Turkish autocracy in limbo

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May 15, 2023 View in browser   By Ari Hawkins Follow Ari on Twitter | Send tips and insights to ahawkins@politico.com Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan narrowly fell below the 50 percent threshold required to win elections on Monday, laying the groundwork for a runoff on May 28, according to preliminary results. The outcome of the Turkish presidential race will determine if the NATO ally on the border of Iran and Syria will remain under Erdoğan’s authoritarian grip, or embrace the democratic path promised by his rival. Numbers game: With 99 percent of ballots counted, Erdoğan had 49.4 percent of the vote Monday morning, according to the state-run news agency Anadolu. His pro-Western opposition, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu of the Republican People's Party, had 44.96. A third candidate, the far-right Sinan Oğan, received about five percent of the vote and touted on Twitter that “Turkish nationalists and Ataturkists are in a key position” to determine the runoff election, per CNN. New vulnerabilities: A deadly February earthquake exacerbated the country’s economic crisis. Public anger over Erdoğan’s handling of the catastrophe fueled the rise of an opposition coalition, which is presenting the gravest threat yet to Erdoğan’s 20-year dominance over Turkish politics. Kremlin’s watching: Kılıçdaroğlu accused Russia of meddling in his country’s election in a Tweet on Friday, telling the country to "get [its] hands off the Turkish state.” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov “strongly” denied the accusation. No matter who wins: Turkey has unnerved its Western allies by maintaining deep economic relations with the Kremlin, presenting a potential barrier to Turkey’s friendship with Europe and especially Washington. THE WEEK AHEAD Monday:  China’s special envoy Li Hui kicks off a trip to Russia, Ukraine, France, Germany and Poland, as Beijing looks to position itself as a war-time negotiator. The U.K. hosts the National Conservatism Conference. Senior Tories and U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio.) are slated to speak. The United Nations will officially commemorate the 75th anniversary of the exodus of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from what is now Israel, after the U.N.’s partition separated the territory into two states. Tuesday:  The U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee votes on a resolution calling for the release of detained Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich. Thursday:  The Black Sea Grain agreement is scheduled to expire, though a deal to extend it appears to be close. Chinese President Xi Jinping chairs a two-day summit in Beijing to shore up relations with five Central Asian countries. Friday:  The G-7 summit opens in Hiroshima, Japan. Members are expected to discuss the Russian invasion and China’s dominance over global trade during the May 19-21 talks. G-7 COUNTRIES EYE THE SUPPLY CHAIN  Finance chiefs from seven of the world’s wealthiest nations are uniting around Kyiv, and grappling with how to approach China ahead of Friday’s finance meeting in Japan. Members concluded talks over the weekend with an agreement to launch a supply chain partnership by the end of the year, according to a meeting communiqué published Saturday, which could limit reliance on Russian energy and Chinese technology. All against Moscow: G-7 officials described the Russian invasion into Ukraine as “one of the biggest uncertainties over the global economic outlook,” and said they would support Kyiv financially for “as long as it takes.” Not-so on China: The sentiment was more ambiguous when it came to Beijing, which the joint statement did not name directly. While Washington has remained aggressive against what U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen classified as China's “economic coercion,” other nations won’t go that far. Japan, for instance, has aimed for a more balanced approach to maintain their close trading relationship with the world’s second largest economy. RUSSIAN GAS IMPORTS BANNED: G-7 nations and the EU agreed to ban Russian gas imports that travel on routes blocked by Moscow, in a decision set to be finalized at the G-7 leaders summit, the Financial Times reports. The move prevents future Russian gas exports on routes to nations like Germany and Poland, where Moscow shut supplies off to last year. GRAIN DEAL DEADLINE: Russian state media reported Thursday that the Black Sea grain deal — set to expire May 18 — will be extended by 60 days. But others are still reporting that a deal is “nearing.” All parties “are approaching an agreement on an extension of the grain agreement period," Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said in a statement Friday, per Reuters. And on Monday, Reuters reported that Ukraine’s Olga Trofimtseva, a foreign ministry ambassador at large, said no additional talks are planned this week, and said she is receiving conflicting signals about the deal’s future. "The situation overall (after talks) has not changed much,” she told reporters. Turkish, Russian, Ukrainian and U.N. delegations had been trying to hash out an extension over two days of talks in Istanbul. The existing agreement, which allows Ukraine grain exports to pass through the blockaded Black Sea, was brokered by the U.N. and Turkey last July to help ease a global food crisis. OPPOSITION PARTIES SECURE LEAD IN THAI ELECTION Pro-democracy parties cruised to victory in Thailand’s national election as results trickled in over the weekend, signaling a stunning rejection of the military government that has ruled for nearly a decade. End of an era: With nearly 100 percent of ballots counted Monday, the progressive Move Forward party was projected to win 151 of the 500-seat House of Representatives, while the other opposition party, Pheu Thai, took 141. Not so fast: Both far outnumbered seats won by the ruling party, though it’s unclear whether the military establishment will accept the results. The election commission is not expected to officially confirm a winner for several weeks. Democratic push: The election was hailed as a chance to reverse the country’s autocratic slide. Thailand, once considered a functioning democracy, has been ruled over by a military establishment that came to power through a government coup in 2014. ZELENSKYY CHARM OFFENSIVE IN EUROPE  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy touched down in Paris Sunday evening for a surprise visit with Emmanuel Macron. The French President promised Kyiv “tens” of new armored vehicles and light tanks, per POLITICO’s Gabriel Gavin and Clea Caulcutt. Shoring up ties: Zelenskyy's visit is only the latest as Ukraine calls on several Western nations to provide heavier weapons and fighter jets ahead of a long-awaited counteroffensive. New aid from Berlin: Zelenskyy met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz among other leaders Sunday. Scholz vowed to provide military support for “as long as necessary.” Ahead of the visit, Germany announced a nearly $3 billion military aid package to help Ukraine against Russia, marking it as the current second largest financial backer of Kyiv after the United States. When in Rome: Zeleskyy also met with Pope Francis and discussed “humanitarian gestures” on Saturday, an apparent reference to the Vatican’s willingness to help return Ukrainian children from Russia, according to a person who spoke to Reuters. Francis did not respond when Zeleskyy requested the Vatican support Ukraine’s 10-point peace plan.   DON’T MISS POLITICO’S HEALTH CARE SUMMIT: The Covid-19 pandemic helped spur innovation in health care, from the wide adoption of telemedicine, health apps and online pharmacies to mRNA vaccines. But what will the next health care innovations look like? Join POLITICO on Wednesday June 7 for our Health Care Summit to explore how tech and innovation are transforming care and the challenges ahead for access and delivery in the United States. REGISTER NOW.     GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS HIGH STAKES TALKS: European Council President Charles Michel said Sunday that an end to decades of violent conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is in sight. “The momentum should be maintained to take decisive steps towards the signing of a comprehensive peace agreement,” Michel said, per Gavin’s reporting. The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan met for talks in Brussels amid renewed tensions between the two countries, which have been battling for control over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave for around three decades. What’s next: Michel added that both sides made “clear progress” over unblocking transport links and suggested a prisoner exchange could be carried out in the coming days. TEMPORARY CALM IN GAZA: A ceasefire brokered by Egyptian officials between Israeli and Palestinian forces in the Gaza Strip appears to be holding after five days of fighting that killed 33 Palestinians and one Israeli. “Quiet will be met with quiet,” said Tzachi Hanegbi, the head of Israel’s National Security Council, who thanked Egypt for its role in the ceasefire, per the Washington Post. AMERICA’S NURSING CRISIS: Health groups are warning that a new rule from the State Department risks halting the stream of international nurses coming to work in the U.S., exacerbating a workforce that is already plagued by shortages. The department, in its May bulletin, said nearly all green card slots available to eligible nurses had been filled. Only people who applied prior to June 1, 2022, can continue with the application process this fiscal year. That could mean thousands of nurses can’t proceed in their applications. Ripple effects: The reduction in foreign visas will affect nursing homes, assisted living facilities and hospice care — which could increase costs and delay care for the elderly and the dying. The U.S. is projected to face a shortage of more than 200,000 nurses in the next few years. Kelly Hooper has more. LATEST ON TITLE 42: Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said crossings at the southern border experienced “a 50 percent drop in the number of encounters versus what we were experiencing earlier in the week, before Title 42 ended at midnight on Thursday,” on CNN’s State of the Union Sunday. Read more from Kelly Garrity. GLOBETROTTERS ODD COUPLE — Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is an unabashed feminist. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is not. Yet, Trudeau’s office touted gender equality as a “shared priority” for both leaders before their meeting in Seoul this week, ahead of the G-7 summit. It’s a fishy claim after Yoon rose to power last year with an anti-feminist agenda that put the country’s Ministry of Gender Equality and Family on notice to be nixed. Global Insider raised the discrepancy during a briefing call with senior Canadian government officials Friday about Trudeau’s upcoming trip. Canadian shrug: “We have our priorities, and the government of the day in Korea has its priorities,” a senior government official said about the “shared priority” claim. “It would be a mistake to think that there are closed ears on either side on different issues.” The official provided the briefing to reporters on condition of anonymity. Hard and soft power: Yoon’s recent U.S. visit brought South Korea’s security and defense concerns to the fore — and his rendition of Don McLean’s “American Pie” gave people something else to talk about other than a world leader’s position on feminism. DON’T DRINK THE TEA: Since Russia’s invasion, the tempo of mysterious deaths of prominent Russians has escalated, with at least seven oligarchs dying in strange circumstances. So how much danger is Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner paramilitary group, in? Jamie Dettmer, opinion editor for POLITICO in Europe, examines Prigozhin's delicate dynamic with the Russian president. MOVES Former Governor of Delaware Jack Markell was nominated Friday by the Biden administration to become ambassador to Italy. The U.S. Senate confirmed Geeta Rao Gupta as ambassador-at-Large for Global Women’s Issues in the State Department, it announced in a tweet. More here. BRAIN FOOD ‘NEW WORLD ECONOMIC ORDER’: The Biden administration is on a mission to ditch the old paradigms of globalization, free trade and a reliance on markets. But his team hasn’t quite reached a consensus on how that new era would function, writes Gavin Bade. Thanks to Zi-Ann Lum, editor Heidi Vogt and producer Sophie Gardner. SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: D.C. Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | Paris Playbook| Ottawa Playbook| EU Confidential | | Digital Bridge | China Watcher | Berlin Bulletin | D.C. Influence | EU Influence | London Influence | Paris Influence   GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE.       Follow us

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