| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg, Lawrence Ukenye and Ari Hawkins | |  Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping, angered by the major shift, chooses to launch an invasion of the democratic, self-governing island to force reunification. How will the United States respond? | Kevin Frayer/Getty Images | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt It’s 2027. Taiwan’s leadership is considering declaring itself an independent country. Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING, angered by the major shift, chooses to launch an invasion of the democratic, self-governing island to force reunification. How will the United States respond? That’s what Republican and Democratic members of the House China Committee will decide tomorrow night during a tabletop exercise organized by the Center for a New American Security think tank. Starting at 7 p.m., the lawmakers will act as National Security Council advisers, deciding the best military, diplomatic and economic courses to take against China. CNAS’ BECCA WASSER and ANDREW METRICK will act as Beijing, aiming to thwart the panel members’ designs from inside the House Ways and Means Committee room. A move by either side will represent three days of the conflict. All this is happening because Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.), the committee chair, believes that TTXs — as tabletops are abbreviated — are as instructive for policy- and lawmakers as they are for military personnel. In March, he took part in a Taiwan-focused wargame for House Republicans in Orlando and has written about why elected officials should participate in more wargames. “It is time for Congress to pull up a chair and join [the Pentagon] at the table,” Gallagher wrote for War on the Rocks in 2020. Three weeks ago, committee staff from both parties reached out to CNAS to develop and run the game when Congress came back into session. CNAS agreed and modified a previous exercise with NBC News’ Meet the Press to fit the TTX within a roughly two-hour period, a compressed timeline for such an event. But Wasser said the TTX will focus on high-level issues, ultimately providing lawmakers with ideas about what issues need more consideration, hearings or anything else. It won’t delve deeply into tactical scenarios that would require a far longer game. “It’s experiential learning,” she told us. “It’s an important opportunity to help senior leaders to think through what can happen.” Last year, Gen. MARK MILLEY, the Joint Chiefs chair, said China wanted the military capability to invade Taiwan by 2027 but might not launch the operation. CIA Director BILL BURNS said in February that Xi and his military leadership “have doubts today about whether they could accomplish that invasion.” Taiwan is increasingly sounding the alarm. “Look at the military exercises, and also their rhetoric, they seem to be trying to get ready to launch a war against Taiwan,” Foreign Minister JOSEPH WU told CNN last week. But, in a show of confidence, Wu added “Chinese leaders will think twice before they decide to use force against Taiwan. And no matter whether it is 2025 or 2027 or even beyond, Taiwan simply needs to get ready.”
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Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more. | | | | | CONVOY ATTACKED IN SUDAN: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said a U.S. diplomatic convoy in Sudan was fired on in a “reckless” and “irresponsible” attack during the African nation’s ongoing violence, Matt reports. None of the Americans were injured, Blinken told reporters while speaking in Japan, emphasizing that the convoy was fired upon despite bearing diplomatic plates and a U.S. flag. During a call Tuesday morning, Blinken told Gen. ABDEL-FATTAH BURHAN, who leads Sudan’s military, and Gen. MOHAMED HAMDAN DAGALO, the commander of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, that the attack was “totally unacceptable.” Following the call, the warring generals agreed to a 24-hour ceasefire. While the incident is under investigation, initial reports show that the RSF was responsible for the attack, the SecState said. Click: Maxar collected satellite imagery providing more evidence that the fighting in Sudan is real and destructive. WSJ REPORTER APPEAL: A Russian court upheld Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH’s detention following an appeal by his lawyers nearly three weeks after he was detained on dubious espionage charges, the Journal’s ANN SIMMONS reports. The ruling bars Gershkovich from being moved from his current prison, put on house arrest or granted bail. He’s currently being held in pretrial detention at Lefortovo prison until May 29. The court’s decision came a day after Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN made a trip to two Ukrainian provinces to rally his troops on Monday ahead of Kyiv’s imminent counteroffensive, the Associated Press’ ADAM PEMBLE reports. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY also made a trip to the east to speak with troops and hand out awards on Tuesday. As Kyiv prepares to attack, at least one Ukrainian official has concerns. "If anything goes wrong, or it's not successful enough — and what is enough? — people will have all these excuses,” VADYM PRYSTAIKO, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, told Newsweek’s DAVID BRENNAN. “They will say they knew that was going to happen, and now we must get to the table and negotiate something." Because Russia has “achieved a lot,” Prystaiko said, they’re able to negotiate. So, Ukraine will have to look for “low-hanging fruit. You don't have to be a genius to understand what will be asked of us: at least Crimea." DRIP, DRIP, DRIP: Despite troves of secret documents showing the United States' usage of espionage and other surveillance tools to give Ukraine a leg up over Russia, American officials continue to deny that Washington is in a proxy war. “We are not in a war with Russia, and we won’t be in a war with Russia,” Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN told the Washington Post’s KAREN DeYOUNG. “It was Russia’s choice to begin with.” Nearly a week after the alleged leaker’s arrest, intel continues to spill into the public. Egypt planned to secretly send Russia rockets before U.S. officials convinced its leaders to instead provide artillery ammunition to Ukraine, The Washington Post’s MISSY RYAN, EVAN HILL and SIOBHÁN O'GRADY reported Monday night. The country intended to covertly send 40,000 rockets to Russia in February, but Washington apparently scored a major diplomatic win by pressuring President ABDEL FATTAH EL-SISI to change course. Other documents show that the U.S. eavesdropped on United Nations Secretary-General ANTÓNIO GUTERRES’s conversations with U.N. officials, the Post’s TIM STARKS and DeYoung reported. To do so, Washington relied on spying abilities granted under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which faces a tough reauthorization fight in Congress. As the saga continues, U.S. investigators have looked into whether alleged leaker JACK TEIXEIRA, a member of the Air National Guard, interacted with anyone from a foreign country or government before posting the documents online, three people familiar with the probe told our own ERIN BANCO and LARA SELIGMAN on Monday. BEIJING'S GLOBAL EYES: The secret police stations that China’s government has set up around the globe are catching attention in the U.S. this week after New York attorney BREON PEACE announced the arrest of two men who allegedly ran an outpost in Manhattan. Chinese police on at least one occasion were tapped to “help locate a pro-democracy activist of Chinese descent living in California,” Peace said. Italy is home to 11 of the more than 100 suspected stations, while the Netherlands, Ireland, Canada and Germany each have similar facilities that are suspected to be run by Chinese security authorities. Last year, German authorities investigated whether China maintains an illegal station in Frankfurt, and similar investigations took place in Netherlands and Canada.
| | | | The McCain Institute will convene its 10th annual Sedona Forum on May 5-6, featuring lawmakers, journalists, military leaders, business executives, and more. This year’s theme, “Indispensable Power,” will examine the diplomatic, military, and economic means employed to protect democracy, human rights, and the global competitive edge. Established by Senator John McCain, the Sedona Forum is held each spring in the red rock country of Sedona, Arizona, to advance the mission of the McCain Institute – fighting for democracy, human dignity, and security. Visit TheSedonaForum.org to register for the livestream today. | | | | | | | | CHENEY BOOK: Possible 2024 hopeful LIZ CHENEY announced a book Tuesday that will provide insider detail of the Jan. 6 Committee and why she made the decision to so openly challenge former President DONALD TRUMP to the detriment of her career. Oath and Honor: A Memoir and a Warning, scheduled for release in November, could lead to a bad news cycle for Trump in the heat of the primary season. The book could offer new information about Trump’s false allegations of 2024 election fraud and claims of insurrection incitement and why she thinks he shouldn’t serve as commander in chief again. “The last two years have shown us once again that our constitutional republic is not self-sustaining. It survives only because of the courage and honor of individual Americans. When history looks back on this time, each elected official will have to answer the questions: Did we do our duty? Were we faithful to our oath of office?” Cheney said in a statement announcing her book.
| | | | GO INSIDE THE 2023 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO is proud to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage, insider nuggets and unparalleled insights from the 2023 Global Conference, which will convene leaders in health, finance, politics, philanthropy and entertainment from April 30-May 3. This year’s theme, Advancing a Thriving World, will challenge and inspire attendees to lean into building an optimistic coalition capable of tackling the issues and inequities we collectively face. Don’t miss a thing — subscribe today for a front row seat. | | | | | | | | ‘EPOCH-DEFINING’ CHALLENGE: LINDA CAMERON, CEO of the United Kingdom’s National Cyber Security Centre, is warning the country’s allies about the implications of China’s emergence as a technology superpower, the Guardian reports. “We cannot secure future technology without addressing the epoch-defining challenge that we are facing: the dramatic rise of China as a technology superpower,” Cameron said. Although the U.K. has taken a tougher stance on Beijing compared with other European countries looking to avoid choosing sides between China and the U.S., British Prime Minister RISHI SUNAK has faced blowback for not going far enough. BYPASSING SANCTIONS: Russia has managed to gain access to Western chips and technology despite being targeted by numerous sanctions, the New York Times’ ANA SWANSON and MATINA STEVIS-GRIDNEFF report. While chip sales from the U.S. and its allies are currently nonexistent, Russia has been able to import technology from countries like Kazakhstan and Armenia. The acquisition of sanctioned technology highlights how Moscow has built partnerships with other countries, like China, to supplement the West’s effort to curb trade access.
| | | LEADERSHIP RESHUFFLE: CONNOR O’BRIEN and Lara broke down the top contenders for each of the soon-to-be vacant roles on the Joint Chiefs of Staff and how some of Biden’s next appointments could have historic implications. Air Force Gen. C.Q. BROWN is the leading pick to replace Gen. MARK MILLEY. Army Gen. RANDY GEORGE is the top candidate to serve as chief of staff of the Army and previously served as SecDef Austin’s senior military assistant from June 2021 to July 2022. Navy Adm. LISA FRANCHETTI is widely seen as the favorite to replace Adm. MIKE GILDAY, chief of naval operations, after previously commanding the destroyer USS Ross. Gen. JACQUELINE VAN OVOST would likely be tapped to serve as chief of staff of the Air Force if Brown is appointed as the Joint Chiefs chair. She is the first woman to lead U.S. Transportation Command and spearheaded efforts to transport Covid-19 vaccines and coordinate evacuations from Kabul in 2021. Gen. ERIC SMITH is likely to be named commandant of the Marine Corps after leading its forces as part of U.S. Southern Command.
| | FRIENDLY CALL: Zelenskyy spoke with Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY Tuesday. Zelenskyy thanked McCarthy for the “bipartisan support” in Congress for Ukraine’s military needs, specifically mentioning armored vehicles, artillery, air defense and aircraft, per his tweeted readout of the call. McCarthy famously said Republicans in the House wouldn’t support a “blank check” for Ukraine’s weapons wishlist. HFAC TARGETS EXPORT REFORM: The House Foreign Affairs Committee will advance legislation this year to support the AUKUS agreement by easing arms export limits that bar the U.S. from sharing sensitive technologies, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report. Though the bill hasn’t been written yet, the idea is to craft an “exception” to the International Traffic in Arms Regulations regime for Australia and the United Kingdom, according to Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), the chair. “It would essentially be to simplify it. It would be an AUKUS exception to ITAR,” McCaul said. “It’s so you wouldn’t have these highly bureaucratic obstacles to the U.K., United States and Australia working together on these weapons systems.”
| | | |   | | | | | AMERICAN TECH IN RUSSIA: The U.S. is warning Russia not to touch American nuclear technology stored in Ukraine, according to a letter from the Department of Energy to Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy firm Rosatom, CNN’s NATASHA BERTRAND and TIM LISTER report. The director of the Energy Department’s Office of Nonproliferation Policy, ANDREA FERKILE, said that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant located in Enerhodar contains “U.S.-origin nuclear technical data” subject to U.S. export controls in a March 17 letter reviewed by CNN. The letter warned it is “unlawful” for any Russian citizen or entity to handle the technology without prior authorization. The power plant is situated in the part of Zaporizhzhia that Russia has occupied since its invasion in March of 2022. While the plant is operated by Ukranian staff, the state-owned Russian firm Rosatom manages the plant’s operations. The station, which is the largest in Europe, has frequently been disconnected from Ukraine’s power grid as a result of the conflict, raising the specter of a nuclear accident across the European continent.
| | — ILAN GOLDENBERG is now special adviser on the Middle East, defense and technology for the vice president, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. He most recently was DOD coordinator for the Coalition to Defeat ISIS in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. — HARRIS WALKER is now director of government affairs for North America and Europe, Middle East and Africa at Livent. He most recently was senior adviser for strategic engagement at DOE’s National Nuclear Security Administration. — AHMAD KHAN will be director of strategic engagement at the office of DoD’s Chief Information Officer. He most recently was chief of staff to the undersecretary of Defense for acquisition and sustainment. — ADAM LEMON is now a military legislative aide for Rep. JIM BANKS (R-Ind.) after previously serving as a legislative assistant for Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.). — VICTOR SHIH has been named the new director of UC-San Diego’s 21st Century China Center. He will take over for SUSAN SHIRK who has led the center since 2011.
| | | — LEON ARON, POLITICO: Putin’s Regime Is Descending Into Stalinism — DANIELLE PLETKA, The Hill: The U.S. should reassess its massive aid programs to the Middle East — WALTER RUSSEL MEAD, The Wall Street Journal: Scolding Isn’t a Foreign Policy
| | — The Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: Italy's defense posture in light of Russia's continued war in Ukraine and systemic changes to the European security architecture — The Space Foundation, 9:15 a.m.: The 38th Space Symposium, representing all sectors of the space community — The Senate Armed Services Cybersecurity Subcommittee, 9:30 a.m.: Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Applications to Enable Cybersecurity — The Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: Achieving and Sustaining Epidemic Control — The House Oversight and Accountability Committee, 10 a.m.: The Biden Administration's Disastrous Withdrawal from Afghanistan, Part I: Review by the Inspectors General — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m.: Security Assistance in the Middle East: Challenges and the Need for Change. — The Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.: Insight from the field: The double crisis for Syrian earthquake survivors in Turkey — The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2 p.m.: Repatriation from Northeast Syria and the Effort to Counter Violent Extremism — House Administration Committee Oversight Subcommittee, 2 p.m.: Data Breach at the D.C. Health Exchange Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, about whom we’ve run a TTX to simulate her removal. We also thank our producer, Sinobia Aiden, who thinks life is a simulation, anyway.
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Lockheed Martin is helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating our digital transformation. That means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins so you can anticipate maintenance and reduce downtime. It means deep knowledge of your missions. It means industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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