| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Ari Hawkins | |  Recep Tayyip Erdoğan would keep Turkey’s government running under the executive presidential system he ushered in six years ago, granting him broad powers over agencies and ministries, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In effect, Turkey’s foreign policy will be whatever Erdoğan wants it to be. | Emrah Gure/AP Photo | | With help from Matt Berg, Maggie Miller and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Turkey heads to the polls Sunday for what could be one of the most consequential elections in the country’s history — and the results will have an immense impact on the world. In one corner is RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN, the longtime strongman who could solidify his autocratic rule over the country with a win. But in the other corner is opposition leader KEMAL KILIÇDAROĞLU, who as it stand is posing the greatest challenge yet to Erdoğan’s 20-year rule. It’s highly likely that neither candidate will get more than 50 percent of the vote, which means the contest could be pushed into a second-round runoff on May 28. The stakes couldn’t be higher for the NATO ally. “If Erdoğan wins, he’s going to stay at Turkey’s helm as its sultan,” said SONER CAGAPTAY, director of the Turkish research program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Either the autocrats will win and the democracy side will disappear while he’s on the scene, or he’ll lose, and Turkey will revert back to democracy completely.” Asked about the election, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY wouldn’t say if the administration feared Erdoğan was taking steps to rig the vote in his favor. “We’re going to let the Turkish people make their decision,” he said during a Friday news conference, adding “we obviously want to see free and fair elections.” A senior U.S. official, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive internal thinking, said the administration doesn’t want to signal its outcome preferences one way or the other. "Last thing we would want is to give anyone fodder to claim American interference," the official told NatSec Daily. Officials and experts are adamant that the national security policies of the two men would diverge in myriad ways, but two in particular stand out. The first is Erdoğan would continue to be extremely cozy with Russia, causing further friction between Washington, Ankara and Moscow. Kiliçdaroğlu, on the other hand, is expected to be more aligned with the transatlantic community. That doesn’t necessarily mean Turkey under Kiliçdaroğlu would immediately start sanctioning the Kremlin over the war in Ukraine –– Russia remains an important economic partner — but Ankara would be more likely to side with the U.S. on some key issues, including ending the purchases of Russian weapons systems. “A window would be opening” for better U.S.-Turkey ties, said ALPER COSKUN, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former Turkish diplomat. It’s widely believed that either leader would green light Sweden’s accession into NATO — but Erdoğan would further delay the process. He would likely use Sweden as a bargaining chip to extract a one-on-one meeting with President JOE BIDEN during this summer’s NATO summit in Vilnius. But Kiliçdaroğlu “would do it right away as a sign of goodwill to the U.S. into NATO,” said Cagaptay. The second shift is a little more technical but still consequential. Erdoğan would keep Turkey’s government running under the executive presidential system he ushered in six years ago, granting him broad powers over agencies and ministries, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In effect, Turkey’s foreign policy will be whatever Erdoğan wants it to be. Kiliçdaroğlu and his party advocate for a return to a parliamentary system, giving the Foreign Affairs ministry more control over policy formulation and implementation. It would also return checks and balances across the government as opposed to centralizing authority in one man. Biden likes to say that one of the defining challenges of our time is the battle between autocracy and democracy. In Turkey, that battle will play out in real time this weekend.
| | | | GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | CHINA TO SEND ENVOY TO KYIV, MOSCOW: China is sending a special representative to Ukraine, Russia and multiple European countries next week as part of an effort to help reach a political settlement amid the war in Ukraine, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Friday, per our own NICOLAS CAMUT. China’s special representative on Eurasian affairs LI HUI, who was also previously China’s ambassador in Moscow, will visit both Russia and Kyiv, as well as France, Germany and Poland to “have communications on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis,” WANG WENBIN told reporters. In spite of being Moscow’s top ally, Beijing has sought to position itself as a peace broker between Ukraine and Russia in recent months. But the EU and NATO have been critical of Chinese President XI JINPING’s attempts to pose as a middleman. In March, a POLITICO investigation found that several Chinese companies, including one with ties to the government, had sent assault rifles, drone parts and body armor to Russian entities. NOT TRUMP’S DEPLOYMENT: The 1,500 troops heading to the southern border to assist with migrant cases following the expiration of Title 42 are operating quite a bit differently than those deployed by former President DONALD TRUMP. “Trump allowed active-duty troops to temporarily detain and search migrants. Soldiers laid hundreds of miles of concertina wire and erected temporary barriers while Trump funneled billions of dollars meant for military construction projects toward the wall. The troops headed to the border this week, on the other hand, will be armed only for self-defense and will carry out backroom tasks,” our own LARA SELIGMAN, JOE GOULD and CONNOR O’BRIEN report. The Biden administration wishes they could send law enforcement officers to the border, but the Department of Homeland Security is short on personnel and funds. As a result, it is troops — not civilians — headed to the front with Mexico to free up border agents. ‘PRE-NEGOTIATIONS’ START IN SUDAN: After almost a week of talks, Sudan’s warring factions signed an agreement allowing humanitarian aid to resume. Saudi and U.S. facilitators are hopeful the framework is a step toward an eventual ceasefire, reports KAREN DeYOUNG for the Washington Post. State Department and Saudi officials told reporters on Thursday that representatives of the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese military signed a “Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan” which recognizes their international moral and legal obligations in the midst of conflict. U.S. officials acknowledged the limited nature of what they called “pre-negotiations” and said they will not halt fighting on the ground, on a background call to reporters Thursday. But one official, who spoke to reporters under the condition of anonymity, said the deal marks “the first step of what we hope to achieve here on the ground in Jeddah while the parties are here.” The next step is to facilitate a “short-term ceasefire” of up to 10 days. Officials added that they hope talks on future goals will begin as early as Friday, according to WaPo. TENSIONS RISE IN GAZA: Palestinian militants fired rockets toward Jerusalem while Israeli airstrikes pounded the Gaza Strip on Friday as efforts to reach a ceasefire continue to stall, writes FARES AKRAM and ISABEL EBRE for the Associated Press. Conflict ignited on Tuesday, when Israeli airstrikes killed three Islamic Jihad commanders and at least ten civilians. Israel claimed it was retaliating for a barrage of rockets fired last week. Since then, at least 28 people in Palestine and one in Israel, have been killed in reciprocal fire. The escalation comes as work from Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations to negotiate a ceasefire show signs of faltering. On Friday, an Israeli diplomat said Israel had broken off ceasefire talks entirely following the latest rockets from Gaza and is preparing a “significant” response, per the Times of Israel. Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU echoed the sentiment in a Twitter post that read “we continue.” IHSAN ATTAYA, a senior Islamic Jihad official, said mediations have stalled because Israel can’t guarantee that it will stop the targeted killings of militants, Al Jazeera reports. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring Sen. TAMMY DUCKWORTH (D-Ill.), who we spoke with last week about her new bill to enhance military readiness with partners around the world. “My body doesn't produce the enzymes to metabolize alcohol,” Duckworth explained, so “I use Ritual, the zero-proof stuff. I like a gin and tonic, made with grapefruit tonic.” As for where she’s sipping the cocktail, it’s best back home. “My house in Illinois overlooks a little lake in the backyard, and it’s nice to sit out there on a hot day and enjoy a cold G and T,” she said. Cheers, senator! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @Lawrence_Ukenye, @reporterjoe and @_AriHawkins.
| | WRONG COUNTRY: A Trump campaign attack ad used stock images of Ukraine to illustrate the alleged suffering of Americans under Biden, the New York Post’s STEVEN NELSON reports. “Ukrainian photographers whose work was used in the commercial say the images don’t show Americans at all,” per Nelson. One said a scene depicting a couple doing some home shopping was actually from Lviv in 2021, before Russia invaded Ukraine. In another scene, a man angry in his basement wasn’t American, but a Ukrainian actor trying to show the plight of his countryman under the constant threat of airstrikes since the war began. “We were one of those who stayed in our city to help people and the army and we continued our work of filming and when we were doing this filming, we went down to the basement many times in order to hide from rocket fire,” said YEVHEN SHKOLENKO, owner of the company that produced the image. Trump has yet to take a side in the war Russia started against Ukraine. His main goal, he said during a CNN town hall this week, is to stop Ukrainians and Russians from dying.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | NOMINATE WALKER: Two cyber-focused lawmakers want the Biden administration to officially nominate KEMBA WALKER as the next national cyber director, Cyberscoop’s CHRISTIAN VASQUEZ reports. Sen. ANGUS KING (I-Maine) and Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.), who co-chair the Cyberspace Solarium Commission, wrote a letter to Biden urging Walker to move from acting chief to the confirmed boss. “Acting NCD Walden is a proven, forward-thinking leader who can seamlessly step into the permanent position today,” they wrote. “We both routinely talk with private sector leaders and they also find Kemba to be a superb choice for NCD.” Walker has been the acting director since February following CHRIS INGLIS’ departure.
| | IT’S ALIVE: Hold on to your covers, but it appears that at least one part of what the littoral combat ship was designed to do will finally work. The catch? It’s just on one ship, and it’ll work in 2025, our friends at Morning Defense report for Pros!). The Navy has declared initial operational capability on its mine countermeasures mission package, Rear Adm. CASEY MOTON told reporters Thursday. But there are questions over how many ships it will be on, as the Navy is retiring LCS’ early to make room for buying new frigates. The MCM package includes the Airborne Laser Mine Detection System and the Airborne Mine Neutralization System, which are used by MH-60 helicopters, along with the Unmanned Influence Sweep System and a mine-hunting sonar, which are towed behind an unmanned surface vessel.
| | | | JOINT CHIEFS SHUFFLE, REVISITED: Sen. King wants SASC to consider changing the terms of the members of the Joint Chiefs to prevent an exodus like the one Pentagon brass will experience over the coming months. “Something like two-thirds of the Joint Chiefs of Staff are all retiring this summer, and I will be [working through] the Armed Services Committee to require a staggered term so that this doesn’t happen in the future,” King told our colleague MAGGIE MILLER. “I think we should have a system like we have in the Senate,” King said, referencing how one-third of the chamber is up for reelection every two years. “I think that’s an organizational and a policy mistake.”
| | | | DON’T MISS THE POLITICO ENERGY SUMMIT: A new world energy order is emerging and America’s place in it is at a critical juncture. Join POLITICO on Thursday, May 18 for our first-ever energy summit to explore how the U.S. is positioning itself in a complicated energy future. We’ll explore progress on infrastructure and climate funding dedicated to building a renewable energy economy, Biden’s environmental justice proposals, and so much more. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | NO ZELENSKYY AT EUROVISION: Ukraine is hosting this year’s Eurovision Song Contest (though it’ll be hosted in Britain due to the war,), but President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY won’t be allowed to address the competition’s large audience. Letting Zelenskyy speak about the need to support Ukraine would undermine the non-political nature of the continental event, the European Broadcasting Union ruled. The request “to address the audience at the Eurovision Song Contest, whilst made with laudable intentions, regrettably cannot be granted by the European Broadcasting Union management as it would be against the rules of the event,” the organization said per the Associated Press’ JILL LAWLESS. However, a spokesperson for Zelenskyy’s office denied that the president asked to speak during the event. This isn’t the only event that won’t feature a ubiquitous Zelenskyy speech. The Oscars and the FIFA World Cup also declined to feature a video address by the Ukrainian leader. (NatSec Daily can confirm Alex will still be watching the song contest, and also the Netflix comedy, throughout the weekend.)
| | — Deputy Secretary of State WENDY SHERMAN will soon step down from her post, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said in a Friday statement. Sherman, the first woman to serve as State’s No. 2, is expected to step down from her post in the summer. CNN’s KYLIE ATWOOD broke the news of Sherman’s departure. — SOPHIA BRILL is now associate counsel at the White House. She most recently was senior counsel in the national security division at the Department of Justice.
| | | |   | | | | | — ANDREI SOLDATOV and IRINA BOROGAN, Foreign Affairs: Why Putin needs Wagner — ZACHARY GRIFFITHS, War On The Rocks: U.S. military observers and why they are needed in Ukraine — JUSTIN GEST, POLITICO: The expiration of Title 42 is a reality check
| | — Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: Prospects for G7 Leadership in a Fractured World — Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Energy Security and Economic Stability with Congressmember KELLY ARMSTRONG — Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: Climate change, food insecurity, and migration in the Middle East — American Enterprise Institute, 2 p.m.: U.S. Perspectives on Global Migration — Brookings Institution, 4 p.m.: The future of the U.S.-Brazil relationship — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 5 p.m.: The Case for an Australian National Security Strategy Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who prefers to centralize power in her executive editor role. We also thank our producer, Sinobia Aiden, who would usher in a parliamentary system to return power to the writers.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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