Norway walks a tightrope in the Arctic

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May 08, 2023 View in browser   By Ari Hawkins Follow Ari on Twitter | Send tips and insights to ahawkins@politico.com The Arctic Council chair will transfer from Russia to Norway this week, and ambassador Morten Høglund is pledging to revive communications stalled in the aftermath of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The council — which includes Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States — functions as the main forum for cooperation on Arctic issues like environmental protection and access to natural resources. Over more than two decades, the bloc has delivered binding agreements on pollution, scientific cooperation and maritime law. Tension in the Arctic: That kind of coordination could be harder to come by as Russia’s war effort stretches into a second year. “We are not in a situation of business as usual,” Grantly Franklin, a spokesperson for Canada’s foreign affairs department, told Global Insider. A U.S. State Department spokesperson echoed the line in an emailed statement. After the onset of the invasion, Western nations, including Canada, the U.S. and Norway, announced their intention to suspend all meetings of the Council and its subsidiary bodies. Countries have since resumed work on some projects that do not involve Russia. But Oslo’s optimistic: When asked about Russia’s role going forward, Høglund said Norway will “consult with all member states” on how to restart more activities and meetings. “The preparations for the transition meeting is going according to plan,” he said over email. Meanwhile: China, which sees the Arctic as a strategic transport route to Europe, has vowed to play a supportive role in restoring the council’s operations. Last year, Beijing vowed not to recognize the council without participation from Moscow, a signal of their rising influence in the Arctic. THE WEEK AHEAD Monday:  Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will greet members of the Japan-South Korea parliamentary league and later trade and business representatives in Seoul. The meetings come one day after Kishida met South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol in a show of unity amid rising threats from China and North Korea. Tuesday:  Southeast Asian finance ministers meet for the first day of the 42nd ASEAN Summit in Indonesia, and are expected to discuss ASEAN centrality and de-dollarization. Thursday:  Title 42, the Trump-era policy that made it easier to expel migrants from the U.S. during the pandemic, is set to expire. Høglund will represent Norway to officiate the handover of the chairmanship of the Arctic Council from Russia. The meeting will take place virtually. Saturday:  Stockholm is slated to host the EU Indo-Pacific Ministerial Forum. EU countries have expressed unease over China’s presence along the Himalayan border. Sunday:  Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections take place as ruling powers complicate efforts to expand NATO. Polling indicates the candidates are neck and neck. Click here for live updates. BORDER ON THE BRINK AS TITLE 42 EXPIRES Communities along the Mexican border are bracing for a stream of asylum-seekers as the U.S. prepares to end the pandemic-related border policy known as Title 42. El Paso officials are preparing temporary shelters at district schools after mayor Oscar Leeser announced a state of emergency in the border city last week. Talking numbers: The top U.S. border official Troy Miller told Congress he’s bracing for up to 10,000 migrants to cross the southern border daily upon expiry, twice the daily average in March. Goodbye 42: The immigration policy for public-health-related crises, invoked by the Trump administration and kept by President Joe Biden, allowed authorities to rapidly expel hundreds of thousands of people without chance for asylum. Both the Trump and Biden administrations have defended Title 42 as a tool to curb Covid-19 outbreaks in border facilities, contradicting CDC experts, who said the policy unfairly stigmatized migrants. Border bailout: Mexico agreed to continue to accept migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela who are turned away from the U.S., which immigration experts warn could further overwhelm border cities. TURKISH ELECTION AMID EARTHQUAKE OUTCRY   Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu are making their final push for voters at dueling campaign rallies less than a week ahead of their presidential contest. A six-party coalition has united behind Kilicdaroglu, who has capitalized on public anger over the government's handling of a February earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people. That bloc has called for Turkey to enhance ties with Europe. On Stockholm: Erdogan has refused to back Sweden’s bid to join the NATO military alliance after a series of demonstrations took place in Stockholm where anti-Islam activists desecrated the Muslim holy book. Kilicdaroglu in contrast has told reporters he is hopeful that Turkey will approve Sweden’s application before the NATO summit in July. SULLIVAN IN SAUDI: National security adviser Jake Sullivan discussed a possible major rail and port network to link India and the Gulf on a visit to Riyadh on Sunday, Axios reported. The White House is pushing the project as China’s influence in the Middle East grows. CLINTON IN OTTAWA: Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton joined Canadian PM Chrystia Freeland for a discussion focused on threats to democracy and human rights at the Liberal convention in Ottawa on Friday, warning that failing to stop Russia would be “disastrous in terms of unleashing Chinese aggression.” Watch the full interview here. GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS END OF ISOLATION: On Sunday, the Arab league re-admitted Syria’s regime, ending an 11-year absence, the culmination of a thaw in relations between Damascus and the rest of the Middle East after years of isolation. Washington railed against the decision. KREMLIN’S CREEP INTO SLOVAKIA: The pro-Western prime minister of Slovakia, Eduard Heger, resigned from his post, ahead of an election that’s forecast to favor the Moscow-friendly party. The country is a NATO and European Union member, but has fumbled through high inflation as war wages in nearby Ukraine. The political fallout culminated in a no-confidence motion that Heger lost in December, paving the way for early elections this September. TALKS START IN SUDAN: Envoys for Sudan’s warring factions met for direct talks in Saudi Arabia over the weekend as mediators press for an end to the conflict that has killed hundreds. But air strikes continued to shake Khartoum on Monday. "A permanent ceasefire isn't on the table,” a Saudi diplomat told Agence France-Presse. “Every side believes it is capable of winning the battle," the diplomat added. Saudi Arabia and the U.S. had celebrated the talks and urged both parties to come to a lasting ceasefire. Q&A One poignant moment during this year’s White House Correspondents Association Dinner was Biden’s shoutout to WNBA star Brittney Griner, who was in attendance months after Russia freed her in a prisoner swap. Biden stressed that his team is determined to end such wrongful detentions of Americans. But for relatives of these Americans, especially lesser-known ones, keeping the U.S. government focused on the issue remains a constant endeavor. Many have joined a campaign called “Bring Our Families Home,” and they rallied near the White House last week. One less-prominent case is that of Eyvin Hernandez, a public defender from California detained in Venezuela. Our Nahal Toosi spoke with Eyvin’s brother Henry Martinez, who recently met with Sullivan, the national security adviser. The following has been edited and condensed for clarity: What is the latest you’ve heard from your brother? My brother is currently allowed to call twice a week for about five or 10 minutes. These conversations are recorded, guards surrounding him. It’s not like he can speak freely. There are moments where he has strength, and then there are moments where you hear the despair in his voice and the frustration. The uncertainty is what really takes a toll on him. I have moments when I cry with my mother and my father. If it wasn't for my brother's friends, who have so much love for him, I don't think I would have gotten this far. Do you think the Biden administration is doing enough, overall and for your brother? There has been a shift considering these few high-profile cases. However, I don’t think it’s enough. They need to act more quickly and with a sense of urgency. I’m very happy for Brittney Griner and her family that she’s back home, and I’m super grateful that she’s continuing to advocate for all families [whose relatives] are wrongfully detained. However, the fight continues to push our government to make these hard decisions. If you were running everything, what would you do to bring your brother home? We ask the Biden administration to do everything it can, to use all tools on the table and to make those hard decisions as it has in the past bringing others’ loved ones home. Does that include a prisoner exchange? When I say all, I mean all. I’m not opposed to anything.   DON’T MISS THE POLITICO ENERGY SUMMIT: A new world energy order is emerging and America’s place in it is at a critical juncture. Join POLITICO on Thursday, May 18 for our first-ever energy summit to explore how the U.S. is positioning itself in a complicated energy future. We’ll explore progress on infrastructure and climate funding dedicated to building a renewable energy economy, Biden’s environmental justice proposals, and so much more. REGISTER HERE.     GLOBETROTTERS ‘ALL HAIL QUEEN URSULA’: With the election more than a year away, stars are already aligning around a second term for European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. She is yet to confirm if she’s even interested in continuing the position. Read more from POLITICO’s Nicholas Vinocur. LADY IN BLUE: First Lady Jill Biden and granddaughter Finnegan Biden represented the U.S. at the British coronation on Saturday, wearing coordinated yellow and blue dresses representing the flag of Ukraine. Jill sat beside First Lady of Ukraine Olena Zelenska, who thanked her for persisting support from Washington. “Congratulations to King Charles III and Queen Camilla on their Coronation. The enduring friendship between the U.S. and the U.K. is a source of strength for both our peoples,” President Biden wrote on Twitter. No American president has made an appearance at a British coronation since the country gained independence in 1776. TIKTOK’S NEW DEFENDER: Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who is known for riling his colleagues, warned fellow Republicans that they could “lose elections for a generation” if the GOP follows through on threats to ban the massively popular Chinese-owned app. MOVES Haiti has fired its ambassador to the U.S. Bocchit Edmond following investigations from both countries over a corruption scheme involving the illegal issuance of passports. BRAIN FOOD Russian forces are ramping up construction, focusing on closing gaps in defensive lines in eastern Ukraine and adding layers to existing fortifications in southern Ukraine ahead of an anticipated counteroffensive. Brady Africk, from the American Enterprise Institute, has been tracking the Kremlin's construction using satellite imagery since the onset of the invasion. Read how Georgians have been training for the rugby World Cup for the last 300 years. Thanks to Joseph Gedeon, Nahal Toosi, editor Heidi Vogt and producer Sophie Gardner. SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: D.C. Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | Paris Playbook| Ottawa Playbook| EU Confidential | | Digital Bridge | China Watcher | Berlin Bulletin | D.C. Influence | EU Influence | London Influence | Paris Influence   GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? 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