Who’ll be Biden’s 2024 pollster?

Presented by TikTok: The power players, latest policy developments, and intriguing whispers percolating inside the West Wing.

Mar 09, 2023 View in browser   By Eli Stokols and Lauren Egan Presented by TikTok Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration. With help from Myah Ward.   Send tips | Subscribe here| Email Eli | Email Lauren When JOE BIDEN convened his first meetings of close advisers about a possible presidential run in 2019, there was one pollster in the group: JOHN ANZALONE. And when the campaign eventually took shape, Anzalone and CELINDA LAKE led a team of about five pollsters helping the eventual Democratic nominee track key states and hone his approach. But the polling group for Biden’s nascent reelection campaign could be different. Anzalone, whose Twitter bio lists Biden as his top client and who often gets identified in news stories as “Biden’s pollster,” has yet to hear from the president’s top aides about a campaign role this time around — in fact, none of Biden’s 2020 pollsters have, according to three people familiar with conversations on the matter. The lack of clarity reflects a campaign-in-waiting that’s not yet fully hashed out, and Anzalone could still end up with a significant piece of the polling portfolio in 2024. But it’s clear that Biden and Democrats have broadened their approach to research over his first two years in office. They now rely on a wider network of pollsters — a trend likely to continue within the president’s campaign operation as it takes shape. “The truth is: there is no singular ‘Biden pollster,’” a senior Biden aide said. The fundraising reports for the Democratic National Committee, which covers the tab for the White House’s polling operations, also show an increasing diversification of the party’s research operation. Since the beginning of 2022, the lion’s share of the DNC’s polling and research expenditures have gone to two firms: DAVID BINDER Research, headed by the San Francisco-based pollster who specializes in focus groups, and OpenLabs, a data analysis firm. Both earned just under $1 million from the DNC in 2022-23, according to the party’s public finance reports. West Wing Playbook readers may recall this May 2021 edition detailing how data wunderkind DAVID SHOR had gotten the ear of the Biden White House. Shor found a home as OpenLabs’ data analyst after being fired by Civis Analytics for his tweets stating that the demonstrations sparked by George Floyd’s murder could hurt Democrats politically. However controversial he remains with the party’s progressive wing, Shor’s conclusions about Democratic messaging — specifically, that anti-police rhetoric and immigration as an issue were weak points for the party — have been reflected in Biden’s approach. OpenLabs’ could be utilized during the 2024 campaign cycle by Future Forward, which Biden’s team has designated as the main independent expenditure group focusing on television ads, according to people familiar with the plans. The other polling project that deeply influenced Biden’s approach to the 2022 midterms came from the Center of American Progress Action Fund. The joint venture by GEOFFREY GARIN, the president of Hart Research, and Global Strategy Group’s JEFREY POLLACK, was the basis for Biden’s rhetorical contrast with “MAGA Republicans.” It called for defining the GOP by its most extreme members — and their anti-democratic, sometimes violent actions — while distinguishing them from other, less Trump-beholden Republicans more willing to work with Democrats. ANITA DUNN, Biden’s senior adviser, had worked on the project while she was in the private sector and, upon returning to the White House last spring, was a big proponent of incorporating its findings into the president’s messaging. During the 2022 cycle, the DNC also continued to utilize Lake, who presented findings in late summer from a focus group on messaging around abortion and the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, as well as research about seniors. Anzalone, meanwhile, did most of his work for Building Back Together, the main super PAC supporting the administration’s policy agenda. That organization’s spending is more opaque, although we did write in November about its 2021 tax filing. Other 2020 Biden campaign pollsters, including JOHN DELLA VOLPE, who focuses on younger voters, and SILAS LEE, whose research focused on Black voters, have gotten additional work from the DNC in the last year. PATRICK BONSIGNORE, CORNELL BELCHER and other Democrats have also done polling work for the DNC over the last two years. According to people familiar with discussions about Biden’s eventual campaign, the plan is to continue to utilize an array of Democratic research firms in sharpening the president’s message and determining how to engage with key constituencies. What’s still up in the air is where the polling pieces will fit: who winds up inside the campaign, and who’s working for the constellation of outside groups backing Biden. MESSAGE US — Are you LEIDY PEREZ-DAVIS, special assistant to the president for immigration? We want to hear from you. And we’ll keep you anonymous! Email us at westwingtips@politico.com. Did someone forward this email to you? Subscribe here!    A message from TikTok: To ensure everyone feels safe to freely express themselves, TikTok has made it easy to control many aspects of the in-app experience. If interactions feel unsafe, these can be blocked with just a few taps. To keep comments positive, select keywords can be filtered out. And if anyone sees something they think violates Community Guidelines, it can be instantly reported to the TikTok team who'll take appropriate action. Learn more at http://tiktok.com/safety.   POTUS PUZZLER This one’s from Myah. Which president sold his personal book collection to the Library of Congress after it was burned by the British in 1814? (Answer at the bottom.)   LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.     The Oval OH, NO HE DIDN’T: PAUL VALLAS, one of two Chicago mayoral candidates who advanced to a run-off, mocked both Biden and former President BARACK OBAMA during appearances on a conservative radio station a year ago, our CHRIS CADELAGO and SHIA KAPOS scooped Thursday. In archived Facebook Live videos of his appearances on Chicago’s Morning Answer program, Vallas mocked the Obamas for “living in Martha’s Vineyard” and suggested that Biden might not be aware of what’s happening in his own administration. Vallas’ opponent, fellow Democrat BRANDON JOHNSON, has been trying to paint him as too conservative. Biden, for now, does not did seem likely to make an endorsement in the race, although Rep. JAMES CLYBURN (R-S.C.), a close White House ally, backed Johnson this week. The election is also something of a factor in the president’s looming decision on a host city for next year’s DNC convention, a race between Chicago, Atlanta and possibly New York City. BUDGET DAY: Biden traveled to Philadelphia on Thursday to unveil his third budget as president. His plan to cut the deficit by $3 trillion and shore up Medicare by raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans and corporations has no chance of passing Congress. But it serves as an early blueprint for his potential reelection campaign, our CAITLIN EMMA and ADAM CANCRYN report. In a nearly hour-long speech, Biden ticked through his proposal while making clear that it was now on Republicans to come up with their own plan. “I’m willing to meet with the [House] speaker anytime — tomorrow if he has his budget. Lay it down, tell me what you want to do,” he said. WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: This piece from Axios’ HAN NICHOLS about how Biden will use the new budget to push Republicans to cap insulin at $35 a month. “By putting Biden's insulin cap at the center of his budget rollout, the White House is previewing the populist tone that will course throughout his expected re-election campaign,” Nichols writes. The piece was shared on Twitter by seemingly everyone who works in the White House, including infrastructure implementation coordinator MITCH LANDRIEU, deputy communications director KATE BERNER, assistant press secretary KEVIN MUNOZ and senior adviser for communications to the National Economic Council, JESSE LEE. WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN’T WANT YOU TO READ: This piece from CNN’s PAULA REID and ZACHARY COHEN about how Biden’s former executive assistant, KATHY CHUNG, has scheduled an interview with the House Oversight Committee next month. It’s part of a Hill investigation into classified documents found in Biden’s personal residence and office. “Chung also has recently handed over files related to the movement of documents when then-Vice President Biden left office and how they ended up at the Penn Biden Center, his private think tank office, according to one of the sources familiar with the matter,” write Reid and Cohen. OH CANADA: The president and first lady will travel to Ottawa, Canada, on March 23 to “reaffirm the United States’ commitment to the U.S.-Canada partnership and promote our shared security, shared prosperity, and shared values,” press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE said in a statement. DOUG-E AT SXSW: In addition to Education Secretary MIGUEL CARDONA, second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will appear on Day One of SXSW in Austin. Emhoff will take part in “a speaker’s session in which he will be interviewed about his focus on gender equity and promoting rights and opportunities for women and girls,” according to MARIA RECIO of the Austin-American Statesman. Cardona, prior to a festival event on public-private partnerships, plans to visit a local middle school to talk with parents about accessibility issues for multilingual students. THE BUREAUCRATS JUST IN TIME FOR TAX DAY: The Senate on Thursday voted 54-42 to confirm DANNY WERFEL, Biden’s pick to head the IRS. But as Democrats look to him to manage the agency’s $80 billion overhaul, Republicans have promised to summon Werfel back before the tax committee to grill him on what they view as the agency’s overfunding. Our BENJAMIN GUGGENHEIM has more. BETTER THAN A PET ROCK: Outgoing Labor Secretary MARTY WALSH paid “$1,467 to purchase the Cabinet chair he sat in during meetings at the White House to take with him as a souvenir,” according to the Boston Globe’s JIM PUZZANGHERA. Walsh is also “deciding the details of his official portrait, which one day will hang with those of previous Labor Department secretaries in the agency’s headquarters.” PERSONNEL MOVES: JEN DASKAL is joining the National Security Council to serve as principal deputy NSC legal adviser, associate counsel to the president and special assistant to the president, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. She most recently was deputy general counsel and acting general counsel at DHS.   A message from TikTok:   Agenda Setting IT’S COMPLICATED: White House senior adviser JOHN PODESTA was at the American Council on Renewable Energy conference Thursday, where he conceded that U.S. efforts to build domestic manufacturing for clean energy technologies will include participation by Chinese companies. But he said the United States will need to balance that with concerns over reliability and energy security, our KELSEY TAMBORRINO reports for Pro. His comments come as the U.S. seeks to expand its domestic manufacturing footprint across green energy technologies, like solar energy and electric vehicle batteries, backed by historic investments from the Inflation Reduction Act. And Podesta spoke as Republicans take aim at those investments for their reliance on Chinese companies. EYEING CHINA: Alongside Biden’s budget request for next year, the Pentagon will submit a new $15.3 billion plan to fund Pacific forces, according to an unclassified version of the report obtained by our LARA SELIGMAN and LEE HUDSON. That’s more than twice what DoD asked for last year, $6.1 billion, and a significant boost from what Congress authorized, $11.5 billion. The money will go toward buying missile defense systems, radars and space sensors, as well as increasing exercises and training. The move signals the Biden administration’s increasing sense of urgency toward countering China’s aggressive behavior in the region. What We're Reading A Startling Document Predicted Jan. 6. Democrats Are Missing Its Other Warnings. (Politico’s Alex Burns) The Topic Biden Keeps Dodging (The Atlantic’s Ronald Brownstein) TikTok hires Biden-connected firm as it finds itself under D.C.’s microscope (Politico’s Daniel Lippman)   DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID.     POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER After the British set fire to the nation’s Capitol and the Library of Congress in 1814, THOMAS JEFFERSON, who had retired to Monticello, offered to sell his personal books to replace the destroyed collection. Jefferson had acquired the largest personal collection of books in the U.S., and said: “I do not know that it contains any branch of science which Congress would wish to exclude from their collection; there is, in fact, no subject to which a Member of Congress may not have occasion to refer.” A CALL OUT — Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents with a citation and we may feature it. Edited by Eun Kyung Kim and Sam Stein.   A message from TikTok: To ensure everyone feels safe to freely express themselves, TikTok has made it easy to control many aspects of the in-app experience. If interactions with another person feel unsafe, these can be blocked with just a few simple taps. To keep the comments positive, certain keywords may be selected and the comments that contain them will be automatically removed. And if a video, comment, livestream or even direct message potentially violates Community Guidelines, anyone can report it to the TikTok team who will swiftly take appropriate action. It’s all part of TikTok’s commitment to creating a positive experience for everyone. Learn more at http://tiktok.com/safety.     Follow us on Twitter Eli Stokols @EliStokols Lauren Egan @Lauren_V_Egan Allie Bice @alliebice   Follow us

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