THE BUZZ — You can be certain Gavin Newsom and Ron DeSantis will take the stage tonight in Alpharetta, Ga. prepared to roast each other’s states. It’s a years-old storyline between the two governors, who use social media and cable news hits to jab one another on everything from Covid to taxes to Mickey Mouse (seriously). Now, they’ll meet face-to-face for a 90-minute debate. And, with all due respect to esteemed FOX News moderator Sean Hannity, we don’t expect him to referee. We did our best to anticipate their talking points, so that when you’re watching tonight you’ll have a cheat sheet to separate facts from spin. But first, the political stakes — After months of campaigning, DeSantis has been unable to break through the Trump ceiling, polling at the top of the heap among Republican newcomers but still far behind the former president, who has an ironclad grip on the party. Taking shots at Newsom, his most reliable foil and a surrogate for President Joe Biden, is an effort to show Republicans that he’s the best guy to take on Democrats in 2024. For Newsom, this is a chance to raise his national name ID, and make himself useful to the Biden administration. The Democratic governor insists he’s not running in 2024 (and at this point, we believe him). But don’t count him out for a 2028 or 2032 campaign. COVID-19 California enacted some of the toughest pandemic restrictions in the nation, while Florida chose to keep businesses and schools open. Comparisons can be difficult because California has many more people and Florida’s population is older and more likely to become seriously ill from the virus. Adjusting for differences in age and population, the CDC reports Florida’s death rate was notably higher than California’s in 2021, according to the latest available data, with 111.7 deaths per 100,000, compared to California’s 99.9. A recent Los Angeles Times analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University through March 2023 found California had the lowest death rate: 2,560 for every 1 million people. Florida’s rate was far higher, according to the data, with 4,044 Covid fatalities for every 1 million people. On vaccine mandates: California required certain people to receive the Covid-19 vaccine, including health care workers and K-12 school employees, Florida took the opposite approach — with DeSantis signing legislation that prohibited both private and public sector employers, as well as educational institutions, from requiring vaccines. HOMELESSNESS Newsom has taken more aggressive measures than his predecessors to address homelessness, allocating over $15 billion to move people indoors and expand services and directing the state’s transportation department to clear encampments near highways. Despite those efforts, California had the highest rate of homelessness of any state in 2022, with 44 people experiencing homelessness out of every 10,000. Florida, in contrast, had one of the lowest rates — 12 for every 10,000 people. TAXES This is one of DeSantis’ most reliable refrains: Californians pay higher taxes than other states, including Florida. There is some truth to that. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation reports that California has one of the highest tax burdens in the nation, ranking 46 compared to Florida at 11. California also has a higher corporate income tax rate than Florida: 8.84 percent compared to 5.5 percent. On the California exodus: DeSantis loves to argue that Americans “vote with their feet,” and that California has been losing residents due to its higher cost of living. It’s true that a growing number of Californians have been moving to other states, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. And while it’s impossible to track motivation, we can see where they’re going. PPIC found that, between 2020 and 2021, Idaho and Nevada had the highest rate of California transplants, followed by Oregon and Arizona. But in terms of raw numbers, Texas has the largest net outflow from California, PPIC found, totaling more than 80,000 people over the two-year period. Florida also gained some Californians, but not nearly as many as Texas or states bordering California. CRIME Before the GOP debate in Simi Valley this year DeSantis spoke about meeting multiple California crime victims, and you can expect him to revisit that well tonight. Newsom has rebuffed such attacks, saying that Florida’s per-capita murder rate is higher than California’s. Here are the stats: California’s homicide rate was 6.4 per 100,000 people in 2021, according to the CDC, compared to Florida at 7.4. GOOD MORNING. Happy Thursday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. Check back tomorrow for the debate highlights.
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