| | | | |  | | By Blake Jones and Alexander Nieves | SLOW LEAK: More people moved to California from out of the country in 2022 and fewer died from Covid. But that wasn’t enough to halt the state’s ongoing population decline. California lost more than 138,000 people last year, marking the third straight year the state shed residents, according to estimates released by the state Department of Finance this morning. But the decline did slow from 0.53 percent in 2021 to 0.35 percent, thanks to fewer deaths and international immigration rebounding to near pre-pandemic levels. Migration out of the state outpaced movement into it, even though international immigration tripled from 2021. There was a spike in people moving out of state early in the pandemic as remote work became increasingly prevalent; the outflow continued in 2022, even as California housing production picked up to its fastest clip since the Great Recession in a promising sign for the state’s affordability crisis.
|  Cars make their way toward downtown L.A. on the 110 freeway during the morning commute on April 22, 2021 in Los Angeles, California. | Mario Tama/Getty Images | So, is the largest of the United States going to shrink into a shell of its former self? The state already lost a House seat after its growth slowed heading into the 2020 Census, and California shrank for the first time in recorded history in 2020 and every year after as its birth rate slid and out-migration spiked. Much of the answer hinges on immigration from out of the country, which is dependent on federal policy, conditions outside the U.S. and other hard-to-predict factors. The Department of Finance’s most recent forecasts suggest the state’s population decline could continue into 2023 but stabilize the year after, with California picking up a couple thousand people in 2024. But even slow growth in the latter half of the decade could cause California to shed a second congressional seat after the 2030 Census, a fate it narrowly avoided in 2020. Shifts within the state could be equally consequential for California politics. Population losses have been concentrated in coastal cities where the cost of living is high, while the minority of counties that have gained residents occupy landlocked regions like the Inland Empire and Central Valley. The trend, seemingly driven by remote workers seeking cheaper housing, did not let up in 2022. Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco all shrank while inland cities such as Sacramento, Bakersfield and Fresno grew. The eastward movement of Californians has the potential to decrease statehouse representation for the state’s population centers like Los Angeles and transfer it to growing inland areas. Another year of population loss is sure to stoke familiar arguments from conservatives, who chalk up California’s shrinking to its politics. The National Review declared that liberal policies are to blame. The Wall Street Journal editorial board’s take on new IRS data cast the trend as an accelerating “blue state exodus.” And anecdotes of people fleeing California’s progressive policies have emerged in growing red states. There’s reason to believe people leaving the state have a conservative bent. A Public Policy Institute of California survey showed conservatives are more likely to consider leaving the state than liberals. “For people already inclined to leave California for other reasons, politics might push them to finally pack their bags,” PPIC analysts wrote, but they qualified that housing costs drive people to think about moving “regardless of ideology or other political opinions.” HAPPY MONDAY AFTERNOON! Welcome to California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check of California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to anieves@politico.com or send a shout on Twitter. DMs are open!
| | | | JOIN US TODAY IN Los Angeles as the race for the White House and campaign 2024 kicks into gear! POLITICO’s Senior Political Columnist Jonathan Martin and Playbook Co-Author & MSNBC Political Analyst Eugene Daniels will lead conversation with veteran Democratic Strategist, the Ragin’ Cajun James Carville following Day One of the Milken Conference Monday, on May 1 at 5:30pm at the Peninsula Beverly Hills. Is Biden/Trump II inevitable? What would a second term of either look like? What are the political fault lines that will determine the race for the next 18 months? Space is very limited, register for a chance to join here. | | | | | |  | WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY | | COOL FORECAST: California’s epically wet winter is the gift that keeps on giving. The latest outlook from the National Fire Interagency Center has encouraging news for the state, thanks to the massive Sierra snowpack. In Southern California, the forecast released today says we should expect “notably delayed start to fire activity and well below normal activity” above 7,000 feet. Much of Northern California is also forecast to be below normal for fire activity because of the wet winter and the cool and moist weather predicted for the coming weeks. “As long as people don’t start fires, we should be okay,” said Craig Clements, the director of the Wildfire Interdisciplinary Center at San Jose State University. Still, keep your evacuation bag close because wildfires can be unpredictable and the risk could rise with a vengeance in late summer and fall, when winds combine with a build-up of dead vegetation. — Camille von Kaenel
| | On The Beats | | HEALING HOSPITALS: Some of California’s hospitals are seriously hurting for cash, and they could be on the verge of getting a line of credit from the state. On Tuesday the Senate Budget Committee will hear Assembly Bill 112, a budget proposal to extend interest-free loans to struggling hospitals; an identical bill will be heard in the Assembly Budget Committee on Wednesday. The idea, first introduced this year by freshman Assemblymember Esmeralda Soria, a Fresno Democrat, would grant loans to hospitals at risk of closing or to government entities that want to reopen ones that recently closed (like Madera Community Hospital, in Soria’s district) from a fund that would sunset in 2032. The California Hospital Association has its own idea of how to bail out struggling hospitals: a one-time infusion of $1.5 billion. Senate Democrats, who recently released their budget plan, want to give them $400,000 over the next four years, which they say will be separate from the administration’s loan plan. — Rachel Bluth GROWING PAINS: The state is suing Elk Grove after City Council members there denied an application for an affordable housing project that would have brought 66 sorely needed, low-income units to the Sacramento suburb. The lawsuit brought by Attorney General Rob Bonta today says the city violated fair housing and other laws when it refused to authorize a project known as Oak Rose Apartments in Elk Grove's Old Town Special Planning Area. It's the first enforcement act under Senate Bill 35, a landmark 2017 law aimed at streamlining the housing-approval process in California. SB 35 is slated to expire at the end of 2025, and its author, San Francisco Sen. Scott Wiener, has a bill this year to make it permanent. But he is running up against staunch labor opposition over changed worker provisions. Elk Grove Mayor Bobbie Singh-Allen in a statement said the project was not eligible for streamlining under SB 35. "The City of Elk Grove is not a bad actor,” she said. “Elk Grove has a strong track record for supporting affordable housing projects and continues to engage in good faith discussions with the Oak Rose Apartments applicant in hopes of reaching a mutually agreeable solution." — Lara Korte
| | | | PLAYBOOK MEET & GREET! We did it before and we're doing it again! Join California Playbook and POLITICO’s growing team in Sacramento at Smic’s Sip & Quip on Thursday, May 11, 2023, for an evening of cocktails and conversation. As POLITICO expands in California, we're convening our most influential readers in Sacramento and beyond. Swing by and have a cocktail on us—you never know who you might run into! Register here. | | | | | | | AROUND CALIFORNIA | | – “Decades of failures leave L.A. County facing up to $3 billion in sex abuse claims,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Rebecca Ellis: “County officials predicted that they may be forced to spend between $1.6 billion and $3 billion to resolve roughly 3,000 claims of sexual abuse that allegedly took place in the county’s foster homes, children shelters, and probation camps and halls dating to the 1950s. The county is gearing up to litigate the cases, bringing on 11 law firms to work through the claims — many of which they can’t investigate, they say, because they no longer have the relevant records. Veteran sex abuse attorneys are calling for an outside investigation, saying that not even they realized the full scope of the alleged abuse taking place in county facilities. Experts say the volume is unlike anything they’ve heard of in local government. A spokesperson for Riverside County says it has had 13 cases associated with the Child Victims Act. Orange County says it has had nine such claims.” – “In California, desperate college students compete for spots in trailer park,” by The Wall Street Journal’s Christine Mai-Duc: “Between July 2021 and April 2022, the University of California assisted an estimated 3,165 students struggling with food and housing, a 15% increase from the year before, according to a report by university officials to state legislators. The system’s 10 campuses enroll nearly 300,000 students. In Santa Cruz, the problem has been exacerbated by a flood of remote workers who arrived from the Bay Area during the pandemic and a 2020 wildfire that destroyed 900 housing units countywide. About 9% of UCSC undergraduates reported experiencing homelessness according to a 2020 study by University of California, Los Angeles researchers, the highest at any UC campus.”
| | | MIXTAPE | | | – “S.F. Marriott Hotel illegally kept $9 million in workers’ tips,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Bob Egelko. – “Should Nathan Fletcher's successor be appointed or elected?” by The San Diego Union-Tribune’s Deborah Sullivan Brennan. Compiled by Matthew Brown | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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