Could this number sway Biden’s climate decisions?

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Mar 09, 2023 View in browser   By Arianna Skibell Presented by Climate activists hold a demonstration to urge President Joe Biden to reject the Willow project at the Department of the Interior. | Jemal Countess/Getty Images The Interior Department’s upcoming decision on an oil project in Alaska’s North Slope could test whether a newly updated federal climate tool has any teeth. The tool is called the social cost of carbon. It’s a metric the government uses to determine the social and economic damage associated with every ton of planet-warming pollution produced.  The current figure estimates that every metric ton of greenhouse gas emissions creates $51 in economic damage. The White House is raising that figure to $190 a ton, a price tag designed to make it much harder to justify fossil fuel projects and easier to defend tightened pollution limits. Under the new metric, the estimated climate damage from the Willow oil project in Alaska would jump to $79 billion from $19.8 billion, according to an analysis by the environmental group Friends of the Earth. Those climate costs far outweigh the project’s projected revenue of up to $17 billion. But the Biden administration could approve the massive oil field anyway. The project has, after all, garnered support from all three lawmakers in Alaska’s bipartisan congressional delegation. The situation highlights a fundamental concern climate advocates have with the social cost of carbon. It may not work, writes POLITICO’s E&E News reporter Jean Chemnick. For one, there is nothing binding about it. Many laws require federal agencies to weigh the costs and benefits of new rules, but the laws don’t mandate that agencies base their decisions off the results of those analyses. Under the Obama administration, the social cost of carbon was largely sidelined, according to a 2016 study by the Electric Power Research Institute. The new, higher cost estimate is intended to shift that dynamic, making climate impacts hard to ignore. But the effect may be blunted by other problems with the way federal agencies conduct regulatory analyses. For example, agencies are inconsistent in how they compare benefits and costs and how they account for emissions that occur outside the scope of an analysis, said Steven Rose, a principal research economist at EPRI. “It’s not just a matter of ‘change the value and the whole storyline changes,’” he told Jean. “We really need to address these other issues as well to make sure that we’re generating reliable insights from the benefit and cost calculations themselves.”   It's Thursday— thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Arianna Skibell. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to askibell@eenews.net. A message from bp: Through our acquisition of Archaea energy, bp owns operating facilities in over 20 states that process methane captured from decomposing waste to produce renewable natural gas (RNG) for the US transportation sector. See how we are advocating for good policy to help us go further, faster.   Listen to today’s POLITICO Energy podcast Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Matt Daily breaks down why the oil industry is showing increasing interest in low-carbon technology. Budget time President Joe Biden talks to reporters at the Capitol in Washington on March 2. | AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite President Joe Biden unveiled a sweeping $6.8 trillion budget plan Thursday that would increase federal spending on climate and clean energy programs while boosting pay for federal workers, writes Robin Bravender. The White House’s budget proposal for fiscal 2024 aims to funnel more cash into the administration’s key policy priorities, including efforts to slash greenhouse gas emissions and promote renewable energy. To increase revenue, the president wants to increase taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals and end tax subsidies for oil and gas companies. Of course, Biden’s annual spending wish list is just that — a wish list. The White House will ultimately hash out a final compromise on federal spending with Congress, a prospect that’s more contentious now that Republicans have assumed control of the House.   A message from bp:   Power Centers Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm. | Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Photo Having it both ways? The Biden administration’s seemingly contradictory energy and climate strategy was on full display at the CERAWeek energy conference: try to pivot away from fossil fuels, but promote them for now, writes Brian Dabbs. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm faced that paradox as she addressed energy leaders and insiders gathered in a hotel ballroom, praising the uptick in U.S. oil and gas exports during Russia’s war in Ukraine while touting a clean energy shift. The Manchin Show: Limbo edition Sen. Joe Manchin has so far this week turned his back on two of Biden’s nominees, while he refuses to formally withdraw support for a third pick about whom he has “serious concerns,” writes Emma Dumain. The West Virginia Democrat’s insistence on keeping Laura Daniel-Davis in limbo — even as he publicly casts doubt about her future — is baffling and infuriating to her allies, who have been waiting since June 2021 for her to be confirmed as assistant Interior secretary for land and minerals management. Russia strikes Russia on Thursday launched a massive attack against Ukraine, using kamikaze drones and a barrage of missiles, in the first major assault against Ukrainian energy and civil infrastructure in weeks, write Veronika Melkozerova and Gabriel Gavin. Authorities in several regions across the Ukraine reported casualties, damage and emergency power shutdowns. In Other News Guilty: Former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and ex-Ohio GOP Chair Matt Borges were convicted in a $60 million bribery scheme involving two nuclear power plants. Off the farm: Farmers are calling on Congress to include climate action in the upcoming farm bill.   DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID.     Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. Firefighters prepare as a bush fire approaches the outskirts of Bargo, Australia, on Dec. 21, 2019. | David Gray/Getty Images New research suggests that certain types of organic compounds released in wildfire smoke are enlarging the infamous Antarctic ozone hole. Biden relaunched a fight against the oil and gas industry's tax incentives by proposing to cut tens of billions of dollars in federal subsidies as part of his fiscal 2024 budget request. Installations of U.S. solar projects dropped last year by 16 percent, according to a new industry report that blames the decline on an ongoing tariff probe by the Commerce Department. That's it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.   A message from bp: We are proud of our 150-year history in the United States, and we’re committed to America for the long-term as we transform our company in line with our ambition to reach net zero emissions by 2050 or sooner, and help the world get there too. bp is a top energy investor in the US: · Over $130 billion invested here since 2005 · 245,000 jobs supported across the country · $60 billion added by our businesses to the national economy in 2021 · Over $100 million donated to community programs over the past five years · Working to deliver the energy America needs today while developing lower carbon alternatives See how we are advocating for good policy to help us go further, faster.     LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.       Follow us on Twitter Arianna Skibell @ariannaskibell   Follow us

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