| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Erin Banco | |  With the election coming up, President Joe Biden won’t want to risk angering Dems by appearing weak on the world stage. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP | With help from Nahal Toosi Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt As President JOE BIDEN considers his next move after the drone attack that killed three U.S. troops in Jordan on Saturday, it’s likely that any retaliation from Washington wouldn’t come as a single massive show of force. “Actions may be tiered. We may see several rounds of action,” a Biden administration official, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive information, told NatSec Daily. In the White House Situation Room today, Biden met with his national security team to discuss the latest developments following the attacks, per a pool report. It’s an all-hands-on-deck effort, with an attendance sheet including national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES, Chief of Staff JEFF ZIENTS, principal deputy national security adviser JON FINER, Homeland Security Adviser LIZ SHERWOOD-RANDALL, and NSC Coordinator for the Middle East BRETT McGURK. Striking Iranian proxies aligns with what lawmakers want to see. Both Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair BEN CARDIN and Senate Armed Services Committee Chair JACK REED called for “deliberate and proportional” responses, while SASC Ranking Member ROGER WICKER added that the U.S. must strike “directly against Iranian targets and its leadership.” Lawmakers in the House and Senate Intelligence and Armed Services Committees have requested briefings from the administration about the attack. Members are focused on understanding whether the U.S. had any intelligence that warned of such an attack, the confusion that appears to have surrounded the drone when it was approaching Tower 22, and whether the administration is considering beefing up the U.S. air defense systems in the region. Biden “left our troops as sitting ducks," Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) said in a statement. "The only answer to these attacks must be devastating military retaliation against Iran's terrorist forces, both in Iran and across the Middle East." With the election coming up, Biden won’t want to risk angering Dems by appearing weak on the world stage. NSC spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters today that the election doesn’t factor into how the U.S. will respond. But U.S. strikes on Iran-backed militants — which have been happening since October — have yet to deter those groups from targeting American forces, and it’s increasingly looking like a wider war will break out, if it hasn’t already. If the Biden administration ramps up attacks on Iran-backed proxies, it's unclear what the end game would be. It’s also unclear exactly when a response will happen: “We'll do that on our schedule, on our time,” Kirby said. Gen. JOSEPH VOTEL, who served as head of U.S. Central Command from 2016 to 2019, told our own LARA SELIGMAN that Biden should send an “unambiguous” message that the U.S. holds Iran responsible. Washington should consider striking assets of value to Iran, he said, such as leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or Quds Force, or sites associated with those organizations. A U.S. strike on Iranian soil shouldn’t be off the table,” but is only one of the options that should be considered, he said. “Iran, I think, is responsible for this … Iran is always trying to push the limits as far as they can go.” The U.S. official poured cold water on a pair of alternative options the U.S. could take: Reassessing troop deployments in the region and pressuring Israel to end fighting in Gaza, since that’s what has been angering the proxy groups. But BRIAN FINUCANE, a former State Department lawyer who worked on international and national security law, told NatSec Daily that “non-military options are likely to be more effective at bringing about an end to attacks on U.S. troops.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — BLINKEN’S TRAVEL PLANS: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is likely heading back to the Middle East again, later this week, our own NAHAL TOOSI writes in. The plans are highly tentative, but Saudi Arabia, Israel, the West Bank and Egypt are the expected stops, according to a U.S. official familiar with the situation who was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue. ‘TROUBLED’ WHITE HOUSE: The White House expressed concern about 12 Israeli ministers attending a conference where they advocated for rebuilding Israeli settlements in Gaza and encouraging the displacement of Palestinians, Axios’ BARAK RAVID reports. Israel's far-right Security Minister ITAMAR BEN-GVIR was in attendance, urging Jewish settlers to return to Gaza and telling the audience that “we need to return home and control the land." His remarks drew widespread condemnation from Palestinian groups. “This rhetoric is incendiary and irresponsible and we take [Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU] at his word when he says that Israel does not intend to reoccupy Gaza,” an NSC spokesperson told Axios. The spokesperson stressed “The U.S. does not support an Israeli reoccupation of Gaza.” A FEW BAD APPLES: The U.N. Relief and Works Agency shouldn’t be entirely dismissed after it was found that several of its employees aided Hamas’ attack on Israel, NSC spokesperson Kirby told reporters today. "Let's not impugn the good work of a whole agency, because of the potential bad actions here by a small number,” he said. Kirby noted that about a dozen employees were found to have participated in the attack, but there are some 13,000 UNWRA employees in Gaza alone. The U.S. suspended funding for the agency pending the results of an investigation into the matter. His remarks followed U.N. chief ANTÓNIO GUTERRES pleading with donor countries to keep the U.N.’s Palestinian relief agency financially afloat after governments suspended funding amid the allegations, our own SARAH WHEATON reported Sunday. The agency’s current funding will not carry it through next month, he said. EYES ON SYRIA: A U.S. patrol base in al-Shaddadi, Syria, was attacked this morning, marking the 165th time troops have been hit in Iraq and Syria since Oct. 17, according to Lara. The attack comes as Syrian state media reports that an Israeli airstrike on a suburb of Damascus targeted Iran-backed groups in the area and that several people were killed. A significant number of members of Lebanese Hezbollah, an Iran-backed terrorist group, operate in Syria and have hideouts near the Syrian capital. Israel and Hezbollah have clashed for weeks on Israel’s northern border. In an attempt to prevent a wider regional war, U.S. officials have urged Netanyahu and his war cabinet to refrain from carrying out attacks against the Iranian-backed group in Lebanon. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | WHAT WOULD HALEY/TRUMP DO: GOP presidential candidates NIKKI HALEY and DONALD TRUMP both blasted Biden for not responding successfully deterring Iranian proxies following the strike in Jordan. “The very first strike that hit, you punch and you punch back hard. What they should be doing is going after every ounce of production of those missiles. Wherever those missiles are, you take that out” with strikes, Haley told CNBC this morning, In a trio of Truth Social posts on Sunday, Trump said that Biden’s “weakness and surrender” led to the attack on American troops in Jordan, repeating his assertion that, under his administration, Tehran didn’t have the funds for its proxy groups due to U.S. sanctions. He also said Washington must project strength, though he didn’t call for strikes against Iran. “This terrible day is yet more proof that we need an immediate return to PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, so that there will be no more chaos, no more destruction, and no more loss of precious American lives,” Trump wrote. That sentiment lines up with Trump’s isolationist beliefs that the U.S. shouldn’t become more entrenched in conflicts. But suggesting that the Pentagon shouldn’t retaliate with force against Tehran following deadly strikes on American soldiers would undoubtedly frustrate hawkish Republicans.
| | FICK’S FOCUS: The U.S. cyber ambassador is using a trip to the Pacific this week to urge nations there to not use Chinese equipment for critical undersea communications cables, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). NATHANIEL FICK, the ambassador at large for the State Department’s Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy, will spend the week traveling around Australia and Fiji, with the trip kicking off today and running through Friday. Fick told Maggie ahead of his trip that a big focus will be promoting the security of undersea communications cables that link the South Pacific to the rest of the world, and on making sure these nations are working with trusted vendors in laying or enhancing cable systems. “Telecom … that's the last two miles of connectivity for people globally, but the 10,000 miles before that generally runs under the ocean via undersea cable,” Fick told Maggie.
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here. | | | | | | | | HAMAS’ HANDIWORK: Israeli military and intelligence officials found that a significant number of weapons that Hamas used in its Oct. 7 attack came from the Israeli military itself, The New York Times’ MARIA ABI-HABIB and SHEERA FRENKEL report. New intelligence shows that the militant group, however, has stolen weapons from Israeli bases and been able to build rockets and anti-tank weaponry out of the thousands of munitions that failed to detonate when Israel shot them into the territory, weapons experts and Israeli and Western intelligence officials told the Times. The failure rate on some of Israel’s munitions could be between 10 and 15 percent, the experts and an Israeli official said. A single 750-pound bomb that fails to detonate could be turned into hundreds of rockets or missiles. “What is clear now is that the very weapons that Israeli forces have used to enforce a blockade of Gaza over the past 17 years are now being used against them,” the Times writes. KIM’S TEST: North Korean leader KIM JONG UN oversaw test firing of new cruise missiles that are designed to be launched from submarines, The Associated Press’ KIM TONG-HYUNG reports. South Korea said it had detected North Korean cruise missiles near the eastern port of Sinpo on Sunday. The test, reported in North Korean state media today, appears to be a part of its attempt to develop the capability to launch nuclear strikes from underwater. AUSTIN-PERSON: DefSec Austin returned to work at the Pentagon today, the DOD announced. He had been working from home for the past two weeks following a stay at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center related to prostate cancer. Read: U.S. weapons exports up 50 percent in 2023 as Washington challenges Russia, China by our own JOE GOULD and PAUL McLEARY
| | | |   | | | | | EYE ON ISRAEL ASSISTANCE: Democratic lawmakers are seeking answers from the Biden administration over its decision to greenlight a pair of recent arms sales to Israel without congressional approval, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports. Nineteen Democrats called the State Department’s decision to unilaterally approve two emergency sales to Israel move "highly unusual" in a letter sent to Secretary of State Blinken on Friday and obtained by Connor. It highlights a growing divide among Democrats, as progressives especially criticize how Biden has responded to Israel’s conduct in the Gaza war. The lawmakers pressed for details about why the emergency sales — which don’t require congressional approval — were needed, and whether the administration took any steps to mitigate civilian harm. "It is essential for Congress to be able to conduct oversight of these arms transfers and determine whether they are consistent with humanitarian principles and U.S. law, and whether they advance or harm U.S. national security," the lawmakers wrote.
| | U.K. K-O: Britain imposed fresh sanctions on senior Iranian officials aimed at tackling what London says is a threat to the U.K.'s domestic security, our own ANDREW McDONALD reports. Seven people, including some senior Iranian officials, and one organization are being hit by the curbs, which include asset freezes and U.K. travel bans. The Foreign Office said the sanctioned Iranian officials are members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. PULSING PUTIN: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN is all but certain to win reelection in March as he strengthens his authoritarian grip on the country. But in recent weeks, his main opposition in the race has been gaining momentum. BORIS NADEZHDIN, a 60-year-old veteran politician with a background in physics, promises to end Putin’s “fatal mistake” in Ukraine, halt mobilization and free political prisoners, including Alexei Navalny. He also pledges to reverse anti-LGBTQ+ and military censorship laws. Many observers wonder how long Nadezhdin’s ascent can last before there’s intervention from the Kremlin, but Nadezhdin said no one from the presidential administration has so far gotten in touch with him: “It’s a sign they don’t know what to do with me,” he told our own EVA HARTOG. ICYMI — Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso quit ECOWAS bloc as West African tensions deepen by our own JONES HAYDEN
| | — Georgian Prime Minister IRAKLI GARIBASHVILI announced his resignation today amid reports that he’ll be replaced by the chairman of his ruling Georgian Dream party, IRAKLI KOBAKHIDZE.
| | — BALAKRISHNAN RAJAGOPAL, The New York Times: Domicide: the mass destruction of homes should be a crime against humanity — MASHA GESSEN, The New Yorker: Ukraine’s democracy in darkness — Defense Innovation Board: Lowering barriers to innovation study
| | — German Marshall Fund of the United States, 9 a.m.: Regulating AI in the EU's Illiberal democracies: lessons from Hungary and Poland — House Select Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party Committee, 9 a.m.: Authoritarian alignment: the CCP's support for America's adversaries — Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, 9:30 a.m.: Assessing the Dominican Republic's readiness to compete in global semiconductor and printed circuit boards value chains — House Transportation and Infrastructure Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Menace on the Red Sea: securing shipping against threats in the Red Sea — Council on Foreign Relations, 10:30 a.m.: The future of U.S.-China relations with natsec adviser Sullivan — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 10:30 a.m.: The quantum advantage: why it matters and essential next steps — House Veterans' Affairs Committee, 10:30 a.m.: The one percent: supporting America's surviving military family community — Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: Russia, Ukraine and the future of the transatlantic community — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Council on Strategic Risks, 1:30 p.m.: Kazakhstan's actions to address nuclear and biological risks Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose rounds of action against us are endless. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who solves our disputes with non-military options.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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