Hundreds of political consultants walk into a bar … and no, that’s not a joke. Last week, political campaign professionals gathered in California for the annual American Association of Political Consultants’ Pollies conference, where they discussed the challenges and opportunities facing the industry heading into the 2024 cycle. Here’s what’s on their minds heading into a monumental presidential election year. — Artificial intelligence: Artificial intelligence will seep its way into campaigns this cycle. Given that it’s still emerging and developing, campaigns are toying with how to best use the technology. “It’s going to be tough for you guys to use this in a fully political context, I'll be totally honest,” said Dave Leichtman, director of corporate civic responsibility at Microsoft, during a panel on ChatGPT. He pointed to the fact that the program is trained to lay out facts, rather than have a political discussion or help generate persuasive tactics that campaigns use when reaching voters. (When asking ChatGPT certain political questions, it may refuse to answer the question, or add a word of caution reminding the user that it’s an AI language model.) Still, there are potential benefits to using such technology in a creative context. It can be helpful for brainstorming copy or creating AI-generated images — as long as it’s disclosed that they’re not real. Leichtman said that if campaigns do decide to use AI to help draft a fundraising email, for example, it’s good for outlining, but then it’s critical to go back and rewrite it to ensure it’s accurate. “AI is here to assist you, not to do your job,” he said. But integrating AI into campaigns raises the need to train or hire staff that knows how to prompt the program in an effective way — depending on how a question is asked, the program provides different answers. And even if a team isn’t planning on using AI this cycle, some panelists said that it’s important to have conversations now about how it will be used in workflow and team structures. As the technology progresses, campaigns in the future may be able to use private models to parse through data it collects to inform its messaging. “It just sort of changes the human role in this, we can move away from crunching data,” said Vance Reavie, founder and CEO of Junction AI. “Let the machine do that, surface those most important insights up. … That's where the human plays the role, saying this is the one that's relevant to the message I need.” — Advertising: In 2022, broadcast was still the dominant medium for advertising. But can the growth of connected TV — such as streaming services — challenge that? Already, some target demographics, like young voters, are less likely to be watching traditional media. Some strategists on panels about crafting an advertising media mix expected more advertising dollars to be allocated on CTV in the upcoming cycle. Another prominent way to reach voters is one that’s a bit more tried and true: direct mail. A white paper presented at the conference by the United States Postal Service and AAPC found that 2022 saw a 34 percent increase in political mail volume compared to 2018. The research suggests that such advertising is even beneficial for an unlikely group — younger voters. Although Gen Z-ers check their mail less frequently, “they have a unique relationship with direct mail that runs counter to the narrative of a digital-first culture,” the report says. Sixty-two percent of Gen Z voters “trust direct mail more than online political advertising — compared to 42 percent of older voters.” — Polling: Although polling has been under a critical eye for years, pollsters on a panel about getting the most out of polling emphasized that the work they do is distinct from polls conducted for media outlets or by institutions of higher education. “A poll is not meant to predict the outcome of an election,” Democratic pollster Jill Normington said on the panel. “This isn't Vegas, and we're not in the business of trying to figure out who's going to win and who's going to lose. … Our work is a decision-making tool inside of a campaign.” Panelists also stressed the need for campaigns to look at potential swing voters, or the nearly half of adults who are independents, heading into 2024. With Democrats and Republicans each having just a quarter of adults affiliated with the party, “solidifying your base isn’t going to necessarily win any elections right now,” Brett Loyd of the Bullfinch Group said on the panel. Happy Monday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Kentucky primary: 22 Days until the Mississippi primary: 106 Days until the Louisiana primary: 173 Days until the 2023 election: 197 Days until the 2024 election: 561
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