The world’s mounting nuclear problems

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Mar 29, 2023 View in browser   By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Sunday he would move tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. | Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP With help from Connor O’Brien, Daniel Lippman, Lara Seligman and Nahal Toosi Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt There are aggregating nuclear concerns in multiple corners of the globe, and it’s unclear how — or if — the Biden administration can deal with them all. Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN announced Sunday he would move tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. While Putin has made multiple nuclear threats throughout the invasion of Ukraine and not followed through on them, U.S. officials are still tracking the potential transfer closely. Meanwhile, the Kremlin won’t notify the U.S. of any upcoming missile tests, increasing the chances of a miscalculation. China is getting uranium from Russia for fast-breed reactors, which the Pentagon openly assesses is for military purposes. “Breeder reactors are plutonium, and plutonium is for weapons,” Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy JOHN PLUMB said this month. North Korea is acting more North Korea-y of late, launching intercontinental ballistic missiles and announcing an expansion of nuclear-materials production. According to South Korea’s Defense Ministry, Pyongyang’s plutonium stockpile is at 154 pounds this year, up from 44 pounds in 2020. And lately, the administration highlights that Iran could produce enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb in 12 days. If Ayatollah ALI KHAMENEI decides his nation should make a nuke — U.S. officials assess that hasn’t happened — then it would only take “months” to complete the endeavor, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY has repeated in congressional hearings this week. No obvious solutions arise for any of these problems. Russia will continue to threaten nuclear use as long as the West supports Ukraine. China will ramp up plutonium production and reprocessing to grow its arsenal, a trajectory that’s unlikely to change as Beijing weighs a force takeover of Taiwan and the U.S. and its allies beef up their military presence in the Indo-Pacific. North Korea won’t accept the administration’s offer for talks about anything, anytime without preconditions. In the meantime, NSC spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said the U.S. has “devoted more intelligence capabilities to the region” to track Pyongyang’s progress. And Iran has shown no willingness to rejoin the nuclear deal that DONALD TRUMP tore up, leaving the administration with little to no diplomatic options to reverse the timeline. “We cannot afford to be complacent about Iran's nuclear advances and that a policy aimed at avoiding a crisis could end up provoking one,” said HENRY ROME of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. U.S. officials tell NatSec Daily that, generally, the administration doesn’t see any of these issues as a crisis. They are each individual nuisances, even if in these cases the situation has worsened. Those four countries have "all exacerbated pre-existing concern concerns regarding their nuclear activities," a senior administration said on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters. "There's no sort of debate to be had in terms of what those countries' activities are and what they mean for nuclear non-proliferation." But, the official said, the administration has been working in public and private fora to address the downward-trending situation diplomatically while modernizing the American nuclear arsenal.   NEW PRODUCT UPDATE - POLITICO's China Watcher now hits inboxes twice weekly (Tuesday & Thursday). POLITICO's EU-China Correspondent Stuart Lau will be writing this expanded newsletter together with our colleague Phelim Kine from across the Atlantic in Washington. We’re living in a world where geopolitics are shaped and reshaped in Brussels, Washington, and Beijing — China Watcher will attempt to decode these global relationships to give our readers a full picture of the world’s diplomatic relations with China. Sign up to China Watcher     The Inbox BIDEN POKES BIBI: Biden said Israel had gotten itself into “a difficult spot” with its plan to overhaul the judiciary and that he hoped Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU “walks away from it,” our own JONATHAN LEMIRE and NAHAL TOOSI report. Netanyahu didn’t concede, releasing a rather defiant statement indicating he would press ahead with some form of judicial change and that Israel “makes its decisions by the will of its people and not based on pressures from abroad, including from the best of friends.” Inside the White House, there’s a sense that the Netanyahu-led far-right coalition now governing the once-stable democracy in the Middle East has authoritarian leanings. Those concerns have deepened as Washington tries to hold together a democratic alliance against dictatorships in places including Russia, China and Iran. BAKHMUT CANNOT FALL: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY warned that if Bakhmut falls, Russia could “sell this victory” to the West, China and Iran in an effort to secure a peace plan that’s unfavorable to Ukraine. “If he will feel some blood — smell that we are weak — he will push, push, push,” Zelenskyy, said of Putin, according to the Associated Press’ JULIE PACE and HANNA ARHIROVA. During the interview, Zelenskyy also extended an invitation to Chinese President XI JINPING to visit Ukraine, following his recent three-day trip to Moscow. It was thought that Xi might call the Ukrainian leader during the visit as part of China’s alleged role in peace negotiations, but that never happened: “I want to speak with him,” Zelenskyy said. His comments came as Ukraine hit targets far behind the frontline, striking a railway depot and knocking out power in the Russian-held city of Melitopol on Wednesday, Reuters’ OLENA HARMASH reports. The same day, Russia deployed mobile launchers in Siberia, demonstrating the nation’s nuclear capabilities, the Associated Press’ VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV reports. BEIJING’S THREAT: China warned of “resolute countermeasures” over Taiwan President TSAI ING-WEN’s upcoming visit to the United States, the Associated Press reports. As Tsai prepares for her 10-day tour of the Americas, where she’ll stop in New York and Los Angeles, the United States shouldn’t arrange her transit or meetings with American officials, said ZHU FENGLIAN, a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office. The threat came days after a private phone call between White House national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and China’s top diplomat WANG YI on Friday. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye. A message from Lockheed Martin: Innovating at hypersonic speed. Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more.   2024 PENCE SLAMS BIDEN ON UKRAINE: Former Vice President MIKE PENCE criticized the Biden administration for its “slow” delivery of lethal aid to Ukraine, saying the U.S. must provide Kyiv with any necessary supplies to win the war. “I believe, in this moment, it's absolutely essential to give Ukraine what they need," Pence, a likely 2024 GOP contender, told Newsmax’s GRETA VAN SUSTEREN Tuesday night. “President Biden says we're there as long as it takes, but, Greta, with American leadership, it shouldn't take that long.” Pence’s stance is a stark contrast to Trump and Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ positions, as they’ve both been critical of the amount of aid sent to Ukraine and advocate for limiting support. The former VP’s position aligns more with other GOP contenders like NIKKI HALEY, who has already declared her candidacy. Keystrokes CARTEL CRACKDOWN: A bipartisan group of House members will introduce legislation intended to stop criminal cartels from using social media platforms to recruit drivers for human smuggling operations, our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report. The Combating Cartels on Social Media Act, introduced in the Senate last year and reintroduced there in January, would require the Department of Homeland Security to create a program to enable social media companies to report cartel recruitment activities within the U.S. to DHS. It would also require DHS to put together a strategy to fight these threats on social media that would help facilitate cooperation between the agency and state and local authorities, along with increasing intelligence sharing. “We need to make sure that technology companies are punishing — not ignoring — these recruitment tactics on their platforms,” Rep. ABIGAIL SPANBERGER (D-Va.) told Morning Cybersecurity. The Complex SHELL GAME: The U.S plans to double monthly production of 155 mm artillery shells by the end of this year to 24,000 with the goal of a sixfold increase within five years, per Army Undersecretary GABE CAMARILLO. Camarillo’s comments, reported by Defense One’s SAM SKOVE, are a sign the administration is boosting weapons production to both help Ukraine and also replace what’s been provided. The Pentagon will spend roughly $1.45 billion to improve facilities so that they can pump out more shells. Camarillo added that production of Javelin missiles will more than double to 330 a month and Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems production will double to 41 a month. “Overall, the U.S. is investing over $2 billion this year in industrial facilities used to manufacture weapons and ammunition,” Skove wrote.   JOIN POLITICO ON 4/5 FOR THE 2023 RECAST POWER LIST: America’s demographics and power dynamics are changing — and POLITICO is recasting how it covers the intersection of race, identity, politics and policy. Join us for a conversation on the themes of the 2023 Recast Power List that will examine America’s decision-making tables, who gets to sit at them, and the challenges that still need to be addressed. REGISTER HERE.     On the Hill AUMF REPEAL: The Senate voted to repeal the 1991 and 2002 Iraq authorizations for the use of military force by a 66-30 vote. The measure must still pass the House, where its fate remains uncertain as Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY may not bring it up for a vote any time soon. Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.), a cosponsor of the repeal bill alongside Sen. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.), has previously said one option is passing the repeal as part of this year’s National Defense Authorization Act. NO ARMS TO HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSERS: The top two Democrats on the foreign policy committee in both chambers introduced a bill that would prevent arms sales to human rights abusers. The Safeguarding Human Rights in Arms Exports Act, put forward by SFRC Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) and HFAC ranking member GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.), would give Congress greater authorities to block arms transfers that contribute to or facilitate human rights abuses by customer nations. “This legislation requires the U.S. to evaluate the human rights records of potential buyers of U.S. arms and prevents sales to governments responsible for violating human rights law,” Meeks said in a statement. The bill has only been introduced by Democrats, so it’s unclear if enough Republicans will come out in support of the measure. NO WESTERN WARPLANES FOR UKRAINE: Pentagon policy chief COLIN KAHL reiterated to senators pressing the case for sending F-16 jets to Ukraine that Western aircraft aren't anywhere near the top of Kyiv's priority list, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in. "Ukrainian counterparts have informed us that combat aircraft is a priority, but it is not one of their highest priorities," Kahl wrote in a letter to Sen. MARK KELLY (D-Ariz.). "Combat aircraft is currently Ukraine's seventh priority capability area." The letter came in response to a bipartisan request from eight senators, led by Kelly, for details on what it would take to send F-16s to Ukraine. On top of potentially yearslong timelines for delivering fighters, Kahl cautioned that Western fighters would require considerable cash to maintain, and could total over $1 billion over three years depending on how many aircraft are provided and in what condition. "If the United States were to support these costs, it would likely consume a large portion of the remaining U.S. security assistance authority and funding available to the department," Kahl wrote. Broadsides PUMP THE BRAKES ON AI: Several top tech leaders and AI experts, including ELON MUSK and STEVE WOZNIAK, urged artificial intelligence labs to pause the development of increasingly advanced new software. In an open letter, the group writes that "powerful AI systems should be developed only once we are confident that their effects will be positive and their risks will be manageable.” All labs should stop developing technology stronger than GPT-4, the language model created by OpenAI, for at least six months, they write. The letter outlined possible risks to society as AI becomes competitive with human tasks, potentially causing economic and political disruptions. The group also called on developers to work with lawmakers and regulatory authorities to govern the software.     Transitions — South Korea’s national security adviser KIM SUNG-HAN has offered to resign partly so he can return to academia. CHO TAE-YONG, the ROK’s ambassador to the U.S., will take over the role on March 30. — SAM BUCHAN is now senior director at Equinox Global Solutions. He most recently was principal at Anabasis Strategies and is a Trump NSC and Energy Department alum. What to Read — DAN LEAF, The New York Times: I Know How Nuclear War Is Waged, So I’m Calling for Peace With North Korea — JACK WATLING, OLEKSANDR DANYLYUK and NICK REYNOLDS, Royal United Services Institute: Preliminary Lessons from Russia’s Unconventional Operations During the Russo-Ukrainian War, February 2022–February 2023 — ROBERT STORCH, DIANA SHAW and NICOLE ANGARELLA: Joint Oversight of the Ukraine Response Tomorrow Today — House Armed Services Committee, 8:30 a.m.: Cyberspace Operations: Conflict in the 21st Century — Nextgov, 8:30 a.m.: Cyber Defenders — The United States Institute of Peace, 9 a.m.: Book discussion on “The Long Reckoning: A Story of War, Peace, and Redemption in Vietnam” — The Henry L. Stimson Center,  9:30 a.m.: If We Don't Sell: What Happens When States are Cut Off from U.S. Arms? — The Center for a New American Security, 9:30 a.m.: India-China Border Tensions and U.S. Strategy in the Indo-Pacific — The Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: The Posture of the Army in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2024 and the Future Years Defense Program — The Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: Russia's Aggression Against Ukraine and the International Legal Order — The Arab Center, 10 a.m.: The Global Significance of the China-Brokered Saudi-Iran Deal — The Heritage Foundation, 12:30 p.m.: Restoring the Military's Focus on Warfighting — The National Review Institute, 1 p.m.: 2023 Ideas Summit — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1:30 p.m.: The Future of AUKUS — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan — The Center for a New American Security, 3 p.m.: The Biden Administration's Indo-Pacific Strategy Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who can always smell when we are weak. We also thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, who always manages all the risks. A message from Lockheed Martin: Innovating at hypersonic speed. Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward   Follow us

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