He's not going anywhere

May 08, 2023

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. I’m your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey, with Zi-Ann Lum. Today, we take stock on the Liberal flock — and consider what a weekend confab says about the future. Plus, Liberals said nary a word about foreign interference at their love-in. But their handling of the file is still center stage on the House agenda.

DRIVING THE DAY

SOONER OR LATER — JUSTIN TRUDEAU keeps insisting he wants to win one more election. Reporters never seem to believe him. This is a prime minister swimming in baggage, tied or trailing in almost every poll since PIERRE POILIEVRE vaulted to opposition leader.

Only two PMs have ever pulled off four wins in a row, and their faces both ended up on our money. Does Trudeau really think he has what it takes?

Well, he capped a Thursday night convention speech to hyped-up Liberals with a decisive commitment to lead them once again into battle. He scored a decent ovation from a few thousand true believers.

We might have to start believing he actually wants another kick at the can.

— Solidarity, for now: Not a single delegate prancing around Ottawa's Shaw Centre told Playbook that Trudeau's time was up. Even the loose lips of the boozy reception circuit pledged allegiance to the leader. It's his time until it isn't. He's our guy. And hey, have you seen any drink tickets floating around?

— But not forever: That's not to say the future wasn't peeking through the curtains.

There was MÉLANIE JOLY's crowded basement reception with Young Liberals at Rabbit Hole on Sparks Street, an event attended by Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT.

Innovation Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE was mobbed by fans following an onstage tete-a-tete with JEAN CHRÉTIEN. The Shawiniguy energy was strong in that room.

Defense Minister ANITA ANAND ~~road-tested a leadership stump speech~~ delivered a midday keynote to a small crowd on the convention's final day.

"Thanks to your tenacity, we will build a better future for Canadians," Anand told delegates. "And I can’t wait to see what that future holds."

— Peculiar pinch hitter: Liberals seek validation from A-list Democrats in times of need, and that’s what HILLARY CLINTON delivered at the party’s convention on Friday night.

She said she was there to talk about whatever was on Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND’s mind. If Freeland’s goal was to get Clinton’s endorsement of the Liberals’ positions on abortion rights, child care, Ukraine and Canada’s “amazing” PM, then it was a mission accomplished. “Cringeworthy,” chirped the Globe’s ANDREW COYNE.

— Point-form takeaways: If there's an emerging consensus on who gets to lead the Liberal Party, it looks something like this.

✔ This is still Trudeau's party, and he's earned another campaign.

✔ Succession planning is smart, which is why future contenders are building support.

✔ Nobody is looking for a civil war. (Yet.)

✔ All bets are off when the next election ends.

— Wildest unsubstantiated rumor making the rounds: Mississauga Mayor BONNIE CROMBIE plans to enter the Ontario Liberal leadership race. If she wins, Premier DOUG FORD would fear losing to her in 2026 and leave office before seeking a third term.

That theory didn't impress many Ontarians roaming the convention hall. But Crombie did arrive in town Friday night, and she sat with interim provincial leader JOHN FRASER on the sunny Metropolitain patio on Saturday afternoon. The kind of place where people notice that sort of thing.

— More free beer: Everybody knows that Liberal MPs NATHANIEL ERSKINE-SMITH and YASIR NAQVI will enter the provincial race. They're on the cusp of making it official. But only one of them shelled out for a Westin Hotel hospitality suite where bathtubs were filled with tallboys.

The claustrophobic party eventually shifted to the hotel basement, where Erskine-Smith practiced his own leadership lines on the gathered crowd.

— Unsung heroine: Convention-goers maxed out their WhatsApp social planning group chat at 1,024 members. They tipped their caps to fastidious group admin DIAMOND ISINGER, a former PMO Canada-U.S. specialist who now lives and works in Vancouver.

— No prying eyes: Volunteers playing gatekeeper blocked the hallway to Room 214 in the Shaw Centre, where pesky reporters were barred from viewing sensitive strategy discussions — including how to win non-urban seats and close races.

— Caffeine deficit: The convention ran out of coffee at midday on Saturday.

GOOD IDEA/BAD IDEA — The Shaw Centre confab was less a policy convention than it was a personality convention with a dash of policy. Some resolutions caused a stir.

→ A motion to commit to balanced budgets failed. PIERRE POILIEVRE noticed.

→ A motion to establish a citizens' assembly on electoral reform passed. Green MP MIKE MORRICE called on the government to support his private members' motion on the same topic that has the maximum number of joint seconders — including Erskine-Smith, Naqvi and 10 other Liberal MPs. (Trudeau does not consider it a priority.)

→ Also passed? A motion that called on the government to "hold on-line information services accountable for the veracity of material published on their platforms and to limit publication only to material whose sources can be traced." PAUL WELLS was unenthused.

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THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

FOREIGN INTERFERENCE — The House votes today on a Tory opposition motion that calls on the government to "expel all of the People's Republic of China diplomats responsible for and involved in these affronts to Canadian democracy."

— The backstory: The Globe and Mail reported last week that Canada's intelligence service was aware of potential threats to Tory MP MICHAEL CHONG and members of his Hong Kong-based family in 2021.

The newspaper cited top secret documents that claimed the alleged targeting of Chong was related to his vote in the House that declared a genocide against Uyghurs in China's Xinjiang region. A Chinese diplomat, WEI JO, was named in the docs.

“It really, really shook me up that we’re standing naked in the wind, so to speak, exposed to these threats,” Chong told The West Block on Global.

Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY has only committed to exploring the possible expulsion of diplomats. Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU told reporters Friday at the Liberal convention that a decision would come "in due course." The PM said the next day in London that Joly "is leaning into this very, very carefully."

The CPC motion also calls for a public inquiry into foreign election interference. The Liberals have so far deferred to "independent special rapporteur" DAVID JOHNSTON on that question.

THE GUN BILL — A lengthy government motion on the notice paper would give the House national security committee the ability to expand the scope of Bill C-21, the gun control legislation that most Liberals quietly curse, and speed its passage through the House.

— Details, details: Government House Leader MARK HOLLAND's motion gives the committee two marathon meetings on consecutive days to debate a raft of amendments.

Both meetings would run from 3:30 p.m. until midnight, and each amendment would be allotted only 20 minutes of debate. Anything the committee doesn't get to would be put to a vote without debate.

— This won't go over well: The motion also gives the House a single day for debate at report stage, and another for third reading.

PIERRE POILIEVRE — The Tory leader headlined a rally in Woodstock, Ont., where candidate ARPAN KHANNA launched his campaign for the yet-to-be-called byelection. That's the same Khanna who lost the support of DAVE MACKENZIE, the longtime Conservative MP who threw his name behind the Liberal candidate.

— Say what? Poilievre repeated his well-worn stump speech with a crowd favorite about defunding the CBC and turning its Toronto HQ into affordable housing.

A supporter yelled from the crowd that a Poilievre government should sell off 24 Sussex. "That's an interesting suggestion," laughed the leader. "This is where the best ideas come from." He jokingly tasked one of his MPs, LARRY BROCK, with drawing up a memo.

— Down east: Poilievre jetted to Newfoundland and Labrador on Saturday, where he met with a family business in Cox's Cove, as well as hunters, trappers and fishers in Deer Lake.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— At 2 p.m., Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will participate in the Intergovernmental Leaders Forum that will "focus on strengthening relationships with Self-Governing and Modern Treaty Partners from across the country."

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will attend question period.

— Defense Minister ANITA ANAND welcomes her Polish counterpart, MARIUSZ BŁASZCZAK, for an Ottawa visit. They'll hold a media avail at 10:35 a.m.

10:15 a.m. NDP leader JAGMEET SINGH will speak at the 2023 Canadian Labour of Congress Convention.

11 a.m. The House heritage committee has Meta's top Canadians in the hotseat: Global policy director KEVIN CHAN and RACHEL CURRAN, head of public policy in Canada. The committee study title isn't subtle: "Tech giants’ current and ongoing use of intimidation and subversion tactics to evade regulation in Canada and across the world"

3:30 p.m. Freeland will hold a bilateral meeting with Błaszczak.

4 p.m. The Canadian American Business Council is hosting a town hall on "corporate action on social justice." The title: "A discussion on woke/anti-woke policy."

For your radar

BATTERY MATES — Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY broke a little news at the Liberal convention. She referenced an upcoming trip to South Korea with PM Trudeau. Playbook confirmed the prime minister will visit Seoul before the G-7 Summit in Hiroshima, Japan.

It'll be wheels up from Ottawa on May 15. The trip concludes on the 21st.

— Maybe it's a coincidence: Korean lithium-ion battery producer SK On has a new lobbyist in Ottawa. CATHERINE FRELIN of PriceWaterhouseCoopers signed up for the company in the federal lobbyist registry.

SK On and Ford have been in talks to build a cathode factory in Bécancour, Quebec — the same city where BASF and GM are making huge investments in similar operations.

A Korean news outlet reported last October that the two companies planned to ink a deal with battery materials producer EcoPro before the end of the year — and break ground this year. EcoPro is repped by KPMG in the lobbyist registry.

Frelin's priority is helping SK apply for a federal investment sourced from ISED's Strategic Infrastructure Fund.

— Backstory: Recall the readout of PM Trudeau's September working visit with South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL: "They pledged to deepen cooperation on supply chain resiliency, critical minerals, and batteries for electric vehicles, all while maintaining high labor conditions and environmental standards."

Similar language ended up in the government's Indo-Pacific strategy, which notes Korea is an "increasingly important source" of foreign direct investment.

MEDIA ROOM

— Close to 30,000 people are now displaced as Alberta continues battling wildfires, CBC News reports.

— From the Star's STEPHANIE LEVITZ: Michael Chong reveals why his story should concern Canadians

— Crown expert PHILIPPE LAGASSÉ noted the kerfuffle over the new Canadian Royal Crown — out with the crosses, in with the maple leaves and snowflake — and signed off thusly: "Snowflakes melt but the monarchy endures." (Note: It's not just any snowflake.)

— The Globe visits an emerging focal point of the clean economy: "How the EV battery boom could change Bécancour, a quiet corner of Quebec, forever"

— ICYMI via APTN News: Mi’kmaw MP JAIME BATTISTE says legal challenges likely over commission boundary changes

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM: Canada weighs escalating Beijing tensions

In other news for Pro subscribers:

— Trump plays the inside game to stave off '16-like convention chaos
— Tough questions await Biden’s planned pick for Joint Chiefs chair
— German economy chief floats subsidies for energy-intensive industries
— FDA concerned about greenlighting over-the-counter birth control pill
— Biden names Neera Tanden as his domestic policy adviser

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to former Liberal MP IRWIN COTLER, former Tory Cabmin GARY LUNN, and former Quebec deputy premier NATHALIE NORMANDEAU.

HBD + 1 to Crestview Strategy senior consultant SUSIE HEATH. HBD + 2 to Bluesky Strategy Group co-founder TIM BARBER (60!) and Blackbird Strategies consultant (and outgoing Young Liberals national chair) LUCAS BORCHENKO.

Spotted: At CHRYSTIA FREELAND's Northeastern University commencement address at Fenway Park: Freeland senior comms adviser CAMERON MCNEILL, director of operations SHANNON ZIMMERMAN, Boston consul general RODGER CUZNER, and Crestview Strategy consultants ROB GILMOUR and ALEX BYRNE-KRZYCKI (The university is a client. They took in the ceremony atop the stadium's iconic Green Monster).

At Power & Politics host DAVID COCHRANE's 50th birthday party on Saturday night: family from outside the bubble, friends and colleagues from inside the bubble.

At the British High Commission's coronation party: House Speaker ANTHONY ROTA and CHANTAL PICHÉ-ROTA, U.S. Ambo DAVID COHEN, French Ambo MICHEL MIRAILLET, Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT, Gen. WAYNE EYRE, Liberal MPs ROB OLIPHANT and JOHN MCKAY, Tory MP KYLE SEEBACK, Sen. PETER BOEHM, PMO deputy chief of staff BRIAN CLOW, Abacus Data pollster DAVID COLETTO, and Poilievre senior staffers BEN WOODFINDEN and SHAWN DRISCOLL.

Movers and shakers: ANDREW MACKENDRICK is leaving Indigenous Services Minister PATTY HAJDU's office. A Liberal staffer for most of eight years, most recently as Hajdu's director of comms and issues management, MacKendrick is headed off the Hill on May 12.

— The Alliance for Visitors Tax Refund tapped Montreal-based NATIONAL consultant VINCENT PILON to make its case on the Hill.

The coalition includes Aldo, Birks, Harry Rosen, Hudson's Bay, Cadillac Fairview, Triple Five, QuadReal Property Group, the Retail Council of Canada, and Global Blue — a Swedish company that specializes in tax-free shopping platforms. The group wants the government to exempt or rebate sales tax paid by international visitors to Canada.

— JANET SILVER will lead Syntax Strategic's new media relations practice.

Media mentions: Bloomberg News editor STEPHEN WICARY is leaving Ottawa. Next stop: the Buenos Aires bureau. "It's going to be a blast chronicling capitalism in a part of the world that isn't entirely sold on it," he wrote on LinkedIn … KIERSTIN WILLIAMS is now reporting on the Hill for APTN News.

Farewell: BRIAN MCKENNA, a founding producer of CBC's The Fifth Estate, died Friday night at the age of 77 ... Former Liberal Cabinet minister MARC LALONDE died Sunday, aged 93. "It is impossible to overstate the impact that Marc has had on Canada," tweeted PM Trudeau.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

On the Hill

— Find the latest House committee meetings here.

— Keep track of Senate committees here.

9 a.m. Housing and Diversity and Inclusion Minister AHMED HUSSEN and Indigenous Services Minister MARC MILLER will hold a press conference in West Block to make an announcement on Indigenous shelters and transitional housing.

11 a.m. The House fisheries committee meets to continue its study of foreign ownership and corporation concentration of fishing licenses and quota.

11 a.m. Meta Platforms’ KEVIN CHAN and RACHEL CURRAN will be at the House heritage committee’s first meeting probing tech giants’ “current and ongoing use of intimidation and subversion tactics.”

11 a.m. The House international trade committee meets to continue its study of non-tariff barriers in Canada’s existing and potential international trade agreements.

11 a.m. Auditor General KAREN HOGAN will be at the House public accounts committee where MPs are studying main estimates.

3:30 p.m. The House citizenship and immigration committee meets to take Bill S-245 through clause-by-clause consideration.

3:30 p.m. The House veterans affairs committee meets to continue its study of the experience of women veterans.

3:30 p.m. Bill C-45 will be up for clause-by-clause consideration at the House Indigenous and northern affairs committee.

4 p.m. Canada Border Services Agency officials will be at the Senate national security committee’s study of Bill C-47 before moving on to an in-camera to discuss “future business.”

4:15 p.m. Canadian Human Rights Commission employee BERNADETH BETCHI will be the first witness up at the Senate human rights committee where senators are studying anti-Black racism, sexism and systemic discrimination at the commission.

5 p.m. The Senate official languages committee meets to pick up on its study of issues related to minority-language health services.

6:30 p.m. The House agriculture meeting will discuss the closure of the Olymel Processing Plant in Vallée-Jonction.

6:30 p.m. The House committee on Canada-China relations will hear from the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan and others.

— Behind the scenes: The House environment committee will review a draft of its fossil fuel subsidies study; the House public accounts committee’s subcommittee on agenda and procedure has “committee business” in its schedule.

TRIVIA

Friday’s answer: The RCMP gifted KING CHARLES with a new royal horse named Noble.

Props to TOM WALSH ("Good trivia question!" replied the high commission's head of comms), GORDON RANDALL, KRISTA OUTHWAITE, ALYSON FAIR, MICHAEL FOLKERSON, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, CAMERON PENNER, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, SHEILA GERVAIS, FRANCIE FORD, and LAURA JARVIS.

Monday's question: A future president visited Picton, Ont., in 1957. At a local pub, he settled a bet between a waiter and bartender over his identity. As the POTUS-to-be left the watering hole, he overheard the bartender say: "You know, he doesn't look near as bad in person as he does in his pictures."

Name the president.

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

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