‘Done deal’: Stoltenberg to remain NATO chief

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Jun 29, 2023 View in browser   By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Ari Hawkins The move to retain NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was widely rumored and expected ahead of a major NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania next month. | Virginia Mayo/AP Photo With help from Suzanne Lynch Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Just when JENS STOLTENBERG thought he was out, NATO pulls him back in. The current secretary general will keep his post for another year, yet another extension for the Norwegian who is seen as crucial to keeping the alliance united as Russia’s war in Ukraine persists. Four people told Alex and LILI BAYER that Stoltenberg will remain in place. A U.S. official said the secretary general’s leadership extension is “a done deal.” Asked if that was the case, a senior diplomat from Western Europe said “yes,” adding it “will be formalized next week.” The move to retain Stoltenberg was widely rumored and expected ahead of a major NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania next month, billed as one of the most important alliance gatherings in years amid Russia’s war in Ukraine. Allies wanted to make a decision on whether to keep the secretary general in place or find new leadership before the July 11-12 meeting, which comes as Ukraine’s counteroffensive stalls and after a rebellion last weekend by Russian Wagner Group mercenaries exposed the largest crack in Vladimir Putin’s regime in two decades. The former Norwegian prime minister has been serving as NATO’s chief since 2014 and has already had his mandate extended multiple times. Allies spent months mulling a successor, with leaders such as Danish Prime Minister METTE FREDERIKSEN and U.K. Defense Secretary BEN WALLACE under consideration, before opting to stick with the status quo. Stoltenberg himself has long maintained he was not actively lobbying to stay in Brussels. Asked about his plans at a press conference on Tuesday, he insisted his view had not changed. “When it comes to myself, I have made my position clear many, many times,” he said. “I don't seek an extension, and that is what I’ve stated many times before,” he added. But a senior diplomat from northern Europe said Stoltenberg is going nowhere: “I believe we are getting there, and all allies would clearly want to see him continue.” Read the full story. A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today. Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.   The Inbox ‘GENERAL ARMAGEDDON’ GONE?: Top Russian army general SERGEI SUROVIKIN was detained as part of the Kremlin’s crackdown on officials who were sympathetic to the Wagner Group’s rebellion, the Financial Times’ MAX SEDDON, HENRY FOY and POLINA IVANOVA report. Surovikin knew about Wagner chief YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN’s mutiny plans in advance and hasn’t been heard from for several days, three people familiar with the matter told FT. It’s unclear whether he has been charged in connection with the uprising or if he’s being held for interrogation. His disappearance comes as Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN attempts to restore order following the failed rebellion over the weekend. Those who have sympathized with Wagner have disappeared in recent days, while Defense Minister SERGEI SHOIGU — who Prigozhin sought to unseat — has been making public appearances. Putin “was able to see who did what on that day. And he’s now cleaning house,” a Western government official told FT, adding that “we understand that there will be more people who will follow.” EU LEADERS MEET: Developments in Russia are dominating a two-day meeting of EU leaders’ that kicked off today in Brussels, our own SUZANNE LYNCH writes in. Addressing leaders, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said that the air-defense systems provided to Ukraine had saved lives and been highly successful. He also welcomed the EU’s recent pledge of 50 billion euros to Ukraine (it still requires approval signed off by top members of the bloc). According to a draft communique to be issued by leaders and seen by POLITICO, the EU will pledge “security commitments” to Ukraine — a controversial issue for the bloc’s neutral member states like Austria and Ireland, and something that’s usually seen as the domain of NATO. Also on their mind? Belarus. “We are extremely concerned about the developments in Belarus,” Lithuanian President GITANAS NAUSĖDA said as he arrived at the summit. “Nobody knows when they could turn against us,” he said, referring to the possible presence of Wagner troops in the country. Latvian Prime Minister KRIŠJĀNIS KARIŅŠ also said his country is watching the developments in Belarus. Wagner chief Prigozhin likely will be joined by “an unknown number of very trained and skilled fighters,” Kariņš said. “That does potentially pose a threat” — not a frontal military threat, he specified, but rather, the threat of “attempted infiltration in Europe for unknown purposes.” U.S. TECH USED ON BALLOON: American tech aboard the Chinese spy balloon that floated across the U.S. earlier this year helped the vessel collect photos and videos — but likely didn’t transmit that back to Beijing, the Wall Street Journal’s NANCY YOUSSEF reports. Defense and intelligence agencies investigating the aircraft that was downed four months ago found that the balloon was packed with U.S. commercial equipment, some of which could be bought online, along with specialized Chinese tech that could transmit data back to Beijing, U.S. officials told WSJ. It was an inventive attempt at spying for China, the officials said. The fact that the balloon doesn’t appear to have sent data back to China contradicts reports from April that the it was able to do so. ATACMS TO UKRAINE?: The Biden administration is “considering” the approval of the Army Tactical Missile System to Ukraine, which would provide Kyiv with a long-range capability it has long asked for. “Officials in the U.S. and Europe have seen signs that previously reluctant quarters of the U.S. government, namely the White House, have come to see an urgent need to bolster Ukraine’s fight in the coming weeks,” the Wall Street Journal’s VIVIAN SALAMA reports. In May, President JOE BIDEN said the delivery of ATACMS was “still in play.” A senior administration official today told NatSec Daily “we are in the same position we were a month ago when the president” made that statement, adding that they were “not aware of any imminent decisions.” Last year, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said the administration was wary of sending ATACMS because their use to strike deep inside Russia could spark World War III. MACRON MOVES TO SQUASH PROTESTS: President EMMANUEL MACRON is set to deploy 40,000 police offices across France to quell violence that engulfed cities and towns in the wake of an officer shooting of a 17-year-old driver that is under investigation, writes our own CLEA CAULCUTT. FOUR MORE: The U.N. Security Council should add India, Japan, Brazil and Germany as permanent members, Britain’s foreign secretary said Thursday. “Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine is a calculated assault on the U.N. charter, and on the central principles of an international order that was designed, above all, to bring an end to all attempts at conquest and annexation,” JAMES CLEVERLY declared during an address at the Chatham House think tank. “I know this is a bold reform. But it will usher the Security Council into the 2020s.” He also said the G-20 should let the African Union into the club, agreeing with Biden on the issue. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @_AriHawkins and @JGedeon1.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     2024 PENCE MEETS ZELENSKYY: Former Vice President MIKE PENCE met with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY in a surprise trip to Kyiv today, the first time a GOP presidential candidate has made such a visit since the Russian invasion, our own LAWRENCE UKENYE reports. Pence, who has been a strong advocate for Ukraine since the war began, last visited the country in March 2022, long before he announced his candidacy. During a visit to the presidential palace, Pence told Zelenskyy that the U.S. will stand with Ukraine “until victory is achieved but then justice is also achieved,” CNN’s VERONICA STRACQUALURSI reports. RFKJ’S BORDER PLAN: It’s “not that hard” to seal the southern border, says Democratic presidential candidate ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. When pushed on the topic during a NewsNation town hall Wednesday night, Kennedy said a physical barrier is needed in some highly populated areas — and dodged a question about whether he supports finishing DONALD TRUMP’s border wall. He also advocated for using advanced technology to track undocumented immigrants crossing. “I don't think that it's going to be possible to get an immigration reform package through Congress until we seal the border,” he said, adding that he would expand legal immigration if elected president. Keystrokes RUSSIAN MIL BLOGGERS IN SPOTLIGHT: Russian military bloggers who have amassed large followings for their up-to-the-minute war reporting on Telegram now walk a tightrope after the Wagner Group’s rebellion. “The reaction across the war blogger community was very, very cautious,” ETO BUZIASHVILI, a research associate at the Atlantic Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab, told Wired’s MORGAN MEAKER in a story out today. “They were searching for a side to take that would be beneficial for them.” Some of the bloggers side with the Kremlin while others don’t necessarily agree with everything. The voenkory, as the cadre is called, now may have less space to criticize Moscow’s war policies. With Prigozhin exiled to Belarus, “the military bloggers have lost a high-profile ally willing to speak openly about military failures in Ukraine,” per Meaker. Earlier this year, Putin passed censorship laws that could see anyone “discrediting” the military imprisoned for up to five years.   LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.     The Complex BUDGET BOOST BUST: Canada’s expected to boost its military spending after a government review, but allies aren’t getting their hopes up that the boost will meet expectations. "I'd be surprised if the defense review doesn't disappoint," a former senior official in the Canadian defense department told Reuters’ STEVE SCHERER. Canada has lagged behind NATO allies with its spending, but allies worry that with global threats including the war in Ukraine and mounting tension with China, the country’s credibility on the world stage could suffer. Canada would need to spend up to $13.6 billion more each year for five years to meet NATO expectations. "We say nice things but do not invest," the former official said. On the Hill HERZOG’S HILL DAY: Israeli President ISAAC HERZOG is slated to give a joint address to members of Congress in July, our own NANCY VU reports. Lawmakers announced that Herzog will address both chambers on July 19, delivering a speech that's expected to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the statehood of Israel, and reaffirm the U.S.-Israel relationship. He’ll become the first president from his country to address Congress since 1987. The visit stems from an October 2022 invitation from then-Speaker NANCY PELOSI and Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER for the foreign leader to speak to Congress. Broadsides LOOK HARDER: Twenty-one human rights and antiwar organizations are urging Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN to ensure the probe into the reported killing of a civilian in Syria — when a “senior al Qaeda leader” was the intended target — will be thorough. On May 3, Central Command launched a strike to take out a prominent terrorist. Instead, they killed LOTFI HASSAN MISTO, a 56-year old-bricklayer, according to his family. DOD has now opened an official investigation into the issue. The organizations, including Human Rights Watch and the Center for Civilians in Conflict, in a Thursday letter want DOD to give “significant weight” to external reporting and witness testimony, publicly release the probe’s results and make amends “if the department finds a civilian was killed.” EU RIVALS: Leaders from 27 countries in Europe discussed China as part of a two-day summit that started today, underscoring a split at the top levels of EU leadership between European Council President CHARLES MICHEL and the President of the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, URSULA VON DER LEYEN, per our own STUART LAU, BARBARA MOENS and Lynch. “We now have a major problem where the European Commission president listens to the United States and the European Council president listens to China,” one EU official said. “It’s not new, but increasingly the Schuman area is a playground instead of leveling the playing field with China.” Michel and his team have also criticized Von der Leyen’s tougher China line behind closed doors. He holds the pen on the drafting of the summit conclusions. Some EU officials even see the conciliatory language in the draft summit statement as Michel’s response to von der Leyen’s punchier economic security strategy.     Transitions — South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL appointed KIM YUNG HO, a political science professor and outspoken critic of North Korea’s human rights record, as Seoul’s new unification minister. — DANIEL SHAPIRO was tapped for the position of senior adviser for regional integration, tasked with deepening the Abraham Accords and building the Negev Forum, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN announced Thursday. What to Read — KAJA KALLAS, POLITICO: Let’s build a combat-effective Europe — THOMAS GRAHAM, The New York Times: Lukashenko proves once a tool, always a tool — ELIAS GROLL, CyberScoop: Does the world need an arms control treaty for AI? Tomorrow Today — Hudson Institute, 9 a.m.: The Third Anniversary of the Hong Kong National Security Law — Henry L. Stimson Center, 10 a.m.: U.S. Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability and the Global Fragility Act — National Press Club, 12 p.m.: NPC Headliners Luncheon: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Milley — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: A Racial Equity Lens to U.S. Foreign Policy Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who can’t get allies to remove us from our leadership post. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who we all agree should remain producer for life. A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today. Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward   Follow us

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