| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | Presented by The U.S. Chamber of Commerce | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | BREAKING — “Michigan Supreme Court won't hear appeal seeking to block Trump from state's primary ballot,” by the Detroit News’ Beth LeBlanc: “The Supreme Court's Wednesday order blocks efforts to disqualify [DONALD] TRUMP from the primary ballot under the Insurrection Clause.” THE STEPBACK — “Biden Looks to Change His Endgame in Ukraine,” by Michael Hirsh in POLITICO Magazine: “Already faced with a brutal re-election challenge in 2024, President JOE BIDEN is trying to avoid one more nightmarish headline in the year ahead: How Biden Lost Ukraine.”
|  Nikki Haley is entering crunch time to see if she can actually close the gap on Donald Trump's lead among the GOP presidential field. | Scott Olson/Getty Images | HALEY’S COMET — We’re less than three weeks out from the start of primary voting, and the biggest question in presidential politics right now is whether NIKKI HALEY can pull off the impossible. This morning, a trio of stories handicap whether the former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador can somehow wrest the GOP nomination from Trump in the coming weeks. — In New Hampshire, where Haley begins a three-day swing this morning, CNN’s Ebony Davis writes about Haley’s scramble to close the gap there with Trump. While the former president continues to lead in state polling, standing at 44 percent in a recent CBS/YouGov poll, Haley has gained on him and now sits at 29 percent. Haley returns to the Granite State today with a new pep in her step after securing the much-coveted endorsement of Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU. The popular state executive now appears in Haley’s ads and is expected to hit the trail to boost her as the most viable Trump alternative. But Haley will also face new attacks on the ground from the Trump campaign, which has launched campaign ads hitting Haley for allegedly flip-flopping on a gas tax. — The AP’s Meg Kinnard this morning takes a look at Haley’s home state of South Carolina, where the Feb. 24 primary “could be the last chance for anyone other than Trump to prove they can survive.” And yet, despite her Palmetto pedigree, the state has only “shifted closer to Trump in the near decade since [Haley] last ran for state office, threatening her ability to tap into her local roots to notch the victory she has promised,” Kinnard notes. Case in point: Trump has the backing of almost all high-profile Republicans in the state. And more than 50,000 people attended Trump’s July 4 rally in Pickens; “Haley, meanwhile, set a record for her campaign last month with 2,500 people along the state’s southern coast.” The stakes are high for Haley, as Kinnard writes: “A home state primary loss has devastated previous campaigns, including [MARCO] RUBIO, who dropped out of the 2016 primary after a blowout loss to Trump in Florida. Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN dropped out of the 2020 Democratic race after losing several primaries in one day, including in her home state of Massachusetts.” — Over at the New York Times, Jazime Ulloa chronicles Haley’s “bold strategy” to beat Trump: “Play it safe.” Haley, as Ulloa notes, loves to say this of her critics: “If they punch me, I punch back — and I punch back harder.” Yet that’s not exactly what she does. Sure, she gently criticizes Trump on spending and his worship of dictators. But she’s notably held her fire, choosing jabs that are “instead surgical, dry and policy-driven,” Ulloa points out. Indeed, Haley has received criticism from the Never Trump crowd and digs in the media for dodging Trump questions and shying away from direct confrontation with the former president. But those rebukes ignore political reality: In GOP politics right now, any Trump successor will have to toe a fine line, if not embrace him outright. What’s worked for Haley is a cautious, disciplined approach that’s calibrated to unite all factions of the GOP. She rarely deviates from her stump speech, Ulloa points out. And she’s cautious with and skeptical of reporters. — Back here at Playbook, we’ve taken Haley’s campaign seriously from the start, recognizing her immense political skills and ability to cross many of the modern GOP’s internal divides — not to mention her potential strength in a general election matchup. On one hand, her strategy is working: Despite many others writing her off early in the cycle, Haley has outlasted and surged past most of her non-Trump rivals. On the other hand, her campaign has been shadowed by one unavoidable question: Can any amount of talent, money and discipline overcome Trump? The answer is coming soon enough.
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce: Join us for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s annual State of American Business event January 11 to discover how innovation enables businesses to serve customers, solve problems and strengthen society. During our biggest event of the year, you will hear from U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Suzanne P. Clark and other leading CEOs highlighting how America’s free enterprise system is crucial for the long-term success of our country. | | | Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
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“I don’t give anybody advice unless on fashion,” Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) said in an interview on whether Biden should campaign more in Pennsylvania. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | HOODIE WISDOM — It’s not an overstatement to say Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN had a rocky start to his Senate career. Just six weeks after being sworn in while still recovering from a life-altering stroke, the Pennsylvania Democrat checked himself into a psychiatric unit for depression. But in recent months, Fetterman has hit his stride. He’s become something of a political celebrity due to his hulking frame, odd choice of grubby wardrobe, snarky quips and, especially, his trolling of his own party — even progressives who helped propel him to the nomination in Keystone state. This morning, our colleague Holly Otterbein has a fun Q&A with Fetterman that’s worth your time. A few of our favorites … On whether Biden should campaign more in his home state … “I don’t give anybody advice unless on fashion. … All I do know is that the president will win Pennsylvania. And I do believe if he wins Pennsylvania, and I believe he will, he will be a second-term president.” On Biden’s poor polling … “But that doesn’t really matter. There’s a whole lifetime in politics between now and next November.” On one particular Biden critic … “I’ll use this [as] another opportunity to tell JAMES CARVILLE to shut the fuck up. Like I said, my man hasn’t been relevant since grunge was a thing. And I don’t know why he believes it’s helpful to say these kinds of things about an incredibly difficult circumstance with an incredibly strong and decent and excellent president.” On voter worries about inflation … “It’s going to be a gut check kind of a situation … [D]o we want chaos and somebody that is in three or four criminal hearings? ... Or do you want to have a decent and very effective president that has gotten us through the pandemic, addressed inflation and has been a real masterclass of diplomacy with Israel? ... And if you want to be more pissed off about a $16 McDonald’s extra meal, I don’t know.” On Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM eyeing the Oval Office … “It seems kind of strange to challenge a candidate of a race that you’re not involved in. ... It’s also strange that you are going to make a very splash visit to China when the leaders are actually coming to your very own state … a couple of weeks later. Or making donations to obscure South Carolinian politicians.” On whether he’d ever run for president … “[Y]ou never go get high on your own supply. And I’m not thinking about 2028. I am only making sure to prioritize 2024.”
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | At the White House Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN are traveling to the U.S. Virgin Islands, where they will remain through the New Year’s holiday.
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Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) is among the senators who spoke to the Washington Post about the congressional response to the Sandy Hook mass shooting. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | 1. TEN YEARS LATER: WaPo’s Peter Wallsten and Paul Kane have a must-read up this morning, examining the congressional response to the Sandy Hook mass shooting in 2013, interviewing seven senators — four current and three former — on their positions and the vote on legislation that failed to break through a deadlock in D.C. The interviews with Sens. MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.), MARTIN HEINRICH (D-N.M.), ANGUS KING (I-Maine) and MARK WARNER (D-Va.), and former Sens. HEIDI HEITKAMP (D-N.D.), MARK BEGICH (D-Alaska) and MARK UDALL (D-Colo.) are remarkably candid for members of Congress with each “recanting some or all” of their previous positions and “prompting some of them to openly wonder if they allowed short-term political considerations to cloud their judgment on votes that might have saved lives.” Said Heitkamp: “I can look back and say I could have done much better at the time, and I do feel that I could have had a more honest discussion. … The Sandy Hook parents still deserve a response. And to the extent that I was part of a failure in that response, it’s a regret.” And while Bennet noted that the 2013 bill was not perfect, “when you weigh that against what we’ve experienced in the intervening years, if that were on the floor would I vote for it? Yeah. … I didn’t feel at the time like this was my issue. And I think after you experienced a decade of mass shootings, it’s everyone’s issue.” 2. PUTTING A LABEL ON IT: JOE LIEBERMAN, the founding chair of No Labels, talks to WSJ’s Molly Ball to defend his centrist organization’s push to mount a third-party “unity ticket” for the 2024 election — and his long history of eliciting dissension from his own party. “‘Right now, looking at the polling, it’s not No Labels that’s going to re-elect Donald Trump,’ Lieberman said, unwrapping a cough drop at his desk in his Manhattan law office on a chilly recent morning. ‘Right now, it looks like it’s Joe Biden who’s going to re-elect Donald Trump.’” Lieberman also says that No Labels officials have just now started to draft a list of potential contenders who they could stand up on a unity ticket. The names in discussions are “the normal suspects, and a few surprises,” he said, adding that any who have already been contacted “almost none of them say, ‘I would never do it.’” What they’re reading at No Labels HQ: “Americans sour on the primary election process and major political parties, an AP-NORC poll says,” by AP’s Nicholas Riccardi and Linley Sanders 3. SUNK OR SWAM: With less than a month to go before the Iowa caucuses, VIVEK RAMASWAMY’s campaign has “stopped spending money on television ads and does not have any TV ad reservations booked,” NBC’s Alexandra Marquez and Alex Tabet report. “As recently as the first full week of December, the GOP entrepreneur’s campaign spent more than $200,000 on TV ads. Last week, it spent just $6,000 on ads — all of it on TV — figures from the firm AdImpact show.” The campaign told NBC that it actually still is spending money on ads, just not on TV — instead focusing on mail, text and calls to allow for a “nimble and hypertargeted” ad strategy. Here’s what Ramaswamy himself said on X: “Presidential TV ad spending is idiotic, low-ROI & a trick that political consultants use to bamboozle candidates who suffer from low IQ. We’re doing it differently. Spending $$ in a way that follows data…apparently a crazy idea in US politics. Big surprise coming on Jan 15.” 4. RUNNING TO STAND STILL: And then there’s ASA HUTCHINSON, who “may be the most stubborn of all” the GOP presidential hopefuls as he languishes in every poll, misses out on the debate stage and struggles to register consistent headlines among the crowded field, our colleague Natalie Allison writes from Portsmouth, New Hampshire. “His candidacy is testing the limits of just how long a dignified, accomplished conservative — the kind who brought a southern state’s Republican Party into relevance — can withstand rejection from his own party’s base. And it’s all in the hope that somehow, some way, his message will break through.” Says Hutchinson: “You’re asking me about risk of embarrassment? People have risked their lives for the country. Am I supposed to worry about whether I’m going to be embarrassed in a contest, politically? I think our country is more important.”
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce:   | | | 5. THE POST-DOBBS REALITY: “‘Pregnancy’ used to be the focus in abortion local news stories. Now, it’s ‘vote,’” by Jessie Blaeser: “To examine the reaction to the court’s ruling, POLITICO compiled more than 15,700 local newspaper articles that mention abortion published in states where abortion is banned or restricted past 15 weeks of pregnancy. “This analysis captures what happened after the explosive decision reshaped health care policy and reignited a long-deadlocked debate over medicine, gender, sexual autonomy and the law. On the week in June 2022 of the Dobbs decision, which gave states broad power to restrict abortion, there was an equal amount of political and health coverage of abortion. Politics has dominated ever since.” 6. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Israeli forces “launched heavy strikes across central and southern Gaza overnight and into Wednesday after broadening its offensive against Hamas to more areas where the military had told Palestinians to seek shelter earlier in the war,” AP’s Najib Jobain, Wafaa Shurafa and Samy Magdy report from the Gaza Strip. Yesterday, Israeli officials “took an Egyptian proposal to end the war with Hamas to a wider group of ministers as domestic pressure grows to secure the release of hostages and regional powers look for a solution to end the fighting in Gaza,” WSJ’s Omar Abdel-Baqui, Dov Lieber and Carrie Keller-Lynn report. Related read: “Skepticism Grows Over Israel’s Ability to Dismantle Hamas,” by NYT’s Neil MacFarquhar 7. THE NEWEST SENATOR: Sen. LAPHONZA BUTLER (D-Calif.) sits down with NYT’s Robert Jimison to talk about her view of Congress since she joined the ranks in October and her decision to not seek election following her appointment in the wake of Sen. DIANNE FEINSTEIN’s death. Asked why she chose to set an end date for her service, she said: “Knowing that I could do it was one question. The subsequent question had to be, did I want to do it? And I think serving in elected office is a role you have to want and you have to want deeply.” On whether Congress is fulfilling its role in society: “Um, no. The world is complicated. We are seeing the fragility of our democracy. We are experiencing those who would intend to corrupt the integrity of our institutions, who seek to divide at every opportunity. And I think that Congress is a reflection of that in so many ways.” 8. SWEET HOME ALABAMA: House Armed Services Chair MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) isn’t giving up hope that the U.S. Space Command will move to Alabama from Colorado, after Biden reversed a Trump administration decision that would have seen the shift happen this year. The way Rogers sees it, he has two options: The first is to use the next defense spending bill fight to cement the move, and if that doesn’t work, he’s banking on Trump returning to office next year and restoring his previous decision. “Rogers, in a brief interview, predicted the Alabama delegation’s fight to bring the command to Redstone will get a boost from an investigation by the Pentagon’s top watchdog into the Biden administration’s decision,” our colleague Connor O’Brien reports. 9. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: “Chinese Spy Agency Rising to Challenge the C.I.A.,” by NYT’s Edward Wong, Julian Barnes, Muyi Xiao and Chris Buckley: “Today the Chinese agents in Beijing have what they asked for: an A.I. system that tracks American spies and others, said U.S. officials and a person with knowledge of the transaction, who shared the information on the condition that The Times not disclose the names of the contracting firms involved. At the same time, as spending on China at the C.I.A. has doubled since the start of the Biden administration, the United States has sharply stepped up its spying on Chinese companies and their technological advances.”
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Jeff Fortenberry got a birthday present from the Ninth Circuit: His federal conviction for illegal campaign contributions has been thrown out. Michael Flynn’s induction into the New Hampshire hall of fame is stirring division among the state. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Laura Lott of the American Alliance of Museums … Shéhérazade Semsar … Emily Murphy … NBC’s Savannah Guthrie … Mercedes Schlapp … Kurt Volker … Andi Lipstein Fristedt … American Hotel & Lodging Association’s Jacqueline Policastro … Osaremen Okolo … Jessica McCreight Brown … Andi Pringle … Emily Hytha of Rep. Michelle Fischbach’s (R-Minn.) office … Kamau Marshall … CNN’s Tierney Sneed … Joe Harris … Josh Litten … POLITICO’s Tim Ball and Nick Vinocur … Arthur Kent (7-0) … Benji Backer of the American Conservation Coalition … Hemanshu Nigam … former Reps. Abby Finkenauer (D-Iowa), Jeff Fortenberry (R-Neb.) and Joe Walsh (R-Ill.) … Karen Hughes … Brennan Bilberry Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce: Join us for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s annual State of American Business event January 11 to discover how innovation enables businesses to serve customers, solve problems and strengthen society. Our biggest event of the year draws a virtual audience of more than 10,000 people from across the nation and around the world, from small business owners to Fortune 500 CEOs, community leaders, and policymakers. You will hear from U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Suzanne P. Clark and other leading CEOs highlighting how America’s free enterprise system is crucial for the long-term success of our country. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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