| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | |  Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (right) welcomes U.S. President Joe Biden to Al-Salam Palace in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on July 15, 2022. | Bandar Aljaloud/Saudi Royal Palace via AP Photo | With help from Nahal Toosi, Connor O’Brien and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The Biden administration just can’t quit Saudi Arabia. After Riyadh-led OPEC+ cut oil production last year, a move that would bulge Russia’s wallet, the administration promised to reevaluate the state of the U.S.-Saudi relationship. President JOE BIDEN even threatened “consequences” for the kingdom, a signal that the decadeslong cozy relationship was poised for a downgrade. Many months later, there haven’t been any consequences or shifts. CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS even made an unannounced visit to Saudi this week to reaffirm close intelligence ties between Washington and Riyadh. The reason is that the administration never actually conducted a formal review, per multiple U.S. officials NatSec Daily spoke to. There were numerous interagency discussions and sensitive diplomatic conversations during the course of the normal policymaking process. But there was neither a determined start to the reevaluation, nor will there be an end. It’s an ongoing, amorphous conversation. That helps explain why National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY continuously says the administration won’t provide a document that details the results of the review, because there is no such document. Unlike when Biden outlined the Yemen policy review conclusions, or when the White House organized a background call about a new North Korea policy, there won’t be such an event for the non-review review of Saudi Arabia. The appetite for the reprimands Biden previewed has all but dissipated — since Saudi Arabia is playing nice. Gas prices have come down about $1.50 since their peak last summer; the truce in Yemen has lasted a year; Riyadh will pay $37 billion for Boeing aircraft; and the kingdom in February announced $400 million in humanitarian aid for Ukraine. Why, then, announce punishments when Saudi is meeting U.S. national security interests? “The so-called review took place without a lot of fanfare because it was a ‘political’ review,” a GOP congressional aide told NatSec Daily who, like others, was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive government deliberations. In other words, the administration said it was going to dig into U.S.-Saudi relations because Washington was embarrassed by the OPEC+ decision. Yet some officials will say there have been consequences. They point to Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, announcing his opposition to further arms sales and security cooperation to Riyadh. The senator said he’d reconsider his stance if the kingdom changed its position on the war in Ukraine. That, the officials insist, may be why the kingdom will provide millions in humanitarian aid. None of this will satisfy critics of the U.S.-Saudi relationship who fear that Riyadh — with its OPEC+ announcements, coziness with China and murder of JAMAL KHASHOGGI — will continue to poke Washington in the eye time and time again. “If that's the message they're sending us, then I think we need to listen,” said Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), who leads the SFRC’s Middle East panel and has long criticized the kingdom. But, the lawmaker continued, “the consensus in Washington will not budge: The United States and Saudi Arabia need to be attached at the hip no matter Saudi Arabia's conduct and no matter the shifting, weakening imperative for the United States to be so involved in the Middle East.”
| | | NO PEACE IN THE MIDEAST: Israel and its neighbors are once again caught in a maelstrom of foreseeable violence, one that U.S. officials have for weeks been trying to avoid. Here are the basics and what our own NAHAL TOOSI is hearing: — Israel launched airstrikes in southern Lebanon and Gaza early Friday after rockets were fired at the nation from those areas, where Palestinian and other militants operate. The exchange followed violence earlier this week at the Al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem, where Israeli security forces carried out a raid against Palestinians barricaded in the holy site. Another flashpoint came in the West Bank, where a suspected Palestinian shooting Friday killed two Israelis. As we went to publish, reports emerged of a shooting and vehicle ramming attack in Tel Aviv. — U.S. officials have been talking to the Israelis, Palestinians and other regional players for months hoping to avoid this scenario, which comes amid the overlap of three religious events: Ramadan, Passover and, to a lesser degree, Easter. The Americans have even run table-top exercises in preparation for outbursts of violence, a U.S. official familiar with the issue said, having been granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. — There are signs the main players want to avoid further escalation. Gaza militants didn’t fire too deep into Israeli territory, for instance. Veteran U.S. Middle East hand DENNIS ROSS predicts: “The Israelis will want to demonstrate that no one can attack Israel with impunity even as they seek to avoid an escalation in either Gaza and Lebanon. On the latter, Israel will try to keep the focus on Hamas cells in Lebanon and not Hezbollah,” the Iran-backed Lebanese Shia militant group. All of this comes amid Israeli fury with Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and his right-wing government’s efforts to overhaul the country’s judiciary. In the face of massive protests and strikes (as well as U.S. displeasure), Netanyahu has put the overhaul on hold. Some analysts, such as SHIRA EFRON, say the current violence could boost Netanyahu. “The news no longer shows hundreds of thousands of Israelis on the streets fighting for democracy, but the classic image of Israel fighting its adversaries — and that is a very useful distraction,” she said. But if the violence spirals further, it may make Israelis think Netanyahu has truly lost control. The bottom line? We’re not out of the woods yet. We’ve barely just walked in. BIGGER THAN KNOWN: A tranche of leaked documents that detail plans about Ukraine’s spring military offensive circulated online as early as March — a month earlier than previously reported, according to researchers with Bellingcat and a review of social media postings. The batch includes more pages than originally known and also outlines sensitive information about other global hotspots, Alex reports alongside our own LARA SELIGMAN, ERIN BANCO and PAUL McLEARY. The Ukraine-specific documents, photographed and distributed on myriad social media sites, outline everything from Ukraine’s readiness and training capabilities to death tolls on the battlefield. They date from the end of February to the end of March — around the same time as senior American generals hosted the Ukrainian military at a U.S. base in Germany to wargame the spring operation. The materials that circulated in early March were uploaded on Discord, an encrypted messaging app. They appear to be photos of slide deck printouts that were folded up and then smoothed out again. They have since been posted on other social media websites, including Twitter and Telegram. It’s unclear who originally obtained the documents, who leaked them and the extent to which they’ve been altered. It’s also possible an even earlier version exists. A senior administration official, granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive intelligence matter, said President Joe Biden's team is "concerned" by the large document leak. "This could be a Russian disinformation operation,” the official continued, citing the manipulations to the documents. "Russia has a history of manipulating information for disinformation purposes.” The official wouldn't detail when the administration first became aware of the leak. IN HINDSIGHT: The State Department “could and should have” done more to prepare for the worst-case scenario in Afghanistan, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN told his staff during a call on Thursday. During the talk, which followed the release of the White House’s after-action report on the Afghanistan withdrawal, Blinken underscored how State wasn’t fully primed for the swift fall of Kabul and the Afghan government in 2021, Alex reported. “Even though there were things that we got right, things that we got wrong, things that we could do better, it’s really important to me that no matter what, this country knows and appreciates the fact that you all served with incredible dedication and incredible distinction,” Blinken said. Blinken’s decision to take some of the blame contrasts with the White House. The unclassified summary of the White House’s AAR essentially blamed the Trump administration and intelligence community. Neither Biden nor his immediate aides took responsibility. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the global national security and foreign policy scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring Sen. JONI ERNST (R-Iowa), who we interviewed Wednesday about her conversation with Taiwan’s president. During downtime, the SASC member enjoys a Busch Light — or “Busch Latte,” as her sibling says — out in her brother's acreage in southwest Iowa. Ernst and her family will be together near the chicken coop, “which is the hangout for all of us kids that grew up on farms in that area.” “We get together on the weekends and we hang out with my brother, my nephews, my sister in law, and all of our families get together and look for good, downhome fun. That's where you're going to find me,” Ernst told NatSec Daily. Cheers, senator! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @Lawrence_Ukenye and @reporterjoe.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | RAMASWAMY’S SELF-AWARENESS: GOP presidential candidate VIVEK RAMASWAMY knows that there’s some foreign policy issues that he would need to read up on before becoming commander in chief. “Being the leader of the free world means you need to be prepared for foreign policy challenges that arise from where you were least expecting them, right?” the 37-year-old tech entrepreneur told our own RYAN LIZZA on the Playbook Deep Dive podcast. For instance, he said he’s a bit rusty on relations with several African nations and some South American countries, but well-versed on issues with China and other major powers. “If I asked you who’s our most important ally in Sub-Saharan Africa?” Lizza asked. “I wouldn't have a great answer to that,” Ramaswamy replied. “That's exactly the kind of thing that I would expect to learn.”
| | ‘MALICIOUS’ CYBER ACTIVITIES: A Treasury Department report published Thursday highlighting North Korea's cyber operations to fuel its weapons program is worrying the U.S. and its allies in the Pacific, Reuters' SOO-HYANG CHOI and JU-MIN PARK report. Pyongyang has used decentralized finance, an area within the cryptocurrency market, to launder funds stolen by North Korean hackers. The regime stole more than $1.7 billion in cryptocurrency in 2022, according to a report from Chainalysis, a New York-based blockchain data firm. The findings come as the U.S. has participated in joint drills with South Korea and Japan in recent months following continued missile tests from Pyongyang. Last month, the regime unveiled an intercontinental ballistic missile it claims is capable of striking the U.S. mainland.
| | | | NEW PRODUCT UPDATE - POLITICO's China Watcher now hits inboxes twice weekly (Tuesday & Thursday). POLITICO's EU-China Correspondent Stuart Lau will be writing this expanded newsletter together with our colleague Phelim Kine from across the Atlantic in Washington. We’re living in a world where geopolitics are shaped and reshaped in Brussels, Washington, and Beijing — China Watcher will attempt to decode these global relationships to give our readers a full picture of the world’s diplomatic relations with China. Sign up to China Watcher | | | | | | | | SHIP SHAPE: A bipartisan group of shipbuilding boosters on Capitol Hill is embarking on a fresh push to increase the number of new ships the Navy buys and trim the number of vessels the services can scrap, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports (for Pros!). Pentagon and Navy officials caught flak in budget hearings last week over the administration’s plan to purchase nine ships, while retiring 11 hulls, resulting in a slight decline in the size of the fleet. Some lawmakers are already advocating that Congress step in to reverse course and add ships as part of annual defense policy and spending legislation, while barring the Navy from decommissioning some ships. With the current plan, “I just don’t see how we get to where we need to be,” said Rep. ROB WITTMAN (R-Va.), a shipbuilding advocate who was previously the top Republican on the House Armed Services Seapower panel.
| | RELEASE WSJ JOURNO: Russia formally charged Wall Street Journal journalist EVAN GERSHKOVICH with espionage hours after Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL called for his release, our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reports. Since his arrest last week, “Russian authorities have failed to present any credible evidence to justify their fabricated charges” of espionage, the leaders wrote in a joint statement, calling it a “wrongful detention.” Moscow has denied the U.S. embassy consular access to Gershkovich, the lawmakers wrote. That decision alone is against diplomatic norms and “likely in violation of international law.” Gershkovich was ordered to be detained until May, and a Russian court is scheduled to hear an appeal from his lawyers on April 18. ‘FULL ACCOUNTING’: Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) wants the Pentagon to detail the national security impacts of Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s (R-Ala.) holdup of military promotions over abortion access policies for troops, Connor reports. Warren, who chairs the Senate Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee, sought "a full accounting of which positions will go unfilled and the risks" to national security the standoff poses in a letter to Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN. "The American people deserve to know the impacts of these holds," Warren wrote. "I am committed to conducting vigorous oversight of military policy and decision-making, and I am concerned that these indiscriminate holds could impact military personnel around the world." Warren requested Austin provide a list of all military positions affected by Tuberville's objections as well as high-level posts that will be impacted in the coming months. She also seeks details of the effect of those holds on U.S. response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, efforts to deter China's aggression in the Indo-Pacific as well as impacts on cybersecurity and military medical readiness.
| | | | GO INSIDE THE 2023 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO is proud to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage, insider nuggets and unparalleled insights from the 2023 Global Conference, which will convene leaders in health, finance, politics, philanthropy and entertainment from April 30-May 3. This year’s theme, Advancing a Thriving World, will challenge and inspire attendees to lean into building an optimistic coalition capable of tackling the issues and inequities we collectively face. Don’t miss a thing — subscribe today for a front row seat. | | | | | | | | CHINA SANCTIONS: Beijing sanctioned several U.S. organizations as retaliation for Washington allowing Taiwanese President TSAI ING-WEN to visit with lawmakers earlier this week, the Associated Press’ HUIZHONG WU reports. The sanctioned organizations, which included the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and the Hudson Institute among others, were targeted for “providing a platform and convenience to Taiwan separatist activities,” China’s foreign ministry said. In an interview with German and French newspapers published Friday, Blinken reaffirmed Washington’s support for the “One China” policy while supporting Taiwan’s defense efforts. ‘We are equipping Taiwan with what it needs to defend itself against any form of aggression. We are taking that very seriously,” Blinken said in translated remarks.
| | | |   | | | | | — SAMUEL MILLER is now CTO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. He most recently was an IT specialist for network/security for DFC.
| | — H.A. HELLYER, POLITICO: Russia is waging a disinformation war in the Middle East — FREDERIC WEHREY, Foreign Policy: Why Isn’t the U.S. in Libya? — Editorial Board, The Wall Street Journal: Joe Biden Isn’t Sorry About His Afghanistan Withdrawal
| | — The Wilson Center, 12 p.m.: The Brazil 100 Conference: A Look Into Lula’s First 100 Days — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: A New Era in the U.S.-Philippines Alliance: A Discussion with Foreign Secretary ENRIQUE MANALO Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, though we’re conducting a review of her leadership. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who, after review, gets an A+ from us.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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