TICK TOCK: The government will shut down in three days if Congress can’t pass a funding patch. FURLOUGH, SWEET CHARIOT If you’re a federal worker who doesn’t know what the future holds, we’re here to tell you: Your duly elected Congress doesn’t know what the future holds, either. But this much is clear: Lawmakers are racing toward a shutdown, and it’s becoming harder by the minute to see how they can find their way to any of the potential off-ramps. Here’s an up-to-the-minute guide to some scenarios that could avoid a Sunday shutdown — and why they aren’t happening: — The Senate jams the House. The first part of this plan is straightforward enough: The Senate has already taken lopsided procedural votes to advance a clean-ish 45-day continuing resolution. The House could take that stopgap and pass it into law on a similarly overwhelming bipartisan vote, avoiding a shutdown. Easy peasy. Why it’s not happening: For starters, there’s no time. Because there isn’t unanimous consent to speed up the timeline in the Senate, as Burgess laid out, the earliest the CR could pass the chamber is Sunday — after the shutdown is already underway. As for the House, Speaker Kevin McCarthy has promised his conference’s right flank he won’t put a clean CR on the floor in any case, lest he put his gavel at risk. — The House jams the Senate. In the reverse scenario, the House manages to go first — sending a conservative 30-day, GOP-only CR over to the Senate. Rather than risk being seen as responsible for a shutdown, Senate Democrats capitulate and agree to fast-track the Halloween punt. Why it’s not happening: Where even to begin. McCarthy has found it thus far impossible to unite his conference behind a CR of any length, and his latest plan — to advance a conservative stopgap tomorrow — is in serious jeopardy after the House Freedom Caucus threatened today to vote against it absent a broader appropriations plan. The Senate, meanwhile, is showing zero indications they’re buying what the House would be selling — across-the-board spending cuts, zeroed-out Ukraine aid and major border policy changes. — The House GOP moderates revolt. We’ve toyed with this scenario several times in Huddle this week, where centrist Republicans join with Democrats to hijack the House floor and pass a clean CR using rarely used procedural feints, such as a discharge petition or defeating the previous question. That would get around McCarthy’s reluctance to put a bipartisan stopgap on the floor. Why it’s not happening: There’s not near enough pressure right now to compel the moderates, even those in the toughest districts, to break ranks with McCarthy. As we noted yesterday, lawmakers on both sides say these deals are made under major duress — and that likely means being in a shutdown not three days away from a shutdown. — The Senate dealmakers go to work. There have been real bipartisan they-said-it-couldn’t-be-done moments in Congress in recent memory, from an infrastructure deal to a gun control bill. All have been the work of cross-aisle Senate gangs, and one appears to be coming together now to discuss a potential deal on border funding — meeting, in fact, as this edition of Huddle hits your inbox. Why it’s not happening: For one, there are real doubts over how a border deal would be greeted by House Republicans, who want much more than a few billion dollars, and Senate Democrats, who have been pushing for a clean stopgap. For another, the clock is ticking, and this gang knows it: We overheard four of those involved — Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.), Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), Todd Young (R-Ind.) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) — discussing on the Senate floor what they'll need to do if they manage to get a deal. Getting it attached to the pending CR will require unanimous consent, which means starting to talk to more conservative senators. THE BOTTOM LINE: A shutdown is coming. Have you asked your boss yet if you’re an essential worker? — Daniella Diaz, with an assist from Burgess Everett
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