common denominator for a wave of recent compromises across Southeast Asia was the use of infected storage devices on computers based in the Philippines. Once embedded onto victim computers, the hackers deployed three never-before-seen types of malware to spread across the network, write the Mandiant researchers. The malware then self-propagated much as it had gotten in, copying itself onto external storage devices. The Complex SPEED IT UP: The State Department's gatekeeper for arms sales and security assistance has been huddling with defense companies to clear up supply chains. The hope is that these efforts will help restock weapons in high demand from the war in Ukraine and to counter China, our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report . "First and foremost, we're really trying to work in partnership with industry to tackle this question of production timelines," JESSICA LEWIS, assistant secretary for the bureau of political-military affairs, told our own PAUL McLEARY. "I'm planning to meet with all of the major defense companies to really try to get a handle on what exactly is going on." Her efforts are closely aligned with the work the DoD has been doing — led by Deputy Defense Secretary KATHLEEN HICKS — to work more closely with industry chiefs to shore up the industrial base. Lewis has been expanding those efforts by meeting with allies in Europe and Asia to pulse their needs and capabilities and assess how they plan to increase their own industrial capacity.   GO INSIDE THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT: POLITICO is featuring a special edition of our "Future Pulse" newsletter at the 2022 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit from Dec. 6 to 8. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of health industry leaders and innovators solving the biggest global health issues to ensure a healthier, more resilient future for all. SUBSCRIBE TODAY TO RECEIVE EXCLUSIVE COVERAGE .     On The Hill MORE, MORE, MORE: Rep. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) is set to take the HASC gavel next year when Republicans control the House, and the chair-in-waiting is starting to outline his agenda, Morning Defense also reports. "A strong U.S. military is the only way to secure a free future for Americans," Rogers said in a statement outlining some priorities. "We must make critical investments in our military." In addition to continuing big increases in defense spending, Rogers is emphasizing boosting weapons production — including ships and long-range artillery — as well as fielding emerging technology. Read CONNOR O'BRIEN's full story (for Pros!) for more. Broadsides BE A LITTLE NICER: French President EMMANUEL MACRON may be getting wined and dined this week in Washington, but talks between him and President JOE BIDEN are expected to be tense as the French leader urges the U.S. to take it easy on European allies to avoid a trade war, our own CLEA CAULCUTT and GIORGIO LEALI report . Macron has been outspoken about his frustration with the U.S. profiting from the war in Ukraine, having already accused the U.S. of pursuing an "aggressive" protectionist approach and saying American gas prices are not "friendly." The French leader wants to know whether the U.S. president can offer cheaper gas and give Europe access to a multibillion-dollar U.S. subsidy scheme for green industries. If Biden can't deliver, a transatlantic trade war will likely ensue. YOON WANTS NUKES GONE: If North Korea goes ahead with a nuclear test, a response from Seoul will be "something that has not been seen before," South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL said in an interview with Reuters' SOYOUNG KIM, JACK KIM and JOSH SMITH . Yoon refused to elaborate further but urged China to help dissuade KIM JONG UN's regime from pursuing the development of nuclear weapons and missiles, fulfilling its duties as a member of the U.N. Security Council. "What is sure is that China has the capability to influence North Korea, and China has the responsibility to engage in the process," Yoon said, adding that the country should make its "best efforts" to influence the denuclearization of North Korea.     Transitions — PATRICK LARGE is joining American Defense International. He most recently was chief of staff for Rep. STEVEN PALAZZO (R-Miss.), and is a CHARLES BOUSTANY and JOHN SULLIVAN alum. — KURT SANGER is joining Batten, a digital marketplace platform for security solutions, as a cybersecurity adviser. He previously worked as deputy general counsel with U.S. Cyber Command and has served 23 years in the Marine Corps. — PRESTON FEINBERG is the new Air Force/F-35 Operations lead at Lockheed Martin Government Affairs. He was previously LMGA's senior government affairs analyst working on Air Force/Air Mobility programs. — GEOFFREY GREEN has been named executive vice president of government and external affairs at Bollinger Shipyards, where he will oversee all state and federal government relations, community relations, communications and marketing activities. He previously served as vice president for government affairs for Bollinger. — R.C. HAMMOND is joining Mercury as a managing director in its Washington office. He was a vice president at CounterPoint Strategies, and before that a senior adviser at the State Department. What to Read — DAMIAN BOESELAGER and DMYTRO NATALUKHA, POLITICO: Sanction pro-war Russian parties — U.S. Department of Defense: Military and Security Developments involving the People's Republic of China — JAMES STAVRIDIS, Bloomberg News: Putin Will Carpet-Bomb Ukraine Unless the West Acts Tomorrow Today — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 7:30 a.m.: "The Alliance in Turbulent Times" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8 a.m.: "The Politics of Policy: Japan's Road Ahead on National Security and Economic Strategy" — The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 10 a.m.: "Future digital environment as it relates to air and space power" — The Atlantic Council, 10:30 a.m.: "Tools for our Time: Economic Statecraft Since Russia's Invasion" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who we suspect is building a secret editing garrison. And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who always tells us where her troops are. A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today. Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward   Follow us

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